One of the better decks in the format at the moment. I don't know what the rules for linking are, but check out BlippyTheSlug's Modern Meta thread on mtgsalvation. He has meticulous stats from MTGO daily and PE events with live updating graphs. At the moment White Weenie has more places than delver, but fewer 4-0's. It would be amazing if someone could do this for legacy, but MTGO isn't a hotbed of legacy activity and real life tourneys are a lot more difficult to track.Originally Posted by Phoenix Ignition
As to the actual topic, I can see legacy sticking around as a major format as long as SCG and to a lesser extent TCGplayer decide that it's worth their while to keep supporting the format. After that I expect that it will slowly peter out in America due to the distances involved. I've already seen modern drawing 5-6x as many people compared to legacy locally... It makes me sad because legacy is my favorite format, regardless of my opinion on how Omniscience is the most brain-dead deck since belcher. That said, I don't see SCG or TCG ditching Legacy because it's a format that's more akin to GameStop's used games scheme as far as profits are concerned.
If "lifegain aggro" is the same deck that I'm thinking of (I've seen it called Martyr White and Soul Sisters...personally I prefer the latter because it's a cooler name), then this is it. The linked decklist is what put it on the map with a 2nd place Grand Prix win, before which it was fairly unknown. The basic premise is to use cards like Soul Warden, Soul's Attendant, and Martyr of Sands to gain life (the first two are very benefited by cards like Squadron Hawk or Spectral Procession), then abuse that lifegain with Serra Ascendant and Ajani's Pridemate for massive damage. Or put more succinctly, it's White Weenie with a lot of lifegain. It's actually a pretty cool deck, especially considering how cheap it is to build.
Yea most people call it soul sisters, or martyr proc, depending on if it uses proclamation of rebirth (which has gone out of style). For the purpose of reporting, Blippy calls it life gain agro. So I'm guessing that's where the first guy to mention it got the terminology from.
I scorned Modern when it first came out because of all the obnoxious bannings. I didn't like the bannings since I saw a lot of my favorite cards being banned. However, a glance at the format shows that it has a relatively healthy diversity of decks (other than no true control deck, sadly):
The Decks:
http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/for...?format=Modern
October:
http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/met...?format=Modern
September:
http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/met...n&fecha=2012-9
August:
http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/met...n&fecha=2012-8
Recurring decks:
Affinity: Your fast aggro deck that is inconsistent and can peter out.
Jund: The premier non-blue aggro-control deck. Very powerful, lots of card advantage. Bob and Goyf see lots of play here.
Delver Blade: The blue aggro-control deck. Doesn't have FoW or cantrips (other than Serum Visions), but still has lots of tempo elements (Remand), control elements (Mana Leak) and good beats. Delver, Megaman, Restoration Angel and Geist of Saint Traft see play.
RUG: The other blue aggro-control deck. Clique, Goyf and Megaman see lots of play here.
Eldrazi Green (AKA, Tron): The "combo" deck of the format. Lots of search and mana accel for a giant monster.
Twin Exarch (AKA, UR Combo): The other combo deck. Abuses the Splinter Twin and Pestermite/ Deceiver Exarch interaction.
Project Melira: A mid-range deck that use Birthing Pod. Reminds me of Rock decks.
There are actually quite a few decks. Maybe not as many as Legacy, but it's a new format and it has a smaller card pool. Regardless, I like what I see. Anyways...
Top 3 reasons why Legacy will fail in the long term
Reason number 1: Accessibility.
http://sales.starcitygames.com/cardd...?product=13046
http://sales.starcitygames.com/cardd...?product=13119
The price of 4 duals: $400-$600, with NO REPRINTS to drive the price down.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//spoi...rmatch=EXACT&s[5243]=5243&format=&c_all=All&multicolor=&colormatch=OR&ccl=0&ccu=99&t[T14]=Land&z[]=&critter[]=&crittermatch=OR&pwrop=%3D&pwr=&pwrcc=&tghop=%3D&tgh=-&tghcc=-&mincost=0.00&maxcost=9999.99&minavail=0&maxavail=9999&r[R2]=R&g_all=All&foil=nofoil&for=no&sort1=4&sort2=1&sort3=10&sort4=0&display=1&numpage=25&showart=1&action=Show+Results
The price of 4 shocklands: $64 - $80. Shocklands have already been reprinted.
Other than a select few cards like Tarmogoyf, Thoughtseize, and Dark Confidant, most every card in Modern cost $20 or less. In Legacy, expect to be spending the same amount you would on a computer. http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/dec...0&iddeck=67177
Look at this deck:http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/dec...0&iddeck=67177
The most expensive card is the giant tentacle monster. Everything else is dirt cheap... for a deck that has been doing pretty well the last couple months. Oh, and it got 1st in a 173 person tournament.
