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Thread: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

  1. #1

    Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    hey,

    i wanted to get a little bit in touch with some graph visualization and decided id work on some mtg related stuff, in short i did the following:

    - got 2750 decklists of legacy winning decks in the period between 15Jul2018 and 07Feb2019
    - calculated a "synergy" value between all of those cards
    - calculated a gradient of how each card saw its meta share increase or decline since the first results after the ban up to today. So if on day 1 (after ban) some new cards or decks were tried but it didnt work out longterm the gradient is negative, if some card increased its share or made it newly into the format the gradient is positive. If the card wasnt really affected at all longterm then the gradient is close to 0
    - caluclated the individual meta share of each card
    - and finally created a graph out of it. Imagine it like a simulation where each card is represented by a bubble and those bubbles have springs between them according to their relationship to each other. The size of the bubble stands for the meta share and the color indicates if there is an down, or uptrend for this specific card.

    Why all this? As David Kriesel (some Data analyst) said: the eyes are the broadband connection to the brain! :)

    I have explored it to some degree and made found some interesting details. But im gonna leave the interpretation to you guys and hope this can lead to some discussion afterall

    Download as SVG File (8mb): https://drive.google.com/open?id=19J...RbaB737hVla_NT
    Download as PNG file (25000px x 25000px 50mb): https://drive.google.com/open?id=1tD...s_CyGX-uBO4B9p

    And a preview what it looks like:



    If there are any questions feel free to ask!

  2. #2

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Now I clearly understand this simple and in no way hard to read graph, but for those other, less sophisticated, posters what is the take away here?

  3. #3
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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    * That basic island sees more play than Volcanic Island (and the majority of the other cards in the format)
    * That basic Plains, swamp, and mountain each see more play than most cards in the format

    Thus, basic lands are broken. I think it's time we acknowledge that and ban basics.

    But seeing as wotc likes to IGNORE DATA I think I'm gonna buy up a bunch of basic lands before they start spiking!
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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by tescrin View Post
    * That basic island sees more play than Volcanic Island (and the majority of the other cards in the format)
    * That basic Plains, swamp, and mountain each see more play than most cards in the format

    Thus, basic lands are broken. I think it's time we acknowledge that and ban basics.

    But seeing as wotc likes to IGNORE DATA I think I'm gonna buy up a bunch of basic lands before they start spiking!
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  5. #5

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Now I clearly understand this simple and in no way hard to read graph, but for those other, less sophisticated, posters what is the take away here?
    that is the thing, it depends. In the end there are a lot of thing to be seen here driven by data rather than gut feelings, just to metion a few:

    - i think the overall meta hasnt finally settled yet, though its shape roughly will stay the same
    - If you were a long term Bug player like me: Bad news, without DRS bug is officially dead
    - you can clearly see blue destroying heavily distorting the color pie. We already knew that, but here it is displayed
    - You can clearly see people tried goblins after the ban but longterm it still could not stick even without DRS
    - DnT seems to suffer from the Ban overvall
    - the data indicates that lands suffered from the ban overall, maybe that can be explained by the heavy uptick in combo based strategies? knight of the reliquary based strategies seem to have improved though and fight for the spot
    - plus tons of other things you can see

    but the interpretation of what you see is up to you. You have to ask yourself questions for each individual thing you can see.

    Something i found to be very interesting btw. I made my first tests of the proccess based on some older data when DRS was still legal in 2017.... It indicates people where right, DRS pushed UBx into being the core of the format


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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Chalice of the Void being directly next to Aether Vial is weird. It indicates they are played in the same deck, no?
    Same for Mountain + Lord of Atlantis...

    Would be great if we'd see the cards being arranged better.

  7. #7

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    It does not indicate they are in the same deck, but that they share a common playstyle and therefore push into the same spot in the meta

    i think i would explain it like this: Merfolk ist trying to be the bridge between parts of the blue core like FoW and stompy elements like i.e. Chalice. But on the other hand it is not really connected to i.e. brainstorm and ponder which has an insane influence and pushes it out of that spot. And there it happens to be pushed towards the mountain and red stompy corner. The coloring indicates that it is drifting further away from the core and, whereas the red stompy decks gain influence overall.

    I would sum this up as:

    - Even though being a mono blue deck it doesnt really do the blueish stuff. Basically this indicates it shares more elements with like an aggro (red) stompy deck than the classical cantrip mafia, which is true if you think about it
    - It is one of the worse stompy decks and therefore loses ground to the better stompy decks pushing into this spot

    edit:

    after taking a look at the bigger picture you could even define the succesful archetypes that define the current metagame



    and all other strategies dont really seem to find their spot in this meta. The random surroundings are decks we are seeing and occasionally are doing well, thats why the gradients are very high towards the outer side but they cant stick and those decks dont really define the format unless you wat to categorize them as random garbage as a whole :D.

    PS: Loam / Dark depths decks should be the supertitle.
    Last edited by janchu88; 02-08-2019 at 08:28 AM.

