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Thread: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

  1. #621
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    It's not the long-game value of the Sphinx that matters, and the decks that will break it in half don't care what's in the opponent's hand. It's Scry 3–12 on your first turn in decks that have to make pivotal plays on or by turn 2.
    probe is still better by a mile. i don't think it's close.
    -rob

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    It's Scry 3–12 on your first turn in decks that have to make pivotal plays on or by turn 2.
    Except it's multiple Scry 3s, which means if you find the card you want/need, subsequent scrys are going to be worse/less useful.
    Currently working on: Infinity Stompy

  3. #623

    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    Except it's multiple Scry 3s, which means if you find the card you want/need, subsequent scrys are going to be worse/less useful.
    And you end up with too many Air Elementals in your opening hand and probably mull anyway. Kinda like the same problem with serum powder, its awkward.
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    It's Scry 3–12 on your first turn in decks that have to make pivotal plays on or by turn 2.
    At what cost? If you are scrying 12, that is 4 dead cards in your opening for one, also its not an easy thing to think that your last two scrys will gain you anything. Scry 12 sounds nice, but thats unlikely to be the case much of the time. The first will likely let you keep a card, so the next 3 will in fact be a scry 2. If you keep another card it is scry one. If you ditch that you scry one again. In fact you scryed 7 at the cost of having a 3 card hand with 4 mostly unplayable cards until you can power out 4 mana.

    This seems like less of a issue that you are making out. I am not saying I do not like this card in a Blue Stompy shell, I do and I will test. But that's the only place I can see it getting value and even then not full value. It helps you out, but it plays little part in the lock. This card's Scry is not as powerful as Powders free Mull is.
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  5. #625

    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Although now that I'm thinking about it: in vintage where there's a ton more variance due to the restricted list and a ton more compact two card combos I can see it getting the axe.

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    I don't think the card will have much if any impact on eternal. And any comparisons to probe feel pretty absurd at this point in time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Cheese View Post
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  7. #627

    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    It's so much worse than probe idk why people are even making this comparison.
    The problem with saying that this is going to be some kind of busted consistency tool for Reanimator or Belcher is that
    a) If this is in your hand it's 1 resource that's not helping you enable your combo. (Okay, Reanimator plays Chancellor, but it seems like Belcher can't really afford these slots).
    b) If the main objective of your deck is to nutdraw the opp on the play then you won't have a draw step and can't even use any of the value you get off the scry.

    Ben Friedman's take on it for Shadow/Delver decks was kind of interesting but I still don't think I'm on board with that either

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    I will eat my words [EDIT: and/or a number of other things, not least my dignity] if you test this and find it wanting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    Just goldfished ten games with this list featuring the new Sphinx of Scry 3. I've spent all of 20 minutes on this:

    4x Chrome Mox
    4x Lotus Petal
    4x Summoner's Pact
    4x Elvish Spirit Guide
    4x Simian Spirit Guide

    4x Dark Ritual
    4x Cabal Ritual

    4x Balustrade Spy
    4x Undercity Informer
    4x Narcomoeba

    4x Pact of Negation
    4x Sphinx of Foresight
    4x Force of Will

    1x Street Wraith
    1x Chancellor of the Annex
    1x Cabal Therapy
    1x Dread Return
    1x Garna, the Bloodflame
    1x Laboratory Maniac
    1x Wild Cantor
    1x Manamorphose

    G1: T1 kill, Pact protected
    G2: T2 kill, Force protected
    G3: T3 kill, mulligan to 6, Force protected
    G4: T1 kill unprotected; T2 kill (Daze-proof)
    G5: Fizzle; T6 kill, Force and Pact protected
    G6: Fizzle; T5 kill, mulligan to 6, Pact protected
    G7: T3 kill, Force protected
    G8: T3 kill, Force protected (N.B.: This is the first game I got to Scry more than once off of Sphinxes. Didn't need the second one.)
    G9: T3 kill, mulligan to 5, Pact protected
    G10: T2 kill, Force protected

    20% failure rate; 20% T1 kills; 20% T2 kills; 40% T3 kills; 0% T4 kills. 30% unprotected (or Daze-proof) kills and/or fizzles; 70% protected kills.

    EDIT: I'm 90% sure Chancellor should just be Unmask. Manamorphose can probably go in place of a Bridge or another Unmask if people think it's necessary.

    EDIT again: Watch out for Flusterstorms/Mindbreak Traps.
    Last edited by Ronald Deuce; 01-07-2019 at 03:04 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by non-inflammable View Post
    If you diversified your cantrips, a chalice wouldn't be a liability.
    Quote Originally Posted by chunderbucket View Post
    You want interesting, nonbinary games? Don't make your deck so reliant on cantrips, like pretty much every above deck.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Almost everyone plays decks that are strictly worse 75s than the top decks - which most people could sleeve up if they wanted to, they just elected not to.

