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Thread: Oops, All Spells! (Formerly The Rogue Hermit)

  1. #1041

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    4 Agadeem (the black spell/land)
    4 Petal
    4 Mox
    4 D Ritual
    4 C Ritual
    4 Summoner's Pact
    4 ESG
    4 SSG
    4 Tangle
    1 Wild Cantor

    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Cabal Therapy

    1 Oracle
    1 DR
    4 Narco
    1 Bridge
    8 Spy

    This is my starting point.
    I think going too deep into the lands aspect is really bad and you just lose too much speed with the one that comes into play tapped.

    I'll just take the straight upgrade to the black IMS and consistency which was an huge bottleneck for the deck.

    Therapy is actually a real protection spell if you can go Land --> Therapy.

    The worst cards now are probably Tangle and SSG.

    Running 4 Wild Cantor maybe makes sense now that you can bank the mana without wasting an IMS (or needing the Mox + pitch), pretty good Cabal Therapy recursion target.

    Running the green Spell/Land in the 75 makes a lot of sense too, since you can pitch it to Force of Vigor or just land --> Natures Claim.

    Maybe playing 8 maindeck lands makes sense too, but the risk of losing speed because you are stucked with 2 of them in hand is real so im not sure about it yet.

  2. #1042

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    4 Agadeem (the black spell/land)

    I'll just take the straight upgrade to the black IMS and consistency which was an huge bottleneck for the deck.

    Therapy is actually a real protection spell if you can go Land --> Therapy.

    The worst cards now are probably Tangle and SSG.

    Running 4 Wild Cantor maybe makes sense now that you can bank the mana without wasting an IMS (or needing the Mox + pitch), pretty good Cabal Therapy recursion target.

    Running the green Spell/Land in the 75 makes a lot of sense too, since you can pitch it to Force of Vigor or just land --> Natures Claim.

    Maybe playing 8 maindeck lands makes sense too, but the risk of losing speed because you are stucked with 2 of them in hand is real so im not sure about it yet.
    What was cut for agadeem? You were considering adding unmask on twitter, any reasons why not?

  3. #1043
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    This is my starting point.
    I think going too deep into the lands aspect is really bad and you just lose too much speed with the one that comes into play tapped.
    Agreed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    Therapy is actually a real protection spell if you can go Land --> Therapy.
    How about Unmask? A full quad might be suboptimal, but it's free and it Thoughtseizes. Agreed that Therapy is awesome, though, especially if we're looking at a pretty homogenous control suite of Force, Force, Flusterstorm, SExtraction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    The worst cards now are probably Tangle and SSG.
    Hard yes on Chancellor of the Tangle. The Chancellors are great when everything's going great and useless pretty much all the rest of the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    Running 4 Wild Cantor maybe makes sense now that you can bank the mana without wasting an IMS (or needing the Mox + pitch), pretty good Cabal Therapy recursion target.
    Definitely. Banking mana is one of the best tools to get around Daze and pals.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    Running the green Spell/Land in the 75 makes a lot of sense too, since you can pitch it to Force of Vigor or just land --> Natures Claim.
    I've been debating green and blue spell-lands. I still think we can fit Force of Will into this beast.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    Maybe playing 8 maindeck lands makes sense too, but the risk of losing speed because you are stucked with 2 of them in hand is real so im not sure about it yet.
    I've been wondering whether we couldn't just make this deck a (much) faster Doomsday control list. They're throwing a minimum of three slots for otherwise unplayable cards, so I think the parallels are real, and it's not like we're somehow weak to Wasteland all of a sudden.

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  4. #1044
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Again - complete newbie with this deck and so take what I say with the largest spoon of salt you can find: I proxied and goldfished my 18 spell-land list and it was not bad. You are able to consistently put down a tap spell-land turn 1 and an untapped one turn 2. This lets you use a discard spell that turn and set up a turn 3 with two accel or DR and fow/Unmask protection. That's turn 3 with 2 protection spells (and still have a chance to go off turn 2 with or without one protection spell fairly frequently as well (I haven't worked out the percentages, will try to do so this week when I have more time). I know that is much slower than what you're running, but turn 2-3 with 1-2 protections is by itself decent.
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  5. #1045
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    It was taking me way too long to find a spoiler for this card on this website, so I just linked it:
    https://www.magicspoiler.com/mtg-spo...ems-awakening/



    The front side is very unlikely to have any playable mode, so it's really just a bad Mox Jet ("nonland", taps for B), but that's still better than all the G initial mana sources since you need black to go off.