Reason 1a: Since duals are limited, this limits the number of people that can have them, which in turn limits the decks you can play. In Modern, you shouldn't have too much issue getting the cards you need by playing Standard and/or just buying the (relatively) cheap cards needed to build the decks.
Reason number 2: Wizards is cutting support
Here is an example of what will start happening:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...of-this-format
Card shops have an incentive to stay in business. Legacy will bring some business... but if Wizards is trying to give your shop support to support their new format, which format will you choose? One that has a local area support for 20 people or so? Or one that has a massive corporation supporting it AND has 15 or so players (and growing) willing to support?
This is a trickle effect. While SCG may or may not support Modern over Legacy next year (doubtful), SCG WILL eventually see Modern grow enough to support it. Now, this alone wouldn't kill Legacy, but when you include reason one and reason three...
Reason number 3: Elitism
Comments like these will drive away new players.
The newer players will see things like this and will instead play a cheaper, eternal, and WotC supported format. Older players like myself will see this pattern continue, give Modern an objective look, and move over to Modern. Stores will follow, communities will follow. Any one of those alone won't kill Legacy. But all three of them put together? Yes, Legacy will die from those three major glaring reasons. There may be other reasons, such as newer players (or even some older players) not caring for the land destruction strategies from things like Wasteland or Daze. Perhaps the crazy decks like Omnishow turn off new and old players because of how "unfair" they are perceived and/or how they feel forced into using specific decks just to compete. There may be other reasons. Based on what I have seen, the three major reasons are most likely the ones I just discussed.
Accessibility, lost of support from Wizards of the Coast, and elitism.
First of all, Wizards is not cutting support for Legacy. It's as good as ever. However, they are increasing support for Modern. That's different.
The situation is the opposite in Seattle. The biggest store in the area (Card Kingdom) initially supported three weekend Modern events with no Legacy events (http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=4618, http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=4706, http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5193), which were instead held every Monday night. Instead, they have switched to Legacy events on weekends while continuing to hold Legacy events every Monday (http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5034, http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5057, http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5209, http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5148).
Second of all, stores that do hold both Legacy and Modern often find Modern events not firing (http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=5193).
I can't speak for other stores besides these two, since I don't really attend any other stores that advertise both Legacy and Modern events, but if you believe I'm cherry-picking data, feel free to peruse the Northwest Magic forums and find that the local support for Legacy is probably tenfold greater than that for Modern.
I'd be interested in whether the situation in other areas is similar to what dahcmai and Sansian have observed, or whether it's similar to what we see in the Pacific Northwest.
Also, LOL at Legacy failing because of elitism. There are elitist pricks in every single format (probably more so in Standard because it's the "pro thing" to do, noob). Elitism does not kill a format though. Accessibility is the only reason to be concerned about Legacy, but even then, it won't prevent the already existing large player base from continuing to play, and that's enough to enjoy the already extensive support we already have.
@Dragonheart- +1
As jank as they appear, Allies, Knights, or some other random tribe can be a real deck in Modern. That accessibility isn't around in Legacy. I jam like heck with an Necrotic Ooze combo deck in Modern that does much better than bad, a similar deck in Legacy would get laughed at and blown out.
Modern, while lacking true "U draw-go control" (because Mono B control is viable), has a variety of decks open up due to the ban list, which I think is actually pretty decent (save for Nacatl but keep Delver?).
The ban list in Modern makes me feel as though there are only certain Legacy decks that are still playable in Modern, so Modern develops into it's own format instead of Legacy-lite (avoiding the Extended is double-Standard situation.)
Cards deemed (rightfully) unplayable (Nyxathid), have room to shine when not compared to a larger card pool.
The price of Legacy, with the reserved list, limits it's future growth, but not it's playability. Modern has no restriction on growth, and seems it will one day surpass Legacy as Modern is deemed to become more playable.
Cheers,
doesn't mind remand or cryptic command
Last edited by ahg113; 10-16-2012 at 02:35 PM. Reason: spelling is hard
I think it's fair to try and root out elitism in all formats, though. It's one thing to say "these people exist", and admit that it's part and parcel of a competitive game. I think it's another to have a lackadaisical attitude about it. I've been pretty vocal about my dislike of Magic hubris. I'm not saying sugarcoat the tournament scene, that's impossible, but for God's sake just act like a damned grown-up. Be polite, play fast-ish but allow for a little thought now and then, represent the rules to the best of your ability and be a good sport.
