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Thread: [Deck] Red Death

  1. #41
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    CRET belcher, as EwokSlayer proved last weekend is quite viable and stable. No, just because you are going second doesn't mean you will lose. It does mean CRET has the advantage, and will likely do something on its turn two.
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  2. #42
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    belcher isn't that consistent, and its not consistent in vintage either where the belcher player plays REBs just to counter forces. How the fuck do you know that if I don't go first I lose? From what I see, belcher has a very low turn 1 win percentage and that Red death does not have a negative match-up against it. Belcher haven't seen play in a long time because of its inconsistency. May I remind you that FS is not legal at the GP so pact of negation isn't a viable protection option. In general, Red Death have a positive match-up against all combo decks, especailly solidarity and to a lesser extent storm combos. The only combo deck that cause Red Death to stutter is Flash Hulk, but the deck makes all aggro control look stupid.

    Don't fucking say that I'm going to lose just because i go second, thats clearly not the case. I can bet you 1,000 dollars that you won't get even 3 turn 1 wins in a row unless you stack your deck or cheat. Anyhow, if you want to test I got time on saturdays and sundays, just PM me.
    As was already stated by Noobslayer before me, EwokSlayers performance at the DLD3 shows the deck isn't a jank pile of inconsistancy and if it goes first, you may not flat out lose, but it's giving belcher a strong advantage in the game.
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  3. #43
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    Don't fucking say that I'm going to lose just because i go second, thats clearly not the case. I can bet you 1,000 dollars that you won't get even 3 turn 1 wins in a row unless you stack your deck or cheat. Anyhow, if you want to test I got time on saturdays and sundays, just PM me.

    First of all, I don't appreciate your language when responding to my post. I've just saw Ewokslayer do that all day at Kaddy's Dual Land Draft III. CRET belcher does not win all the time on turn 1, but a lot of the time they can either get belcher in play or cast empty the warrens for like 12 goblin tokens which is good game if they go first.

    I was just pointing out what I saw this past weekend in a pretty big magic tournament where most of the good players which came up to Syracuse to attend.

    I do agree Red Death has a very good game against combo and control, but when a deck that can go off turn 1 and turn 2 consistenly has to raise some concerns. I love the deck, but I was just pointing out what I saw.
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  4. #44

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by nickrit2000 View Post
    First of all, I don't appreciate your language when responding to my post. I've just saw Ewokslayer do that all day at Kaddy's Dual Land Draft III. CRET belcher does not win all the time on turn 1, but a lot of the time they can either get belcher in play or cast empty the warrens for like 12 goblin tokens which is good game if they go first.

    I was just pointing out what I saw this past weekend in a pretty big magic tournament where most of the good players which came up to Syracuse to attend.

    I do agree Red Death has a very good game against combo and control, but when a deck that can go off turn 1 and turn 2 consistenly has to raise some concerns. I love the deck, but I was just pointing out what I saw.
    consistent |kənˈsistənt| adjective (of a person, behavior, or process) unchanging in achievement or effect over a period of time : manufacturing processes require a consistent approach. • compatible or in agreement with something : the injuries are consistent with falling from a great height. • (of an argument or set of ideas) not containing any logical contradictions : a consistent explanation.

    The deck is clearly not consistent, I value consistency highly and a deck that can't break the 80% first turn win level isn't consistent. Grim Long is consistent, belcher is NOT.

    Red Death can consistently disrupt you, as well as consistently beat you, while belcher cannot consistently ETW or belch. This is a red death thread, so don't come here and argue about the consistency of Belcher. I said the deck wasn't a main concern, as SB cards and good draws remedy it.

    Go learn what consistent mean before you call the deck consistent. And don't troll here if your not giving helpful advice for red death.

