New article on the recent results and current positioning of D&T.
I think it's a terrible idea to draw any real conclusions from Julian's data set, for a few reasons:
a. This is actually a very small sample set. It looks like a large one but that's deceiving. DnT had a 100% win percentage vs Infect, which we all know to be an unfavored matchup, but that constituted a total of 3 matches.
b. The most common matchups for DnT players in this sample were Elves and Burn, which are very bad and slightly bad matchups. They didn't win the matchup lottery this time.
c. Magic decks do not play themselves. Most players are not very good and DnT in particular is a deck that will do particularly poorly when played by a casual pilot. I wouldn't be surprised if its net win % looked like this in *every* large tournament. Reid Duke's BUG TNN has an even worse win % in this tournament, but it won the last GP because its pilot was Reid Duke.
That resurgence of Elves + the disappearance of a solid matchup does put DnT in a worse place than it was before, but it's also easy to overreact. Most people out there are probably playing the exact same legacy deck that they were before Miracles was banned, and it's not like anything has changed about DnT's matchups against most of the field.
Yeah, Julian's analysis is awesome and a piece of the puzzle, but like he said in the article, draw conclusions from it at your own peril.
As a D&T-specific example of this, he posted the Google Docs data set, and I ?apparently like looking at spreadsheets?, and D&T went 4-2-0 against the OmniTell variant of Show and Tell, and 3-4-0 against the Sneak and Show variant.
So, D&T is 66.67% against OmniTell and 42.86% against Sneak and Show, and I'm guessing that with an expanded sample size, we could reverse those numbers.
Hi, first time poster here, but have been reading this for about a few weeks now and corresponding with madea through emails after coming from mtg salvation legacy threads while being a quartermaster of a young (skilled) legacy player in prep for vegas.
We've been making him train against a pro player here (very nice that he hangs out in our local town) and testing DnT against a vast array of decks with at least 3 builds (W, Wb, Wbr without chalice) is yielding less than 50% win rate. For the past week we've had a gut feeling that something was not the same as before so I'm watching results on a daily basis. One of the more interesting one was actually obsessing over what defines the DTB's (1 forum level above), and by working out the percentages daily from here the cut off points up to the 20th May 2017 (TCDecks lag by 3 days) is 51 points rounded down out of 1144 which means it looks like:
1. Grixis Pyromancer
2. Blade Control
3. UR Burn
4. Sneak Attack
5. Berserk Stompy (Infect)
6. Ad Nauseam Tendrils (Storm)
7. Elves
8. Lands
9. BUG Control
Looking at events for the past 2 days there aren't a lot of surprises to existing numbers. In one of my correspondence I actually speculated on how the problem is 2 dimensional: we have decks that are large in showing, with differing efficiency, and julian's article together with a previously mentioned one from UK are interesting that they reflect the same methodology yet show the meta shift so quickly for DnT.
Anyway, just a little nugget of information that I'd thought to share: I'm not entirely sure Julian's alone in noticing that DnT's efficiency dropping due to current W builds post miracles. Will less experienced players be able to pilot the magus build well or try something else with greater efficiencies (thus diluting the result?)
Add1: I was wrong: missed Bahra's 5-0 performance on MTGO yesterday (mindbreak trap in sideboard made it "WUBR" which I missed on cursory glance)
Last edited by rostov; 05-23-2017 at 07:35 PM.
I've been arguing for 2 MD prelates for a while now; I just feel that card steals more games than people realize. It's like our version of cabal therapy in that it rewards knowledge of the format and what threats you are trying to beat.
Quick reply at work:
Funny how you guys are so worked up about our latest results to the point that your starting to ‘’doubt’’ your own deck.
As Medea points out somewhere in his own article, DnT has become a budget option for some newer players to enter in Legacy since the recent reprints. Thus, the newly players ‘’dilute’’ the data that has been gathered so far. (At least for my own region I can verify that I have seen an increase in paper DnT decks)
I remember when I started playing Legacy 3 years ago with my friends, 2 of us started with a head start, buying in on Elves/DnT [Me] while the other bought Burn/Belcher/ANT/Merfolk. While practicing, we told our other mates to pick up my DnT deck to learn the format, as the deck strategy is more obvious to a new player then that of ANT / Belcher. (none liked playing burn ^^) Reflecting back on that, I can’t believe how ignorant I was to the fact how many lines of play the DnT deck offers compared to the other decks we had at our disposal. The initial feedback I received from the others that weren’t playing yet is that they found Revoker a very hard card to use, and they also had trouble in deciding the correct turn 2 play.
Now 3 years later, with numerous matches under my belt, some Top 8’s I made at my local shop with varying builds of our deck. [mono-white, green splash, red splash] I I dare to say that DnT is actually a very *very* difficult deck to master.
