For the sake of future review of the thread:
------------------ This is when the DRS / Probe Bans hit ------------------------
Naive, Immediate Impression:
(Please forgive any sloppy reasoning here; this is still very new as of the time of me writing this)
The change would seem Neutral to Bad for us. Besides the potential waning of some good-matchups (we'll have to see where it all goes), the three immediate issues I foresee are a potential resurgence of Lands in particular (1), an increased representation of Wasteland Tempo in general (2), and the potential return of Hard Grave-Hate (3).
(No certainty these three things will happen, just trying thinking ahead for the practice of it)
(1) Lands first; If traditional Lands decks end up moving up the ladder in the aftermath of this shakeup, it's not good news as I believe all currently established variations of this deck have some problems with the match-up. I believe Mono-White has typically been the stronger set-up against this opponent. It's not all roses, however, as the Mono-White builds have a notably higher CMC Curve, and despite the more resilient mana-base, realistically adding just a few plains and no fetches to the mix does not make it that much more resilient, so the points you're bettering yourself in the matchup are marginal. Still, this is definitely points to Mono-White. (Or perhaps W/B to incorporate Dark Confidants once again and generate some value off of a potentially smaller mana-base? Fetches are decent against Wasteland too.)
(2) Wastelands increasing in general is always something we have to respect with this deck, even if the matchups are otherwise favorable. This definitely makes me like the idea of Mainboard Karn a little less though, as I don't feel a desire to increase the count of 4-CMC Threats in the deck. Still, along a similar axis to Lands, this does make me like plains a bit more, so I think this is points to a build like UW, which can reasonably incorporate plains while being a bit lower curve than Mono-White. (Also Sai would likely match up better against plentiful removal than the Dark Confidant mentioned in the previous concern)
(3) Hard Grave-Hate out of the sideboard is my third big concern. This is the pressure that makes me more want to stay on the path I'm already on, trying to slam the Combo for an easy win Game 1, and then turning hard into a fair-game post-board while leaning on Tutors to force my opponent to constantly respect the combo while boarding in cards that are generally useless against my A-Plan.
I kind of wish my first-take on this change pointed in a clearer direction. Still, I think it serves as a naive signpost for how to begin adapting to the meta as it shifts on us in the wake of this morning's B&R announcement. I think if you're worried about Lands, you may want to push your deck more towards the Mono-White builds that have been listed in this thread (or perhaps W/B to also lower the curve?), I think if you're worried about tempo Wastelands you may want to push your deck more towards the UW style ChemicalBurns has been developing, and I think if your concern is a resurgence in Hard Graveyard Hate that a Humans build is the style of list best set up to play into that.
If all three come to pass my first personal reaction is to stay on Humans as to avoid Concern (3) while also keeping Dark Confidants to play through scarce mana-resources, but given the time that I've put into iterating on it already, it will take me a while to feel confident that my reasoning is sound, and not just personal bias. It certainly smells like it could be bias. The tradeoff of this is I'm definitely leaving myself more exposed to Lands if its representation spikes, so perhaps what I really need is a stronger board-plan for the matchup if Lands numbers tick up. The alternative on a UW or Mono-W build I think becomes an issue of where do you find the sideboard space to do everything your sideboard is doing now, plus also being advantaged both pre-board and post-board against decks bringing in hard grave-hate against you.
Still, the magnitude to which any of this comes to pass isn't completely knowable 3 hours after the announcement; just gut reaction.
EDIT: Oh, also, Concern (4) - Increased Representation of Counterbalance?
I agree with most everything you stated here. Just to add my 10 cents into the mix.
1) I have a hard time believing too many people are going to buy into Lands with a $3000 card in the deck. I expect to see more Aggro Loam and Maverick.
2) If Lands does become a force again, Sai builds seem optimal IMO (chump blockers).
3) Wasteland decks do worry me, perhaps we go into a build with signets, talismans or chromatic stars if it becomes a major problem (seems bad)?
4) What graveyard hate do you expect to see more of? The only troublesome piece I plan on really seeing more of is Leyline.
Everything I said here may be incorrect or biased, but just my thoughts.
Once you go Legacy...