  5. #45
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    The deck is clearly not consistent, I value consistency highly and a deck that can't break the 80% first turn win level isn't consistent. Grim Long is consistent, belcher is NOT.
    Grim Long is only consistent because of the amount of broken acceleration, Tutors, and high and diverse threat density. THIS IS NOT FUCKING TYPE 1!!!
    Type 1 has Yawgmoth's Will, Lotus, and more shaz. This format is slightly slower than Type 1. Because it's slower than Type 1, Belcher is actually viable... especially with a threat density of 11 cards. I know Grim Long has more, but it requires for them to work together or else it wont work. In Belcher, it's just drop the Belcher....

    Red Death can consistently disrupt you, as well as consistently beat you, while belcher cannot consistently ETW or belch. This is a red death thread, so don't come here and argue about the consistency of Belcher. I said the deck wasn't a main concern, as SB cards and good draws remedy it.

    That's a fuckton of acceleration:

    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Land Grant
    1 Taiga
    1 Bayou

    4 Lion's Eye Diamond

    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Rites of Flame
    4 Desperate Ritual
    4 Seething Song
    3 Tinder Wall
    4 Wild Cantor

    So your saying it cannot consistently Belch or EtW? Gee, it can mulligan the hell out of itself, and still have a mass of accleration and a threat in that hand... consistently.


    Go learn what consistent mean before you call the deck consistent. And don't troll here if your not giving helpful advice for red death.
    I do not see the opening hands in Red Death being consistent. I do not see drawing blindly for a threat being consistent. I do not see it's Game 1 against Threshold being consistent. I especially do not see it's IGGy-Pop match-up being consistent.

    belcher isn't that consistent, and its not consistent in vintage either where the belcher player plays REBs just to counter forces. How the fuck do you know that if I don't go first I lose? From what I see, belcher has a very low turn 1 win percentage and that Red death does not have a negative match-up against it. Belcher haven't seen play in a long time because of its inconsistency. May I remind you that FS is not legal at the GP so pact of negation isn't a viable protection option. In general, Red Death have a positive match-up against all combo decks, especailly solidarity and to a lesser extent storm combos. The only combo deck that cause Red Death to stutter is Flash Hulk, but the deck makes all aggro control look stupid.
    Wait.... so your saying that it cant consistently win Turn 1?

    So dropping 6 cards worth of acceleration, Burning Wish -> Infernal Tutor into a Belcher isnt consistent enough?

    Also, Red Death isnt that great against all Combo decks. IGGy-Pop is still being played in Virginia because it has a chance agaisnt decks like Bw Confidant and Red Death.

    Don't fucking say that I'm going to lose just because i go second, thats clearly not the case. I can bet you 1,000 dollars that you won't get even 3 turn 1 wins in a row unless you stack your deck or cheat.
    Duress takes out what's in their hand, not their next topdeck. They just topdeck a threat and make you stare at it from the opposite side of the board.
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  6. #46
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    consistent |kənˈsistənt| adjective (of a person, behavior, or process) unchanging in achievement or effect over a period of time : manufacturing processes require a consistent approach. ...

    I value consistency highly and a deck that can't break the 80% first turn win level isn't consistent...

    Red Death can consistently disrupt you, as well as consistently beat you...
    Go learn what consistent mean before you call the deck consistent.
    No offense to Red Death, as it is a great deck, but you are a moron. If you are going to criticize you should probably think first.

    You say 80% is not consistent, meaning that your idea of something being consistent is something that happens more than 80% of the time.

    Can Red Death disrupt its opponent on 80% of its turns, you say it can. Does Red Death win 80% of its matches? You say it does. I can almost guarantee that Red Death does not have an 80% win percentage against the format. I also can say that it does not have an 80% win percentage against CRET Belcher, which using your train of logic, it does.

    Here's some numbers to throw into the equation also:

    CRET has 11 cards that are win conditions. It has 49 cards that are mana. If you Duress them turn 1 and take a win condition, they have a 20.7% chance of drawing another. If you take mana accel, they have an 79.3 chance of drawing another. If you are on the play, and have 2 pieces of hand disruption, and cast them either on turn 1 or split up over turn 1 and 2 (if they don't go off on turn 1 anyway) then you have a decent chance of stopping them, for up to 5 turns if you take their win condition and they don't draw another in the top 5 cards.

