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Thread: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out there?

  1. #21

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Safety View Post
    The big mistake WOTC made was making a value statement (Reserved List) about collecting while the cards in question were still being widely used for tournament play. Collector demand, I would presume, is much lower than player demand. So the obvious opportunity for taking advantage of that demand is making fakes to support the player base. If it's just a collectable then they can be scrutinized appropriately by buyers/sellers and fakes are fairly well squashed, especially with the grading services that have popped up for collectables. On the other hand, if there are so many in circulation/demand for actual use, with an 'unregulated' secondary market, the chance for fakes is increased. Until Legacy/Vintage/Commander are no longer played, the Reserved List creates an huge opportunity/risk for fakes. It's the whole 'make something illegal you create a black market' principle, in this case it isn't illegal, but the cards can't be reprinted.
    I think this depends on how you measure demand. Sure I don't think there's as many collectors as players, but collectors are willing to fork over more money for game pieces than players.

  2. #22
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    I think this depends on how you measure demand. Sure I don't think there's as many collectors as players, but collectors are willing to fork over more money for game pieces than players.
    Sure, they are willing to pay more, but they are also *likely* willing to pay to get them graded and authorized before they purchase. That regulates the collector's market effectively. The players however are looking for usable pieces, not collector's pieces that live in a plastic case. That's where the lower scrutiny level creates a window for forgeries. I don't think, and I'm willing to be corrected here, that collectors aren't getting punished by the black market to anywhere near the extent as active players.
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  3. #23

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Safety View Post
    Sure, they are willing to pay more, but they are also *likely* willing to pay to get them graded and authorized before they purchase. That regulates the collector's market effectively. The players however are looking for usable pieces, not collector's pieces that live in a plastic case. That's where the lower scrutiny level creates a window for forgeries. I don't think, and I'm willing to be corrected here, that collectors aren't getting punished by the black market to anywhere near the extent as active players.
    What has to collector to lose?

    The player can get a game loss or a DQ if spotted.
    The collector at most gets a hit to the ego and -money which he should have enough to begin with to buy something so expensive to not do anything with it.

    A significant portion of the reserved list is random garbage that nobody would remotely care about anyway.
    The argument is just for show.
    At this point though they can't back out anymore.

    Actually, pricing people out of older formats is good for WotC since they want to sell the new stuff.
    This is a big maybe but maybe they are actively printing stuff to make formats so bad that people leave to newer ones.

  4. #24

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Even if my opponent has a fake card... why would I care? It doesn't change the actual game state at all. I bet there is some healthy percentage of players that already use proxies and have been for years and no one checks at all. Which IMO is just a good idea. Why should each average player plunk down 2 grand cash because WOTC made a bad business decision years ago?

    If I was mid-match and my opponent got DQ'd over a proxy, I would be mad that I didn't get to beat them legitimately.

  5. #25
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    There is no guarantee.

    Fakes that are indistinguishable from the real thing are, for all intents and purposes, the real thing. I don't know why people won't internalize this.
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  6. #26
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus View Post
    Even if my opponent has a fake card... why would I care? It doesn't change the actual game state at all. I bet there is some healthy percentage of players that already use proxies and have been for years and no one checks at all. Which IMO is just a good idea. Why should each average player plunk down 2 grand cash because WOTC made a bad business decision years ago?

    If I was mid-match and my opponent got DQ'd over a proxy, I would be mad that I didn't get to beat them legitimately.
    This is the Way.

    They wanted Standard to be the cash cow; so it is. If Standard be for whales, let Eternal be for freemium players that are willing and/or only able to roll out with proxies, in any form. I don't care if it's a krangled Island that has "Underground Sea" Sharpied onto it, or a printout from mtgprint (side note, someone please kick the bozos that bought MTG Press, they borked the shit out of it), or some slick-as-shit Faux Beta that only the most dedicated card connoisseur would be able to spot, because the actual gameplay is not altered in the fucking slightest by any of these factors. Especially since access to Gatherer is essentially ubiquitous and arguably already a requisite for any game of Magic where questions arise about wording or rulings, there's just no difference between someone using an expanded deck of playing cards with a matrix and someone playing a full 75 of real cards from Revised to the latest in Standard. It just doesn't matter to me.
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  7. #27

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.
    As the art world well knows, yes, you can. These days you can fake anything and make it virtually undistinguishable of the real thing, in fact, for modern* processes like these cards, you can make as real as the real thing. What you may argue is that the cost do this would largely surpass what you could make selling these fakes, and in there you would be absolutely right.

    * modern when compared to a 17th century painting, or a 13th century manuscript.

  8. #28
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by jmlima View Post
    As the art world well knows, yes, you can. These days you can fake anything and make it virtually undistinguishable of the real thing, in fact, for modern* processes like these cards, you can make as real as the real thing. What you may argue is that the cost do this would largely surpass what you could make selling these fakes, and in there you would be absolutely right.