    The ETB tapped lands seem bad.

    This card makes Unmask better (black spell to pitch), so it seems bad to cut Unmask. You need disruption. What about cutting Chancellor? Chancellor seems worse than every other source, unless you're playing against EurekaTell.
    Last edited by FTW; 09-09-2020 at 02:24 PM.

  6. #1046
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    It's worth testing, but I doubt that will help the deck. This deck's only asset is its speed, so slowing down to Turn 3 or Turn 4 needs to deliver massive flexibility benefits to be worth it. I think the focus should be on postboard plans. A slow graveyard strategy isn't going to be able to beat graveyard hate, so I think a transformational sideboard would be necessary, which is difficult with the number of must-play cards in the main.
    Having seen this new spell/land today that comes in untapped, I revise my previous response to MaximumC. Coming in untapped makes all the difference in the world. The card is basically Zombie Spirit Guide, which is exactly what this deck wanted.

  7. #1047

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/3377936#paper

    I liked when i added 4 Hope of Ghirapur, hard protection and may be searched with once upon a time.

  8. #1048
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Hope seems strong now with lands.

    I'm looking at this list, which is close to yours. I cut Cabal Ritual (+1 ritual, doesn't fix for black if you don't have black) because it seems worse than a regular +1 source of any color. Also, now with lands you can cast Undercity on only 3 mana and activate with the land next turn. That all makes Cabal Ritual seem worse and worse.

    Chancellor, Pact and Cabal Ritual seem like the worst mana sources and first on the chopping block for other cards.



    //Oops, Some Lands: 8
    4 Agadeem's Awakening
    4 Turntimber Symbiosis

    //Mana: 26
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Summoner's Pact
    4 Dark Ritual
    2 Wild Cantor

    //Hermits: 8
    4 Undercity Informer
    4 Balustrade Spy

    //Combo: 7
    4 Narcomoeba
    1 Bridge from Below
    1 Dread Return
    1 Thassa's Oracle

    //Protection: 11
    4 Cabal Therapy
    4 Unmask
    3 Pact of Negation

    //Rough Sideboard: 15
    4 Force of Vigor
    3 Hope of Ghirapur
    2 Nature's Claim
    2 Pithing Needle
    2 Surgical Extraction
    1 Silent Gravestone
    1 Pact of Negation


    IMS: 20
    MD black count: 26 (for Unmask and Mox)
    MD green count: 14 / 20 postboard (for FoV SB)


    Edited list:
    -2 Hagra Mauling
    +2 Cantor
    -4 OUAT
    +4 Pact

    Consideration: Worldly Tutor
    Last edited by FTW; 09-20-2020 at 08:14 AM.

  9. #1049
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Aijalom View Post
    https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/3377936#paper

    I liked when i added 4 Hope of Ghirapur, hard protection and may be searched with once upon a time.
    Interesting list. One thing I noticed right away in testing is that the new mulligan rule vastly helps this deck, in that you can put back Narcomoebas or Dread Return when you mulligan. I think this deck could actually be a player in the format, although the gameplay is still going to be so all-in that I don't think it would ever actually take over. That said, I expect it to see a lot of play online.

  10. #1050

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Hope seems strong now with lands.

    I'm looking at this list, which is close to yours. I cut Cabal Ritual (+1 ritual, doesn't fix for black if you don't have black) because it seems worse than a regular +1 source of any color. Also, now with lands you can cast Undercity on only 3 mana and activate with the land next turn. That all makes Cabal Ritual seem worse and worse.

    I also cut Chancellor and Summoner's Pact because they're just riskier IMS and seem unnecessary now.



    //Oops, Some Lands: 10
    4 Agadeem's Awakening
    4 Turntimber Symbiosis
    2 Hagra Mauling

    //Mana: 20
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Dark Ritual

    //Hermits: 8
    4 Undercity Informer
    4 Balustrade Spy

    //Combo: 7
    4 Narcomoeba
    1 Bridge from Below
    1 Dread Return
    1 Thassa's Oracle

    //Support: 15
    4 Once Upon A Time
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Cabal Therapy
    3 Unmask


    With 14 black IMS, 6 of them lands, there should be no need for the Summoner's Pact -> Wild Cantor filtering trick.
    If you are using 4x Once Upon a Time, once your opened hand has 1/8 hermit + OUT, your OUT reach another funtction: extra mana or defense. If you use Blackbloom Rogue you may got it with OUT, if you use Hope of Ghirapur too. Because of that OUT may reach 16 useful cards from top: 8 guides +8 above (secondary OUT function). I recommend you check my list. About guides vs cabal ritual, if you dont check OUT, cabal Ritual is higher,guides are useless without black mana too and CR may be imprinted. How about 16 non hermit top? Sorry my low english.

