4 Card Blind

[Wrath of Pie]

Sorry, Between hollidays, covid 19 suspicions (And i'm back home early due to that) I had no time to do the maths this week.
I have radiant fountain, and I don't see how I loose here.
I can keep One servitor to chump all day long and attack back with 2 servitors to win the race thanks to radiant fountain...

Isn't it a 2-2? (I may be wrong but it is my suspicion)
I'll try to work on it tomorrow If I have time.

He has enough time to set up a 4/4 Carrion Feeder before death, which is all that is necessary.

Because the Servitor trigger brings back all Servitors, he can attack all-out every turn, and you have to let one through otherwise you lose to Carrion Feeder beatdown, then he can sacrifice the Servitors on your upkeep because you still have one, and then the trigger brings back all the Servitors, and you can't attack because of summoning sickness.

This repeats every turn, so you eventually die to Servitor beatdown, one damage at a time.

I thought the same thing at first, but turns out there are tricks involved.

[Tylert]

He has enough time to set up a 4/4 Carrion Feeder before death, which is all that is necessary.

Because the Servitor trigger brings back all Servitors, he can attack all-out every turn, and you have to let one through otherwise you lose to Carrion Feeder beatdown, then he can sacrifice the Servitors on your upkeep because you still have one, and then the trigger brings back all the Servitors, and you can't attack because of summoning sickness.

This repeats every turn, so you eventually die to Servitor beatdown, one damage at a time.

I thought the same thing at first, but turns out there are tricks involved.

Math is necessary. I start at 22 and if I block only carrion feeder all turns, I can perhaps race.

[maxx!]

Sorry, Between hollidays, covid 19 suspicions (And i'm back home early due to that) I had no time to do the maths this week.
I have radiant fountain, and I don't see how I loose here.
I can keep One servitor to chump all day long and attack back with 2 servitors to win the race thanks to radiant fountain...

Isn't it a 2-2? (I may be wrong but it is my suspicion)
I'll try to work on it tomorrow If I have time.

i think the idea is that Reeplcheep can sac myrs to their carrion feeder to "untap" them (since they come back untapped on your upkeep). i'll take a crack at this one.

so once you've both played all your creatures (and carrion feeder has at least 1 counter so he doesn't get triple blocked and die), Reeplcheep attacks with everything every turn. if you block all 3, all the myrs die and never come back, so you lose to carrion feeder. you have to block feeder every turn, so you have 2 options: block feeder only or block feeder and a myr.

I - Tylert only blocks CF
Tylert takes 2. after combat, Reeplcheep sacs their 2 Myrs to Carrion Feeder. on Tylert's upkeep, both of Reeplcheep's Myrs come back, plus Tylert's Myr that blocked feeder. Tylert can attack with at most 2 Myrs (one is summoning sick, and it needs to stay home to block feeder anyway).

Option A - Tylert doesn't attack back
this never gets anywhere, but i thought i'd mention it to be thorough. obviously if Tylert takes 2 every turn and never attacks back, they're gonna lose.
Option B - Tylert attacks back with 2 Myrs
attacking with both would let Reeplcheep double block, killing all the Myrs except 1 on Tylert's side. then Reeplcheep would get to attack with CF, and Tylert is forced to either block and let all the Myrs stay dead forever, or take a bunch of damage from however big CF is at this point. so double attacking is a losing line.
Option C - Tylert attacks back with 1 Myr
Reeplcheep has 3 different responses to this line, so i'll explore each of them.

