Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 48

Thread: Belcher on an upswing?

  1. #1
    Site Contributor

    Join Date

    Jun 2013
    Location

    Philadelphia, PA
    Posts

    1,658

    Belcher on an upswing?

    This may have been going on for a while before I noticed, but there were two Belcher lists in the top 16 (one in the top8) of the SCG Classic today, and I thought that deck had basically crossed into the realm of things that used to exist, but had become obsolete. So I checked TCDecks and it put up 3 other Top 8s in >33 person tournaments in 2016 so far, alongside 5 top 16s. That's better than the results the deck put up in the entirety of 2015 (6 T8s, 0 T16) in comparable tournaments.

    Does his have something to do with Chalice decks beating up on Force of Will decks while not getting their own disruption online as quickly? I realize that TC Decks isn't a perfect source, but it also has several league results posted. Does anyone have any insight? Is this just noise? Obviously, s/n isn't particularly high in any case, but I am curious.

  2. #2
    Member

    Join Date

    Jun 2015
    Location

    NYC
    Posts

    1,329

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    I don't think 10% of FoW decks being replaced by 10% Chalice decks makes the meta much better for Belcher. Probably makes it marginally worse.

    In any case Classics are pretty small events and the Belcher player probably only had to play 6 rounds to make that t8. The deck's a casino game and some people are gonna hit the jackpot w/ draws and matchups once in a while.

    It makes sense that it seems like it shows up more now that the prestige SCG legacy events are smaller - the deck's real enemy is playing more magic and the longer a tournament goes, the worse its results are gonna be.

  3. #3
    Site Contributor
    Quasim0ff's Avatar
    Join Date

    Apr 2013
    Posts

    1,433

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I don't think 10% of FoW decks being replaced by 10% Chalice decks makes the meta much better for Belcher. Probably makes it marginally worse.

    In any case Classics are pretty small events and the Belcher player probably only had to play 6 rounds to make that t8. The deck's a casino game and some people are gonna hit the jackpot w/ draws and matchups once in a while.

    It makes sense that it seems like it shows up more now that the prestige SCG legacy events are smaller - the deck's real enemy is playing more magic and the longer a tournament goes, the worse its results are gonna be.
    I actually disagree a lot with that sentiment.

    I think it matters, a lot. With less forces, ie turn 1 interaction, all-in RG belcher gets a lot better. A turn 1 chalice, on the draw, doesn't do anything to turn 1 16 goblins or belch you for 50.

  4. #4
    Member
    Barook's Avatar
    Join Date

    Mar 2007
    Location

    Germany, Germering, Munich
    Posts

    7,489

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    More people trying out their luck doesn't mean the deck gets better. The few people I faced in league with Belcher all had terrible records.

  5. #5

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Ever since Jarvis Yu winning GP SeaTac with Lands and the rise of Eldrazi Aggro, more and more people are sleeving up non-FoW decks like Lands, 4 colors Loam/Aggro Loam(Chalice + KotR), Eldrazi... etc. There used to be plenty of RUG Delver players, they now feel like endangered animal. I guess I would change deck if I had to play against Chalice, Lands, and Shardless decks all day as a RUG Delver player. As a result, Stifle is at all time low, at least that's my theory.

    As far as SB goes, who still run Ethersworn Canonist in their SB? Most people would either use MM, or just change that slot for something else, maybe Eldrazi hate. Also, when you are not focusing on Legacy the format because you spend your time in preparing for Invitational. Play a combo deck in a Classic post-Invitational makes a lot of sense.

    I totally just recall this rant by Cedric Philips


    https://youtu.be/i_VLFZhfrBQ

  6. #6
    Member

    Join Date

    Jun 2015
    Location

    NYC
    Posts

    1,329

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quasim0ff View Post
    I actually disagree a lot with that sentiment.

