Oh how a month changes things! With some help from a busted new mechanic, of course.
Again, suppressed results from lack of paper event, and so on. Computationally, we should be about 41 points. However, honestly, it doesn't seem, to me, that Omni is really dominating or doing much. So, I am going to cut to the top 8.
4C Control (Snowko, Czech Pile and more!)
Grixis Tempo
RUG Delver
Eldrazi Stompy
ANT
Patriot Delver
BUG Delver
Bomberman
So, frame is intact, I will work throughout the day to update and move the threads.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Whoopsy-daisy, I forgot what day it was. The May update will come tomorrow morning, a little too late for me today to start it now.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
How do the results get categorized into archetypes?
Looking back at last month, I assume that most of "Grixis Pyromancer", "Patriot Delver" and "BUG Delver" are the three variations of Lurrus Delver and "Bomberman" is mostly Zirda Combo.
4C is interesting. I guess some of it would be Yorion Control, some would be regular companion-less Snowko, and some would be Miracles (including Lurrus Miracles), but it would be interesting to see the breakdown.
Well, yeah, the results are still rather screwy, because Lurrus decks are still clouding results. The difference between Miracles and 4c is clear, if it has Miracle cards in there, it is Miracles and not 4c. 4c is what is left after that.
The question is, what now? While Grixis and TA results were mainly fueled by the now banned Lurrus, even post post ban, Grixis has put up results. TA has not. So, I am inclined to cut TA. Our computational level should be about 37 points, but, like has been usual, our suppressed results has not given us much divergence. RUG Delver is in, along with Miracles, Infect, 4c and Lands. Now, "Fish" is actually Esper Vial and that clearly has enough points.
Also, I am inclined to exclude Gyruda for the moment, until the deck demonstrates that it can win through the Companion rule change.
RUG Delver
Grixis Delver
4c Control
Miracles
Infect
R/G Lands
We don't have a thread for a real Esper Vial deck. I could reuse Bahra's Spicy Popcorn thread, but that hardly is the same deck. Might just have to hold off on that deck while I work up a thread.
Questions? Comments? Complaints? I will move threads around later today.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Well, I took a peak in and, wow, the data for June is ragged and sparse. I am inclined to not even bother drawing anything from it. Unless anyone has some compelling reason to, I think I will just hold off and update for July on August 7th.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Alright, honestly, I dropped the ball. Data was ragged, data was low and frankly I forgot a couple times.
But, new year, new process I am going to try. Since we are still in a low-data era and likely to stay in one, I am going to do a bi-monthly analysis for this year.
So, with this new process (I had to manually merge the data), here is what the cutoff looks like with November and December 2020's data:
1º 4c Control 102 24º Infect 22 2º Death and Taxes 95 25º Lands 21 3º Other 83 26º Reanimator 21 4º Temur Delver 68 27º Eldrazi Stompy 20 5º Hogaak 66 28º Temur 19 6º Elves 59 29º 4c Loam 17 7º Red Prison 56 30º Turbo Depths 17 8º Goblins 52 31º Jeskai 16 9º Grixis Delver 40 32º Merfolks 15 10º Ninjas 40 33º Dredge 14 11º All Spells 39 34º UBx Shadow 14 12º Aluren 38 35º Painters 13 13º OmniTell 35 36º Pox 13 14º Cephalid Breakfast 34 37º Sultai Delver 8 15º Burn 33 38º Deadguy Ale 7 16º Bant 32 39º Miracles 7 17º 12 Post 31 40º Ad Nauseam Tendrils 6 18º Mill 31 41º Bomberman 6 19º Maverick 29 42º Enchantress 6 20º Stoneblade 28 43º Esper Vial 6 21º Doomsday 27 44º Grixis Control 6 22º Izzet Delver 25 45º Lutri Deck 6 23º Urza 23 Total: 1346 Cutoff: 47.11
So, this means we have 7 Decks to Beat:
4C Control
Death and Taxes
RUG Delver
Hogaak (Placeholder thread, seems we don't actually have a dedicated Hogaak thread?)
Elves
Dragon/Red/Moon Stompy
Goblins
I'll move the thread a little later today. Any comments welcome. Also if anyone knows a more appropriate thread for Hogaak, let me know.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Whoops, forgot what month it was. I should have an update out this week, with the combined data for January and February.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
OK, here we go, the combined data for January and February of 2021. Obviously with Valki getting hit with the Cascade nerf-bat, I did not consider it, so we will take the other top 8 decks:
1º Temur Delver 86 27º Turbo Depths 25 2º Ninjas 77 28º Sultai 22 3º Death and Taxes 70 29º Merfolks 21 4º All Spells 61 30º Doomsday 19 5º Valki Cascade 61 31º Mono Black 15 6º Elves 57 32º Urza 15 7º Aluren 56 33º Bomberman 14 8º OmniTell 54 34º Mill 14 9º Maverick 50 35º Hogaak 13 10º 4c Control 49 36º Mono Blue 13 11º Jeskai 47 37º Slivers 13 12º Dredge 45 38º Buried Phoenix 9 13º Stoneblade 45 39º Deadguy Ale 9 14º Other 42 40º Tin Fins 9 15º 12 Post 40 41º Sultai Delver 8 16º Burn 40 42º UBx Shadow 8 17º Bant 39 43º Esper Vial 7 18º Turbo Depths 38 44º Food Chain 7 19º Infect 36 45º Sneak and Show 7 20º Eldrazi Stompy 34 46º The Epic Storm 7 21º Red Prison 34 47º Jund 6 22º Cephalid Breakfast 33 48º Landstill 6 23º Izzet Delver 33 49º Mono Black Aggro 6 24º Goblins 30 50º Pox 6 25º Temur 30 51º Tibalt Cascade 6 26º Reanimator 27
Our cut-off here is 51 points, meaning that Maverick just makes it and 4C Control just misses.
