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Thread: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

  1. #41
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Three tournaments added, OP rankings updated:

    July 21, Magic Bazar Paris Monthly @ Paris, 33 players: 1.) Esperblade 2.) Humans 3.) Grixis Death's Shadow 4.) Dragon Stompy 5.) Grixis Control 6.) OmniTell 7.) RUG Delver 8.) Tempo Zoo

    July 28, Staples @ Collector Legion (Gardena, California), 46 players: 1.) Grixis Control 2.) Eldrazi 3.) Dredge 4.) Sneak & Show 5.) Esperblade 6.) Sneak & Show 7.) Sneak & Show 8.) ANT

    July 28, Millennium Games Legacy Series @ Rochester NY, 44 players: 1.) Lands 2.) TES 3.) UWr Stoneblade 4.) OmniTell 5.) Grixis Control 6.) UWr Stoneblade 7.) Lands 8.) Punishing Maverick

  2. #42
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    One tournament added, OP rankings updated:

    July 29, MTGO Challenge, 7 rounds: 1.) Grixis Control 2.) Aluren 3.) RUG Delver 4.) Miracles 5.) Miracles 6.) RUG Delver 7.) Grixis Control 8.) Miracles 9.) Soldier Stompy 10.) Sneak & Show 11.) B/R Reanimator 12.) Sneak & Show 13.) Death & Taxes 14.) Grixis Control 15.) Steel Stompy 16.) ANT
    Last edited by Scott; 07-30-2018 at 09:23 PM.

  3. #43

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    So, which deck is good against Miracles, Show and Tell, Stoneblade, Death & Taxes, Grixis Control, RUG Delver, and Chalice? Or most of it.

  4. #44

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Lava Snacks View Post
    So, which deck is good against Miracles, Show and Tell, Stoneblade, Death & Taxes, Grixis Control, RUG Delver, and Chalice? Or most of it.
    I'd be happy on Big Eldrazi vs most of those. Death and Taxes would incline me to run Ballistae in some number, would want to be on Spyglass main over 3Ball.
    Lands, MUD, Stax, and Miracles.

  5. #45
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Looks like 8+ cantrips is still the best thing to do. More sacrificial lambs to the brainstorm altar
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Cheese View Post
    I've been taking shitty brews and tier 2 decks to tournaments and losing with them for years now. Welcome to the club. We meet for cocktails after round 6.
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    Top quality german restraint there.

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  6. #46

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Megadeus View Post
    Looks like 8+ cantrips is still the best thing to do. More sacrificial lambs to the brainstorm altar
    Guess next is Terminus.

  7. #47

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Next is Show and Tell or those impossibly cheap creatures like Delver and Angler. I mean Grixis can play 20 counters, mana denial and drop 5/5 with no drawback. Curiously they are the top dogs.


    This is the base of 80% of top decks
    4 Daze
    4 Fow
    2 Pierce
    4 Ponder
    4 Brainstorm
    3/4 Preordain

    Then the finisher can be either SFM, Angler TNN, Delver, YP, Mentor, Clique (super cheap and effective creatures that donít distract your mana too much) or SnT/Sneak Attack/Reanimate

    The results depends on the variance of draws in the end. The problem? It has been like this for 10 years. The only variants are Eldrazi, BR Rea and...?
    Last edited by Poron; 07-31-2018 at 09:20 AM.

  8. #48

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    D&T, Lands, moon stompy, elves, Ö

  9. #49

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Funny, i thought we'd see more maverick..

  10. #50

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Why? Control decks have Terminus/K.Return and black has Toxic Deluge

    Maverick forte has been historically the lands are everyone is playing mana denial

  11. #51

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Poron View Post
    This is the base of 80% of top decks
    4 Daze
    4 Fow
    2 Pierce
    4 Ponder
    4 Brainstorm
    3/4 Preordain
    ...
    The only variants are Eldrazi, BR Rea and...?
    Blue penetration is high enough; you don't have to pad the numbers with incorrect facts.

  12. #52
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by LOLWut View Post
    you don't have to pad the numbers with incorrect facts.
    Sort of related tangentially, is anyone a programmer on these boards with experience programming recurrent neural networks? What would happen if you feed such a network all the top decks from the past year of tournements - what decklists would the program give out? (Related, because I'm assuming if the network sees X certain blue cards over and over, it will create a deck list with those x blue cards). I'm guessing the feed into the network will have to be curtailed (unless we want random elves/goblins etc showing up) to "blue" decks, but would be curious what blue decks the network would give out (and would also be curious on the overall input/output).

  13. #53
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Cire View Post
    Sort of related tangentially, is anyone a programmer on these boards with experience programming recurrent neural networks? What would happen if you feed such a network all the top decks from the past year of tournements - what decklists would the program give out? (Related, because I'm assuming if the network sees X certain blue cards over and over, it will create a deck list with those x blue cards). I'm guessing the feed into the network will have to be curtailed (unless we want random elves/goblins etc showing up) to "blue" decks, but would be curious what blue decks the network would give out (and would also be curious on the overall input/output).
    It'd just be all Miracles, all the time. There's a reason they should've banned Counterbalance last year. But fuck Doomsday, amirite?!
    Quote Originally Posted by non-inflammable View Post
    If you diversified your cantrips, a chalice wouldn't be a liability.
    Quote Originally Posted by chunderbucket View Post
    You want interesting, nonbinary games? Don't make your deck so reliant on cantrips, like pretty much every above deck.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Almost everyone plays decks that are strictly worse 75s than the top decks - which most people could sleeve up if they wanted to, they just elected not to.