  11. #1051

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by ESG View Post
    Interesting list. One thing I noticed right away in testing is that the new mulligan rule vastly helps this deck, in that you can put back Narcomoebas or Dread Return when you mulligan. I think this deck could actually be a player in the format, although the gameplay is still going to be so all-in that I don't think it would ever actually take over. That said, I expect it to see a lot of play online.
    I dont mulligan with 1 narcomoeba, because it fails only if you have undercity informer + 2 narcomoebas, is low chance to fail. Remembering 1/12 protections from hand. With B spy your C T grave defense works too.

    The hand with one Dread or Oracle is an keep if we have Balustrade Spy. 4 narcomoebas + balustrade spy + 2 cabal T from graveyard.

    Because of that, i will add +1Bridge -1cabal. 11 protections has 77,7% and 12 protections 80,9% Opening hand.
    Ty.

  12. #1052
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Aijalom View Post
    The hand with one Dread or Oracle is an keep if we have Balustrade Spy. 4 narcomoebas + balustrade spy + 2 cabal T from graveyard.
    With 1x Bridge from Below, it doesn't matter what's stuck in hand and you don't even need Spy. 4x Narco + 4x Therapy will fix it.


    Quote Originally Posted by Aijalom View Post
    If you are using 4x Once Upon a Time, once your opened hand has 1/8 hermit + OUT, your OUT reach another funtction: extra mana or defense.
    Yes, I have OUAT also to get Spirit Guides or Hopes (in my SB). It also pitches to SB Force of Vigor. OUAT can do a lot for this deck.

    I am not sure about Blackbloom Rogue yet.
    Pros: OUAT gets it
    Cons: ETB tapped. Front side doesn't do anything useful.

    Hagra Mauling also ETB tapped but has a front side of Murder, which could kill hatebears if you're really in trouble. Rogue is only better if you need to OUAT into a black source. But would you keep a hand with OUAT + Hermit but no black, hoping to OUAT into a tapped black source? Seems better to mulligan.


    Quote Originally Posted by Aijalom View Post
    About guides vs cabal ritual, if you dont check OUT, cabal Ritual is higher,guides are useless without black mana too and CR may be imprinted.
    Cabal Ritual is also useless without black mana. In both cases, you need other black mana. Spirit Guides can be found by OUAT, can't be countered, and are easier to use.

    Spirit Guides can't be imprinted for black, but with 25+ black cards (thanks to the new lands and Unmask) Mox has enough to imprint without CR. The older builds had a much lower black count, making CR useful to imprint. I think the deck can now outgrow CR.

  13. #1053

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    The ETB lands are trash imo. You can't afford to keep an hand with them on the draw.

    So far im goldfishing with 8 lands and only 4 Cabal Therapy as protection.

    I think that before trying to fix my Force of Will matchup, I want to be as fast and consistent as possible, reducing mulligan % and losing to myself.

    We ALREADY have slighty more protection since Therapy has never been a 4x and the line Land ---> Therapy is very real now.
    I also have the suspect that with 8 lands you can be much more resilient to Control in game one by just brute force a Spy (OUAT helps at digging for them).

    Then post board when Surgical and GY hate is a factor, you can bring in stuff like Pact of Negation, Hope, Unmask etc...

    Veil is trash because it doesn't protect from Surgical.

    I think the key points here are:

    1. Green land, yes/no? Does it get stucked in hand too much or it's just a straight upgrade to stuff like Chancellor of the Tangle? (So far I think the answer is yes)

    2. Summoner's Pact, yes/no? With 4 extra uncounterable black mana sources, do we still need that bad card? Do we really need 8 ESG?
    Before saying no keep in mind that Pact is still +1 mana in the opener and it also has the double role of filtering to black with Cantor.

    3. How many Cantors, if any? The land Cantor line is pretty sweet but a lot of stuff can punish it, being able to filter SSG/ESG into black is also very good. I also like the fact that you can sac it to Therapy for extra protection.

