Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

[FTW]

We're eager to know what brainstorm shell is at the top!
Call it my 6th sense, but I have a sneaky suspicion it might also include Delver of Secrets and Force of Will.

I have a sneaky suspicion it will include Brainstorm, FoW, Ponder, Preordain, Volcanic Island, Lightning Bolt, and maybe Spell Pierce.... but the question is which 1R card will it be?

[PirateKing]

I have a sneaky suspicion it will include Brainstorm, FoW, Ponder, Preordain, Volcanic Island, Lightning Bolt, and maybe Spell Pierce.... but the question is which 1R card will it be?

Anaba Ancestor obviously. Don't embarrass yourself.

Either way, this is good work, looking forward to new charts monthly.

Thanks again H

[H]

So, ban day, but also DTB day today:




So we have 3116 results, 3.4% of that is (rounded) 106.

The gives us 11 (!) decks to beat. Seems that even with Breach's sort of dominance, people we having decent results with a variety of stuff.

Miracles
UR Burn
Breach
Eldrazi
4c Control
D&T
Infect
OmniTell

Those are the top 8. If we continue on to the arithmetical 11:

Dragon Stompy
Hogaak
RUG Delver

But, now, going into March, we have to consider the new shake-up that will be Breach decks leaving, pretty much as quickly as they came.

[FTW]

Thanks for updating this H!

So the #1 1R card advantage engine for Xerox turned out to be Dreadhorde Arcanist over Underworld Breach. (Anaba Ancestor is too OP, there's a gentleman's agreement not to run it).

3 Oko decks and 2 Delver decks in the DTB, one of each higher than Breach, yet they still banned Breach even though the fair decks it beats up on were more dominant. How much higher can Snowko climb?

[pettdan]

Thanks for the update! Give this man a well deserved vote for admin!

[Fox]

Landstill is officially back!

[H]

How much higher can Snowko climb?

I'm not sure. Now that, I think, it will have the target on it's back, what can UR Delver do to get some points up on it? Maybe go to notional Grixis for the Sanctuary/Painful Truths package out of the board?

Also, how good is UG Omni vs Snoko? Because I could see that rising some, which then will likely mean that Infect (and maybe Shadow) come up a bit, since they are "fast clock" decks. Also, I'm not sure if Breach's exist is good news for most Eldrazi or bad news.

We will have to wait and see the "full" fallout in a couple weeks. In the meantime, I think one needs to have a fairly solid plan vs. 4c/5c, UR Delver, and Snoko right now.

[H]

Last day of the month! So, some news. One, as usual, I will update the information next Tuesday for March. Naturally, I think results will be a little scarce, but it is what it is now.

Two, as some might have noticed, I now have mod-powers, so I can both update the official thread as well as this one. I can also move topics once we see what makes it into the DTB section.

So, why update two places? Well, the official thread will remain locked. This one will remain open, so everyone can comment, or raise concerns, and so on.

[pettdan]

Nice, congratulations! And thanks for the work you put into this and admining!

[H]

In anticipation, I had a glance at the data beforehand. It is likely that Miracles will be qualified as a DTB. Unfortunately though, we do not have a currently open Miracles thread.

Is anyone willing/qualified to write something of a new primer for more "contemporary" Miracles decks?

[Fox]

In anticipation, I had a glance at the data beforehand. It is likely that Miracles will be qualified as a DTB. Unfortunately though, we do not have a currently open Miracles thread.

Is anyone willing/qualified to write something of a new primer for more "contemporary" Miracles decks?

I don’t know that it really qualifies as a different deck than the other 4c Oko Pile. Unless Hymn-spam becomes a successful tactic, the UW core will not take the easy way out and spam Counterbalance. Until such a time, the white-using 4c Oko just has a better m/u vs Marit Lage and a generally better Wrath effect than Dead of Winter.

Deep down everyone knows Oko needs to go since he's the FTK of PWs, and we shouldn't be pretending black vs white-using 4c Oko represents diversity; add them up.

[H]

Well, I don't necessarily disagree with just keeping the existent thread. In fact, I actually have no idea why it is locked at all. If no one wants to write a new primer, maybe because it isn't needed, or maybe just because no one wants to, I will just unlock it.

[H]

March Update:



So, this month has both suppressed results, from the ongoing fact that the pandemic has all but eliminated all paper results, and the fact of the number one deck there being Banned already.

So, computationally, our outcome should be a cutoff of 54 points. Since results were low, I don't think we got the full divergence we usually would, since that would give us a "top" 11 decks (minus one banned), and I think even 10 is too many.

As I result, I am going to just take the "next" top 8 decks, giving us:
Death and Taxes
Miracles
UR Delver
BUG Midrange/Control
Eldrazi
RUG Delver
4C Control
OmniTell

The issue at hand is that we really don't have an 4C Control thread. I am working on a primer now, I hope to have it done in the next couple days. Just trying to source some matchup information for a primer at the moment.

Questions, comments, concerns?

I will update the official thread later today and move threads today as well.

[caiomarcos]

Posting only to congratulate and give thanks for the effort and work put on this.
I really like to follow and appreciate this is being done.

[FTW]

Thanks for putting the work into keeping this up!

I still vote the Breach thread gets moved to the DTB for lulz :P

[BirdsOfParadise]

I have been missing this, H is a hero, this makes the Source substantially more valuable, and I vote for H as a Top N Most Constructive Poster on the Source for some quite small value of N.

[Fox]

So Oko is running the format (since 4c Oko is 4c miracles is 3-4c BUGgy Oko) by a pretty wide margin. Interested in seeing how bad the consolidation around Oko is next month, without Breach disguising the problem.

[ahg113]

So is there a lot of difference of Oko running rampant and W&6 from a few decision cycles ago? Obviously, Oko has keyword awesome. Is there a realistic chance Oko gets banned in the next or following reveal?

[FTW]

So is there a lot of difference of Oko running rampant and W&6 from a few decision cycles ago? Obviously, Oko has keyword awesome. Is there a realistic chance Oko gets banned in the next or following reveal?

There's a big one. W6 stops you from reaching the mana to cast Oko.

[H]

Realistic chance? Sure. But I don't think it is particularly probable at this point. Without a GP on the horizon, and without Oko somehow showing some insane win percentage (like Breech did), I don't foresee it really going anywhere. It is just plain good and widely played because it is good, which makes it show up in T8 results in large numbers.