This is why I think that the newer players dilute our data. Yes you can say that the ‘’pros’’ of us should have still managed to put down the same results as they had before. But you know, Legacy is quite variable, if you want to top 8, you just need a bit of luck with pairings. One tournament you might face something like Burn, Omnitell, Elves, UR delver, Belcher and Oops all Spells whereas the next tournament your paired versus Merfolk, BUG, Maverick, High tide, Goblins and ANT. Rough guess, say you go 1-5 the first tournament and 4-1 the second, does that mean you suddenly got THAT much better as a player? No, you simply got somewhat lucky with your pairings. Maybe our ‘’pros’’ just had the tough luck of facing some early unfavored matchups which pushed them down in the brackets. What im trying to say is to take the first data with a grain of salt, there is to much variance in the game to draw conclusions based on a couple of events, even if they had large player numbers.
The decks were seeing post miracles meta did not drastically change. Most of them got a bit of more room in their SB, so maybe were taking slight collateral damage as people are preparing for Elves. That said, I don’t believe that our matchups suddenly shifted from even to unfavored or whatever. Also, after the BOM where Julian places first, there was a period where people where packing their SB’s with Golgari charm like cards that hit us just as as much. So its not new that were facing with sweepers that just so happen to be effective versus us.
DnT is still a solid deck, it has so many options to adjust compared to some other Legacy decks which have a 55 out of 60 card selection set in stone. [Elves, AnT for example] whereas we have been innovating drastically with all the good stuff we have been receiving [Recruiters, Sanctum prelate, Thalia 2.0, Wingmare, Gideon, Councils judgement, Spirit of the Labyrinth]
I do not believe that our chances to Top 8 has decreased since the post miracle meta. We simply need to take a step back and reflect what we changed the last 18 months orso. Do we still really need those changes, or should we revert back to our classic lists and re-evaluate from there ?
Example: Nearly everybody on this forum seems to be so sold on Recruiter of the guard. I get it what the card does, I get it that he provides a substantial contribution in the WR splash. That said, I don’t get it why people run more then 1 in the mono white lists. When recruiter got spoiled, some of us already discussed extensively how this affected our curve. What I don’t get is why Recruiter got so much love compared to Sanctum prelate, which IMO was the better card we got with the set.
In a mono white list, Recruiter is in my eyes, a fancy card, not something that you need for your list. The task of the Recruiter is to search for your silver bullets [magus] , something which is less needed in a mono white list. (The flickerwisp chain is a nice trick, but that’s not the reason why we run him.) If one of my ‘’Legacy Pupils’’ opts to board Mangara instead of Recruiter then I tell him that’s perfectly fine as I consider both ‘’fancy’’.
Another thing that surprises me is that nobody here has considered the possibility of going Black splash with the new, faster meta. [Adding 3 thoughtseizes, 3 Confidants and 1 Pontiff main.]
Example:
4 mother of runes
4 Thalia Guardian of Thraben
3 Stoneforge mystic
3 Flickerwisp
3 Phyrexian Revoker
3 Dark confidant
2 Mirran Crusader
1 Sanctum prelate
1 Pontiff
4 Vials
4 STP
3 Equipment [standard]
3 Thoughtseize
Landbase 22
Reason why I bring this up is because my pupil actually proposed making a list with main board surgicals, so we tinkered together with the idea of replacing 2 Ports with Ghost Quarters, trying to hit certain lands and then extract them. (Seems legit when facing BUG for example that run on average 4 sea’s 1 trop and 1 bayou as land base, Grixis likewise can be cut off BG) Above list that I typed out is one that I have been testing online, though I can’t provide numbers as a large lot of player on untap.in are sadly. . less experienced Legacy players, lets put it like that.
We haven’t tested the surgicals at our shop, but I see it happen, and most likely will test out a list once people at my shop expect me to wield Deadguy Ale on a somewhat regular basis –which I had good results with lately-.
So, longer post then I expected, Don’t listen to the doomsayers guys. I have heard people saying that DnT is not a T1 deck, nor has it ever been at my shop (small groups of players that come from other towns) I disregard those remarks easily, guessing that their proclamations are based upon a single newb that plays at their shop as I bashed a large lot of them on previous tournaments with ‘’relative ease’’.
Last edited by Emurian; 05-24-2017 at 01:36 AM.
@Emurian
That a well-written post. I dig it. Addressing a couple of the points.
Going down a Recruiter in the monowhite build seems fine to me. I follow your logic there completely. If the popular decks are going to be a bit faster on average (e.g. Elves, Grixis Delver, Storm, Sneak and Show), that's probably a good choice. The monowhite bomb right now is probably Palace Jailer, but not every build is on him anyway.