Response 1 - Reeplcheep blocks and lets damage happen
this means Reeplcheep won't be able to attack with all 3 creatures on their turn, since one will be sick. but Tylert will have all 3 of his Myrs untapped and ready to block. this puts Reeplcheep on the defensive, and makes it hard to keep attacking. i think there are better lines for Reeplcheep.
Response 2 - Reeplcheep blocks and sacs the blocker before damage
again, Reeplcheep won't be able to attack with all 3 creatures, but one of Tylert's Myrs is now tapped. is this good enough? Reeplcheep can double attack, but Tylert can easily double block and not really suffer any consequences. this looks like it leads toward a draw, but let's explore the last option before we go too deep down this path.
Response 3 - Reeplcheep doesn't block
Reeplcheep takes 1, and now we're back where we started with Reeplcheep able to attack with all 3. but this is bad news for Tylert, since they already took 2 just to get to this point. trading 2 damage for 1 back and forth will certainly kill Tylert first, even with the 2 life buffer and possible attacks from the first 2 or 3 turns where the creatures were still being played. Reeplcheep only needs to connect for 2 11 times, so Tylert would've had to have done 9 damage to Reeplcheep already for this race to be good. Tylert can't keep making this exchange, so they'll have to block more than just CF.

i think that's every line where Tylert only blocks carrion feeder, and i don't see any way for Tylert to win or force a draw that way. so let's see how it plays out if Tylert blocks 2 attackers every time Reeplcheep attacks with the team:

II - Tylert blocks CF and 1 Myr
Tylert still takes 1, and now only has 1 Myr that's able to attack. So the options this time are simpler

Option A - Tylert doesn't attack back
again, this one goes nowhere. Tylert would've taken 1, dealt no damage back, then end up right back where they started with Reeplcheep attacking with everything. Tylert needs to attack to win.
Option B - Tylert attacks with 1 Myr
same 3 options as above for Reeplcheep, but they play out differently this time.

Response 1 - Reeplcheep blocks and lets damage happen
this response is a strictly worse version of response 2. moving on.
Response 2 - Reeplcheep blocks and sacs the blocker before damage
Reeplcheep has 1 summoning sick Myr, and Tylert has 1 tapped Myr. since response 3 (don't block) isn't a good life trade for Reeplcheep in this scenario, we need to explore this line more. triple attack is out, and Carrion Feeder can't block so there's no reason to ever leave it at home. that leaves us with only 2 follow-ups.

Follow-up 1 - Reeplcheep attacks with CF only
Tylert has to block, but they can do so at no real cost. Tylert can then attack with exactly 1 Myr on their own turn again and end up back in this same situation, with 2 blockers available, and either trading 1 for 1 with Reeplcheep's life total, or forcing Reeplcheep to block, preventing any alpha strikes. this should lead to a draw
Follow-up 2 - Reeplcheep attacks with CF and 1 Myr
Tylert can actually double block here just fine, at no cost. so this is effectively the same as follow-up 1. i think this line might actually force a draw.

Response 3 - Reeplcheep doesn't block
Reeplcheep takes 1. and we're back where we started, but this time it's a 1-for-1 life trade. this is not a winning line for Reeplcheep, since Tylert started at a higher life total.

tl;dr: If Tylert attacks with exactly 1 Myr Servitor every turn, then Reeplcheep's only options are to trade 1-for-1 with Tylert's life total, or to force a draw. Either Reeplcheep doesn't block and attacks with everything next turn (Tylert blocks 2 and 1 damage gets through), or Reeplcheep blocks, then attacks with less than everything (due to summoning sickness), which Tylert can easily block with their 2 untapped Myrs. Even with sac tricks to keep Tylert's attacker from dying (leaving it tapped), I don't see a way for Reeplcheep to force 1 damage through every turn without letting Tylert get 1 in every turn as well.

and with Tylert starting at 22, i think that makes this 2-2? might need to double check on the first few turns and see if OTP vs OTD Reeplcheep can even out the life totals before the boards get totally full, but this post is already long enough so i'll let somebody else do that.

[Asthereal]

EDIT: Wait, this is even more complicated than I thought. We'll check this some more...
EDIT2: Spielmeister FTW, where you at?

[FTW]

That sounds right to me. DD 2-2

Reeplcheep can only force damage through by attacking with all 3 at once. With fewer than 3 attackers, Tylert always has lines to infinitely stall.

