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Thread: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

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    What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    In 2014, predictions of a Chinese counterfeit apocalypse were all the rage. Tabernacle had spiked to $700, Sea to $300, Volc to $250, Cradle to $150, LED to $90, City of Traitors to $75. People posted knowledge of Chinese counterfeiters who were ready to go nuts, and surely they would start to print money, once the price got even higher, flooding the market and making shockwaves.

    Since those shocking highs, Tabernacle has gone from $700 to $3000, Sea from $300 to $800, Volc from $250 to $550, Cradle from $150 to $350, LED from $90 to $250, City of Traitors from $75 to $275. Are they not cashing in and printing those $100K Tabernacle sheets? Then what did the predictions get wrong?

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Who says that they haven't cashed in? If the counterfeits are really good enough, nobody would know the difference.
    Quote Originally Posted by Admiral_Arzar View Post
    Which is fine right now, because unless you live in the Netherlands, storm combo isn't a particularly big part of the metagame.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    I see them regularly. People talk openly at the shop about the best fakes and where to find them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You don't get to play the most powerful cards in the format and then bitch when someone finally says no. You also don't get to bitch that it's not fun when someone finally tells you no instead of voyeuristicly watching you masturbate with Cantrips.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Oh, it is happening. The market integrity is already compromised. This will be a gradual erosion.

  5. #5

    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    As others have said, most people that get them play with them. They aren't 100% perfect so anyone spending that money on RL cards would be doing research or buying from someone that does that will spot it, but rarely will people spot them out when they are played across the table in sleeves. I would speculate that it is the smaller priced, sub-100$ modern cards that are less likely to be caught, both because they aren't mimicking old stock/ ink/ print and reduced vigilance for looking for fakes.

  6. #6

    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    It may well be the case that counterfeits are here, but part of the prediction was about the scale, that there would be so many that card availability would ramp up, prices would drop, and there would be great uncertainty about purchases. That obviously hasn't happened. Maybe it just hasn't fully happened yet. Another thought is that many more cards could enter the supply, but that prices will continue to rise anyway because authentic cards would be the ones being examined and sold, while the new counterfeits would just be played with. I don't think that explains the current situation, though, as I don't get the impression that there are more people playing with Legacy cards than before.
    Last edited by LOLWut; 07-24-2018 at 03:01 AM.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by MorphBerlin View Post
    Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.
    Agree for the most part.

    Are people printing fake cards that can slip by without careful examination? Yep.

    Are people printing fake old reserve list cards that a discerning eye cannot tell apart? No.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by MorphBerlin View Post
    Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.
    This is my take as well.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    The first rule of Fake Magic Club is that you don't talk about the Fake Magic Club.

    The second rule of...

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Andrew Jessup got a game loss for playing with fake Cavern of Souls and Canopies this weekend.

    https://twitter.com/Gfabs5/status/1031204560470196226

    https://twitter.com/TheBetterJessup/...38611524186112

    There should also be a Goldfish article coming up soon with the current state of fakes.

    I don't think the "apocalypse" has even started yet. It takes a while to erode consumer confidence.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    Andrew Jessup got a game loss for playing with fake Cavern of Souls and Canopies this weekend.
    There should also be a Goldfish article coming up soon with the current state of fakes.
    boop: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles...e-card-problem
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You don't get to play the most powerful cards in the format and then bitch when someone finally says no. You also don't get to bitch that it's not fun when someone finally tells you no instead of voyeuristicly watching you masturbate with Cantrips.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by thecrav View Post
    I really like the part where he dedicates an entire article to stating how bad fakes are the game, yet uses screenshots with titles that allow anybody interested in fakes to google for the Subreddit about buying counterfeits.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    I wonder if this problem would be lessened had Wizards of the Coast abolished the Reserved List and printed the high-value cards.

    Sure, more recent non-Reserved cards are being counterfeited also. But I wonder if there'd be as much effort if the older, Reserved List cards weren't already so valuable.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Seth View Post
    I wonder if this problem would be lessened had Wizards of the Coast abolished the Reserved List and printed the high-value cards.

    Sure, more recent non-Reserved cards are being counterfeited also. But I wonder if there'd be as much effort if the older, Reserved List cards weren't already so valuable.
    It's less about the reserved list and more about wizards mindset toward the secondary market in general
    There are so many $20+ Modern staples that could easily be reprinted to sell masters sets
    EE
    K Command
    Colonnade
    Runed Halo
    Maelstrom Pulse
    etc

    WotC is just way too afraid of reprints causing prices to dip -> They don't reprint anything -> Prices go up -> WotC afraid of crashing prices and it just goes in a circle forever

    But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)
    The main problem is that WotC let fakes raise in the first place by making an attractive target. If cardboard becomes more valuable than gold, you're asking for trouble. There isn't much they can do now that the fake market has established itself.
    Last edited by Barook; 08-21-2018 at 05:06 PM.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    If cardboard becomes more valuable than gold, you're asking for trouble.
    For reference:

    * A magic card is slightly less than 1.8 grams (source)

    * At this moment, the price of gold is $1,194.23/ounce ($38.40/gram).

    A Magic card is worth more than its weight in gold at $69.12 .

    For historic reference, the record price of gold was $1,895.00 per ounce (60.93/gram)in September 2011. A Magic card is worth more than its weight in gold at gold's highet historical price at $109.67
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You don't get to play the most powerful cards in the format and then bitch when someone finally says no. You also don't get to bitch that it's not fun when someone finally tells you no instead of voyeuristicly watching you masturbate with Cantrips.

  18. #18

    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)
    That might be true in the present, but I'm talking about beforehand. Sure, Standard-legal cards aren't on the Reserved List and are actively being printed. But would people have turned to them if it wasn't already lucrative to start counterfeiting the older cards that, due to the lack of reprints (either due to being on the Reserved List or just WOTC being annoying), would they have ever really turned to Standard?

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Seth View Post
    That might be true in the present, but I'm talking about beforehand. Sure, Standard-legal cards aren't on the Reserved List and are actively being printed. But would people have turned to them if it wasn't already lucrative to start counterfeiting the older cards that, due to the lack of reprints (either due to being on the Reserved List or just WOTC being annoying), would they have ever really turned to Standard?
    Yes I do think this could have been avoided.

    There are two costs; start up costs that are significant and operating costs that are not significant. By allowing card prices to rise to the point that it became viable to invest in the startup expenses, they allowed the illegal market to become a thing. Had the priced never gotten that high they would have never started.
    Now that we're here though, the only way to stop is to make the card prices drop below operating costs. Either by making cards more difficult to produce with holo-stamps and proprietary fonts, or the game tanks to Star Trek TCG levels. So far nothing has been beyond the capabilities of counterfeiter's to replicate it would seem. Seems this will just be the new normal until the game dies.
    Quote Originally Posted by GreatWhale View Post
    Gross, other formats. I puked in my mouth a little.

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    Re: What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateKing View Post
    So far nothing has been beyond the capabilities of counterfeiter's to replicate it would seem.
    I'm pretty sure the dot matrix hasn't been replicated so far. Same goes for actual card texture.

    My prediction is consumer confidence is slowly going to erode over the years until fakes pass all tests (because it seems that the amount of tests a fake can pass vary from counterfeit to counterfeit). That's where the real shitshow begins.

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