    4. OUAT, yes/no? I think the card is really good but adds a lot of variance. You "only" have a 57,5% of finding a Spy in the opener with it, so keeping those hands is risky. The 2nd one is also a really bad topdeck, it gets slighty better now that we can make land drops, but it's clearly not the kind of game we want to play.

  14. #1054
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    The ETB lands are trash imo. You can't afford to keep an hand with them on the draw.
    Fair point. ETB tapped is also embarassing vs Wasteland.

    I started with only 2 to test, to have additional black IMS. Can the deck run consistently on only 12 black IMS? Is an ETB land worse than being forced to use a "Lose the game" card to filter into black mana? Maybe you can just play 1-2 Wild Cantor without the Pact.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    I think that before trying to fix my Force of Will matchup, I want to be as fast and consistent as possible, reducing mulligan % and losing to myself.
    Just playing better mana sources should already improve consistency. Chancellor of the Tangle & Cabal Ritual have too many conditions to use vs Forest and Swamp.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    1. Green land, yes/no? Does it get stucked in hand too much or it's just a straight upgrade to stuff like Chancellor of the Tangle? (So far I think the answer is yes)
    With only 8 lands, all possible to imprint on Mox or pitch to Unmask/FoV, getting stuck in hand shouldn't happen often. Needs testing though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    3. How many Cantors, if any? The land Cantor line is pretty sweet but a lot of stuff can punish it, being able to filter SSG/ESG into black is also very good. I also like the fact that you can sac it to Therapy for extra protection.
    2 Cantor might be worth running even without Pact. Too bad it can't be cast from the black land.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    4. OUAT, yes/no? I think the card is really good but adds a lot of variance. You "only" have a 57,5% of finding a Spy in the opener with it, so keeping those hands is risky. The 2nd one is also a really bad topdeck, it gets slighty better now that we can make land drops, but it's clearly not the kind of game we want to play.
    What would you play instead? If it was protection or mana, that still doesn't increase odds of finding a Hermit. OUAT also has a 57.5% chance of finding a Spirit Guide, if you need +1 mana.

    I think if you have a 7 with OUAT but no Hermit, it's correct to mulligan, but OUAT could stop you from mulling to oblivion if you don't find one lower. The rest of the time it digs for mana or protection or imprints/pitches for a valuable color.


    Edit: Math
    57.4% to find a Hermit (53 cards left, dig 5 deep, 8 possible hits)
    66.5% to find a mana source with 8 spirit guide + 2 Cantor (10 hits)

    The deck is already 65.4% to have at least one Hermit in the opening 7.
    Of the 34.6% of hands with no Hermit, 45.0% will have OUAT. That OUAT has 57.4% chance to find one.
    Overall, that boosts your chance to find a Hermit to 74.3%, without mulliganing.

    But what if you mulligan instead? With London mulligan, you're still 65.4% to find a Hermit on the 2nd hand, which is better odds than casting the OUAT.
    If the 2nd hand doesn't find a Hermit but finds an OUAT, that OUAT still has only 57.4% chance to hit a hermit vs 65.4% if you mulligan again.
    The same odds apply to the 3rd and 4th hand.

    At each stage, mulliganning gives better odds than casting the OUAT. Gambling on OUAT is only worth it when you're down to few cards and wouldn't have enough mana sources if you go lower. That's only relevant when you're already down to 5 cards (failed to find Hermit in the first 3 hands). There's only about a 4% chance of that happening, and less than half the time will that last hand even have a OUAT.

    In other words, OUAT finding Hermits is only relevant in the ~2% of games when you have to mull to 5 or lower and hit a OUAT but no Hermit, and it will still fail almost half the time. The math is against ever using OUAT to find Hermits. It still finds mana or protection, but it could just be mana or protection instead.

    Summary
    OUAT for Hermit is almost always worse than mulliganing for one. Using it to avoid mulling to oblivion is relevant in less than 2% of games, and whiffs 43% of the time.

    OUAT is only 57-75% to hit mana, when it could just be mana or protection instead 100% of the time
    Last edited by FTW; 09-10-2020 at 12:30 PM.

