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Thread: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

  1. #2601
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Yeah, it's worth remembering that a pile with +1 storm because of Burning wish and pile with enough storm and a tendrils at the bottom accomplish the same thing. I've found that there is a pile for most storm counts, even if you have to go with the double doomsday pass-the-turn pile.

    You all have had a good discussion on LDV vs. wish, I just have a few observations, after playing both styles:
    -I use LDV to get a lion's eye diamond or a probe as much as I use it to find a doomsday
    -you can use LDV as a Hail Mary to try and line up brainstorm and two missing combo pieces
    -What I miss about burning wish is not finding doomsday so much as it is finding Massacre or cruel bargain

    Quote Originally Posted by Namida View Post
    I'd like to hear more arguments about how Repeal will be useful outside of Doomsday Piles.
    Repeal can be used to bounce an opponent's threats while you are digging for combo pieces. Pairing Repeal with a lotus petal or LED, you can cantrip with it or use it to add +3 storm. It can also bounce a few odd hate cards, like Thalia or Ethersworn Canonist and it pairs nicely with Cabal Therapy.

  2. #2602

    Empty the Warrens

    As a tangent to the previous discussion of Burning Wish in Doomsday, I was curious about how much of a benefit Burning Wish offers by being able to access Empty the Warrens (EtW), so I performed a calculation of the strength of Empty the Warrens in the stock Doomsday list. This analysis is split into multiple parts; in the first section I will compare the ease and strength of casting Empty the Warrens between TES, ANT, and Doomsday, in the second section I will discuss the strength required from Empty the Warrens to succeed in the current meta, in the third section, I present an analytical calculation of the probability of casting different strength Empty the Warrens on turn 1 and turn 2, and summarize my findings.

    Comparison of Empty the Warrens in Various Storm Decks
    First, the ease and strength of casting Empty the Warrens depends largely on a few factors; the color of the tutor(s), the color of the rituals, and the number of cards that increase storm/mana. Cantrips, discard, and tutors can increase storm count with excess mana.

    TES
    -Red and Black tutors
    -Only deck with Red-producing Ritual
    -Can cast EtW off of 1 Initial Mana Source (IMS), black or red; only black IMS requires LED
    -Can cast naturally drawn EtW off of 1 IMS for 4 mana
    -Fewest dead cards (Ad Nauseam, 8 cantrips, 6 discard and 7 redundant tutors,12-13 land)
    -Can win even after a sweeper with Grapeshot
    -This deck is capable of producing 12+ goblins on turns 1-2 with consistency

    ANT
    -Tutors and rituals are both black
    -Can cast EtW off of 1 IMS with LED
    -Needs 2 IMS to cast naturally drawn EtW (no red rituals and LED does not help, unless using cantrip + LED)
    -Cabal Ritual requires either 2 IMS or a Dark Ritual to be useful
    -More dead cards (2 Engine Spells, 8-10 cantrips, 6 discard and 3-5 redundant tutors, 15 land)
    -This deck has same-color, but non-red tutors and rituals, which allow casting Empty the Warrens off of only 1 IMS with LED, or 2 IMS without LED.

    Doomsday
    -Red tutor and black ritual
    -Requires 2 IMS, even with LED (unless using cantrip + LED to cast Burning Wish)
    -No maindeck EtW
    -Most dead cards (1-2 flex cards, 3 Doomsday, Ideas Unbound, 2-3 redundant tutors, 12 cantrips, 7 discard, 15-17 land)
    -This deck has the hardest time both casting EtW and has the most anemic results

    Matchups
    Using the MTGO meta for percentages:

    Miracles (17%)
    We probably need to put them on a 2-turn clock, so 10 goblins on turn 1 and I would be uncomfortable giving them until turn 4 to find a Terminus

    Delver (15%)
    A medium-sized EtW is likely fine, although Young Pyromancer can provide an answer to a medium-sized, late EtW

    Shardless BUG+Eldrazi (12%)
    We need 10 goblins turn 1 or 12 goblins turn 2, assuming that 1 creature is played per turn

    Combo (ANT, Infect,SnT,Lands,Elves) (18%)
    I am not confident in winning by turn 3-4. Lands can tutor for Tabernacle or Glacial Chasm.