The accessibility problem is pretty major in my mind, for the fact that there are more well-known and well-traveled Eternal formats than there have been before. Commander is Eternal for Everyone, then there's Modern, Vintage and Legacy. The number of staples between these four formats is nonzero, and the demand on staples is directly experienced when buying singles. Legacy has the unfortunate responsibility of being the oldest format with the most cards that is also proxy-free and sanctioned. In my view, that's a rough place to be.
- You should note that I wasn't stating that Legacy is dying now. It also shouldn't come a surprise that a new format that is only a year old isn't becoming super popular right away.
How long as Legacy been around? What, since 2007?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_...formats#Legacy
No, since 2004.
Legacy has had 8 years to:
- Develop a meta.
- Gain a community.
- Gain support from companies such as SCG.
Expecting Modern to become as popular as Legacy was after just a year is ridiculous. However, its success now is going to be much more different from it's success 3+ years down the line. I don't think you are cherry picking data. What I do think is you are pointing out that Legacy isn't dying yet.
I also find it interesting that you assume that the "current player base" will continue to be so. Do you think the growing popularity of Legacy is the result of the same group of people and them alone playing it since 2004? I would hope not. Someone that was 14 back then is now 22 years old. Consider this bit of data:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...Legacy-Players
- Most of the people are of the 20-30 range. Which means, back when Legacy first came out, they were 12-22 years old. Oh right, many of them were just kids back then. Do you think all of those people will continue playing Legacy when the rising prices drive away new blood and/or discourage them? Do you think new players will want to dump 400 dollars just for four cards? What about people that just get tired of the direction the format is going?
You are correct about one thing: Elitism does not kill a format. What does kill a format is ridiculously expensive pieces of paper, less support from WotC (in the form of supporting Modern), and elitism.
Modern has none of those issues at the moment.
Standard has elitism.
Block is probably like Standard.
EDH is somewhat expensive but is very casual.
Vintage has almost no support from WotC and the prices for cards are too high. It might have elitism but I honestly don't know.
Legacy has elitism and expensive cards. Even if you want to call in question about WotC cutting support for Legacy, tell me, which fate seems more likely for Legacy when we compare it to the other major formats? If you want to remain in denial like many others than that is your prerogative, but the writing is on the wall.
http://www.findmagiccards.com/Cards/RV/Tundra.html
2009: $35
2010: $48
2011: $75
2012: $99
At the rate tundras are rising, they'll likely be $120 by 2013, $145 by 2014, $170 by 2015, and $195 by 2016.
It won't happen this year and most likely won't happen next year, but I'd bet my money that Legacy is going to look like Vintage in the next 3-5 years. It'll be a slow (and sadly, painful) death.
- I wasn't suggesting that elitism alone in Legacy will kill it. There may be elitism in all formats, but when you combine something drives away new players with two other major problems that further drive away new players, it's just another straw on the camel's back.
If legacy dies in your neighborhood, then move to LA. Legacy will never die here.
- I'll keep that in mind when I move out of the Concord area in New Hampshire.
That will not happen. As convenient as it might be to make a simplistic argument that Legacy is the "new Vintage" (i.e. that it will dwindle in popularity because of Modern, just as the surge in popularity of Legacy resulted in the decline of Vintage), it doesn't have real merit. One can just as easily claim that Modern will go the way of Extended--it will be a relatively popular format during PTQ season because of all the Wizards support, but that it will quickly die because players prefer to play a larger format with a more diverse metagame and more grassroots support (Legacy).
In reality, neither are likely to happen. Modern has some stuff going for it that Extended did not (i.e. the non-rotating nature is appealing, even though it doesn't seem to get more support than Extended did back in the day). Likewise, Legacy has stuff going for it that Vintage does not (i.e. much cheaper staples, a great diversity of deck types which don't overwhelmingly depend on the most limited and expensive staples, extensive local game store support, etc.). While I would not be surprised at all to see Modern become a real format in the next 3-5 years, maybe even edging Legacy in terms of tournament attendance, I do not see Legacy dying or looking anything like Vintage, even in that timeframe.
So basically, the price goes up because the format is getting more popular, but you're taking this as an indication of its inevitable death?
But if the format dies out, wouldn't the prices fall accordingly, reaching an equilibrium?
"Want all, lose all."
- No they won't. If that were the case, cards like Black Lotus would have dropped in price.
You forget that collectors exist. As long as there are collectors willing to buy those cards and hold them, the value of the card will hold.