Reeplcheep can get one attack with all 3 to push through 1 damage, but then Tylert can attack back with 1 Myr to prevent it from ever happening again (or win the race). Reepl can do tricks with CF to untap attacking Myrs to block, preventing damage. Reepl can also sacrifice blockers to prevent trades with Tylert's attackers, keeping the attackers tapped and unable to block. However the sacrificed blockers will return summoning sick and unable to attack, at best blocking and sacrificing over and over. Keeping Tylert's attacker tapped doesn't accomplish anything because summoning sickness prevents breaking parity by attacking back. Either way, Tylert has enough blockers to stop Reeplcheep's attackers. I neglected this summoning sickness before! Reepl has no way to ever get back to a state where all 3 can attack again.

Early game Tylert can prevent all of Reepl's attacks by just playing out Myr and chump blocking every turn. It doesn't matter if all the Myr trade with each other. They will all return after Tylert plays the 3rd from hand. The symmetry stops Reeplcheep from making progress.

[Wrath of Pie]

Thank goodness Myr Servitor mirrors are no longer a thing.

[Reeplcheep]

That sounds right to me. DD 2-2

Reeplcheep can only force damage through by attacking with all 3 at once. With fewer than 3 attackers, Tylert always has lines to infinitely stall.

Reeplcheep can get one attack with all 3 to push through 1 damage, but then Tylert can attack back with 1 Myr to prevent it from ever happening again (or win the race). Reepl can do tricks with CF to untap attacking Myrs to block, preventing damage. Reepl can also sacrifice blockers to prevent trades with Tylert's attackers, keeping the attackers tapped and unable to block. However the sacrificed blockers will return summoning sick and unable to attack, at best blocking and sacrificing over and over. Keeping Tylert's attacker tapped doesn't accomplish anything because summoning sickness prevents breaking parity by attacking back. Either way, Tylert has enough blockers to stop Reeplcheep's attackers. I neglected this summoning sickness before! Reepl has no way to ever get back to a state where all 3 can attack again.

Early game Tylert can prevent all of Reepl's attacks by just playing out Myr and chump blocking every turn. It doesn't matter if all the Myr trade with each other. They will all return after Tylert plays the 3rd from hand. The symmetry stops Reeplcheep from making progress.

I definitely missed in my analysis that he can attack me, not to do damage, but to prevent alpha striking through summoning sickness, meaning I draw with a lifetotal disadvantage in steady state. We have established that he can't win by starting the race, and I can force a lifetotal trade if I have everything out and at least 1 counter on my carrion feeder.

Your analysis in the last paragraph misses that they all return ONLY IF an extra myr survives a turn (in this case his third). Thus if I am OTP and he/her chump blocks every turn he cannot chump block on my 4th turn or else all myrs are dead and none return and my CF wins. Thus he would take 3 damage on the fourth turn; he can then start the lifetotal trade as mentioned before by attacking with one myr and chumping with the rest but since he is at 19 vs my 20 he loses barely. If does nothing with his last myr then i just start the race by attacking with all.

Tylert can prevent this by not chumping on my t2 instead, which costs him/her 2 life equaling life totals to 20/20. He/She can't attack back though because i can trade and then they end up at the same spot (no extra myrs so he/she can't chump the last attack if I sac all my dudes before my upkeep.) On my t3 she/he can chump since now she/he has the extra myr to bring everything back. Tylert can also start attacking for 1 because he/she now has an extra defender, which he/she would win the race being at equal lifetotals. Thus I block and the game is a draw.

So when I am OTP Tylert can only draw if he/she neither makes the first possible block NOR the first possible attack, which is very unintuitive and quite different than the lines above, and only because of his/her lifegain from the land is more than 1.

