Realistically, based on the decks in play, what's the average clock set at in a Legacy game at the moment?
I see frequent discussion of turn 1, 2 and 3 wins by Flash-Hulk, TES and Iggy Pop. Goblins look like game over one way or the other by turn 5 at the latest.
Are they fully representative of the actual clock in play in Legacy or do they just represent the fastest possible wins?
Based on the write-ups it seems like Goblins is played very often, maybe even the majority deck in the format.
I would go ahead and say that the critical turn in Legacy is probably turn 4. You either need to have won by then, or have a way to keep your opponent from having won at that point.
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Originally Posted by Slay
It depends on what deck you're playing. Goldfishing turn 1, 2, 3, and winning on those turns against another deck is much different. Goblins can goldfish turn 3-4, they usually don't win that quick because they have to deal with StP on their Lackey, so on and so forth. Flash can go off against unprepared decks turn 1. Flash will rarely go off turn 1 against a deck with a Leyline in play, for example. U/B Jack Flash go off turn 3+ usually, at it's leisure. It can go off as early as turn 2 if it has the cards in hand. It can go off turn 3 if it grabs the combo pieces and doesn't need to worry about playing disruption. Against decks packing disruption, it goes off alot later by playing it's own disruption to fight off Duress and Force, Leyline and Needle, etc.
Flash is probably soon to be banned anyway and then the Legacy metagame will shift back (at least a good bit). If not, the metagame clock is going to be alot slower because decks will be aggro/control, control, and Flash with the occassional fast aggro (like Goblins) to trump unprepared aggro/control and control decks.
Remember that the 'clock' has to be established, it isn't there from turn 1 unless you get a draw that has all the clock pieces in it, e.g., lackey into siege gang, piledriver, warchief.
I really hate when people say 'zyx deck has a turn three clock.'
It only has that clock when it has all the pieces and gears turning together in motion.
a minute hand spinning on it's own with no hour hand isn't going to tell you what time it is, you need an hour hand with it.
Also, I seriously would wager that the number of games in tournaments I have played where turn four has come and gone you can't tell who's going to win.
This was probably mumbo-jumbo, but it's late, and 'clock' irritates me. My rambling aside, I would say that it should take you in the realm of four turns to get your win condition in hand or on the table, or make an attempt to cast it..
I think the Critical Turn in Legacy has gone from 4 to 3. Some decks push the envelope even further and move it to 2, but over time I think Three has gotten far more critical than it used to.
Hanni's right, though, it does depend on the deck. And heavily on the opponent's deck, as well.
Important distinctions to draw here:
"Clock" in the abstract like used in this topic means those glowing digits counting down the match time, not really impacting the specific game play. I think you are referring to the 'fundamental turn,' which used to be turn four but is now a blur because of hulk-flash. A clock, as you are using the term, really only applies once the game has begun and your opponent has started to kill you, at which time you need to get into the specifics like your respective decks, play styles, and how you are forced to interact. There is no 'average clock,' because you can never exactly predict in-game interactions, but there used to a a fundamental turn of four.
QFT
Turn 4 Wrath of God doesn't stabilize anything anymore. Those days are gone...
Furthermore, I think imho that legacy deck must have a turn 0/1 disruption package. A big one.
Unmask/Duress/Therapy, FoW/Daze/SpellSnare/Stifle + some way to deal with the lackey's horde are more and more needed from now MD. Making Hanni Fish (quite of~) happy.
Thus, it could turn the game to a first 2 turns warfare then topDeck skills...
This suxx.
W&S what will happen on June 1st.
things in Legacy tend to go faster and faster. When building a deck, we have to make sure to have answer to some archetype (lackey ad other).
Turn 3 and/or 4 are critical, and in my opinion we can say who is going to win in those turn, cause if you're already loosing turn 3 or 4, you'll certainly loose the game.
Moreover, it's also true that deck in Legacy are packing more and more distruption, and that we saw more and more U and/or B base deck.
I guess the question is what the fundamental turn is a hulk flash metagame. We have to define what the fundamental turn is first.
To me the fundamental turn is the turn at which you have to either win or disrupt your opponent so you dont lose. In this context I would say the fundamental turn is 2 because by that time you either have to win or disrupt flash enough to keep them from winning, usually its the later unless you are playing flash. I remember when vintage had trinisphere legal and it made vintages fundamental turn shift from turn 3 to about turn 1 because trinisphere made it so that a combo deck couldnt win past turn 1. Im not sure, what do you all think?
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Let me refocus a little bit and ask a related question:
Assuming you have 12 points of damage on the opponent on turn 4 and have the kill in hand as you pass to his turn, how often will you win that game and lose that game - including the games you already lost earlier?
What I'm trying to figure out is at what point a typical game is hopeless if you have no denial and they're not dead yet. Assume for the purposes of the question that you have all the actors and mana you need in hand and that they'll be dead on turn 5.
The fundamental turn in Legacy in a Hulk Flash metagame is Turn Nintendo Wii, because that's where I'll be instead of playing in Legacy tournaments.
I edited the thread title to more accurately reflect what's being asked here. A "clock" is a highly incidental thing. It's whatever you have on the table in a given game, and how many turns it will take to win with it. The fundamental turn is the turn by which (on average) the game is essentially decided. For a combo deck, this typically means having won the game outright. For an aggro deck, this means having developed a board position that is so overwhelming that it is virtually guaranteed to win. For a control deck, this is the turn in which fundamental control of the gamestate has been established, and an overwhelming board/hand advantage has been established.