    So we see in most matchups that EtW is viable, we should aim for 10 goblins on turn 1 or 12 on turn 2. Against Delver, this number can probably be lowered a bit.

    Calculation
    BORING DETAILS HERE
    I assume a stock list with:
    4x Burning Wish
    4x LED
    4x Dark Ritual
    4x Brainstorm
    4x Ponder
    15-17x Land
    2-4x Lotus Petal (Land + Lotus Petal = 19)
    21x Other (7 discard, 4 top)

    First, I create a 8-dimensional array of the probabilities of having combinations of 0-7 of the following cards:
    Land, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish, Brainstorm, Ponder, and Other

    Where the probability is calculated using a multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution (see wikipedia).

    Then I find hands that naturally have an Empty the Warrens, specifically checking for:
    -Burning Wish
    -2 Initial Mana Sources (IMS), where 1 must be red
    -6 Total Mana, where 2 must be red

    Then, of the hands that do not have a natural Empty the Warrens, I calculate the probability of finding the missing pieces required to cast Empty the Warrens from IMS through a cantrip.

    Finally if the above two routes don't work, I calculate the probability of being able to leverage two cantrips to cast Empty the Warrens with LED mana.

    Then, from each successful combination of cards, I break up each probability of that specific combination into probabilities for different storm counts by using excess initial mana sources to cast Cantrips (prioritizing artifact mana) and discard/Tops.

    For the calculation for Turn 2, I calculate the probability of casting a cantrip (prioritizing Ponder over Brainstorm if both are available) on turn 1 and adjust the number of cards seen as appropriate. This is obviously more difficult as there are a myriad of potential Turn 1 plays.

    Assumptions
    A few assumptions were made to simplify the calculation; which should result in an overall increase both in the chance of casting Empty the Warrens and storm count
    -Lands are all gold lands that shuffle the deck when played (important for turn 2)
    -Brainstorm and Ponder are effectively treated as taking the best 8 card combination out of 10 cards, with the difference being that Brainstorm is able to cast a Burning Wish initially in hand with LED mana. This will negligibly inflate storm counts, as this approximation works as long as at least one card seen off of the cantrip is unecessary.
    -Gitaxian Probes are effectively invisible; I treat the deck as 56 cards, which makes Brainstorm and Ponder slightly stronger. For casting Burning Wish off of LED mana, I calculate the probability that a Gitaxian Probe was in the initial 10 cards (intial 7 + 3 from cantrip). Again this should negligibly inflate storm counts
    -I omitted the scenario of playing top, paying 1 mana to look, and drawing/casting Burning Wish off of LED mana.
    Results
    Turn Turn 1 Turn 1 Turn 1 Turn 2 Turn 2 Turn 2
    N Petal 4 Petal 3 Petal 2 Petal 4 Petal 3 Petal 2 Pteal
    Total % 7.8% 7.4% 7.1% 21.4% 20.6% 19.3%
    Opening Hand 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 14.9% 13.9% 12.8%
    Cantrip + IMS 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.3%
    2xCantrip + LED 5.3% 5.7% 6.0% 4.3% 4.9% 6.5%
    Storm >4 (Turn 1)
    Storm >5 (Turn 2)
    100% 100% 100% 74% 70% 65%
    Average Storm 7.26 7.20 7.18 6.44 6.27 6.08
    Goblins/Game 1.13 1.06 1.03 2.76 2.58 2.34

    For comparison: using the same algorithm (a huge approximation) for TES shows 21% of hands successfully cast a Turn 1 Empty the Warrens for an average of >15 goblins (this calculation is much more difficult as their entire deck is designed to power out Empty the Warrens, which means many more cards are likely relevant)