    I think it matters, a lot. With less forces, ie turn 1 interaction, all-in RG belcher gets a lot better. A turn 1 chalice, on the draw, doesn't do anything to turn 1 16 goblins or belch you for 50.
    Eldrazi is going to win the dice roll 50% of the time and as long as they mull to t1 Chalice or Thorn, they'll win practically every one of those matches. Belcher is going to win the dice roll 50% of the time, but still lose to itself. So the matchup slightly favors whatever number is bigger (% Chalice Eldrazi doesn't have or mull to a t1 lock piece and a sol land, % of the time Belcher loses to itself / can't win t1) as those are the only matches you won't win despite winning the die roll.

    Overall the difference between 60% of decks having FoW and 50% of decks having FoW is pretty marginal compared to other things (how many people are showing up with Belcher, how small the tournament is.) Even in a meta with 60%/70% FoW decks, if enough Belcher players show up to a small tournament, one or two of them is likely to win the matchup / draw lottery and do well. OTOH, If there's a 15 round tournament with literally no blue players and exactly one Belcher player, they are still extremely unlikely to T8 despite the perfect meta, since the deck is still going to lose to itself a certain % of the time, and the longer the tournament goes, the more likely it's going to do that multiple times.

  7. #7
    Force of Will is my bitch
    Finn's Avatar
    Join Date

    Sep 2004
    Location

    South Florida
    Posts

    2,979

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    I think perception always plays a role in people deciding to pick up Belcher or not. Always has. The popular belief that blue is on the outs for once gets folks figuring that THE TIME TO BELCH IS FINALLY HERE like a first date just ended.

    Anyway, this upswing should surprise nobody, and the OP generally got things correct. Good catch to spot that.
    "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job."
    "Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed often and for the same reason."
    "Governing is too important to be left to people as silly as politicians."
    "Politicians were mostly people who'd had too little morals and ethics to stay lawyers."

  8. #8
    get outta here, humanity.
    iamajellydonut's Avatar
    Join Date

    Jun 2009
    Location

    Butugychag
    Posts

    2,031

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quasim0ff View Post
    I actually disagree a lot with that sentiment.

    I think it matters, a lot. With less forces, ie turn 1 interaction, all-in RG belcher gets a lot better. A turn 1 chalice, on the draw, doesn't do anything to turn 1 16 goblins or belch you for 50.
    So, where was the upswing in Belcher when Elves was a thing?

  9. #9
    Just call me Dick.
    Richard Cheese's Avatar
    Join Date

    Feb 2011
    Location

    Your mom's house.
    Posts

    2,106

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    Eldrazi is going to win the dice roll 50% of the time and as long as they mull to t1 Chalice or Thorn, they'll win practically every one of those matches.
    Thorn is pretty bad, but Chalice@1 is by no means an automatic win against Belcher. All that cuts off is Tinder Wall, Rite of Flame, and Probe. Still leaves the majority of their mana generation and all the win conditions.
    I think the biggest thing is the deep seeded emotional understanding that the right play is the right play regardless of outcomes. The ability to make a decision 5 straight times, lose 5 times because of it, and still make it the 6th time if it's the right play. - Jon Finkel

    "Notions of chance and fate are the preoccupation of men engaged in rash undertakings."

  10. #10
    Land Destruction Enthusiast
    Megadeus's Avatar
    Join Date

    Jul 2012
    Location

    Kennesaw, GA
    Posts

    5,572

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Isn't it better to chalice 0 against belcher on the play anyway?
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Cheese View Post
    I've been taking shitty brews and tier 2 decks to tournaments and losing with them for years now. Welcome to the club. We meet for cocktails after round 6.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Top quality german restraint there.

    If I'm at the point where I'm rage quitting, you can bet your kransky that I'm calling everyone involved a cunt.

  11. #11
    Member
    Barook's Avatar
    Join Date

    Mar 2007
    Location

    Germany, Germering, Munich
    Posts

    7,489

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Cheese View Post
    Thorn is pretty bad, but Chalice@1 is by no means an automatic win against Belcher. All that cuts off is Tinder Wall, Rite of Flame, and Probe. Still leaves the majority of their mana generation and all the win conditions.
    Wouldn't Chalice @0 be better against Belcher?