I don't like Surgical as a maindeck card. There was a time in the RUG Delver dominated era of Magic where some 3 color decks played a 3/3 split of two different dual lands. Extracting one literally took them off a color. I think that plan was reasonable then. In the DRS world we live in now, I'm not sure that plan is going to work out as well. Dual lands are split a little more cleanly across 3 or four colors. Ultimately, I think Magus would just be better as a hoser card on that front.
Conceptually though, there may be some other piece of hate that moves to being maindeckable as a hedge choice. It's sort of the Vintage approach to hatebears: play enough crippling spells, and one of them should wreck your opponent. The ones that don't work hit the bench of the sideboard games. One I had considered in the past was Rest in Peace. Depending on the density of DRS in the format, it might be reasonable to try something a bit out of left field if everyone is muddling around in the graveyard.
People aren't trying discard because of how rough it is on the mana. Mathematically speaking, with the number of black sources most versions of D&T is playing, it's difficult to get both a black source and a discard spell for the first turn of the game (the moment where you really want it). Bob is also a fine card, but I'm a little worried about the pressure it (and other cards like Dismember or Ancient Tomb) put on our life total right now.
Phil,Originally Posted by Medea_
I will be trying out Bahra's list but exchanging the Dismembers for Blessed Alliance (2 MB, 1 SB like you suggest). I wanted to ask you the following questions regarding the SB:
1. What is SoWaP's role in the sideboard in this meta? If the aim here is to beat Stoneblade, then Manriki-Gusari is probably better. I see how it is also very relevant vs Burn and Maverick, but I would like to hear your reasoning for this choice.
2. What do you think of Bahra's choice of including 3x Mindbreak Trap in his sideboard? Does the prevalence of Storm on MTGO influence this? (I have never played this card personally).
3. What manabase modifications do you feel need to be made to include 2x Sudden Demise. I really liked this card when I tried it on two plateaus, single handedly winning me a game vs Elves. I ask this question mainly because I do not have access to copies of Orzhov Pontiff. I have tried him online and he is amazing, but I dont have him for the league, at least in the short term. I wanted to include Demise in the sideboard to serve this purpose. I find Sparkmage to be good but not impactful enough (costs three mana, when he comes down the boardstate might be well beyond his capacity). Blessed Alliance falls short in this case, because a lot of stuff you want to kill does not attack you (DRS, Dorks, etc) but I feel the life cost of dismember is backbreaking in a lot of games.
4. What made you dismiss Tomb so quickly? You had a good run with it in testing. I think that the life cost is manageable, the extra mana is fantastic for fast equips and it enables cards like Demise. Also, using SoWaP in the side allows you to offset the use for fast equips with life (as can Bskull but the equip cost if often not relevant)
Thanks in advance for all your help.
Is this correct? My experience with Recruiter is that he almost always gets a Flickerwisp, because that's always the card that solves the problems you are facing. Then the Flickerwisp trigger either wins the game or gets another Flickerwisp. It's very rare that I am getting anything else. Am I playing this card a lot differently from everyone else?
In my experience I tutor for the Flickerwisp if I am ahead and if I am behind I am looking for cards like Revoker, SfM or Mirran Crusader.
I've found that in monowhite Recruiter is quite slow, but getting a chain of 3/1s or a Prelate or a Stoneforge or a Crusader is worth 2 or so slots to me.
What's the concep behind the three color list? It looks like its going to have really polarized matchups. Is that what people are finding necessary?
The power of recruiter is not to get flickerwisp. I have done that before and it has its uses, in particular in vial games. But more often than not, you're setting yourself up to get two-for-oned when they kill your recruiter in response of the trigger. I find myself using recruiter to find wisp for value less and less, as it's a play you typically can only really afford if your board state is almost a win anyway. The power of recruiter is to get the card you need in a certain situation, at the expense of mana but leaving a chump blocker or threat (if you have equipment out). Flickerwisp is one of the problem solvers (e.g. ensnaring bridge, chalice, jitte, engineered explosives...), but I find myself going just as often for revoker, stoneforge, prelate, crusader, canonist, relic-warder and even thalia. Before the ban of top palace jailer was also a regular target. When you splash, it can get you even more game-breaking cards like pontiff or magus.
One problem is that recruiter and prelate are rather difficult cards to play correctly. Both force you to make an immediate choice, sometimes with only limited information, which is likely to have a large impact, and there are no takebacks. They also require you to really time your spells and use your mana efficiently over the course of multiple turns, as well as having extensive knowledge about the metagame including various rogue strategies.
Regarding the Recruiter Debate, I like Recruiter for being able to tutor anything i need in (almost) any given situation. I play two in my mono W list (went down to two from three).