    * modern when compared to a 17th century painting, or a 13th century manuscript.
    OK, "as real as the real thing" and the real thing aren't really the same, but if we can put that aside, then what we have is a fundamental problem with scaling. The technical challenges and the cooperation involved are so significant that they defeat the profitability of the operation to produce "perfect" fakes. Thus, there are very good fakes in circulation, but not ones incapable of being detected.

  9. #29

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    ...Thus, there are very good fakes in circulation, but not ones incapable of being detected.
    I would never be as adamant as that in what concerns counterfeiting. Even highly paid specialists can be fooled, much quicker your sunday judge with his ebay bought infallible loupe:

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90170415...fake-paintings

    Ultimately, if someone has the resources and is willing, then it can be done, it nobody can be arsed or has the resources, then it cannot be done. The main problem with MtG cards is that a) it's not a one-off piece that can reap a massive RoI (ex, a painting) b) It's not something you can sell or disperse a lot of it without an immediate crash of confidence and price (ex, currency).

    TL;DR: Technically perfectly possible, economically, not viable unless you suddenly find the entire setup to do it on an abandoned warehouse (which is an interesting example, since bankrupt companies sometimes sell on the market the most remarkable machinery and supplies for peanuts)

  10. #30

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by jmlima View Post
    I would never be as adamant as that in what concerns counterfeiting. Even highly paid specialists can be fooled, much quicker your sunday judge with his ebay bought infallible loupe:

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90170415...fake-paintings

    Ultimately, if someone has the resources and is willing, then it can be done, it nobody can be arsed or has the resources, then it cannot be done. The main problem with MtG cards is that a) it's not a one-off piece that can reap a massive RoI (ex, a painting) b) It's not something you can sell or disperse a lot of it without an immediate crash of confidence and price (ex, currency).

    TL;DR: Technically perfectly possible, economically, not viable unless you suddenly find the entire setup to do it on an abandoned warehouse (which is an interesting example, since bankrupt companies sometimes sell on the market the most remarkable machinery and supplies for peanuts)
    The analysis that goes into judging the authenticity of a magic card doesn't require all this though.
    The goal is to pass as a real card to be sold once. Not to create a replica that is effectively an expansion of the supply.

  11. #31

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?
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  12. #32

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Why try to counterfeit rl cards when there are plenty of modern cards that are much more liquid and much less scrutinized? Hell, WOTC QC and the 5 variants they make of every card now makes it difficult to tell what is real anymore. There are a ton of expensive modern cards printed before the hologram was a thing too (if that was an issue). At the end of the day you are probably selling 1000 cards for 2$ a pop, that maybe a handful will be laundered and actually get identified, faster than trying to sell a single 1000$+ card that will definitely get scrutinized way more.

  13. #33

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by HdH_Cthulhu View Post
    But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?
    Because they have that die and ink to check fake Benjamin's.
    To fake an underground sea u need to convince one guy who read a guide online and doesn't know what damage can and can't be done by "leaving it in a box in the attic"

  14. #34

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by HdH_Cthulhu View Post
    But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?
    Because it's bloody harder to do. (also subject to much harsher legal penalties if caught)

  15. #35

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Because they have that die and ink to check fake Benjamin's.
    To fake an underground sea u need to convince one guy who read a guide online and doesn't know what damage can and can't be done by "leaving it in a box in the attic"
    Maybe if you fake just 1 underground sea yeah sure. But is that even worth it? Getting all that equipment and everything for just 1 card? You probably have go with 20 cards but at this point someone will notice.

    I mean you can probably sell 1 fake underground sea every other month or something without being cought... still super risky
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  16. #36

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    Quote Originally Posted by HdH_Cthulhu View Post
    Maybe if you fake just 1 underground sea yeah sure. But is that even worth it? Getting all that equipment and everything for just 1 card? You probably have go with 20 cards but at this point someone will notice.

    I mean you can probably sell 1 fake underground sea every other month or something without being cought... still super risky
    Underground seas are over 600 at heavy play.

  17. #37
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    i assume its easier to fakeprint moxen than actual bank notes and that has been done.

    now the question is, is it worth it. i kinda doubt the market is big enough to liquidate fakes without crashing it or make ppl suspicious.

    long story short, its silly to pay outrageos prices for cards if you want to play with them. get proxies directly.

    as for collectors, they can develop tools to uncover fakes.

    at what point is a fake an original anyway?
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  18. #38
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    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    You'd think there would be some non-minority group of people in the Venn diagram intersection of "player" and "collector" who would strongly argue for proxies as a means to play the game without damaging their, uh, InVeStMeNtS.

    Personally I don't think I'll ever fuck with a playgroup that isn't okay with proxy cards. I'm never spending thousands of dollars on land cards lol. In my area nobody in EDH seems to care and nobody around here gives a shit about Vintage or Legacy, which used to really bother me but I can't care about that anymore.
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  19. #39

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    lol imagine caring about old pieces of cardboard you can't ever play with

  20. #40

    Re: What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests arenít already out the

    I've been playing with undetectable fakes at tournies since 95, it's really not that hard (I have one of the original printers that wizards used back in the day, "fell off a truck")

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