  8. #8

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by tescrin View Post
    Thus, basic lands are broken. I think it's time we acknowledge that and ban basics.
    Poor forest. Sitting in the corner eating his paste and wondering what he ever did...

  9. #9
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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    this looks more like a modern chart or some kind of legacy and modern mix. tons of cards on it that never see play in legacy
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  10. #10

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by Humphrey View Post
    this looks more like a modern chart or some kind of legacy and modern mix. tons of cards on it that never see play in legacy
    Partially this can be explained by the scaling / resolution issue. The bubbles for the major cards would need to be even way bigger in order to make the subtle differences in meta share more visible for the not so heavily represented cards. The reson behind this is that all meta share values are normalized to a scale between 1 and 0 and the bubble representation scales from 1 to 10. It is kind off a tradeoff, cause otherwise the map had to be even bigger and the resolution should have been even higher in order to make the small areas readable. But nevertheless people tried those cards in legacy with limited success. What you see there is the constant attempts of porting modern into legacy. This "random" cloud around the core is the garbage category i meant earlier, which cannot get real traction in legacy but sees some random top8īs from time to time. The chart is 100% based on data from legacy events.

    But its a good feedback, this can be solved to some degree by making the bubble size not perfectly linear in order to emphasize the differences in this lower areas better

  11. #11
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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by janchu88 View Post
    Partially this can be explained by the scaling / resolution issue. The bubbles for the major cards would need to be even way bigger in order to make the subtle differences in meta share more visible for the not so heavily represented cards. The reson behind this is that all meta share values are normalized to a scale between 1 and 0 and the bubble representation scales from 1 to 10. It is kind off a tradeoff, cause otherwise the map had to be even bigger and the resolution should have been even higher in order to make the small areas readable. But nevertheless people tried those cards in legacy with limited success. What you see there is the constant attempts of porting modern into legacy. This "random" cloud around the core is the garbage category i meant earlier, which cannot get real traction in legacy but sees some random top8īs from time to time. The chart is 100% based on data from legacy events.

    But its a good feedback, this can be solved to some degree by making the bubble size not perfectly linear in order to emphasize the differences in this lower areas better


    I kinda think you shouldn't scale down at all for the picture's sake. Let us see the Jupiter-sized Brainstorm/Ponder bubbles. That would truly show the legacy representation.
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  12. #12

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Blue violates the color pie due to Polluted Delta, Flooded Strand, Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn. Time to axe.

  13. #13
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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    I like it but tend to agree that maybe a map that had the top 500 cards but was scaled to show how comparatively huge BS and company are would be more accurate.
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  14. #14

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by SpatulaOfTheAges View Post
    I like it but tend to agree that maybe a map that had the top 500 cards but was scaled to show how comparatively huge BS and company are would be more accurate.
    This please, or less.
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  15. #15

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Really interesting graph. How are the distances between the bubbles calculated? Is it based on likelihood certain cards are present in the same deck?

    Seems like miracles, dnt, infect, lands, snt, and eldrazi post are all on a downswing. Chalice decks like moon, steel, and eldrazi stompy are gaining ground. Spell-based combo and gy-based combo are doing well. Depths, elves, and maverick seem to be doing well. Burn seems to be well positioned as well.

    Overall, slightly less blue and dnt in favor of more prison/non-blue combo.

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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Hey, guise! If we make a graph with a bunch of "data" and shit, then we doctor it to make Brainstorm look like it's the best card in the format, that'll mean everyone will think (as we know, of course!) that it's the best card in the format!

    Seriously, isn't there already a thread for this nonsense?
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  17. #17

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    Hey, guise! If we make a graph with a bunch of "data" and shit, then we doctor it to make Brainstorm look like it's the best card in the format, that'll mean everyone will think (as we know, of course!) that it's the best card in the format!

    Seriously, isn't there already a thread for this nonsense?
    That Already exists

  18. #18

    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    Hey, guise! If we make a graph with a bunch of "data" and shit, then we doctor it to make Brainstorm look like it's the best card in the format, that'll mean everyone will think (as we know, of course!) that it's the best card in the format!

    Seriously, isn't there already a thread for this nonsense?
    So, are you suggesting that it's not an incredibly strong card in the format?

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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Quote Originally Posted by Bithlord View Post
    So, are you suggesting that it's not an incredibly strong card in the format?
    No, I'm saying there's already a thread for people to make freewheeling diatribes about Brainstorm; this thread appeared to be about making an accurate representation of data.
    Quote Originally Posted by non-inflammable View Post
    If you diversified your cantrips, a chalice wouldn't be a liability.
    Quote Originally Posted by chunderbucket View Post
    You want interesting, nonbinary games? Don't make your deck so reliant on cantrips, like pretty much every above deck.
    Quote Originally Posted by iatee View Post
    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stevestamopz View Post
    Almost everyone plays decks that are strictly worse 75s than the top decks - which most people could sleeve up if they wanted to, they just elected not to.

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    Re: Graphical analysis of the post deathrite meta

    Hold on, are you saying that the blue core is good in Legacy?

    Thank god we had data to show it. All this time I was playing Leatherback Baloth like a fool.

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