OTD draw he/she always has an extra myr so the above never applies.

tl;dr DD 2/2 but we got the line wrong like 6 consecutive times

[Asthereal]

(...)
tl;dr DD 2/2 but we got the line wrong like 6 consecutive times

Oh, we've had this happen before and it will happen again.
This game can be a lot more complicated than it looks.

Thank you and FTW for checking this match again.
I edited all the things again. Thankfully it didn't influence bannings.

[Tylert]

Oh, we've had this happen before and it will happen again.
This game can be a lot more complicated than it looks.

Thank you and FTW for checking this match again.
I edited all the things again. Thankfully it didn't influence bannings.

I promise I won't play myr servitor until next season :)
Thanks for the analysis.

[Asthereal]

Less than 24 hours until the deadline, and we're at 3 entries. Don't miss out!

[Asthereal]

The deadline has passed and everyone's sent a deck except one. I sent a PM to check.

[Asthereal]

Looks like we're one man short again, but I have to leave now, so here we go.

DECKS FOR ROUND 7 OF SEASON 7: Pauper Bannathon

1. Asthereal (TO): Plains, Plains, Caravan Escort, Kami of Ancient Law
2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk
3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw
4. Wrath of Pie: Blossoming Sands, Forest, Selesnya Evangel, Qasali Pridemage
5. H: Island, Sea's Claim, Slither Blade, Sigil of Sleep
6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon
7. maxx!: Mountain, Swiftwater Cliffs, Mogg War Marshal, Sparksmith
8. Tylert: Forest, Mountain, Bond Beetle, Horned Kavu
9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains
10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays

Please post your scores and cross-check with the opponents.
I'll update the Google Spreadsheet for the season, so you can enter your scores there as well: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[FTW]

9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains

I shamelessly stole this after I thought Sea's Claim would be good this round, and that this would be better than my own deck. Let's see how it does.

1. Asthereal (TO): I knew I would have to sacrifice this matchup, but maybe it's worth it. LL 0-6
2. Reeplcheep: You can only cast 1 creature before I Sea's Claim your land. It dies to Mana Chains and my 2/2 gets there. WW 6-0
3. GoblinSmashmaster: You can dodge LD, but if I just Mana Chains your Ranger you're never able to cast anything else. WW 6-0
4. Wrath of Pie: If I Sea's Claim Blossoming Sands, you can't cast anything. WW 6-0
5. H: Sea's Claim is dead in the mirror, but Mana Chains kills Slither Blade and I can recast Gearsmith. WW 6-0
6. alphastryk: If you go for Scout, Sea's Claim locks you out. If you go for Ornithopter, Mana Chains kills it. WW 6-0
7. maxx!: You can beat Sea's Claim, and Sparksmith survives Mana Chains long enough to kill my 2/2 while the 1/1s get there. LL 0-6
8. Tylert: Sea's Claim on Forest leaves you with just Bond Beetle, which loses to Mana Chains and a 2/2. WW 6-0
10. silkster: Oppressive Rays means I can't win, you can't avoid the draw if I just do nothing. If you lead by Suspending Giant (playing Sentry first is worse), I Sea's Claim your Plains (shutting off Rays). You play Sentry and I play Gearsmith. I have to Mana Chains the Giant, and your regenerating 1/1 holds off my attacker. DD 2-2

38 points (12 wins, 2 draws)

[Wrath of Pie]

4. Wrath of Pie: Blossoming Sands, Forest, Selesnya Evangel, Qasali Pridemage

1. Asthereal (TO): Plains, Plains, Caravan Escort, Kami of Ancient Law WW
2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk LL
3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw WW - Colossal Dreadmaw probably would have been better because of trample.
5. H: Island, Sea's Claim, Slither Blade, Sigil of Sleep LL
6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon WW
7. maxx!: Mountain, Swiftwater Cliffs, Mogg War Marshal, Sparksmith LL
8. Tylert: Forest, Mountain, Bonded beetle, Horned Kavu WW - Bonded Beetle is not a card. I am assuming you meant Bond Beetle.
9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains LL
10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays LL

8w = 24 points

In the spirit of H, I put in a token effort and got a token amount of points.