  14. #54

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Cire View Post
    Sort of related tangentially, is anyone a programmer on these boards with experience programming recurrent neural networks? What would happen if you feed such a network all the top decks from the past year of tournements - what decklists would the program give out? (Related, because I'm assuming if the network sees X certain blue cards over and over, it will create a deck list with those x blue cards). I'm guessing the feed into the network will have to be curtailed (unless we want random elves/goblins etc showing up) to "blue" decks, but would be curious what blue decks the network would give out (and would also be curious on the overall input/output).
    Somewhat. I've had something of an ongoing project for a couple years now teaching a computer to play MTG. The projects currently on hold but I was able to identify a few successful cards and deck configurations with what I had built.

    It gets really, really complex but I'm always happy to talk about it if people are interested. Suffice it to say, I found a system which I believe works, but isn't time efficient enough to handle a big pool of cards.

    My current approach is actually a bit different, and ranks cards vs cards given criteria to create pass/fail conditions, and then uses a bit of social network analysis to create groups of core cards. The trick to this, is that it requires an absolutely immense amount of data, but should in theory be possible because it just has to parse oracle text properly. Though, such a system is only good for aggro, midrange, and control. It will not identify combos.

  15. #55
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    @Brael: that's really interesting, but I was primarily thinking that the only variables would be the card names and numbers, no need to parse oracle texts. In effect instead of a network figuring out the best deck of a certain type for a certain metagame (what I believe you're trying to do), I wanted to know if the network could figure out the most common cards and numbers based on decks that have been played within a certain time frame.

  16. #56

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Cire View Post
    @Brael: that's really interesting, but I was primarily thinking that the only variables would be the card names and numbers, no need to parse oracle texts. In effect instead of a network figuring out the best deck of a certain type for a certain metagame (what I believe you're trying to do), I wanted to know if the network could figure out the most common cards and numbers based on decks that have been played within a certain time frame.
    That's easy, you don't even need a neural network for it. A database and charting the results is enough. I don't think the results are particularly helpful though. If I understand you correctly, all you're really trying to do is correlate the prevalence of specific cards to the success or failure of particular decks.

    The real issue with that has nothing to do with technology and more to do with the amount of data available. Magic is an incredibly variable game, and it's pretty hard to get statistically significant amounts of information like this out of the tournaments that get reported. There's enough data available to make an approximation as to what decks are generally successful, but not enough to go into details for that success.

    This is very important when you're trying to look at single cards because minor deck changes may or may not have any impact what so ever in outcomes. For example, I've run simulations before where over 10 million games, a 24 land deck made it's first 4 land drops many more times than a 26 land deck (50 vs 45%) and where a 28 land deck drew 0 lands in more opening hands than a 22 land deck (1% vs <0.1%). A handful of cards, in a handful of decks, over a very small sample size isn't really guaranteed to give you any accurate information.

  17. #57
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Two tournaments added, OP rankings updated:

    July 28, The Last Sun 2018予選 - 晴れる屋トーナメントセンター#2, 72 players: 1.) Grixis Control 2.) Grixis Control 3.) Eldrazi & Taxes 4.) Dark Depths 5.) ANT 6.) BUG Death's Shadow 7.) Miracles 8.) Sneak & Show

    July 28, LML Sexta etapa 22/7 @ TCGeek, 35 players: 1.) Elves 2.) Miracles 3.) Goblins 4.) ? 5.) Turbo Depths 6.) Dredge 7.) Esperblade 8.) Merfolk

  18. #58
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Three tournaments added, OP rankings updated:

    July 28, 37ļ Alpha Legacy @ Magic Store (Brasil), 40 players: 1.) U/W Helm 2.) U/W Stoneblade 3.) Steel Stompy 4.) Shardless BUG 5.) OmniTell w/ Sneak 6.) B/R Reanimator 7.) BUG Lands 8.) Jund

    July 29, レガシー神トライアル, 83 players: 1.) Miracles 2.) U/B Death's Shadow 3.) Grixis Control 4.) Colorless 12-Post 5.) Grixis Control 6.) Aluren 7.) Aggro Loam 8.) Pox

    July 29, Monthly July @ London, 42 players: 1.) Miracles 2.) Miracles 3.) Elves 4.) Lands 5.) Aggro Loam 6.) Goblins 7.) Goblins 8.) Lands

  19. #59
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    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Lava Snacks View Post
    So, which deck is good against Miracles, Show and Tell, Stoneblade, Death & Taxes, Grixis Control, RUG Delver, and Chalice? Or most of it.

    Enchantress is 50-50 with SnS and has a positive matchup against the rest.
    Early one morning while making the round,
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    I went right home and I went to bed,
    I stuck that lovin' .44 beneath my head.

  20. #60

    Re: Results and Meta Post-DRS/Probe Banning

    Quote Originally Posted by Scott View Post
    Three tournaments added, OP rankings updated:
    Do you happen to be tracking this information by date so that we can see week to week changes? Or are you only tracking total points? I've been following the rankings as posts are made and find it interesting how decks are rising and falling.

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