Nourishing Lichless Combo

[Cire]

Nourishing Lich is an (in)famous deck on these forums. The combo you get nefarious lich into play which draws you cards when you gain life. So pitching Autochthon Wurm to nourishing shoal draws you 15 cards then you win by pitching these to sickening dreams (you remove the cards you just pitched per the clause on lich...tendrils could deck you due to the life gain). This deck is not Nourishing Lich, but it does rely on nourishing shoal and autochthon wurm. The namesake card of nefarious lich is not in this deck and that is where this deck gets its terrible name.

The combo relies on having Allosaurus Rider and either Eldritch Evolution or the newly released card Neoform in your hand. The combo is simple, you get either Neoform or Eldritch Evolution into your hand, play Allosaurus Rider (or search for the Rider with Summoner's Pact) and then Evolve into a Griselbrand. Once you have Griselbrand in play you pay up to 14 life to get a nourishing shoal into your hand. Once you have nourishing shoal in hand, pitch autochthon wurm (or search for a autochthon wurm to pitch) and repeat the process until you've drawn your library. Then either play a Laboratory Maniac and draw till you win, or cast Lightning Storm.

Rough math on this combo was: the chances of drawing a single copy in your opening of a card you have "8" copies of: 1-HYPGEOMDIST(1,7,8,60) = 57.82%. For the combo, assuming you have all the land + accel + green cards, you should be able to get a Grisslebrand into play turn 1 about 33.44% of the time (chances of Rider/Pact + Neoform/Evolve) . Then you have about a 73.58% chance (1-HYPGEOMDIST(1,1,14,53)) of getting a nourishing in two activations and thereby having a chance to go off. So that's a 25.60% chance of a turn 1 win (with no protection and assuming land + accel + green cards).

Granted the deck, at the moment has no protection or draw to improve the percentage. This thread is to possibly improve on that - either through card choices or by slowing it down a turn. At the moment it's just a decently consistent turn 1 kill for Legacy. Additionally, we need to figure out the correct land count, the correct kill package, and anything else that we can possible remove to make room for protection. Why develop this combo? 1) The combo is a 2 card combo but is in effect cheaper than Oops all Spells (2-3 mana instead of 4, and you can run land), but it has no protection and is set to go off turn 1/2. 2) decently consistent - with a "bad math" turn 1 win percent of one out of every 4 games, 3) it is hilarious - it doesn't run Lich, but for those of us who enjoyed the old Nourishing Lich deck, pitching a wurm to shoal is the height of MTG.

Rough Draft

10 Lands

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand

4 Summoner's Pact
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Manamorphose
4 Lotus Petal

4 "Win Cards"

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Edit

Current List:


4 Tropical Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Island
1 Forest

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
3 Vine Dryad
3 Skyshroud Cutter
2 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Sire of Insanity
1 Carnage Tyrant
1 Griselbrand
1 Empyrial Archangel
1 Borborygmos Enraged

4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Lotus Petal
3 Manamorphose