I only added 2 cents, so you're already outweighing my initial opinions 5 to 1.Originally Posted by Manroe
Card Availability and Budget Constraints are always hard to account for how they will affect the meta. Plenty of us struggle to get by and plenty of us are millionaires; it's structure of the society we live in. Still, at the very least you're probably right in that to whatever degree it exists, budget and availability constraints on the format will move people away from Lands and not onto it. (And I do feel much better about being on a Humans build in the face of the Aggro Loam and Maverick Matchups. They're not the strongest matchups but the tutors can at least be leveraged to bring in some particularly powerful tools)
Still, let's be real, Lands is a popular deck, and I do think there are a fair number of people right now who have it sleeved who simply haven't been playing it. (Full disclosure: I'm one of them)
An interesting thought. I was thinking that Karn/Confidant were better in that scenario as they dug deeper and wide-boards were susceptible to Tabernacle. Without testing though I could be wrong. Still, if UW actually proved to be better in the matchup, it would seem to me that upcoming meta shifts might actually be pushing AWAY from a Mono-W build, which while it may prove true, at the very least seems counter-intuitive.
I've played around with Signets and other Mana-Rocks before, as an attempt at insulating the deck against both Wasteland and Blood Moons. When I discovered how well insulated the deck already is against Blood Moon even without any basics, I stopped experimenting with them. I mean, it's certainly something worth testing if the problem becomes overwhelming, but the deck already leans towards having too much air in it, and Mana-Rocks qualify as "more air".
I'm not quite sure; there's a dynamic tension I haven't actually seen played out before between cards like Silent Gravestone which serves multiple roles, and decks like Bizarro Stormy leaning on Shallow Grave style effects that get around it.
What I do suspect though is that the first domino to fall might be a general increase in Combo decks incentivizing Reanimator to go back to slower, UB builds. This makes Surgical Extraction weaker while increasing the need for Graveyard hate. I'm not sure how that plays out, but it seems like the recipe for the increased representation of one form of harder grave-hate or another.
Since we're here trying to predict if Lands will become more prevalent in the new meta, it's worth sharing that PVDR just posted this article on Channel Fireball, for whatever you think of the argument he presents
It might seem weird to peg Lands as a loser, since it’s a deck that had a bad matchup versus Gitaxian Probe, uses the graveyard, has Wasteland, and didn’t play Deathrite Shaman. At first glance, it looks like things just got a lot better for it. But I don’t think they did.
Lands preyed on the Delver/4-color decks, and those decks will be much less popular now. At the same time, Lands usually had a bad matchup versus the decks Delver preyed on. If those decks (e.g. Belcher) are unleashed, it’s bad news for Lands.
On top of that, Lands did care about Deathrite Shaman, but it will care even more about the cards that people will put in their sideboard to make up for the fact that they have no Deathrite Shaman anymore. When I think of graveyard hate that I’ll have to play more of now, the card that comes to mind is Surgical Extraction, which happens to be excellent against Lands.
Because of this, I think Lands is actually in a worse spot than it was before, though it is by no means a bad deck.
That being said, I'm skeptical of his argument that this will lead to an increase in Surgical Extraction. I don't know where the format could shove more Surgical Extractions in, frankly. The card was already absurdly prevalent.
I think my big fear for this archetype is that bigger graveyard hosers - RiP/Leyline of the Void, etc. - are going to be more prevalent in people's sideboard. This really nukes, in particular, the card Auriok Salvagers in post-board games. Sure, people were boarding in GY hate against us, but most of these were things like Surgical that still let us accrue advantages via looping Baubles, triggering Mentors more etc. As such, I think post-board it is really pertinent we have some form of grind engines, and ideally have them be of varied forms. I fear for mono-White a little bit because its only engines were really Karn and Salvagers, and Salvagers seems much less reliable. I think UW/WB and Humans have a little better chance, because they have either Sai or Bob as other engines to keep the gas flowing, in addition to Karn.
That being said, Mono-White's more secure mana base is even more pertinent, because I expect more Lands (I kind of disagree with PVDDR here) and also a lot more Stompy decks to destroy the level 1 Blue decks (RUG Delver, Miracles, etc.). Mono-White also has benefits against D&T and Maverick.
Actually, with all this info in mind I actually think WB is probably the best way to take the deck, maybe.