With Flash legal and with TES and CRET Belcher developed the way they are, the fundamental turn has moved from turn 4 to turn 3, or perhaps even turn 2.5. No control deck can hope to survive against combo if it takes until turn 4 to establish control. No aggro deck can hope to compete if it hasn't essentially won before turn 4.
Despite the strength of TES and CRET Belcher, the fundamental turn will shift back to turn 4 once Flash is banned. These other combo decks are very good, but they're much more succeptible to hate, which lends more legitimacy to control/aggro-control oriented strategies, which in turn legitimizes aggro strategies. The overall effect is a general slowing of the format, back to something pretty close to what it's been for the last few years.
The question doesn't really have a clean answer in my opinion, especially since many games are decided before someone reaches 0 life/cards in library.
Contract Tendrils, Stax, Belcher and TES have a better than 1-in-3 chance to bag the game turn 1 (the first by winning outright, the others by doing something powerful enough that most opponents won't recover).
None of these decks has a real clock - they either do something hideous or they don't. Moreover, they are fragile, inconsistent or both so they sacrifice a lot for their 'every turn is a fundamental turn' thing.
IGGy Pop is in my opinion a good indicator of the fundamental turn for combo decks - it emphasises reliability over speed, without going overboard with control tools (Golden Grahams and Solidarity fall under the combo/control archetype in my opinion). It kills reliably turn 3, with faster kills being more common than slower ones.
For Aggro decks, I think the best benchmark deck for the fundamental turn is Affinity. It doesn't sacrifice staying power like Sligh/most Zoo variants/Stompy, nor does it emphasise light control tools and long-term card advantage/quality like Goblins... it does, however, excel at translating its goldfish to actual game-play (winning turn 4 through several blockers is not exactly rare). Most competitive aggro decks reliably get turn 3 play that spell 'do something gamebreaking or lose'; it's just not always as clear-cut.
Modern control decks don't really have a fundamental turn. The days of 'craft your hand, sweep the board turn 4 or 5, outclass them' are over and it's hard to truly control the game before turn 4... seizing control has become a very gradual process. The power and reliability of available combo decks pretty much means you have to be able to do something relevant turn 1 or 2.
Despite everything I just said, if I had to answer the original question directly I'd say the fundamental turn is just past turn 3. Many games won't be decided until later, but that's often the time the player going second will need to do something big or lose.
While I agree with some of what you said, however CRET Belcher, TES, IGGY POP and other decks of these natures have never been metagame defining decks; such as Threshold or Goblins. They had influence before Flash came along and warped the metagame, but they never changed peoples decks or made certain decks unviable. I also believe that the fundamental turn was 3 way before Flash came along, I mean think about it. Fact or fiction was considered slow and still is, flash being unbanned doesn't change that and it still costs 4 mana. Reaching 4 mana isn't the issue anymore, it's reaching 4 mana and staying alive until turn 4 now.
I don't believe that the format will slow down too much, combo was on the rise before Flash and will continue being on that rise for awhile in my opinion. TES won The Mana Leak Open and a month or so after that Belcher won Kadilak's, this is strong evidence of combo fighting through the hate and standing firm. Combo simply doesn't lose to Meddling Mage anymore, it has the tools to fight through formerly strong anti-combo cards.
With Flash's banning (assuming this does happen) it will make alot more decks viable, Loam decks, Survival and various aggro decks will be able to compete once again. The deck that will benefit the most will be Goblins returning to the top of Legacy once again. The format as a whole will benefit from a deck like flash being banned, the only decks that won't benefit will be aggrocontrol decks; losing more positive match-ups.
I am of the opinion that the fundamental turn w/Hulk in the metagame is 2.5. That is when they are either set up to go off or have gone off. All the other highly competitive combo decks are ready to rock and roll by turn 2 or 3 except Solidarity which has some protection and is a turn 3 or 4 deck. Flash is special because it has as much or more protection as Solidarity, is as consistent as Solidarity but is at least a full turn faster.
How do you define the fundamental turn? The first turn you can win, or the first turn you are forced to interact with your opponent? The fundamental turn shifts from deck to deck, not from deck to format, unless we are just flipping coins against Force of Will and hate with combo. I think it's a question of how fast I can win and how fast am I forced to interact, but I don't think you can define that turn in a vacuum as easily as you can in a match.
Turn 2 with Flash, turn 3 post-Flash.
The fundamental turn is basically the turn where you can tell if you're going to win or not. The turn where control stems the bleeding, where combo has the kill, or where aggro has inflicted too much damage (doesn't have to be a kill but if goblins has dealt 6-8 damage and drawn 2-3 extra cards against a deck which is not faster than it, it has basically got the game in the bag).
Next question related to the main topic:
When graveyard access has been removed what is the fundamental turn?
I'm wondering if 4 MD Leylines and 8 cheap creature sweepers is as valuable as 8 counters and 4 StP in terms of pushing the fundamental turn back far enough to make non-counter aggro workable?
With Flash out of the picture, Leyline isn't nearly as relevant. It's dead against too many good decks to maindeck, I think. Consider that it's a blank card against Goblins, which is the best deck in the format with Flash out of the picture. Leyline is blank against CRET Belcher, and it's only barely relevant against TES. It does nothing to Fish, except slightly weakening Jotun Grunt. It's essentially useless against Sui variants. It does basically nothing against Solidarity. It does nothing to Faerie Stompy. It's slightly useful against Survival and Landstill, but not so much so that it wins the game.
Basically it's only really strong against Thresh, Iggy Pop, and Loam variants. While these decks are relevant, they don't even comprise 10% of the metagame collectively. In short, Leyline will not effect the format's fundamental turn in any meaningful way. The fundamental turn will be 3-4, regardless of Leyline.
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