    Results
    Results Summary
    -A majority of Turn 1 wins occur from cantrip+probe+LED into Burning Wish, which is likely due to the deck requiring 2 IMS; this makes sense in hindsight but was surprising and I spent a while looking for a bug in my calculation after seeing this
    -The lower average storm for turn 2 arises from casting Burning Wish off of 2 lands, the route producing the lowest storm count
    -Unsurprisingly, the most unsuccessful route is cantripping into casting Burning Wish with IMS as this requires the initial hand and cantrip(s) to find 3 IMS.
    -Lotus Petal has a smaller than expected effect on the chance of casting Empty the Warrens, but does increase the average number of goblins by roughly 10% per petal for a Turn 2 Empty the Warrens
    -I was surprised to find that a majority of Empty the Warrens had sufficient storm, with 65% of the 2-Petal version and 74% of the 4-Petal version having >12 goblins on turn 2
    -A turn 1 Empty the Warrens has a minimum of 10 goblins due to requiring either a Petal, 2 LED/Dark Ritual/Petal or 2 Cantrips + 2 LED on top of Burning Wish + Empty the Warrens

    Comments
    -It is important to remember that a large percent of successful empty the warrens likely are hands that are also able to win via Doomsday, so the key question to gauge the importance of the Empty the Warrens option is - 'how many of these hands can cast a sufficiently large Empty the Warrens but not Doomsday?'
    -Some increased storm counts appear for a lower Petal count due to relying more on cantripping into Burning Wish. I check to see if I can cast Burning Wish from the initial hand before trying to cantrip into Empty the Warrens.
    -Burning Wish for Empty the Warrens provides tangible utility, especially for hands with lots of mana but lacking either Dark Ritual or Cantrips
    -However, I would advise against aggressive mulligans for a turn 1 Empty the Warrens; which is a valid approach in TES
    -These results imply that the bottleneck is usually the amount of IMS available, which suggests that without a Dark Ritual, playing discard on the combo turn is difficult Turns 1-2
    -These numbers are likely inflated a bit compared to normal play (Turn 1 Brainstorm is generally a misplay), where conservative use of cantrips is rewarded by extra draws after casting Doomsday (so a more accurate number for Turn 1 is likely the 'Opening Hand' percentage)
    Last edited by DireNTropy; 07-21-2016 at 03:08 PM.

  3. #2603
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    Re: emidln's tendrils lists

    I'm curious to know, what are people's thoughts on UBr vs 5c Doomsday? Has anyone been having success with 5c or is UBr become like the go-to?

    Sent from my XT1064 using Tapatalk
    MTGO: Homura_Akemi

    Legacy: Spanish Inquisition / R/G Combo Lands / Junk Fit / Oops! All Spells / Doomsday
    Modern: KCI Eggs / Ad Nauseam

  4. #2604
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Five colour Doomsday gives you Chant/Silence effects. These help to make Doomsday a safe kill when facing potential burn spells. Disadvantage is the weaker mana base. Problem: most decks with burn also attack your mana base, making a weak mana base more dangerous.

    The only non-UBR thing we really need, is Abrupt Decay. Without it, beating CounterTop is a nightmare. So UBr mana base with green mana from the board should be fine. I personally play the green mana main deck, because sideboard space is so tight, but that's about it.

    ---

    Side note about Empty: I still run a one-of in my sideboard, just in case. You sometimes draw hands that can power it out on turn one, and going TES mode can be very strong against certain matchups we'd otherwise be struggling against.

  5. #2605
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    Re: emidln's tendrils lists

    Quote Originally Posted by Dominic Pain View Post
    I'm curious to know, what are people's thoughts on UBr vs 5c Doomsday? Has anyone been having success with 5c or is UBr become like the go-to?
    UBr(g) is more common these days and probably way better. I used to play 5c a lot and still managed to succeed in a few local trials for GP Prague few months ago. Orim's Chant gave me wins: in PTT piles; in combination with BW -> Time Spiral; vs Elves/Dredge. Serenity was also huge vs Eldrazi/MUD/12post. I played a 5c version with 3BW, 1ToA main, 0 Maniac/Sphere.