4 Monastery Mentor
4 Dark Confidant
4 Auriok Salvagers
4 Walking Ballista
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Urza's Bauble
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Mox Opal
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Ancient Tomb
2 City of Traitors
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Ancient Den
3 Vault of Whispers
1 Karakas
1 Inventors' Fair
Sideboard
2 Warping Wail
2 Seal of Cleansing
1 Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Engineered Explosives
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Kitesail Freebooter
2 Sanctum Prelate
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
This has been my growing understanding throughout the day as well. 4 Confidant is definitely where I want to remain. The WB list you posted though is running 0 Plains / Fetches, so given that I share Kaono's opinion on Artifact Lands and Mox Opal, I don't really see a reason not to run a Humans manabase. Slightly improved access to natural white and that extra few percentage on Mox Opal doesn't seem worth not running whatever package of Humans one happens to identify as ideal.
I'm with you on 4x Confidant, but what's the argument for straight W/B if you're not in it for fetch/basic protection? Do you value the artifact lands that highly? 7 is ... a lot, especially with only 1 Karn. As Kaono pointed out, Mox Opal is hardly a challenge to turn on even with 0 Artifact Lands, and these are lands that are even more vulnerable than other non-basics. It doesn't seem to be for anything out of the board, as Seal of Cleansing seems hardly preferable over Warpriest of Thune, which can be uncounterable and provide a clock. Can you sell me on the list you posted a bit? 7 Artifact Lands with no obvious payoff for them is a very loud choice, and I may just 'behind the times' here.
EDIT:
I would not be shocked if you were right and he was wrong. (EDIT: But he's not alone in that prognostication, and I believe a fair amount of it hinges on what kind of Combo sees a resurgence without Grixis holding it in check.)
Last edited by Rationalist; 07-03-2018 at 12:07 AM.
I'm just throwing ideas on to the wall - could very well be right that no artifact lands is good. I was aiming to increase the probability of turn one Bob (because with artifact lands, Opals are an easier t1 source of mana) but I honestly have less experience with Bob-based builds than yourself and am happy to take your word for it. You are likely right, if you are running such an unstable mana base, you might as well just play the Humans build if Mox Opal is an non-issue.
That being said, I have been pleasantly surprised with how great UW has been with artifact lands (4 Seat, 4 Den). Mana felt a lot smoother and Opals did a lot of work.
Surgical Extraction and Faerie Macabre will remain the most popular SB graveyard hate due to the former's synergy with Snapcaster and the latter vs revealed Chancellors, and we still get to play around those with one extra mana when going off. I think we'll be playing our own Leylines in the SB though.
I've been bringing in Sorcerous Spyglass vs Wasteland decks already, and will keep doing so. 4x Mox Opal and 8x sol lands seem even more important now. I don't want to be adding fetches to the deck in the face of RUG Delver's return.
The Karn beatdown plan is so much better than the Dark Confidants he replaced when Dominaria came out - I can't see going back. There will still be very few answers for Karn or our 4-cmc, 4-toughness Salvagers. I'm surprised by the lack of 4x Karn in others' lists. He's great in multiples.
If you do go the humans route, I really recommend you try 1-2x Hostage Takers in the board. They can grab fatties vs Show and Tell/Reanimator decks, as well as nab opposing Chalices, Pithing Needle effects, or a problem equipment. I liked her a lot when I was on WB, but haven't seen anyone mention her. You can even play a Griselbrand hostage with a couple LED's.
Thank you, but that's a little scary - feel free to be a little skeptical.
I've actually been on 9 for a while, although I don't think we can be 100% on manabases without some testing in the new environment.
When Karn is good he is amazing, and he's also flexible, so I don't disagree that I want him in the 75. The issue I've found with him is that he's not always a good independent threat, he is Legendary, and frankly 8x 4Cmc cards can prove a little greedy in a deck as Wasteland-able as we are, even in mono-colored builds, and especially with the new weather forecast saying a deluge of Wastelands is coming in (Plus a few extra Thalia's making him a 5-Drop as they work at attacking your manabase). If he keeps working for you as a 4x Maindeck in your build, by all means keep running him, but my current reasoning is that I want to win the game by 10% more consistently than by 50% when things just come together.
