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Thread: Nourishing Lichless Combo

  1. #21
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    That actually seems pretty consistent with the Sire back-up plan.

    Be careful with some of the hands... Neoform costs UG so you need a blue source to cast it. Double ESG (e.g. hand #3) can't cast it. It just makes a 1/1 Allosaurus FTL. Some of the "land + green source" hands may not cast it unless that land turns into Tropical Island (which is why you probably want a high % of fetches in your lands, so you can fetch Trop easily).
    That is very true.

    Btw, this is the list I'm goldfishing (it is slightly less consistent than above due to only singletons but I feel it gains more from the situations where you don't want Grisle or Sire).

    4 Tropical Island
    4 Misty Rainforest
    1 Island
    1 Forest

    4 Allosaurus Rider
    4 Autochthon Wurm
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    3 Vine Dryad
    3 Skyshroud Cutter
    2 Simian Spirit Guide
    1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
    1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
    1 Sire of Insanity
    1 Carnage Tyrant
    1 Griselbrand
    1 Empyrial Archangel
    1 Borborygmos Enraged

    4 Neoform
    4 Eldritch Evolution
    4 Nourishing Shoal
    4 Lotus Petal
    3 Manamorphose


    Currently, the other targets are the ones that can hit the hardest and have the most protection rather than any special abilities (plus I leaned on them being green just in case you need to discard them), could definitely use advice on what else to replace them with.

    Edit - FYI, currently experimenting with putting summoning Pact back in n some numbers to up turn 1 percentage and improve combo pecercentage (since it can search for the wurm or the enraged.)

    With the following edits above:

    +2 Summoner's Pact
    - 1 Chancellor of the Tangle
    - 1 Manamorphose

    30 goldfishing hands:

    1 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
    2 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Pact Combo
    3 No Mulligan - Turn 3 Sire of Insanity or Sigarda
    4 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity
    5 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Pact Combo
    6 Mulligan to Oblivion
    7 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
    8 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
    9 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 3 Combo without Pact
    10 Mulligan to Oblivion
    11 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
    12 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
    13 Mulligan to 3 - Turn 3 Combo without Pact
    14 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 4 Combo without Pact
    15 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
    16 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
    17 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
    18 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
    19 Mulligan to 5 - Don't draw into anything I need
    20 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
    21 Mulligan to Oblivion
    22 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
    23 No Mulligan - Turn 4 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan (should've mulliganed)
    24 Mulligan to Oblivion (should've kept a weak hand somewhere)
    25 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 2 Combo without Pact
    26 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 3 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
    27 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
    28 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 2 Pact Combo
    29 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
    30 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
    Last edited by Cire; 04-23-2019 at 02:37 PM.

  2. #22
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    can we work on modifying the modern version so that it will benefit from legacy additions:

    // 60 Maindeck
    // 17 Creature
    4 Allosaurus Rider
    1 Autochthon Wurm
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    3 Griselbrand
    1 Laboratory Maniac
    4 Simian Spirit Guide

    // 13 Instant
    1 Crimson Wisps
    1 Lightning Storm
    3 Manamorphose
    4 Nourishing Shoal
    4 Summoner's Pact

    // 20 Land
    4 Botanical Sanctum
    2 Breeding Pool
    3 Forest
    1 Island
    4 Misty Rainforest
    1 Stomping Ground
    4 Temple of Mystery
    1 Windswept Heath

    // 10 Sorcery
    2 Eldritch Evolution
    4 Neoform
    4 Serum Visions


    so what does legacy have to offer here?

    brainstorm, ponder, fow, elvish spirit guide, daze? show and tell? vine dryad (as mentioned earlier in the thread)

    wondering how far we actually have to deviate from this original list.

    thoughts?
    -rob

  3. #23
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    I mean compare to the previous list I posted? The legacy list, at least my version, aims to have the Sire of Insanity back up plan, and runs less lands and Lotus Petal and ESG. Probably the only real difference between them.

  4. #24

    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    So, I've been playing around with this list and think I have a few improvements to offer/note:

    First, Living Wish seems *super great* here, for a couple reasons: It can fetch an allosaurus rider from the board (copies 8-X of a combo piece), it allows you to move Lab Man to the board (upping the green count) and it lets you run Children of Koloris in the board, giving you more Nourishing Shoal effects (and a Tin Fins impersonation!) (The problem with this plan is that the amount of mana you can generate after drawing your deck starts to be a real issue).

    I'm not sold on running any number of Autochthon Wurm in the main. Nourishing Shoal is already a fair amount of relatively useless deck slots devoted to a combo that has a disturbingly high chance to fizzle. Between Chancellors and spare Riders I don't really think gaining more life is the most important thing to do. The Children of Koloris plan from above also helps offset this deficit.