[Reeplcheep]

Still don't know what I am doing enough to meta, so something simple and proactive. With lifelink, you need more than 6 damage a turn to have a chance at racing. Further more, my goldfish is 20, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, 0. Thus if the opponent can't do 37 damage before t8 and no removal/flyers I will assume 6-0 to simplify so i don't have to consider blocks.

1. Asthereal (TO): Plains, Plains, Caravan Escort, Kami of Ancient Law
You gold fish 0, 2 (L2), 4 (l2), 8 (l3), 12(l4), 19 (l5), 26 (l5), 33(l5). 6-0, even without chumping.

2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk
Thats me.

3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw
I assume casting your big dude as fast as possible is your fastest clock. You gold fish 0, 0, 0, 9, 18, 27, 36, 45 so I win OTP w/o chumping. Chumping twice OTD takes away 14 damage from you but only 3 from me so I win just barely win on t9. 6-0

4. Wrath of Pie: Blossoming Sands, Forest, Selesnya Evangel, Qasali Pridemage
You need to be attacking for 6 to start catching up to me on the race. I assume you are way too slow. 6-0.

5. H: Island, Sea's Claim, Slither Blade, Sigil of Sleep
You remove all my dudes. 0-6

6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon
too much math, get back to it. assume I am too slow. 0-6

7. maxx!: Mountain, Swiftwater Cliffs, Mogg War Marshal, Sparksmith
I assume I am not fast enough? 0-6

8. Tylert: Forest, Mountain, Bonded beetle, Horned Kavu
You never make something with 6 or more power or flying. 6-0.

9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains
Definitely thought mana chains was just a normal upkeep when i made the deck. 0-6.

10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays
lock down my flyer and chump my ground crew forever. 0-6

18?

[alphastryk]

Shameless laziness means I just resubmitted the same deck from last round. It seems like that may not work out so well.

1. Asthereal (TO): Plains, Plains, Caravan Escort, Kami of Ancient Law
Same as last round as well I see. LL

0-6

2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk
Lifelink seems like it would make racing hard, but I think once my Ornithopter grows via Cocoon to be big enough to eat your Hawk when blocking that I take over the game from there. Edit - lots of math has been done, and I trust that FTW came up with the proper results. WD

4-1

3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw
You get to cast your giant guy on turn 3, so it comes down to whether that kills me before I can grow my creature big enough to block, including using my other creature to chump. Quick stab at it seems like I'll never be big enough fast enough. LL

0-6

4. Wrath of Pie: Blossoming Sands, Forest, Selesnya Evangel, Qasali Pridemage

In the spirit of H, I put in a token effort and got a token amount of points.

This deck crushes me in so many ways. LL

0-6

5. H: Island, Sea's Claim, Slither Blade, Sigil of Sleep
The results from round 5 lead me to believer this is DL

1-4

6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon
This is me

7. maxx!: Mountain, Swiftwater Cliffs, Mogg War Marshal, Sparksmith
I can enchant my Scout with Cocoon but anytime I play Ornithopter Sparksmith can kill it. Based on previous racing math pretty sure my vertical growth threat defeats 3 1/1s. WW

6-0

8. Tylert: Forest, Mountain, Bond beetle, Horned Kavu
My creature will grow beyond the size of yours, and it will happen fast enough for me to not die. WW

6-0

9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains
Can't beat both Sea's Claim and Mana Chains. LL

0-6

10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays
Oppressive Rays means I need to enchant Scout, but only Ornithopter can get past the Sentry. Edit - as Wrath of Pie pointed out, once I grow Scout big enough it can block the Giant, leading to draws. DD

2-2


Tentatively 19, but fully admit I put less time into working through these than I would like to

[FTW]

With lifelink, you need more than 6 damage a turn to have a chance at racing. Further more, my goldfish is 20, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, 0. Thus if the opponent can't do 37 damage before t8 and no removal/flyers I will assume 6-0 to simplify so i don't have to consider blocks.