  9. #629
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    G1: T1 kill, Pact protected
    G2: T2 kill, Force protected
    G3: T3 kill, mulligan to 6, Force protected
    G4: T1 kill unprotected; T2 kill (Daze-proof)
    G5: Fizzle; T6 kill, Force and Pact protected
    G6: Fizzle; T5 kill, mulligan to 6, Pact protected
    G7: T3 kill, Force protected
    G8: T3 kill, Force protected (N.B.: This is the first game I got to Scry more than once off of Sphinxes. Didn't need the second one.)
    G9: T3 kill, mulligan to 5, Pact protected
    G10: T2 kill, Force protected

    How many of these games did you have it in opening hand?
    Are you expected to be on the draw each game? (Otherwise there's not a lot of value in a deck that really needs to win on turn 1.)
    -rob

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by mistercakes View Post
    How many of these games did you have it in opening hand?
    Are you expected to be on the draw each game? (Otherwise there's not a lot of value in a deck that really needs to win on turn 1.)
    I anticipated always being on the play—not to gain a timing advantage but to see whether the restructured deck would function with a smaller hand (a lack of Rogues is usually the main problem one faces). So one could read each of the fundamental turns as being a turn earlier if one were on the draw (except, obv., T1s), though I didn't want to give myself or the idea behind the build the benefit of the doubt.

    You're right that this functions a bit differently from the orthodox lists; my aim was to examine the likelihood that it could combo off with countermagic in hand rather than to try to go off immediately every game. A different set of parameters, but still one I think is worth examining in the same shell. And based on a pinpoint-sized set of data, it appears that it works.

    And before anyone asks, I realized I posted a transitional list that was incomplete (lacked a Street Wraith—oops). I just switched out a Chancellor of the Annex because I wasn't really looking at Chancellor hands as fundamentally "safe" and because I think it's the least useful piece of protection. I corrected it here and in the deck's new and developmental thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by non-inflammable View Post
    If you diversified your cantrips, a chalice wouldn't be a liability.
    Quote Originally Posted by chunderbucket View Post
    You want interesting, nonbinary games? Don't make your deck so reliant on cantrips, like pretty much every above deck.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Almost everyone plays decks that are strictly worse 75s than the top decks - which most people could sleeve up if they wanted to, they just elected not to.

  11. #631
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Idk how useful this is in Sphinx discussions but over on themanadrain someone ran a mathematical analysis of how it helps you get a single card into your hand (in that case bazzar) based on serum powder versus Sphinx. Providing it below in case that math can be helpful to this discussion (with the understanding the no legacy deck tried to single mindledly to get a single card).

    Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
    p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

    Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
    0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
    0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
    0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
    0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
    0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
    1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
    1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
    1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
    1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
    1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
    2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
    2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
    2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
    2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
    2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
    3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
    3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
    3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
    3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
    3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
    4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
    4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
    4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
    4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
    4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
    Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
    0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
    0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
    0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
    0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
    0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
    1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
    1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
    1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
    1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
    1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
    2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
    2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
    2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
    2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
    2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
    3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
    3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
    3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
    3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
    3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
    4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
    4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
    4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
    4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
    4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%

  12. #632
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    I am not saying I do not like this card in a Blue Stompy shell, I do and I will test. But that's the only place I can see it getting value and even then not full value. It helps you out, but it plays little part in the lock. This card's Scry is not as powerful as Powders free Mull is.
    I'm on board with not being on board, but could this card enable a worthwhile Temporal Mastery deck?

    Edit: Maybe pushes Modern Taking Turns into the realm of only semi-laughable?

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Cire View Post
    DATA
    Thanks for posting that, Cire!

    A couple of things that differentiate Sphinx from Serum Powder, especially regarding the decklist I posted:
    —Powder is better for finding one card, but Vintage Dredge only needs two cards to start its engines, and All Spells needs at least four.
    —Mulligans are more all-in than scries. (Obviously as a counterpoint, Sphinx is a "dead card" without Force or Chrome Mox.) All Spells had stellar mulligans back in the Probe days, but I'm interested in solidifying the deck rather than speeding it up.
    —Sphinx pitches to Force. Probe could've done the same thing, but a) it's gone now, and b) drawing cards is less useful than one would like in the deck. Seeing/filtering your topdecks, however, is helpful.
    EDIT: Crucially, you CANNOT exile a number of cards from this deck and still win the game, so Serum Powder's a no-go.

    Hope I'm not going off track with this stuff; if mods want to move this discussion (perhaps to the Rogue Hermit thread), that's great by me!
    Quote Originally Posted by non-inflammable View Post
    If you diversified your cantrips, a chalice wouldn't be a liability.
    Quote Originally Posted by chunderbucket View Post
    You want interesting, nonbinary games? Don't make your deck so reliant on cantrips, like pretty much every above deck.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Almost everyone plays decks that are strictly worse 75s than the top decks - which most people could sleeve up if they wanted to, they just elected not to.