    Why aren't we running cantrips and Force? We already want blue for Neoform (and thus have 4 blue cards); playing 4 brainstorm and 4 ponder seem like a no-brainer to me. Brainstorm also lets you put fatties back into the library for neovolution, especially important for Borgy players to get that wincon out. Speaking of Borgy, I think he's infinitely better than autochthon since he serves some purpose other than being green and high CMC while still netting you more than one Grisel activation (although it's way less consistent, sure, but how many games are we losing to having useless cards like autochthon wurm in the main?) Speaking of Borgy, Tidespout Tyrant is also an 8-drop and is stupid good against most hate for Gbanned.

    You can play some number of Land Grant to replace some number of fetches and increase the green card count.

    OP: Your hypergeo math is wrong. 1-Hypergeo(1,7,8,60) is the odds of drawing any number of the 8-of *except exactly one*. You want =1-HYPGEOM.DIST(0,7,8,60, FALSE()), the odds of drawing any number except 0 of the 8-of, which is roughly 65%. (I'm using libreoffice, so my syntax might be slightly different? The point is you want 1-p(0 successes), not 1-p(1 success).) This means you have a roughly 42% chance to have both a allosaurus/pact and a neoform/evolution in your opener BEFORE MULLIGANS. (I think that number is also generous because to get the real value you'd need to do a multivariate hypergeo dist and they're complicated (kinda) and involve dividing really really big numbers, which I'm not confident in excel/LO's ability to do with reasonable rounding error and without at least rough simulation to confirm.) Also note that depending on your mana loadout this is not at all the same as a t1.

    The hypergeo for the number of green cards you want is =1-HYPGEOM.DIST(1,7,{X},60, TRUE()), where {X} is the number of green cards minus 1 (because one is the rider you're casting) in your decklist. (sidenote: the cumulative setting actually doesn't matter in the first example, as at 0 successes there's nothing to sum; but in the second you MUST use cumulative to get an accurate number as written, because that hypergeo formula basically works out to the probability of drawing >the number of successes entered (1 here; i.e., two or more green cards). end sidenote.) Milestones for that math:
    >14 -> >50%
    >20 -> >75%
    >27 -> >90% (although 26 = ~89.5)
    >31 -> >95%
    >38 -> >99%

    Also, Summoner's pact seems like an autoinclude for Allosaur-fueled versions. The evolve-into-a-six-drop versions have two free creatures to use, so it's less necessary there (and significantly worse, as they don't just win the game), but when you want a g-daddy I think you have to play it. It's also ridiculously powerful, being simultaneously a combo piece and pitchable for the rider and mana for the combo AND a creature to pitch to Shoal once you're comboing. It just does literally everthing in this deck.

    I think that being an 8/8+ combo, we should be taking build queues from Sneak and Show and in large part trying to play a similar, faster game than they do. This is somewhat hampered by needing at least 6 more slots devoted to the combo in order to win on the turn we play it, but that disadvantage may or may not be balanced by speed and power. Time will tell, I guess.

  5. #25
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    what's your current living wish list?
    -rob

  6. #26
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    @angelbaka: Thanks for all the great points! In terms, and just for example the last list I posted, what are your suggestions? I gather something close to:

    -4 Autochthon Wurm
    +4 Living Wish
    -1 Allosaurus Rider
    +1 Open

    SB
    1 Wurm?
    1 Children of Korolis
    1 Laboratory Maniac
    1 Allosaurus Rider
    1 Something for Enchantments/Artifacts?
    10 Other

    RE: FOW/Blue - I would love to play FOW and blue cantrips, but what would I be taking out in the deck - look at my latest list, which 12 cards would I be able to take out?

  7. #27
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    You can try pact of negation if it's a turn 1 or turn 2 deck, unless if you want to use Fow defensively.
    -rob

  8. #28
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    You could leave 1 Wurm main to tutor with Pact. You won't always have Living Wish mana while comboing off and in need of life, or Wish could get countered.

  9. #29
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    Thing about Pacts is that if you go off Pact you are aiming for combo win - without pact you can fizzle and still have Grizzel out to beat face and hopefully win the game.

    @FTW: Good point on Wurm.

    I'll have to test how often we fizzle on the combo win though with wish . . . Otherwise, as of the latest list, the win %s are (after 100+ goldfishing):

    Turn 1 Sire: 18%
    Turn 1 Combo: 24% (Fizzle Rate in testing about 30%. It is about 50-50 in terms of whether pact kills you, or you are left with Grizzle on the board.)
    Turn 2 Anything: 26%(about 50-50 in terms of Sire or Combo at this point. Fizzle Rate is roughly the same)
    Turn 3 Anything: 16% (about 90-10 in terms of Combo to Sigarda (or other 6 target) since Sire is useless at this point. Current target (tyrant) may be underwhelming.)
    Turn 4+/Mulligan to Oblivion: 16%

    So not great-ish - the aim is to foremost decrease the fizzle rate and decrease the "Turn 4+/Mulligan to Oblivion" percentage. Maybe the living wish plan will help in both those fronts. In terms of protection and blue draw . . . honestly not sure at all waht to do about that.