    Red Death has 8 hand disruption spells it can cast turn 1, and 12 on turn 2 (assuming a ritualed Hippie is turn 2). To get 2 on turn 1, or a hippie for turn 2 you need Ritual.

    I think it is obvious that Red Death does not have a big advantage in this match. I understand that percentages do not always work, but it looks to be in CRET's favors if you go by the numbers.
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  7. #47

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by bigbear102 View Post
    No offense to Red Death, as it is a great deck, but you are a moron. If you are going to criticize you should probably think first.

    You say 80% is not consistent, meaning that your idea of something being consistent is something that happens more than 80% of the time.

    Can Red Death disrupt its opponent on 80% of its turns, you say it can. Does Red Death win 80% of its matches? You say it does. I can almost guarantee that Red Death does not have an 80% win percentage against the format. I also can say that it does not have an 80% win percentage against CRET Belcher, which using your train of logic, it does.

    Here's some numbers to throw into the equation also:

    CRET has 11 cards that are win conditions. It has 49 cards that are mana. If you Duress them turn 1 and take a win condition, they have a 20.7% chance of drawing another. If you take mana accel, they have an 79.3 chance of drawing another. If you are on the play, and have 2 pieces of hand disruption, and cast them either on turn 1 or split up over turn 1 and 2 (if they don't go off on turn 1 anyway) then you have a decent chance of stopping them, for up to 5 turns if you take their win condition and they don't draw another in the top 5 cards.

    Red Death has 8 hand disruption spells it can cast turn 1, and 12 on turn 2 (assuming a ritualed Hippie is turn 2). To get 2 on turn 1, or a hippie for turn 2 you need Ritual.

    I think it is obvious that Red Death does not have a big advantage in this match. I understand that percentages do not always work, but it looks to be in CRET's favors if you go by the numbers.
    Your the fucking 20 year old moron with no life that can't read right. I am 16 and this is my second year in college, so don't fucking call me a moron because I am clearly fucking smarter than you. THERE IS A 80+% CHANCE THAT I DRAW INTO DISRUPTION BY TURN 1. YOU CLEARLY HAVE NO IDEA HOW GAME BREAKING A TURN 1 DURESS, TURN 2 HYMN IS.

    Who the fuck ever said Red Death have a 80% win rate? I said 80% is CONSISTENT, and red death draws into disruption AND creatures 80% of the time, while I argued that Belcher can't go off 80% of the time on turn 1, and thats all I need. In fact, flash is faster than belcher, as Flash have a lot more turn 1-2 wins.

    I never even said Red Death have a positive match-up, I said it had a better match-up against solidarity and certain storm combos.

    The key card is Hymn to Tourach, as if I resolve one of these before they go off, there is a much higher chance that I would win. I gladly would rit a hymn and take a point of burn just to stop you first turn. Also, belcher have a lot more tendecies to take mulligans because the hand sucks, and even though you can't read, you should be able to still see that each card matters.

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  8. #48

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    The question was how to deal with Belcher, a deck that will likely be popular at the GP (regardless of what you may say, Belcher is indeed quite consistent, and it's gained a small but significant following). By extension, the question encompasses other decks that can often win in the first two turns (Hulk Flash, sometimes TES, etc.). The answer, of course, is the same: all you can do is disrupt your opponent--beyond that, there's really not too much that you can do. Duress and Hymn to Tourach are probably your best bets, as long as you have a Ritual. Beyond that, there's not much more that you can do, and so there's little point in breaking yourself up about it. I suppose you could side in Engineered Explosives for the Goblin tokens, but even that is not ideal--and it also means a significant change to the standard sideboard's composition. These will not be easy matchups since they hinge so much on your opening hand, but you're far from bereft of tools.
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:25 PM. Reason: Off-topic part deleted.

  9. #49

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Now here are the percentages:

    Dark Rit in first hand: 49.18%
    Duress: Same thing
    Hymn: Same thing

    Duress OR hymn: 98.36%

    Duress AND hymn: 27%

    Dark Rit, Duress AND hymn: 12-13%

    So basically in all my hands, I will get either a duress or a hymn.