This is interesting. I included Hostage Takers in earlier builds, but at the time it was a bit of a ... greedy experiment, and frankly I rarely brought them in. If they become good that would amazing. Thank you for that reminder, I'll certainly keep consider testing them out again.
Last edited by Rationalist; 07-04-2018 at 10:50 AM.
Julian Knab has been comparing the current situation in Legacy to the N-Body problem, suggesting that the best way to move forward is not to overly theorycraft, but just to start with what we already have, tweak it, test and iterate. I think what might make sense, in that light, is just to begin with lists that are currently good and start to talk at a more micro-level on what changes we might want to prepare to make reactively as the new environment takes a hold.
So here is where I got after 4-5 months testing pre-Bans; let me start poking it with a stick and see which bits might be a bit soft.
(EDIT: Again, all input/ideas appreciated on how to adapt to new environment.)
4x Monastery Mentor
4x Auriok Salvager
4x Dark Confidant
2x Imperial Recruiter
2x Trinket Mage
1x Walking Ballista
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Lion's Eye Diamond
4x Mox Opal
4x Lotus Petal
4x Urza's Bauble
3x Mishra's Bauble
1x Lodestone Bauble
4x Unclaimed Territory
4x Cavern of Souls
4x Ancient Tomb
3x City of Traitors
2x Remote Farm
1x Spire of Industry
1x Inventors' Fair
SB:
1x Karn, Scion of Urza
2x Quicksmith Rebel
2x Sanctum Prelate
1x Containment Priest
1x War Priest of Thune
2x Manic Vandal
1x Magus of the Disk
1x Surge Node
1x Engineered Explosives
1x Sorcerous Spyglass
1x Tormod's Crypt
1x Spatial Contortion
Going down the list in written order, here are the pieces that read to me as the most potentially soft. Any input you could add would be helpful as I try to make sure I'm at a good starting place for a whole new big run of testing.
1x Walking Ballista
I've long been a proponent of shaving down Walking Ballista for a few reasons. An honest assessment of the deck says that Walking Ballista is included primarily as a Combo-piece, and as I was trying to highlight with some rough arithmetic a couple pages ago, it doesn't represent the bottle-neck of pieces needed to combo off (meaning extra copies aren't actually best serving the card's primary reason for inclusion - combo piece). Adding on top of this the card by its own design continues to do the same conversion of resources on later turns as the turn you cast it (if at a slightly worse rate), meaning that Walking Ballista has unusually high diminishing returns after the 1st copy, not only "unfairly" but also when used "fairly". Piling this on top of the fact that the deck contains 5 tutors in 3 flavors that can search it out as it stands means that I've long been more than content with it as a main-deck singleton.
The reason I include this as a potential "soft spot" as the meta shifts, however, is because of what I suspect will be the increasing presence of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (and also quite likely Phyrexian Revoker). Without access to a maindeck Karakas, Walking Ballista is pulling a lot of the weight in fending off these creatures pre-board, and I wonder if a single copy is still sufficient to provide Game 1 removal.
2x Remote Farm
Every single time I've played this card in a feature match on the Card Kingdom stream, someone from commentary has asked what the card was. It's certainly a card that sees no other play (although the red partner in the cycle does see 'Mono-Red Sneak' play, historically), but I've been running 2 Remote Farms for a couple months now as Sol-Lands 8 and 9, and I wanted to talk about them briefly.
Most of my early testing highlighted the manabase as the biggest immediate concern the deck had, and without Brainstorms or Ponders, the deck needed not only insulation from Wasteland but a higher % of keepable 7s. The best way I was able to accomplish this was by running 9 Sol-Lands with a 4-3-2 split between Tomb, City, and Farm. It's not only a card that provides natural White mana to make Auriok Salvagers ability to grind in isolation with a bauble stronger, but it simply represents more mana in-hand, which is exactly what the deck wants. It even allows for all Sol-Land keeps, as it reduces the amount of "Colorless" draws from 8 colorless Sol-Lands, and the tempo-loss playing it as your land Turn 1 is minimal compared to a 1-mana land in a deck with no 1-drops.
My concern with Remote Farm isn't actually Wasteland, directly. More mana packed into fewer lands is generally what I suspect I'll want moving forward, and the issues with playing a 4th City of Traitors vs Wasteland decks goes with little explanation.