  15. #1055

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Chance of 2 lands & no chrome mox
    Lands Chance of 2+ lands Chance of 1+ chrome mox in remaining 5 Dead land chance
    4 6.32% 24.68% 4.76%
    5 9.92% 24.68% 7.48%
    6 14.02% 24.68% 10.56%
    7 18.48% 24.68% 13.92%
    8 23.19% 24.68% 17.47%

    Ran the hypergeometric numbers for you jax. I don't know how to format tables though. As I said on twitter, 6 lands is probably an acceptable fail rate of 10%.
    Fail rate = (chance of drawing 2 lands)*(1-chance of 1+ chrome mox).

  16. #1056

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    With only 8 lands, all possible to imprint on Mox or pitch to Unmask/FoV, getting stuck in hand shouldn't happen often. Needs testing though.
    If you assume 8 things to imprint to instead of 4, math is as follows:

    Chance of 2 lands & no chrome mox
    Lands Chance of 2+ lands Chance of 1+ pitch thing in remaining 5 Dead land chance
    4 6.32% 44.48% 3.51%
    5 9.92% 44.48% 5.51%
    6 14.02% 44.48% 7.78%
    7 18.48% 44.48% 10.26%
    8 23.19% 44.48% 12.87%

  17. #1057

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Serum's Powder Recalculated.

    I'm trying do this. With +3 cabal therapy...
    The 1/7 card from combo isn't an must mulligan.

    8 rogues + 4 SP is an 80% open hand. Next, SP give 70% chance to free Mulligan 1/8 rogue.

    The 7 possible problematic cards are 1 oracle, 1 dread return , 4 narcomoebas, 1 bridge from bellow.

    The true problematic is only oracle or dread return on first SP hand. Ignores math 2x narcomoebas. (60-2-7-1)

    The next problematic situation is exile one narcomoeba at first SP hand, coming 2nd on next draw AND THE ROGUE ISNT BALUSTRADE SPY.( 60-4-14-2)

    You dont have problem if your second hand is an oracle or DR, because of self CT.

    +8 hermit +4 Serum Powder is an 80% turns 1/2 All in Deck Tech with modal black mana curve fixed. How about SP over OUAT?

    -4 blackbloom rogue -4 OUT +4 SP +4 whattever mana sources, i like +3 sum pact +1cantor
    Sorry my low english.

  18. #1058
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    I might just be behind the times, but if we're not going to use Once Upon a Time, what's our best option for reducing Rogue-less hands? Serum Powder's got issues, and all the tutors are pretty slow.

    I still think, awesome though Agadeem assuredly is, that won't be enough to make the deck compete if we still have trouble finding our Rogues. I've been considering fitting a Worldly Tutor in if we can run some green bolt-lands.
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  19. #1059
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    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Deuce View Post
    I might just be behind the times, but if we're not going to use Once Upon a Time, what's our best option for reducing Rogue-less hands? Serum Powder's got issues, and all the tutors are pretty slow.
    It's a tough question.

    London Mulligan makes both Serum Powder and OUAT lose power compared to just mulliganning.

    The problem with OUAT is at every decision point your odds to find a Rogue are higher by mulliganning than actually using the OUAT. Rogue-less hands might not even have OUAT, and even when they do it's mathematically better to not use it. So then the only purpose of OUAT is to protect the rest of your hand if the other 6 cards are really good and you think the overall quality of your hand would go down with a mulligan. Then, even if you do use it for that, you're at ~40% to scoop on turn 0.

    I was thinking about Worldly Tutor too. Might be worth it with 4x Forest. It can also find Wild Cantor to filter mana (good play on Forest hands), or turn into a 1/1 flying if opponent targets you with mill for some reason.

  20. #1060

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    It's a tough question.

    London Mulligan makes both Serum Powder and OUAT lose power compared to just mulliganning.

    The problem with OUAT is at every decision point your odds to find a Rogue are higher by mulliganning than actually using the OUAT. Rogue-less hands might not even have OUAT, and even when they do it's mathematically better to not use it. So then the only purpose of OUAT is to protect the rest of your hand if the other 6 cards are really good and you think the overall quality of your hand would go down with a mulligan. Then, even if you do use it for that, you're at ~40% to scoop on turn 0.

    I was thinking about Worldly Tutor too. Might be worth it with 4x Forest.
    An first hand Sp+ Hermits have 80% chance. If first hand is an SP without oracle or Dread return, your next mulligan hand is an 70% 8 hermit chance...i dont think mulligan switch SP, but SP reinforce mulligan, not?

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