If you need to chump to survive the 37 damage by T8, then both your damage output and lifegain decrease, so the opponent both has more time and
doesn't need to deal as much damage to win.

That comes up vs GoblinSmashmaster OTD

2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk

3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw
I assume casting your big dude as fast as possible is your fastest clock. You gold fish 0, 0, 0, 9, 18, 27, 36, 45 so I win OTP w/o chumping. Chumping twice OTD takes away 14 damage from you but only 3 from me so I win just barely win on t9. 6-0

OTD your life totals go (Reepl / Gob)
T1 20 / 20
T2 22 / 18
T3 21-24 / 15 (Quirion Ranger can attack for 1 after Vorstclaw is cast, and trading with Squire is bad for you)
T4 15-18 / 12 (Vorstclaw starts attacking)
T5 9-12 / 9
T6 3-6 / 6
T7 4-6 / 4 (you're forced to chump Vorstclaw, then only have a 2/2 lifelink)
T8 4-5 / 3 (you're forced to chump Vorstclaw, then only have a 1/1 lifelink)
T9 dead

So you should lose OTD

WL 3-3?

6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon
too much math, get back to it. assume I am too slow. 0-6

I think you're right. He makes a 3/5 flying by turn 4, much before you can kill. After that you have no profitable attacks. Either a 3/3 flying lifelink or 3/3 Squire will just run into the 3/5 and die. Then 1/1 Scout can keep chipping in for 1 on the ground, forcing a trade with a Squire. Once you're left with only 1 creature, the 3/5 flyer easily races.

If you don't attack into the Ornithopter, it just grows to 100/102 and can 1-shot you.

Edit: I stand corrected. Because of the initial lifegain and Exalted, his 3/5 can only race the last Akrasan Squire when he goes first. Otherwise it must defend to draw.

[Wrath of Pie]

10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays
Oppressive Rays means I need to enchant Scout, but only Ornithopter can get past the Sentry. Nice deck. LL

You can block forever once Scout is big enough and Ivory Giant only gets one hit in, so you should draw.

[maxx!]

maxx! Results for Round "Just call me GoblinSmashmaxxer"

1. Asthereal (TO): Plains, Plains, Caravan Escort, Kami of Ancient Law
Goblins smash! 6-0

2. Reeplcheep: Plains, Akrasan Squire, Akrasan Squire, Healer's Hawk
Goblins smash! 6-0

3. GoblinSmashmaster: Forest, Quirion Ranger, Priest of Titania, Vorstclaw
Goblins smash! Then Vorstclaw 3-3

4. Wrath of Pie: Blossoming Sands, Forest, Selesnya Evangel, Qasali Pridemage
Goblins smash! 6-0

5. H: Island, Sea's Claim, Slither Blade, Sigil of Sleep
Goblins sleep :( 0-6

6. alphastryk: Forest, Gladecover Scout, Ornithopter, Primal Cocoon
Pesky Scout 0-6

7. maxx!: Mountain, Swiftwater Cliffs, Mogg War Marshal, Sparksmith
That's me!

8. Tylert: Forest, Mountain, Bonded beetle, Horned Kavu
Goblins stare. 2-2

9. FTW: Seat of the Synod, Sea's Claim, Gearsmith Prodigy, Mana Chains
Goblins smash! 6-0

10. silkster: Plains, Ivory Giant, Soldevi Sentry, Oppressive Rays
Goblins are oppressed :( 0-6

Total: 29 points

(I love GoblinSmashmaster's style, so this is my homage)

[alphastryk]

You can block forever once Scout is big enough and Ivory Giant only gets one hit in, so you should draw.

This makes sense to me, updating my results.