    That said, a well-timed Warping Wail on Burning Wish that was supposed to grab an EtW can also wreck them. Rarely happens, but worth mentioning.

  12. #12
    Member

    Join Date

    Jun 2015
    Location

    NYC
    Posts

    1,329

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Ultimately we are talking about the motives of literally a handful of people so I wouldn't read too much into anything. I think the type of people who pay enough attention to the legacy meta enough to notice the some small % increase in its viability probably doesn't have a lot of overlap with the type of person who actually plays Belcher. If you're a good player you still are better off not playing Belcher at a longer tournament, even in relatively favorable metas.

    That's true Richard and Chalice on 0 might actually be better, depending on their hand. You have the account for the fact that in a blind situation an Eldrazi player will Chalice on 1, and in a situation where they know the matchup (so all g2, g3s) they'll Chalice for 0.

    Still, Eldrazi has lots of relevant plays (t2 TKS if Belcher doesn't win t1, Trinisphere and Revoker in some builds.) I don't know if anyone has extensively tested the Eldrazi vs Belcher matchup, someone could probably code a computer program to do it. Still, I would guess it's pretty 50-50. Why do you think Thorn is bad? Do you mean just as a card or in the matchup? It seems far better than Chalice.

  13. #13

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by iamajellydonut View Post
    So, where was the upswing in Belcher when Elves was a thing?
    Hiding from the 60-75% of the meta which was playing blue.
    Supremacy 2020 is the modern era game of nuclear brinksmanship! My blog:
    https://fieldmarshalshandbook.wordpress.com

    You can play Lands.dec in EDH too! My primer:
    http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/t...lara-lands-dec

  14. #14
    Force of Will is my bitch
    Finn's Avatar
    Join Date

    Sep 2004
    Location

    South Florida
    Posts

    2,979

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Iatee, I'm not guessing that perception is a big factor. I know from experience that it is. And a 10% difference in FoW is enormous, BTW.
    "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job."
    "Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed often and for the same reason."
    "Governing is too important to be left to people as silly as politicians."
    "Politicians were mostly people who'd had too little morals and ethics to stay lawyers."

  15. #15
    Just call me Dick.
    Richard Cheese's Avatar
    Join Date

    Feb 2011
    Location

    Your mom's house.
    Posts

    2,106

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    Wouldn't Chalice @0 be better against Belcher?

    That said, a well-timed Warping Wail on Burning Wish that was supposed to grab an EtW can also wreck them. Rarely happens, but worth mentioning.
    Oh for sure, but I doubt most players are going to sit down and drop Chalice@0 on turn 1 against an unknown opponent. Once you know they're on Belcher, I think 0 is definitely the correct play, although that still gives them a huge amount of leeway. Thorn is still the best thing Eldrazi can do, as most of the Red rituals are shitty and only net 1 mana. The problem with Warping wail is that it costs mana, which is a pretty big downside against Belcher.
    I think the biggest thing is the deep seeded emotional understanding that the right play is the right play regardless of outcomes. The ability to make a decision 5 straight times, lose 5 times because of it, and still make it the 6th time if it's the right play. - Jon Finkel

    "Notions of chance and fate are the preoccupation of men engaged in rash undertakings."

  16. #16
    Member

    Join Date

    Jun 2015
    Location

    NYC
    Posts

    1,329

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Again, we are talking about a handful of people. If we want to know why the handful of people who played it at the last Classic played it, we could probably find literally every one and ask them.

    But Belcher remains a t2.5 deck even in a 50% FoW world and nobody who actually wants to win a big tournament would ever show up with it. There is a difference between 'real' metashifts (generally the result of legacy spikes moving from one T1 blue deck to another) and 'a few more people who only own Belcher decided to show up today' + 'a few people were tired and decided they were too lazy to play their real deck'.

    Let's assume a Belcher player needs to hit a string of 6 non-FoW players to T8 an event (unrealistic since Belcher can beat blue decks and loses to itself a certain % of the time vs non-blue). In any case I would imagine the difference between there being 2 and 4 Belcher players at a 6 round event is far more meaningful than the difference between FoW decks being 50% or 60%. Anyone want to do the math?