    Edit - Note: I don't know why the combo % is so much higher than the Sire %, the numbers would lead me to believe that the reverse would be true. Perhaps this is because I subconsciously mulliganed towards the combo? Additionally, if you so desire - if you didn't pact for the rider and you're using Evolution you could just get Sire instead . . .

  10. #30

    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    The list I'm currently testing is something like this:

    3 [VMA:321] Tropical Island
    4 [EXP:25] Misty Rainforest
    4 [EXP:17] Polluted Delta
    4 [ME2:159] Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 [NPH:106] Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 [TMP:294] Lotus Petal
    4 [MMQ:61] Brainstorm
    4 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
    4 [WAR:206] Neoform
    4 [EMN:155] Eldritch Evolution
    3 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
    4 [A25:189] Summoner's Pact
    2 [AVR:106] Griselbrand
    3 [JR:37] Living Wish
    4 [MMQ:255] Land Grant
    2 [NPH:118] Noxious Revival
    3 [UMA:175] Nourishing Shoal
    SB: 1 [TSP:8] Children of Korlis
    SB: 1 [ISD:61] Laboratory Maniac
    SB: 1 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
    SB: 2 [DST:21] Echoing Truth
    SB: 1 [TMP:330] Wasteland
    SB: 2 [WWK:132] Bojuka Bog
    SB: 2 [WAR:220] Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
    SB: 1 [DIS:34] Tidespout Tyrant
    SB: 4 [A25:222] Chalice of the Void // SB: 4 [JR:83] Force of Will // SB: 4 [LRW:79] Ponder

    The list I was trying before I made the above post looked something like this:

    3 [VMA:321] Tropical Island
    1 [EXP:25] Misty Rainforest
    1 [EXP:17] Polluted Delta
    4 [ME2:159] Elvish Spirit Guide
    3 [NPH:106] Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 [TMP:294] Lotus Petal
    4 [MMQ:61] Brainstorm
    4 [LRW:79] Ponder
    4 [JR:83] Force of Will
    3 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
    4 [WAR:206] Neoform
    4 [EMN:155] Eldritch Evolution
    3 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
    4 [A25:189] Summoner's Pact
    2 [AVR:106] Griselbrand
    3 [UMA:175] Nourishing Shoal
    3 [JR:37] Living Wish
    4 [MMQ:255] Land Grant
    2 [NPH:118] Noxious Revival
    SB: 1 [TSP:8] Children of Korlis
    SB: 1 [ISD:61] Laboratory Maniac
    SB: 1 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
    SB: 2 [DST:21] Echoing Truth
    SB: 1 [TMP:330] Wasteland
    SB: 2 [WWK:132] Bojuka Bog
    SB: 2 [WAR:220] Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
    SB: 1 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
    SB: 1 [DIS:34] Tidespout Tyrant
    SB: 3 [A25:222] Chalice of the Void

    The second list had a pretty solid T1 Griselbrand rate but I wasn't super thrilled with how often I drew 14 and died to pacts. The odds are probably fairly low but... meh. I haven't really done any testing at all with the first list yet and still think there's probably a lot of room to play with the second.

    There's also almost certainly some amount of value to be gained from testing a stifle variant (especially since the new split-card stifle in one of the recent sets lets us play more stifles without hurting the green count too much) but I haven't had time to test that either. The second list is almost certainly thin on mana sources; I play the Noxious Revival to act as extra copies of Lotus Petal when comboing off (the deck can only make 9 mana without chancellor on a T1 combo, wish+ lab man is 5, wish + children is 3, and comboing is 2/3), but I haven't found any other good free sources of mana that are maindeckable).

    Both lists need more testing, but this is where I'm at right now.

  11. #31
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    Very interesting, you're going all in on the Combo, ignoring the Sire backup plan that my list has. What is your fizzle rate once you get grizzel in play?

  12. #32
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo


    // 60 Maindeck
    // 8 Artifact
    2 Zuran Orb
    4 Lotus Petal
    2 Chrome Mox

    // 4 Creature
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide

    // 12 Enchantment
    4 Lich
    4 Lich's Mastery
    4 Nefarious Lich

    // 19 Instant
    4 Soul Spike
    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Cabal Ritual
    4 Weather the Storm
    3 Life Goes On

    // 14 Land
    8 Swamp
    2 Lake of the Dead
    4 Bayou

    // 3 Sorcery
    2 Grapeshot
    1 Tendrils of Agony


    still haven't figured out a better from decking myself and didn't really want to go lab man. any ideas? tendrils can't actually kill if it means i'll get decked.
    -rob

  13. #33
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    Re: Nourishing Lichless Combo

    I think lists with Lich belong in the actual Nourishing Lich thread - this deck is more for the combo with Neoform/Eldritch Evolution into Sire of Insanity or into the Combo Kill for Grisslebrand. The name was just a fun reference to the Nourshing Shoal usage that the combo portion of this deck employs, which was used in a similar context in the Original Nourshing Lich deck.

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