  14. #634
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    I have a hard time deciphering the data (btw - provided by bactgudz of themanadrain), but the initial thoughts are:

    1) Sphinx is better than Powder on the draw
    2) Sphinx also doesn't exile your hand like Powder so you can run it with more fragile combos.
    3) Unlike Powder, Spinx is not a total dead card since it can be pitched to FOW, imprinted on Chrome Mox, and even played as a threat if need be.
    4) Granted (1) is only useful 50% of Game 1's, but lets say it provides a minus on the play by 10%, as long as it provides a plus on the play of 10+%, it should still overall be a positive addition.

    While people are thinking of oops or spells, I'm thinking of Breakfast. That seems like the perfect combo to help with the sphinx (i.e. fragile pieces that aren't exiled with powder, two cards that you must get in hand, running blue for FOW).

    Proposed List:

    What did I have for Breakfast?

    "Sphinx Suite"

    4 Sphinx of Foresight
    4 Force of Will
    4 Chrome Mox

    "Cephalid Combo"

    4 Nomads en-Kor
    4 Cephalid Illusionist
    4 Lazav, the Multifarious
    4 Recruiter of the Guard
    3 Narcomoeba
    1 Lotleth Giant
    1 Dread Return

    (with Sphinx you run at least 24 creature for Lotleth Giant kill)
    "Other Blue Stuff"

    4 Brainstorm
    4 Daze

    2 Open Spots
    17 Lands

  15. #635

    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    ...
    —... (Obviously as a counterpoint, Sphinx is a "dead card" without Force or Chrome Mox.)...
    There's other stuff that can recycle value for cards in hand like Brainstorm+fetch and Faithless Looting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Circe
    ...probabilities...
    I'm curious what the assumptions there are since you have to make the Serum Powder decisions before you get the scry, and there's the potential to exile Sphinxes with the powder. (The odds of getting a sphinx and a powder or two powders in the same opening 7 aren't that low.)

  16. #636
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by HdH_Cthulhu View Post
    And you end up with too many Air Elementals in your opening hand and probably mull anyway. Kinda like the same problem with serum powder, its awkward.
    How high is the probability that these Scrys leave you without Brainstorm or FoW to shuffle/pitch these Air Elementals?

    As i see it, these cards trade a virtual handcard for a T0 Scry 3 while also acting as pitch and lategame beater. If you ever found yourself mulling for FoWs or SB cards in postboard games, this card is a very legit way of increasing your odds to start a game with these outs.
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by rufus View Post
    I'm curious what the assumptions there are since you have to make the Serum Powder decisions before you get the scry, and there's the potential to exile Sphinxes with the powder. (The odds of getting a sphinx and a powder or two powders in the same opening 7 aren't that low.)
    No clue - the percentages were taken from bactgudz of themanadrain. But even there it was noted by him that powder and sphinx create two different mulligan strategies: (1) Do I max the prob I have it on the play, or (2) Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw. As such it is probably a mistake to include both in the deck.

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemnear View Post
    How high is the probability that these Scrys leave you without Brainstorm or FoW to shuffle/pitch these Air Elementals?

    As i see it, these cards trade a virtual handcard for a T0 Scry 3 while also acting as pitch and lategame beater. If you ever found yourself mulling for FoWs or SB cards in postboard games, this card is a very legit way of increasing your odds to start a game with these outs.
    BOOM. Well stated; sideboard games get a lot more consistent, especially if you're in the unfortunate situation of having lost g1 and need the right cards to nail down g2. It's like an anti-Leyline. Rather than forcing you into mulligans to find one you can actually use this as an extra 'muligan' without compromising your game plan as much.

    I'll say it again: this is an elegant, powerful card. Love it. I know this is probably a little too deep, but does this card help the mono-blue Delver fringe deck? It helps an awful lot in getting that t1 delver to flip and it's a threat that gets you outside Abrupt Decay range.

    New Domri is pretty 'meh'. Standard GR agro powerhouse, but I don't think it will make it's way outside of that format.

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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Megadeus View Post
    I don't think the card will have much if any impact on eternal. And any comparisons to probe feel pretty absurd at this point in time.
    People will try it, for sure. If it doesn't make it as a competitive card, it will awfully fucking close. Probe it is not, but the fact that it exists is a really good indication of a set of 4 mana chancellor types in each color. I'm fairly excited to see what they do with the others.
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    Re: [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica & [RNA] Ravnica Allegiance

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Safety View Post
    People will try it, for sure. If it doesn't make it as a competitive card, it will awfully fucking close. Probe it is not, but the fact that it exists is a really good indication of a set of 4 mana chancellor types in each color. I'm fairly excited to see what they do with the others.
    Let's play made up card discussion. Let's say they're all 4 Mana dudes. Any thoughts of what the other colors could possibly be? If the red one creates a red Mana like the old green chancellor would that be too good for Red Stompy?
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    Top quality german restraint there.

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