    And like I said before, tournament length matters a lot. High variance decks are best suited for spiking super small tournaments. Whatever the above math is, it's gonna get pretty bleak by the time you hit a 10+ round tournament. I think this element of legacy is probably under-appreciated, that tournament length itself has a pretty significant effect on the meta and on results. Low variance decks are always going to do better at larger events over time and high variance decks are always going to do better at smaller events.

  17. #17
    plays Mountains
    Ace/Homebrew's Avatar
    Join Date

    Mar 2011
    Location

    Philadelphia Area
    Posts

    2,257

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    There is a difference between 'real' metashifts (generally the result of legacy spikes moving from one T1 blue deck to another) and 'a few more people who only own Belcher decided to show up today' + 'a few people were tired and decided they were too lazy to play their real deck'.
    With the drop in Legacy support by SCG, and the shift by Wizards towards Modern, aren't smaller tournaments an even larger part of the 'real' meta? Aren't shifts in these smaller events a component of 'real' metashifts? Why wouldn't a smart player take advantage of a perceived drop in FoW prevalence to win a >100 player tourney? Just because it wouldn't win a GP?

    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    Let's assume a Belcher player needs to hit a string of 6 non-FoW players to T8 an event (unrealistic since Belcher can beat blue decks and loses to itself a certain % of the time vs non-blue).
    I'm going to assume you meant to say "can't beat blue decks".
    Aren't your assumptions a little ridiculous? Many decks only run 4 FoW as counter-magic. Others that run Daze can only use the card on the play. How far do you mulligan looking for Force + blue card before admitting they might rebuild faster than you and win anyway?

    Belcher took 14th out of 263. Twelve of the top 16 ran FoW.
    http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=14671&iddeck=108506

    Undefeated Day 1 at GP Kyoto (1943 players). The 4 other undefeated decks played FoW.
    http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=16755&iddeck=125526

    More recently, 6th out of 99. Half the Top 8 ran FoW.
    http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=18620&iddeck=141100

    One of the results that prompted the OP. Nineteenth out of 92. Half of the top 32 ran FoW.
    http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=20060&iddeck=152840

  18. #18
    Member

    Join Date

    Jul 2013
    Location

    Texas
    Posts

    1,184

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    Quote Originally Posted by twndomn View Post

    I totally just recall this rant by Cedric Philips
    I thoroughly enjoyed this rant, thank you for digging it up.

  19. #19
    Member

    Join Date

    Jun 2015
    Location

    NYC
    Posts

    1,329

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    I said myself in the quote that the assumptions were unrealistic. Can't beat blue and always beats non-blue is obviously not true, but it's close enough to being true that running those statistics wouldn't be nonsense. In fact, the % of times it actually beats FoW decks and loses to non-blue decks might even be similar enough to effectively cancel out.

    A good player wouldn't take advantage of a shift in FoW to play an insanely high variance deck, even if it's now t1.5 instead of t2.5, because a good player wants to take advantage of everything they can take advantage of. The two ways they can maximize their chances at winning the tournament are playing a true t1 deck and by outplaying their opponents. Belcher doesn't allow them to do either of these things, so it will remain a bad choice.

    For bad players looking to spike a small event, it is a fairly reasonable choice, but I think that was true before Eldrazi too. And Eldrazi is actually a better choice for doing that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace/Homebrew View Post
    With the drop in Legacy support by SCG, and the shift by Wizards towards Modern, aren't smaller tournaments an even larger part of the 'real' meta?
    This is a good point actually. I guess, rather, there are multiple 'real' metas (large gp/open meta, smaller local tournament metas, online metas) but the small tournament meta is larger and more prominent than it used to be.

  20. #20

    Re: Belcher on an upswing?

    I always bring Belcher to my LGS when decks with FoW are a low % of the meta. However last time my opponent needed two FoWs AND and ancient grudge to beat me. Belcher is more resilient than people think.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)