I tested the redsplash for like 2 weeks, found the mono white list to be better in the end. The Manabase is alot more prone to wastelands, Price of Progress and whatsoever. Also, the Magus seems to be good against Decks, that are already good or even matchups. I rather have a Prelate against Grixis, then laying down a Magus, just to see it still being bolted, my enemy flooding mana in response to it and still casting Decay or whatever. I like Magus in the sideboard in Mono W lists whatsoever, casting it through a cavern or with vial is quite possible. And almost noone expects it, which I think is a really important factor for playing it.
At last, the point discussed above, that new players screw up the Finishes, is really important. DnT is a really hard Deck to master, but rewards good players. Michael Bonde shows that quite elegant in the League Videos, which I can just recommend to watch. I would never recommend it as a start into Legacy, just because it's a cheap alternative to 3-4 colour lists.
@IRS
1. I had Manriki-Gusari in the sb when I walked into the event. Scouting the room, I saw that SoWaP would be better and made the change on the spot. Manriki is probably better in a vacuum at the moment, but I reserve the right to change my mind if the topless Miracles deck continues to perform well.
2. Storm is everywhere on MTGO, based on what people are telling me. I expect his list is intentionally overboarding for Storm accordingly. The way he has his board set up will make it difficult to drop games to Storm, that's for sure. I suspect he'd go a little lighter on the Storm hate for a paper event.
3. If you swap however many Caverns you are running for Plateaus, that will likely get about correct. I wouldn't go so far as running a basic mountain or anything though.
4. Bahra dropped Tomb as well in his most recent list. I thought that the loss of life was improving the early game of the deck while making the end game worse. One of the strengths of D&T was the ability to grind out most games as they went very long, often stabilizing at a somewhat low life total. When you drew Tomb against the decks you didn't want it, it became very difficult to make it to the end game with a high life total. In the splash builds, there was also a little bit of tension with cards like Magus of the Moon (which theoretically wanted to come down on turn 2) or with WW or WB cards.
I tried the Tomb list at my local shop and the life loss felt really bad. I lost to Merfolk 2-0 with almost turning the corner both games. Losing 4-6 from tomb alone cost me the match. I did like using chalice against Elves but it was cast without tomb anyway.
I am currently running 2 Plateau/4 Cavern/6 fetch. I think they have another Plateau at my shop but I would rather just wait to eventually find the Pontiff which is the more permanent solution. Is it viable to run the Demise with this setup? The time I played it there was no issue, but it might have been a fluke. Do you have a recommendation for another card that could play the sweeper role, apart from Pontiff or Demise?
Pontiff and Sudden Demise are certainly your best two options on that front. If your current setup is working, keep going with it until you encounter problems with it or you get the cards to try other builds.
I have been running a 1-of Ancient Tomb for several months, basically since Recruiter came out, with quite a bit of success. It has never felt like a card I wanted more of, but my build plays 4 WW creatures. The life loss with 1ancient tomb has hardly been issue, and I much prefer it to something like Horizon Canopy. I also have been bouncing between 2 Flagstones/2 Caverns/ or 2 extra Plains. Also Serra Avenger still feels strong in a fair amount of MUs, shes just a house when you need a decent clock. I only play in a small 6-10 man every week, but each player changes their deck almost weekly, from Belcher to Hate Crimes (bad UW stoneblade from what I can tell?), Eldrazi Taxes, Lands, Elves!, High Tide, Sneak and Show, etc... (as a side, I just finished foiling the whole deck, all OG foils, got the last of my MM ports! So I'd be sad to see them go, as I have seen a couple of lists droping down to 2...)
(26) Creatures
4xMother of Runes
4xThalia, Guardian of Thraben
4xRevoker
4xSFM
2xSerra Avenger
2xRecruiter of the Guard
1xSanctum Prelate
1xMirran Crusader
4xFlicker Wisp
(8) Spells
4xAether Vial
4xSwords to Plowshares
(3) Equipment
Standard
(23) Land
9xPlains
1xAncient Tomb
4xRishadan Port
4xWasteland
3xKarakas
2xFlagstones/Cavern of Souls
SB:
1xPithing Needle
1xPath to Exile
2xContainment Priest
2xEthersworn Canonist
2xLeonin Relic-Warder
2xRest in Peace
1xHonor of the Pure
1xSanctum Prelate
1xCouncil's Judgement
1xFaerie Macabre
1xSword of War and Peace
Actually, you're 2 for 1ing them in that case. They spent a removal spell and you still have a 3/1 flier. The strength of Recruiter is that it can fill the Beater role or the Lock Piece role. A lot of lists are down to Stoneforge and 2-3 beaters, so being able to get 4-7 power out of one card is pretty remarkable.
I think that the power of recruiter lies in the combination with Vial. For example in combo matchups they must counter a revoker with active vial on 2 because if not they have to deal with an uncounterable silver bullet (Thalia, Canonist, Revoker, etc). This combo is uncounterable if you have Cavern.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Reply With Quote