  6. #2606
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    5 color is just as viable. The mana bases between UBr and UBwr are very similar in terms of number of basics, non basics, and fetches. It's nearly as solid however makes fetching slightly more difficult. It's also important to realize that the green splash is usually swapped for red or white so it isn't often that the deck needs all five colors.

    Chant vs discard has been and always will be debated for doomsday (especially since doomsday can afford the splash and has unique ways of answering dual angled hate). In a known metagame you can select accordingly. In an unknown metagame people pick what they prefer. I prefer UBwrg

  7. #2607
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    If you are running Labman as a secondary MD win con that you have to assume your opponent will see, is it worth running the Mentor SB considering they will certainly keep in removal? Especially vs decks that don't have other good interaction?
    Quote Originally Posted by GreenMycon
    It's really unfortunate that even a complete imbecile can learn. I guess you truly can't drive intuition out of anything.

  8. #2608
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    In this situation there is no hate to dodge by having Mentor in your deck, so I don't think you even bring it in. Simply put, if removal is the only real interaction you expect your opponent to present, you get to make them look foolish for having post-sideboard creature removal in against your Storm deck. Even if you do decide for some reason to bring in Mentor, you can ride a few tokens to a win even if they kill the Mentor.

  9. #2609
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    New to this deck, someone recommended it so I sleeved it up. Probably really dumb question, does the lab maniac Win on that turn? How do you set it up? All this discussion seems to be about lethal tendrils.
    Thanks in advanced!

  10. #2610
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Quote Originally Posted by chaosjace View Post
    New to this deck, someone recommended it so I sleeved it up. Probably really dumb question, does the lab maniac Win on that turn? How do you set it up? All this discussion seems to be about lethal tendrils.
    Thanks in advanced!
    It can, easily: assemble a LabMan pile, draw into it with Ideas/Meditate, make mana, cast LabMan, play a draw effect.
    Many people play Chromatic Sphere for the final draw effect, because you can't respond to its card draw by killing LabMan.

  11. #2611
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    The "default" Laboratory Maniac Pile is normally Ideas Unbound, LED, Sensei's Divining Top, Gitaxian Probe, Laboratory Maniac. You need the mana to cast Ideas Unbound and Top, so that's 1UU (plus two life for Probe post-Doomsday). This is a pass-the-turn pile, but if you have a cantrip you can add the cost of that cantrip and this pile can win on the same turn. If Sensei's Divining Top is your cantrip, then your pile becomes Ideas Unbound, LED, Gitaxian Probe, Gitaxian Probe, Laboratory Maniac; you need 1UU and four life to spend post-Doomsday.

    Keep in mind that there are many piles you can make and these are only some basic piles. There are plenty of options to win on the same turn.

  12. #2612
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Thanks guys! I get there are plenty of different piles to make, I just needed a starting point as I have yet to play with doomsday, I like what the de k has to offer though. I am running burning wish right now but am curious about lim duls vault, so I may test those out against my buddies before taking it to a tournament. Combo seems to be running unchecked at my lgs, is this a good contender against other combo?

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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Quote Originally Posted by chaosjace View Post
    Combo seems to be running unchecked at my lgs, is this a good contender against other combo?
    It's double-sided. Against other storm, you are usually slower, but grindy games with lots of discard spells favor Doomsday because of Top. Against Show and Tell it's also tough, because you have to decide whether to use discard to get their counters or to disrupt their combo.

    Push come to shove, Doomsday is hard to play and your chances depend much more on your play skill than on the actual list you play or what you play against. You can beat almost anything, because Doomsday is very resilient, but you have many difficult decisions. My best advice is to just play. Play as much as you can. What also helps is to watch YouTube videos of other players piloting the deck and to read a lot about it.

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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Quote Originally Posted by chaosjace View Post
    I am running burning wish right now but am curious about lim duls vault, so I may test those out against my buddies before taking it to a tournament.
    There are two reasons I don't play Lim-Dul's Vault:

    1) Imagine that your hand is a ton of mana, no cantrips. On your turn, you topdeck Lim-Dul's Vault. Winning from here will take three turns because both Lim-Dul's Vault and Doomsday are card disadvantage. You basically stack your deck twice before you get to win, and that's a lot of time for opposing Legacy decks to do any number of bad things for you.