The problem I'm actually thinking about is the possible upsurge in the representation of Miracles as control players move off of G/B decks and into Tundras, which would also mean a slight to moderate uptick in the number of Back to Basics to be found. The card is laughable against a Back to Basics. I should know. This has cost me a game before. At the end of the day I think that the major thing we need to be questioning right now are our mana-bases, and as the most obviously fringe part of the manabase I've been relying on, are the Remote Farms too much of a stretch in an era of increased manabase pressure? (And if so, what becomes the superior alternative in a deck this mana-hungry?)
--
Now Sideboards are probably going to undergo the biggest amount of revisions for every deck in the format, but sticking with the iterative approach for now, rather than building a new one from scratch, let me see how I can interrogate the sideboard for weak cards.
2x Manic Vandal
This isn't the most interesting soft-point, clearly, but I'm doing these in order as-written. So ... is 2x still worthwhile? They are tutorable. There are still plenty of high-priority targets I want to hit with these, but perhaps the 2nd one should be some more versatile effect. I still wish we had access to Reclamation Sage as a Human-Effect. Maybe if the mana-base ends up changing enough there's a possible future where it becomes worth looking at actual Reclamation Sage, as the 2nd Cavern/Territory can still name anything I want. I still don't think this is worth doing though, and an increased presence of Wasteland makes the proposition seem even sketchier.
1x Magus of the Disk
I've largely been playing with Magus of the Disk as a catch-all (oh, how I want a Human Rec-Sage) that can also generate card advantage specifically within the game of 'questions and answers' as it's generally permanents that get in our way, as well as deter opposing creature strategies. He is slow, removable, symmetrical, and 4-mana though. As much as I like having a tutorable "all permanents wrath" effect that can instantly clear most any board to then let me combo, he's definitely in the list of more questionable inclusions.
1x Surge Node
So. Surge Node.
It took me a LONG time to become confident that I wasn't just running this because it's cute, because the card is
(1.) Incredibly Narrow
(2.) Not Generally Playable in Magic as a Whole
(3.) Super Cute
(4.) In many ways Redundant with a much more 'Playable' card
Let's talk about it though. Opposing Chalice on 0, while you can still win through it, is very problematic for the deck without sufficient answers from the sideboard, and given that Chalice in Legacy helps define an entire archetype of decks, I think we're all on the same page here that we need to have a very good sideboard plan against this.
One of the advantages of playing the Unclaimed Territory build are that the Tutors (Imperial Recruiter / Trinket Mage) are absolutely great, particularly in a deck with no blue-cantrips. The ability to repurpose them as sideboard hate is something you have to take advantage of, and any singleton 'Trinket' has a large effect in increasing the lines available to you with Trinket Mage.
This brings us to point (4); Trinket Mage already has a tutorable answer to opposing Chalice, so why is this card not simply another EE, or something else entirely.
Well I can't answer the second point other to say "you really want to flip the Chalice match-up" and any 1-of card in the sideboard that significantly increases that percentage on its own is probably worth 1/15th of your board, but I can easily answer the first. Compared to EE, Surge Node
(A.) Represents Diversity in how you can answer a Chalice, making them harder to protect with Pithing/Revoker effects brought in against you for other reasons
(B.) You're playing with so many 0's yourself, you often Don't Want to clear the board of 0's with an EE because of the collateral damage
(C.) Surge Node is able to generate effective Card Advantage, in that it not only deals with the first Chalice, it deals with all subsequent Chalice unless the opponent wastes an answer on a card that has already taken out a Chalice.
(D.) Not only does it represent an answer to multiple Chalice across different turns, it also can generate effective Card Advantage by repurposing opposing Chalices to numbers that make them function as your own cards.
(E.) It is never not played in conjunction with Engineered Explosives, giving that card more versatility as it interacts favorably with it
(F.) Yes, it even has the ability to make opposing Aether Vials a lot more complicated to use optimally if for some other reason it comes in in a Vial match
The card has remained in my sideboard since I started testing with it not on the back of how cute it was, but because it legitimately and consistently performed well for me during test. That being said, we're here to shed our biases, and I'm not blind to the fact that the card is super-narrow ans is only there to answer one particular card (Chalice of the Void), so, if we have to name our soft-spots, I can't in good conscience not name this card as a questionable inclusion.
