3 Caverns:
A thing of the past, before it was necessary in winstagator lists in a DRS world because you needed your red for removal a lot more. I believe it was correct then.
Here is my result to back it up: http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18699&d=316734
Now that the meta has shifted 4 Caverns is correct since you can wait longer on your removal. Yes Mogg Fanatic also helps and is a good card however the case is moot as, again, early removal is not as needed.
Chainwhirler Vs Sharpshooter:
I run both mainboard, none side. 1 Chainwhirler, 1 Sharpshooter, 1 prospector. Prospector enables both of these dudes and in conjunction they are insane. This lets late game matrons have better options.
Here is the goblin deck that topped the classic in Worchester.
http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/122383
Notables:
4 Piledrivers
1 Kiki-Jiki
1 Krenko
3 Tarfire
Sharpshooter over Chainwhirler
4 Thorns in SB
SCG uploaded this vs video with goblins today too http://www.starcitygames.com/article...-Miracles.html
He ran fetches with no dual splash to target...ok? I feel like this is just wrong with Stifle coming back. Even when I ran a splash, the reshuffle after a big ringleader hit was nice, but that's not why I would want to run fetches.
Still awesome to see the deck perform well in this large a field.
Dont think he did it for that reason, mainly to thin deck for better hits off ringleader, and draw's. I just wonder if no chainwhirler and 0 Mox is good? I'll def be running this list just to practice it out.
Isn't getting a fetch stifled better than a matron or Ringleader trigger stifled? I mean, obviously not if it's your ONLY land, but early you can play around Stifle pretty easily, and I do like the idea of thinning the lands regardless of duals. Personally I'm not going to play chrome Mox or Mono-Red. I like black and green both in my list.
I don't know many people who play any number of moxes on here. What are you trying to cheat out? The only thing I could think of is blood moon and we dont want that in our main deck.
I like chainwhirler a lot. Skirk Prospector helps cast him as well and is better in the deck than a mox imo.
"Deck thinning" as a reason to run fetches has already been refuted so many times, I don't see the point in commenting on it. Getting an early land drop stifled is horrible, and can back breaking since they are usually going to have a counterspell for Vial. All things being equal and no special corner scenarios, getting a fetch stifled is just worse than a matron or ringleader and plays right into their gameplan of mana denial. Establishing your manabase against RUG is pretty important. Getting matron/ringleader stifled you at worse have a body to chump goyf. Getting one of your early land drops stifled is like getting timewalked by your opponent. A lot of games against RUG are you either making land drops and just wisely using your resources, playing a grindy ass game, or you get Vial resolved and if it's postboard, praying they don't find ancient grudge and ride that vial to the promised land. A resolved vial is immense in this matchup. Same goes with drawing caverns.
If they are leaving a U up at the end of their turn, I just assume they have stifle (spell pierce/snare usually does fuck all against most of our cards). Sometimes you can play around it, sometimes you are forced to play into it, that is just what RUG does.
Honestly, the best feeling of having them use stifle is when they stifle our wasteland to protect their own mana. This usually means they're on the backfoot and let's not forget, they play a very, very tight mana base that can just fold to double wasteland some games.
Then is it worth commenting back about it? People do have different opinions, you are fully entitled to your opinion, the same as me. I've read the arguments, and feel one way, it sounds like you have and do not. Okay.
Thanks for the insights, I haven't had a chance to play goblins in this particular matchup.Getting an early land drop stifled is horrible, and can back breaking since they are usually going to have a counterspell for Vial. All things being equal and no special corner scenarios, getting a fetch stifled is just worse than a matron or ringleader and plays right into their gameplan of mana denial. Establishing your manabase against RUG is pretty important. Getting matron/ringleader stifled you at worse have a body to chump goyf. Getting one of your early land drops stifled is like getting timewalked by your opponent. A lot of games against RUG are you either making land drops and just wisely using your resources, playing a grindy ass game, or you get Vial resolved and if it's postboard, praying they don't find ancient grudge and ride that vial to the promised land. A resolved vial is immense in this matchup. Same goes with drawing caverns.
If they are leaving a U up at the end of their turn, I just assume they have stifle (spell pierce/snare usually does fuck all against most of our cards). Sometimes you can play around it, sometimes you are forced to play into it, that is just what RUG does.
Honestly, the best feeling of having them use stifle is when they stifle our wasteland to protect their own mana. This usually means they're on the backfoot and let's not forget, they play a very, very tight mana base that can just fold to double wasteland some games.
Guys, let's keep it cool, shall we? =)
And I agree that thinning the deck might be a bad choice for different reasons, but argumenting and talking about it time to time won't hurt, since MtG is a game that evolve often. We might even consider that by playing fetches, your opponent is likely to think you side W or B, and MIGHT play / sideboard differently. Not particularly spectacular, but....
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If I edit a post without an explanation, I am just correcting typos and / or formatting.
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There is a lot of info floating around on this forum, and on other webpages as well, regarding the subject. By this point claiming that fetchlands offer fairly negligible deck-thinning is not opinion anymore, as there is empirical data out there to prove it. Does fetching for a basic land thin your deck? Yes, you are shaving off a land. Will this translate into CA for you? Not necessarily. I urge you to read this article http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/print.asp?ID=3096, which goes in depth on the subject. Basically though fetchlands suck for thinning. If Goblins ran any, and I mean any, effects that depended on the GY (Lavamancer, Angler, Brainstorm, etc) then there would be a reason to run fetchlands. If it ran a second color then that would also obviously be a reason to run fetchlands.
Running fetchlands in a mono-colored deck for mana-fixing in a unknown meta that has Stifles lurking the corners like sharks in reefs? No thanks.
Um, I thanked him.
I guess I don't have the ability to inflect a politically correct tone into my posting, but for the second time (and recently) on this thread now, I've been told I am coming across as upset in some regard. I am not upset nor am I trying to condescend or offend. Maybe I need to just put this in my sig or something...
Thank you for sharing the article, I have never read this before and have never seen data on this. It's nice that someone did that, and I appreciate your sharing it.
I read other articles and opinion pieces, didn't have the math, not good enough at extropolating from data myself to do the work.
Again, apologies for the way my tone comes across in the posting, it's not intended to inflect in a derogatory way.
Hypergeometric calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculat...geometric.aspx
Feel free to plug in numbers assuming fetches and no-fetches.
I played around with it again today, comparing Ringleader reveals of a 60 card deck vs a 56 card deck (a proxy for a hardcast T4 Ringleader after 4 fetches). It's not the exact probabilities but it's fucking close enough. An interesting thing I found was that no-fetches deck had about a 30% chance of drawing 3 or 4 off Ringleader, whereas 4 fetches deck increased those odds to about 37%. So a 7% higher likelihood of drawing 3 or 4 off Ringleader assuming 4 fetches first, versus no fetches at all, which means you are roughly 20% more likely to draw 3 or 4 off 4 fetches versus drawing 3 or 4 off no fetches. That's a pretty minor benefit to pay 1/5 of your life for.
It's about the same cost (in life) as drawing an extra card off Sylvan Library. Except without the guarantee of actually getting an extra card.
Did not mean to come off as a dick dismissing fetches, but I was just under the assumption most people are aware of the math that's been presented. Not really a goblins thing, more like a general magic thing that people who run fetchlands should be aware of.
Anyways, the deck just top 4'ed a huge tournament with maybe not the most ideal mana base. There's been a lot of takes on the deck that has been generating results, and I think with both Death and Taxes making a big comeback as well along with the printing of the garbage man, I think we'll be a contender for the foreseeable future. Let the haters sleep on us.
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