RUG Delver
Ninjas!
Death & Taxes
Oops, All Spells!
Elves!
Aluren
Omnitell
Maverick
As always, I welcome any comments, questions or concerns. Interesting results that, having not really looked into the data, would not quite have expected.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
All Spells Primer under construction: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...Tl7utWpLo0/pub
PM me if you want to contribute!
Turbo Depths appears twice --- 18th place with 38 points and 27th place with 25 points.
Presumably, either these are meant to be two different decks or Turbo Depths actually has 63 points and should be higher?
Edit: There's also Valki Cascade at 5th place and Tibalt Cascade at the bottom of the table. Same deck?
Post MH2 win rates are varying wildly challenge to challenge. I think delver can be contained by Bant miracles, which got significantly powered up by endurance and prismatic ending.
I think we are in a cyclical A. blue tempo (rug/ur delver) -> B. blue control (Bant) -> C. blue a+b (s&s/doomsday) -> A. tempo meta. Which is pretty healthy imo.
Fair non-blue is doing quite well too in the B position (maverick/lands/elves) or c position (titanpost)
Do people think I am correct? Do people like this or prefer brewing to beat an obvious best deck? Which deck can take advantage of this the best? How should one construct your sideboard?
For example, curses is very favoured against C, very unfavoured vs A and around even vs B. Should I make it less bad vs A? Or concentrate flex’s on B. (Urza’s saga/choke/other control hate) and hope to delver is getting endurance’d to death?
Whoops, I am real late on this. Kind of slammed here at work though, so I think I will just do a 4 month recap in July, catching all of March, April, May and June. Also, I'll try not to miss anything on the merged data.
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
March, April, May, June 2021 merged:
1º Izzet Delver 235 29º Tin Fins 37 2º Death and Taxes 200 30º UBx Shadow 31 3º Elves 189 31º Eldrazi Stompy 30 4º Ninjas 150 32º 4c Loam 29 5º Turbo Depths 121 33º Doomsday 29 6º Reanimator 90 34º Landstill 28 7º Miracles 85 35º Esper Vial 26 8º OmniTell 85 36º Pox 23 9º Maverick 68 37º Sultai 23 10º Other 66 38º Grixis Delver 22 11º Stoneblade 66 39º The Epic Storm 22 12º Lands 65 40º Nic Fit 17 13º Sneak and Show 65 41º 12 Post 16 14º Temur Delver 64 42º Humans 16 15º Food Chain 57 43º Mill 16 16º Infect 54 44º MUD 15 17º Burn 51 45º Esper 14 18º Dredge 50 46º Slivers 14 19º Painters 49 47º Bomberman 13 20º All Spells 46 48º Deadguy Ale 13 21º 4c Control 45 49º Jeskai 11 22º Ad Nauseam Tendrils 41 50º Affinity 9 23º Goblins 41 51º Jund 8 24º Hogaak 40 52º Buried Phoenix 7 25º Cephalid Breakfast 39 53º Enchantress 7 26º Aluren 38 54º Merfolks 6 27º Red Prison 38 55º Mono Black 6 28º Grixis Control 37
Oh boy, that was a good bit a data. Seemed fairly clear, aside the nebulous category of "Bant" which really were all Miracles decks, that just happen to run Green. So, with that merged, Miracles makes it (which makes perfect sense, really). Clean cut off too, 90.5 points, giving us a clear top 8. Sorry Maverick, (still love you).
UR Delver
Death & Taxes
Elves!
Ninjas
Turbo Depths
BR Reanimator
Miracles
Omnitell
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Is GW depths counted within Turbo Depths?
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
This is a pretty good summary of the format.
I believe in paper decks like food chain and aluren are very good and should be grouped with 4c control
It's been pretty hard to get really good data lately, TCDecks data is not very reliable, events are missing there and sometimes the classification is off.
I am more than happy to reconsider how we do the Decks To Beat here, but what should we consider as a process? It's not clear to me how to "extract" it from the Data Collection program exactly. Any ideas? Or should we just move to a purely subjective system?
"The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
—Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order
Yah that was more of a subjective take, but since it was from one of the better grinders I thought it was wor th mentioning.
If you are fine with the data collection project data you would just rank all the decks by the winrate CI min, which naturally takes into account sample size. Or if you believe tiers are popularity not power just rank it by play percentage. The time period could be anything you want.
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