Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 21 to 33 of 33

Thread: The die roll imbalance.

  1. #21
    Member

    Join Date

    May 2015
    Location

    PDX
    Posts

    1,021

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Tiger is overpowered, everyone knows this @Dice_Box. 50% of the time it wins 100% of the time and that's like a 75% win rate.

  2. #22
    The green Ancestral
    ESG's Avatar
    Join Date

    Mar 2010
    Location

    Seattle, WA
    Posts

    1,093

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Manaless Dredge loves to lose the die roll.

    If you aren't interested in that deck, how about trying some non-dice methods of randomization, like flipping a coin? It's hard to believe your stats claim, but if it's actually that unfavorable, then try something else. Any random method ought to be fine as long as your opponent agrees. I like Dice_Box's suggestion. I personally keep a deck of poker cards with me and like to put a card face down and have my opponent guess whether it's a red card or a black card. With more casual games or poker fans, it's fun to do a quick poker hand and have the winner of that choose whether to be on the play or on the draw.

  3. #23
    Member
    mistercakes's Avatar
    Join Date

    Nov 2009
    Location

    Berlin
    Posts

    1,746

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Play miracles. Prob great on the draw.
    -rob

  4. #24

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by tescrin View Post
    You know, I was thinking that the last time someone handed me it: "Didn't I learn in college that he has a 50% chance of winning while I have a 33%?" but I didn't pipe up. I'm not 100% monty hall applies here; but that's just because it's such a mind twist.

    brazingra
    The Monty Hall problem is framed as follows:

    The game show presents you with three doors, and you can pick one. Behind one is a car, behind both of the others is a goat. You arbitrarily pick one door. The game show host will *always* then open a door with a goat. You then get the choice of staying with the door you picked (which had a 1/3 chance to be the car), or switch to the other closed door (which has a 1/2 chance to be the car, since you now have knowledge that the open door is not a car).

    Monty Hall doesn't apply, because what makes it "work" is the change in knowledge from initial pick to the second pick. Assuming you *each* have a set of paper/scissors/rock - you have no knowledge of the other players choice and equal odds to win. If you try and make it work using only one set, and randomly pick onecard for each player, then each players still has equal odds of winning, but those odds are only 35% (the remaining 35% is a draw and forces the players to redraw).

    But, there will *never* be a game where your odds are 35% and his are 50%, because it's a zero zum situation. Either he wins the roll or you win the roll.

  5. #25

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by tescrin View Post
    You know, I was thinking that the last time someone handed me it: "Didn't I learn in college that he has a 50% chance of winning while I have a 33%?" but I didn't pipe up. I'm not 100% monty hall applies here; but that's just because it's such a mind twist.

    brazingra
    You both have a 50% chance of winning.

    He presents you the 3 cards face down. He picks one at random (e.g. Rock). He presents you with the remaining 2 choices. One of them loses to it (e.g. Scissors) and the other one beats it (e.g. Paper), so you have a 50% chance of winning and 50% chance that he beats you. It's perfectly fair.

    The Monty Hall problem is different. It involves having the option to switch your choice after Monty eliminates one of the other options. There's no switching with the Rock Lobster game. Also the key difference is Monty doesn't remove one at random. As the show host he already knows the real answer, and he always removes a losing choice (for the drama of opening a door and revealing a dud). His choice adds information (he never eliminates the car) and that's why the odds change. If Monty removed one at random, it wouldn't matter whether you switch or not.

  6. #26

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bithlord View Post
    You then get the choice of staying with the door you picked (which had a 1/3 chance to be the car), or switch to the other closed door (which has a 1/2 chance to be the car, since you now have knowledge that the open door is not a car).
    Minor technicality: The other closed door has a 2/3 chance to be the car. It's still zero-sum.

  7. #27

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Monty Hall applies to any statistical problem where Choice 1 is invalidated by Choice 2. In the classic problem it's because Choice 1 was made at different odds, and in this problem it's because Choice 1 serves only to seed the definition of Choice 2.
    If you're worried about it I recommend adding a Goat Token to get the true Zonk experience.

  8. #28

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Monty Hall applies to any statistical problem where Choice 1 is invalidated by Choice 2. In the classic problem it's because Choice 1 was made at different odds, and in this problem it's because Choice 1 serves only to seed the definition of Choice 2.
    Ok sure the problem can be generalized to other things. Still the odds only change because both of these occur:
    1) someone with perfect information removes one of the options nonrandomly, revealing information about the remaining choices
    2) you're allowed to change your choice after the information is revealed

    Even in the classic problem, if you couldn't change your choice after he opens the door, there's no trick. It's a fair game.

    If Monty eliminated a door at random, again there's no trick. It's a fair game.

    There's no Monty Hall issue playing with Rock Lobster and friends. You're both picking at random. Each player has a 50% chance to win.
    Last edited by FTW; 03-06-2019 at 12:41 AM.

  9. #29

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Minor technicality: The other closed door has a 2/3 chance to be the car. It's still zero-sum.
    good catch. Wrote it fast at work.

  10. #30
    Some dipshit of a Moderator.
    Dice_Box's Avatar
    Join Date

    Mar 2013
    Location

    A Tabernacle in some random Valley.
    Posts

    4,742

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    You know, there is always the other option, this:
    It is better to ask and look stupid then keep your mouth shut and remain so.
    Quote Originally Posted by Spam View Post
    Do not make fun of lands masters, they've spent many years mastering the punishing fire technique in the secret loam monastery. Do not mistake them with the miracles masters, eternal rivals, they won't like it.
    Quote Originally Posted by DarthVicious View Post
    I hope your afterlife is filled with eternal torment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    Fuck. Which one of my quotes do I drop for this?
    Quote Originally Posted by DarthVicious View Post
    Something about how fun it is pulling the wings off flies and microwaving the neighbors cat?

  11. #31

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You know, there is always the other option, this:
    Except that then introduces the possibility of a draw, whereas just the one set is always a 50% chance to win the 'die roll' for the player picking second.

  12. #32
    The crazy nastyass honey badger

    Join Date

    Dec 2013
    Location

    A desk chair, The Netherlands
    Posts

    1,841

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    So if you draw you go again. What's the problem?

    You could also just pick even or uneven (or high or low for that matter) and just roll the die.
    Quote Originally Posted by cavalrywolfpack View Post
    DAMMIT ECHELON

  13. #33

    Re: The die roll imbalance.

    Probably easier to make games best-of-two
    And will be a fairer metric..
    If you cant “break their serve”, u dont win..

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)