    2) Burning Wish in your deck gives you +1 Storm for many of your Tendrils piles. This is often the reason you're capable of winning on Turns 1 and 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by chaosjace View Post
    Combo seems to be running unchecked at my lgs, is this a good contender against other combo?
    "A contender" is a good way of putting it. You're not an anti-combo deck so you won't be crushing combo matchups unopposed, but you're not at a huge disadvantage or anything either. Normally my plan against combo matchups is to use all of my resources to find discard to stop the opposing combo, and once you're both out of cards, Doomsday or Burning Wish are great topdecks because Doomsday is basically a one card combo once you've got the mana to execute a pass-the-turn pile. I have had mixed success here because even after stripping your opponent bare, Doomsday not winning in the same turn gives your opponent a chance to topdeck you and I have been embarrassed by Brainstorm a few times; Show and Tell has been favorable for me, but Storm has been abysmal since Past in Flames is a messed up card and a better topdeck than Doomsday if the game has gone moderately long.

    I agree with what Asthereal is saying. Experience is the most important factor in your wins here. Doomsday + Burning Wish give you quick access to a lot of your 75, and if you are unfamiliar with how you can combine your cards to get out of tough spots, you can't properly leverage the tools in your toolbox. You gain and lose edges by adding/removing cards from your toolbox, but many players get caught up trying to fix problems they think the deck has without realizing that the solution is to just understand the deck better.

  15. #2615
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    It's been a while since I played this (or any) deck. How has the SDT ban affected DDFT? Is the deck still viable? What are people bringing in instead?

  16. #2616

    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Quote Originally Posted by Silent Requiem View Post
    It's been a while since I played this (or any) deck. How has the SDT ban affected DDFT? Is the deck still viable? What are people bringing in instead?
    The ban of Sensei's Top is a huge hit to the DDFT deck. Sensei's Top was doing so much work, it's almost impossible to fix the list wth a simple remplacement. There are two directions that people are talking about. The first is about piles with Three Wishes to play around the free draw Top was providing (which works fine). The deck still struggle to reach 10 or more storm, but it's more a Doomsday concern than Sensei's Top ban.
    The second option is to go to the "Meandeck" way (Maniac and Shelldock kill). Avoiding the storm part of the deck is cool, and the two kills method are both strong, but you are more often exposed to a pass the turn pile (or sometime double pass the turn pile), which is not that cool.

    I think the real DDFT issue with Sensei's Top ban is the tutor package. Top was really good at finding things with all the fetchs played. Looking at 3 fresh cards almost every turn allow to dig deep into the deck and inevitability finding Doomsday (or a tutor).

    Right now I'm looking at the tutor package to see how it goes and if it's still viable, because 3 Doomsday, 3-4 Burning Wish and 4 Sensei's Top was a very very strong package. Actual options are Lim-Dûl's Vault and Grim Tutor (any other ?) but I fear that even 4 Lim-Dûl's backed up by 2 Grim are not even close to the Sensei's Top raw power level.
    IT IS TWO AND A HALF MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT

  17. #2617

    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Quote Originally Posted by Silent Requiem View Post
    It's been a while since I played this (or any) deck. How has the SDT ban affected DDFT? Is the deck still viable? What are people bringing in instead?
    Some on stormboards are trying more cantrips maindeck with three wishes as the draw spell. Losing top was pretty brutal, I don't play the deck anymore. If you're curious about what some people have been trying I'd suggest checking out stormboards, but in my opinion losing top was too much.

  18. #2618
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    RIP Doomsday.

    I'm not convinced that any replacement can be made for top.

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  20. #2620
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    Re: [Deck] Fetchland Tendrils

    Interesting. Love the innovation. No lotus petals, and Lake of the dead.

    Gotta love the Japanese for trying! 2 empty the Warrens with such few ramp spells seems tricky.
    -rob

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