1x Sorcerous Spyglass
This feels like it needs to be a 2x if the meta moves like people are suggesting. That's all.
Well there you have it. That's where I'm starting from, and that's what pieces of this particular list look the most suspicious to me. If anyone has any extra insight, or wants to poke at their own WU / WB / Mono-W list that they developed from pre-ban testing, I'd be happy for the education. Other than that I guess we just wait for the bans to actually hit and then begin to test like crazy all over again.
Last edited by Rationalist; 07-04-2018 at 12:40 PM.
I understand people worrying about an increase in Lands, but I honestly think it's not going to take off in popularity beyond people who switched off from it to possibly Turbo Depths or something else going back. I don't think an increase in graveyard hate bodes well for Lands, nor does an increase in DnT, which has, over the last year or so, really figured out how to approach the matchup (honestly Recruiter made this matchup so much better because a DnT player can leave vial on 3 up and then if the opponent doesn't combo they can just use Flickerwisp on a Recruiter and grab another Flickerwisp). I think think RUG Delver with its 4-7x untargetable threats and 4x Stifles is going to keep lands at bay pretty well. Plus more Storm will definitely hurt Lands as the matchup will always be very, very difficult for them.
Last edited by cosmiccoil; 07-04-2018 at 06:41 PM.
I completely agree on the artifact lands (I run 7 in my B/W build and 8 in my U/W list).
Here is an opening line that having that many artifact lands really helps achieve:
Play artifact land, Bauble, Opal, Chalice. If it's not a wasteland deck, crack the Bauble on opponents turn.
That is a very low investment of resources and keeps a sol land unexposed to wasteland.
The redundancy is also great because it reduces the tension between maintaining metalcraft by not cracking a bauble or drawing deeper into the deck. It also keeps metalcraft enabled when wasteland is a factor by having more replacements.
It also helps drive up the size of the Karnstructs, which is a reasonable consideration.
When I was playing around with Board the Weatherlight, the increased number of artifact lands increased the probability of seeing one when I needed it.
The last benefit in U/W is being able to get either color of mana with a Trinket Mage for when the combo is in hand but there are only lands capable of producing three mana in play.
All in all, I don't really see that serious of a downside to an increased number in 2-color builds. I do think that gold lands are the only choice with 3+ colors. Obviously being able to play a fetch might insulate a land drop from wasteland, but that's about it, especially if the land being fetched is a dual anyways.
Last edited by cosmiccoil; 07-04-2018 at 06:40 PM.
Is there any chance that T1 Stifles out of RUG Delver might also push the needle away from Fetch/Dual and towards Artifact Lands in WU/WB, or am I over-extrapolating?
I don't think it's crazy to enter that into the equation. I was on a fetch build of B/W, U/W and U/B/W, and I really could not discern an advantage over either running gold lands (for the three-color build) or artifact lands. Less K-Commands (and zero turn-two K Commands) means there's less of a liability for artifact lands in two-color builds. Fetches open us up to Stifle and past the first fetch for a basic (which might be wrong in a lot of scenarios) it doesn't help that much with wasteland.
So I know this question could be dependent on hand composition and etc, but in the humans build let's say you have a t1 Dark Confidant and your opponent was on the ay and swings in with a lackey. Are you taking the chance on letting it through?
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Once you go Legacy...
I would block the lackey. A lackey that does combat damage to a player, is their strongest play.
I would lean toward not blocking, as in your hand is either garbage and you need the draws to find anything to do, or your hand is very close to comboing... and you need the draws to find the missing piece. if you have a decent hand that's about to pump out some tokens, this is when I'd make the trade.
This deck has me captivated. I'm always thinking of new things to try. In a UW artifact land version featuring Sai, is there a way to include Thoughtcast?
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Once you go Legacy...
[Important Takeaway (Humans): Beginning to suspect 1x Karn, 2x Quicksmith Rebel out of the board is a mistake, and should simply be 3x Quicksmith Rebel]
Definitely not the greatest showing Monday Night, ended up 2-2, but lessons learned. This puts me at 9-3 in the actual Monday Night events on the most recent set-up unless I'm miscounting.
