Tournament Results and the Impact of Hulk Flash

[The Cisco Kid]

So I decided to use the resources at hand both here and at the Source to compile tournament results from this past weekend (post-Hulk Flash), and the weekend before it's discovery to the entire Legacy-playing world. If anyone has any additional information they'd like to share, PM me or post it here. Anyway, it's a valuable tool for metagaming, in any case.

4-28/9
Kaddy’s (Top 8, 55 players): Belcher, Survival, Polar Express, UWB Landstill, Goblins, UGR Thresh, UGW Thresh, 43Land.dec

GPT Blue Bell (Top 8, 25 players): GR Belcher, CRET Belcher, B/W Disruption, BHWC Landstill, Boros Deck Wins, Rec-Sur, Goblins, Iggy Pop

GPT Saint Louis (Top 4, 9 players): Boros Deck Wins, BWHC Landstill, Stompy, Trinket Angels

Dragon’s Lair (Top 8, 32 players): Pox, Death and Taxes, UW Fish, Golden Grahams, White Weenie, Angel Stax, Three-Deuce, UG Madness

GPT Louisville (Top 8, 31 players): Golden Grahams, Golden Grahams, Landstill, B/W Disruption, Thresh, Goblins, Sligh, UG Loam

GPT Roanoke (Top 8, 15 players): RG Beats, Affinity, Iggy Pop, UWR Pyroclasm

GPT New York (Top 8, 23 players): UB Tog, UG Madness, Rec-Sur, Belcher, MWC, TES, GRO, Zoo

GPT Columbus (Top 8, 26 players): Goblins, B/W Disruption, Goblins, Rock, Rifter, Counter Sliver, Thresh, Affinity

5 Goblins (8.9%)
4 Belcher (7.1%)
4 Landstill
4 Thresh
3 Golden Grahams (5.4%)
3 Landstill
3 Survival
3 BW Disruption
2 UG Madness (3.6%)
2 Boros Deck Wins
2 Iggy Pop
2 Affinity
Polar Express (1.8%)
43 Land.dec
Stompy
Trinket Angels
Pox
Death and Taxes
Fish
White Weenie
Angel Stax
Three Deuce
Sligh
UG Loam
RG Beats
UWR Pyroclasm
UB Tog
MWC
TES
Gro
Zoo
Rock
Rifter
Counter Sliver

56/216 players

5-5/6
Meandeck Open (Top 8, 29 players): Hulk Flash, UWB Fish, 6 Unknown

Sandusky FoW (Top 3, 9 players): Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Iggy Pop

Austin Mox (Top 8, 16 players): Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, UB Tog, Belcher, Belcher, Unknown, Survival

GPT Rochester (Top 8, 25 people): Aluren, Goblins, Belcher, 43Land.dec, Thresh, Hulk Flash, Sea Stompy, Belcher

GPT Richmond (Top 8, 25 playes): Loam, Belcher, Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Rock-ish, Red Death, Solidarity, UGw Thresh

GPT Pittsburgh (Top 8, 36 players): Hulk Flash, Counter Slivers, Goblins, Thresh, Landstill, Hulk Flash, Fish, Unknown

11 Hulk Flash (31.4%)
5 Belcher (14.3%)
3 Thresh (8.6%)
2 Fish (5.7%)
2 Goblins
Iggy Pop (2.9%)
UB Tog
Aluren
43 Land.dec
Loam
Red Death
Rock
Landstill
Solidarity
Sea Stompy
Counter Slivers
Survival
8 Unknown

35 (Known)/140 players

[Happy Gilmore]

Wow, if those numbers are correct I think its safe to say that our greatest fear has been realized.

I think this thread may need to be moved to the LFM since it is basically a continuation of the discussion regarding GP Columbus. While at the same time addressing the current impact of Hulk Flash using statistical evidence.

Thanks for putting it together TCK.

[Guy I Don't Know]

43land.dec is called HOT COCOA

P.S. it doesnt even have 43 lands

PMs, please---frogboy

[UrDraco]

If you want it.

GPT - Durham NC 4/14/07 13 players

top 8

Angelstompy (2nd)
Iggypop (3rd)
UGr Thresh
Kobolds
B/W Disruption (4th)
UGw Thresh
RGbeats
Unknown (1st)

[Machinus]

If you want it.

GPT - Durham NC 4/14/07 13 players

top 8

Angelstompy (2nd)
Iggypop (3rd)
UGr Thresh
Kobolds
B/W Disruption (4th)
UGw Thresh
RGbeats
Unknown (1st)

What was the unknown?

[JACO]

Wow, if those numbers are correct I think its safe to say that our greatest fear has been realized.

I think this thread may need to be moved to the LFM since it is basically a continuation of the discussion regarding GP Columbus. While at the same time addressing the current impact of Hulk Flash using statistical evidence.

Thanks for putting it together TCK.

This is a nice compilation of results, and a good Flores or BDM style week in review, and you are to be commended, TCH! Those are the only articles on Wizards' site I ever read, because the content is the only thing of value to me of all of their editorials.

However, to quote 9 player tournaments, and say our greatest fears are being realized, is a little unsubstantiated. Only one of the tournaments from this past weekend had more than 4-5 rounds, and any deck can make Top 8 in tournaments that small, especially if people are playing decks like 'Rock,' 43Land.dec, etc., which stand no chance against combo of any nature, let alone Belcher or HulkFlash. Once more people start putting Blue back in their decks I think things will simmer down a little bit. But it's great to see so much Legacy activity in general, and have results compiled in an easy to read format. You might also want to bold the winner of each tournament, and then (like BDM and Flores) you can track how many and the percentage of each archetype WON tournaments, and what percentage MADE TOP 8. Now that would be nice.

[The Cisco Kid]

However, to quote 9 player tournaments, and say our greatest fears are being realized, is a little unsubstantiated.

I agree here completely. Frankly, I didn't want to include such small tournaments, but I figured that given the nature of this study--that is, a two week slice of the meta--that I should use every bit of material I had available.

Also, I would like to state for the record that I didn't really want to make an argument one way or the other about the change. I just thought it relevant to take notice of just how much things changed.

Finally, I'll probably won't go back and bold the winning decks, because I don't think that's necessarily giving a more accurate representation of the meta. To take into consideration only winning decks has so much to do with luck on draws and pairings that I think it would be severely limiting. Also, if I had the relevant information, I'd probably want to do a more thorough analysis of all decks, average placement, etc... because that is most important for players IMO--knowing what decks to expect at the next tourney.

Thanks for the input, though. If any more numbers come up, I'll be sure to edit my post.

[allaanon]

If these results stay about the same post-FS I think it's actually promising. While it got quite a few wins don't forget this was the first weekend and they are not yet hitting all of the hate they will be a month from now. How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

[Zilla]

How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

You are roughly the 4000th person to have made this incredibly flawed analogy. I don't have it in me to refute it again, but if you care to educate yourself you might do some reading on the subject.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

If these results stay about the same post-FS I think it's actually promising. While it got quite a few wins don't forget this was the first weekend and they are not yet hitting all of the hate they will be a month from now. How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

I don't know if you noticed, but this hasn't been kept hush-hush. There was plenty of preparation for Hulk-Flash. You'll notice, for instance, that of the 35 decks we know that Top 8'd this weekend, only four didn't either,

1) Have turn 1 wins.

2) Play heavy back disruption, or

3) Play heavy blue disruption.

Two thirds of the decks were running Force of Will.

The format was prepared this weekend, and most of the lists were sub-optimal and raw. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg here. Most people still don't understand what Hulk-Flash is capable of.