    Yes, all i can do is disrupt them and most of the time, thats enough. The ONLY cards that belcher have that I can't touch preboard are cards they have in play, I.E. Chrome Mox (causes card disadvantage), Lotus petal, and LED. I can easily kill their measly land, and If i'm constantly disrupting them, they can't storm off and the only option left is to get a top deck wish for infernal AND ON THE SAME TURN TUTOR FOR BELCHER AND PLAY IT, this scenario is very unlikely, as they have at most 5-6 artifact mana, of which only mox is reusable, or top deck belcher (which they won't have mana to activate most of the time after playing it).

    I keep on hearing people say: Ok, I'll just play artifacts and let you beat me while I draw into things. This is clearly NOT true! Because you'll be on a 4 turn clock most of the time, and even worse if I complement my main beater with a shade or a hyppy, and you expect to draw into 7 mana and a belcher? If you top deck rituals, hyppy will eat it or I will eat it, and if you top deck belcher, you can play it, but you won't have the mana to activate it unless your a luck bag and topdeck a LED after you spent yours on casting it.(chances are 6-7%)
    You can bet your ass I'll kill your duals all the time

    Ok, you top deck a a tutor (infernal or wish)

    A) you wish for a infernal tutor, what do you do then? Let hippie eat it, duress eat it, or sac your LED and get a belcher that you can't play?
    B) You tutor for what? unless you have 3 PERMANANT mana (or draw into dark rit etc next turn) OR 9 mana you can't win! meaning it has to be 2 LEDs sitting there at least

    Again, I never said RD have a positive match-up, and belcher is capable of winning turn 1, and turn 1 duress is sometimes not enough, but my point have always been, the deck don't have consistent turn 1 wins and it sucks eggs against threshold.
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:26 PM. Reason: Off-topic part deleted.

  10. #50

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Anyways, It all comes down to these things:

    1. Does the red death player have more than just 1 duress?
    2. Does the belcher player set off turn 1?
    a) If ETW, then do you have E. Plague?
    3. Does the RD player disrupt the Belcher player enough to cripple him?
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:28 PM. Reason: Off-topic part deleted.

  11. #51
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    With the belcher matchup, it is a gunfight. Duress is definitely key, but a turn 1 specter/turn 2 hymn kind of hand seems strong as well. They are fast but you can push them over if you are fast as well. The problem is either when they turn one etw for 8+ gobbs, or when they accelerate into a turn 1-2 belcher that you can't deal with once it hits the board. Then they race for more mana to set it off before you can kill them (sometimes you can race though).
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:28 PM. Reason: Off-topic part deleted.
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  12. #52
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    I actually tested against Brian (Ewokslayer) after the tournament last Saturday with Red Death. It was not all that good for Death. After loosing the first 4 games pre-board I decided to go to post board. I won 1 of the next 4. The ones I lost were mostly to belcher since he assumed I was boarding Plague, which I was.

    Sinkhole, Wasteland, Rotting Giant, Shade, Negator, and Bolts do nothing against this particular combo deck. I would probably say its 60-40 or better for CRIT Belcher preboard and around the same post. That is the feeling I got when playing the matchup.
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  13. #53

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Everyone know that I'm not going to get a hymn or a duress 100% of the time, but data shows that every 98/100 hands I should get a hymn or duress.

    @Happy Gilmore: Well, most likely if the belcher guy have a land out, I'm gonna waste it or sinkhole it (if I don't have anything else to do). Sometimes that 1 land makes a hell of a difference. I play cabal therapy in my board as you know, so that might make my match a tiny bit better, Also, i decided to cut all my jittes and crypts in favor of leyline of the void for flash (good idea?).
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:30 PM. Reason: Off-topic part deleted.