Hadn't actually had a chance to play Bomberman v. RUG Delver before. Matchup seems fine. Mana denial is always a threat, but they only have so much and have trouble interacting well with the combo itself. Won G1, lost games 2 and 3, but in both of the latter games I was fishing for a missing combo piece for multiple turns that would have won the game through the presented disruption and just didn't assemble in time. Didn't get there, but nothing here seemed problematic.
Rounds 2 and 3 were Omnishow and Grixis Control. Grixis Control matches were a bit more fun, but no major notes here. Both matches were wins.
Round 4 was Death and Taxes. I had not lost the D&T matchup before to my memory and records, but they have so many tools against the deck that it had to happen eventually. Managed to take Game 1 by comboing off with Mentor as the payoff under Thalia (Loop LED at Mana Parity). Game 1 has traditionally been the harder game of the set, but even after taking it I just got blown out of the water Game 2, and after a lot of resource trading Game 3 while I was attempting to set up the combo in the background he played down a second Sword that once again matched up extremely well with the colors of my defenders and I got got by the unblockability.
Specifically the Red / Blue Sword into the Red/ White Sword to replace it felt a little nightmarish in how well they lined up against me, and I'm certainly hoping those two swords together aren't stock main-deck inclusions in this new environment. (If I was able to anticipate this, however, I could have tutored up the second Manic Vandal to answer the 2nd sword as well instead of the likely greedier Magus of the Disk. I don't know if this would have changed the outcome, but if I got to rewrite the timeline, that would probably be my first change.)
So here were my takeaways for the night:
(1) While they're not amazing matchups, neither of the two matchups that I lost tonight felt like abstract problems for the deck, and I'd happily play the matches against with little to no changes. If these are the big beneficiaries of the bannings, things don't seem that drastically different, and they both feel like they'll settle in the roughly even range. If the DnT stock list evolves in the new meta to be more problematic, or RUG Delver proves to be harder than it feels with more games under my belt, I'll reassess, but naive first impressions - I'd go out on a limb and guess there is neither cause to panic or cheer in response to the bannings on this front. (As long as Lands stays down)
(2) I feel like Karn in the sideboard should just be more Quicksmith Rebel.
Quicksmith Rebel has continually proven to be very good, and a bit of an incentive for a red-inclusive manabase. Like Karn, he's good at providing a clock. Unlike Karn, he's regularly uncounterable, provides a greater amount of reach, and as repeatable removal can answer one or more opposing hatebears which is a vital function. In a lot of the matchups where they would come in anyways, he also has the ability to generate card advantage like Karn as well. Also if D&T becomes more popular, getting a Quicksmith Rebel to stick usually ends things pretty quickly, and if they want to Revoker cards like Lodestone Bauble etc just to turn it off they're welcome to.
QR is just great, and it is becoming hard for me to generate a counter-argument in support of Karn at the Rebel's expense.
(3) I am not a superstitious man, but I will note that to memory so far this year I've had three memorable disappointing Monday Night results on this deck, my loss in all 3 of which were directly preceded by someone amicably saying something to the tune of "Oh man, I don't know how I can beat you". I'm beginning to suspect this may be some code for "I'm about to beat you".
On a less relevant and more personal note, one of my two sideboard Quicksmith Rebels, after not only eating a Swords to Plowshares before he could take over the board, was cruelly crushed by a rogue trade-binder after the 4th round. Luckily, the Promo Alt-Art Quicksmith Rebels are only 35 cents; still, he will be sorely missed and the wanton cruelty shown by his enemies (even after retiring to become a peaceful farmer, if one takes the card literally) will not soon be forgot.
I've looked at it, but couldn't make it fit in the deck. you could go a basically mono-U version - though not sure the extra card draw is as good as Mentor, and you would have way fewer naturally drawn combo hands. it's probably barely enough blue to jam some FoW in the SB though (on par with the dredge blue card count that sometimes does the same)
something like this:
1 Ancient Den
4 Ancient Tomb
4 Cavern of Souls
4 City of Traitors
4 Seat of the Synod
4 Auriok Salvagers
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Engineered Explosives
3 Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Lion's Eye Diamond
1 Lodestone Bauble
4 Lotus Petal
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
4 Sai, Master Thopterist
4 Thoughtcast
4 Trinket Mage
4 Urza's Bauble
1 Walking Ballista
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