  14. #54
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    Also, i decided to cut all my jittes and crypts in favor of leyline of the void for flash (good idea?).
    Yeah i think we need to focus on beating this deck at the moment because the legacy world is crazy for hulk flash at this moment. If the numbers are going to be huge for this deck at the gp I think we will have a shot against it if we throw the leylines maindeck but SB is also an option. Either way what should we cut and what other potential cards will be good for this matchup and not dead against others?
    Last edited by T is for TOOL; 05-02-2007 at 07:31 PM. Reason: Edited for consistency.
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  15. #55

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by nickrit2000 View Post
    Can you please explain to the Legacy community how this validates your claim on the subject of Magic: The Gathering?

    Clearly, you not that good at mathematics if you believe 98/100 percent of the time you will have either a duress of hymn. Could you please explain your statistics?

    It you want some respect, then I would strongly suggest not bashing members on the source, especially ones that have developed the Legacy Metagame, unlike yourself.
    draw 1: 4/60=1/15
    Draw 2: 4/59
    .
    .
    .
    draw 7: 4/54

    Double the amound after adding. Think of it this way, you have 4 copies in of each in the deck, so AN ESTIMATE THAT IS EASIER TO THINK ABOUT is 7/15

  16. #56

    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    Ok first:

    Dark Rit in first hand: 49.18%
    Duress: Same thing
    Hymn: Same thing

    Duress OR hymn: 98.36%

    Duress AND hymn: 27%

    Dark Rit, Duress AND hymn: 12-13%
    The Correct Numbers
    A 4 of in your opening hand 39%
    A Duress or Hymn 64%
    Duress AND Hymn 14%
    Dark Rit, Duress, AND Hymn 5%

  17. #57
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    Quote Originally Posted by blackguard90 View Post
    The deck is clearly not consistent, I value consistency highly and a deck that can't break the 80% first turn win level isn't consistent. Grim Long is consistent, belcher is NOT.
    Yes, it is. Belcher consistently goes off on turn two at the latest. However, the list we're talking about also runs 3 copies of Empty the Warrens as an alternate win condition, as well as four copies of Burning Wish to find the fourth Warrens. So when we say that the deck "goes off" on turns one and two consistently, it is fact. There is a distinction between going off and winning the game outright, which you have apparently chosen to ignore.

    I'll say this though: at least in the maindeck, Red Death has no outs to 12 1/1 goblins on turn 1. It will kill you dead. Pre-board, if they go first, you will lose.

  18. #58
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    @blackguard90
    Your method for calculating the odds of having at least 1 Duress in an opening hand of 7 cards drawn from a deck of 60 with 4 copies of Duress is correct, but your answer is not. If you followed through on your own calculations, you would find yourself with an answer of 0.39949 which rounds to approximately 39.95%. Furthermore, your calculation for drawing Duress OR Dark Ritual assumes that the events are mutually exclusive, which they are not. It is easy to disprove this mathematically, but even easier to simply use intuition and observe that your results make no logical sense. If the odds of drawing Duress are 40%, and drawing Duress OR Dark Ritual are 80%, then the odds of drawing Duress OR Dark Ritual OR Hymn are 120%! If I were you I would spend less time inducing off-topic flamewars about basic discrete math combinatorics when you cannot do simple arithmetic correctly.

    This thread is now being monitored and any off-topic posts will be removed. If you want to discuss disco or have a meaningless pissing contest about intelligence or schooling, create your own thread in community or mish-mash so I can delete it.

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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    No problem. Just stay on topic.
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  20. #60
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    Re: [DTW] Red Death

    God bless the moderators.

    Well, now let's go back to the thread's theme, shall we?

    Anyway, I'v played some matches against hulk flash and I found Cabal Therapy and Hymn to be very usefull, also, leyline post-board is broken. I've decided to keep leyline SB on the tormods spot. It does very nice not only against hulk flash, but against TES and Iggy Pop as well, so, why not?

    Also, my opinion about hulk flash. Yes, it is a broken combo, but after some tests, I realize that it's not the apocalypse. As the decks emerges, so emerges the hate. Lackey dominated the format for 2 consecutive years, now, his reign is falling and I think that's amazing. Finally, some changes and balance on the format.

    So, I vote for Hulk Flash to remain on the format without banning.

    Bye bye goblins reign.
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