- And your disingenuous point doesn't earn a serious response from me.
It's a totally valid point. Prices are only at where they are now because of the extreme popularity of the format. This price point is clearly sustainable; otherwise it would be visibly dying (and in many ways it's more popular now than it has ever been). If there was no one willing to pay those prices, they would not be where they are (and given tournament turn-out and the like it's obvious a great many people are willing and able to do so.)
If it reaches a point where it isn't sustainable the prices will drop. Saying "No they won't, look at the prices of Black Lotus!" is not a valid comparison. A card that was only printed only in A/B/U and is literally head-and-shoulders above any other single card as being the most iconic card in the history of the game (coupled with extreme rarity) most decidedly does hold more collectible value (several times over) than any Legacy card. Black Lotus has achieved a pseudo-mainstream recognition (at least among the "mainstream" of dorks and hipsters) that no other cards will ever again approach. Do you think Brandon Bird could've used any other card in his pop art and have it be as understood, even among the "uninitiated," as it was when he used a Lotus? Even Revised Duals (or a select few Legends cards), the only Legacy staples that even flirt with being a valid analogy, simply do not have the collectability of the iconic Alpha/Beta/Unlimited cards like Black Lotus or Moxen.... and if you think cards like Rishadan Port, Force of Will, Wasteland, or any one of one hundred of those types of Legacy staples, would stay as valuable as they are now (or anywhere near as valuable as they are now) because of collectors post-legacy you are insane. Places like Star City could never rely on collectors to move a sufficient amount of Legacy stock if players suddenly stopped buying.... they realize this and would adjust their buy and sell prices accordingly. If collectors, rather than players, had that drastic of an effect on the price of Reserve-Listed Legacy cards then Survival of the Fittest wouldn't be worth 10-15 bucks right now, rather than the 60-70 it hit when it was tearing it up in the format (it's not like it's suddenly less rare). Legacy players lost their need for it when the banhammer fell and its value dropped like a stone, Legacy has been and will always be a format where players have far more of an impact than collectors on the value of its staples.
While I agree with many of the points raised, using my experience as evidence is circumstantial at best. Our store holds Modern FNM and Saturday Legacy, so the turn out is to be expected.
I DO believe that given time modern will grow to outpace legacy merely due to the fact that standard/new players will have cards that they have grown fond of and will want to play. My ability to play legacy is mostly attributed to starting around Legends and hating T2 since the dawn of time. My duals were $10-25 excluding Savannahs which is right about where you find shocks now. My forces were $2 for the set... There is a definite barrier to entry in Legacy that I'd love to see abolished, but WotC has their own silly reasons for not wanting to reprint cards to help Magic's best format.
As things stand, I'll keep showing up for Legacy and Modern and enjoying both (except GR Tron in modern, that deck is nearly as brain-dead as Omniscience).
Luckily The Source already has a Modern sub-forum so we're well prepared for the eventual demise of Legacy.
EDIT: Too bad you can't play CounterTop in Modern, eh?
One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.
It is a fair comparison. Collectors exist and will continue to hold those cards because of their perceived value, which reduces the supply, which increases their value. Just because people will pay for those prices NOW doesn't mean they will continue to do so when prices go up in the future.
Do I think duals will drop in value? I think they might drop a little when Legacy collapses. Will they drop enough to let it revitalize? Nope.
So you think if Legacy were to collapse tomorrow Dual Lands would retain the majority of their value?
I think that's absurd. The only reason they are valued at the price points they're at right now is because players are more than willing to comply with them. If this player-driven demand did not exist they simply would cease to shift stock at their current value. Do you honestly believe that collectors would continue to buy sufficient stock of the Duals if Legacy didn't exist? Do you think Star City, and every other retailer, would keep the Duals at those high price points if no one was buying them? That makes no sense. Comparing them to Moxen and the Black Lotus is flat out a faulty analogy. They don't have the same collectability, cachet, iconic status, or rarity - and they never will. They are worth what they are worth because they are played so heavily in Legacy and the day that Legacy players lose the will or means to buy them at these prices the prices will absolutely fall. Playability is directly tied to value in Legacy. Like I said, Survival's increase in value was directly proportional to its increase in metagame playability. The very instant it suddenly lost its playability its value decreased proportionally - the prices collapsed. It did not become less rare, collectors affecting supply had no impact whatsoever on its value. If suddenly other Legacy cards became less playable (and that doesn't necessarily have to involve a ban. It could be that the meta shifts, it could be that the playerbase contracts and demand wanes, etc.), and not when they become more or less abundant due to collectors, they become less valuable. Wizards could flat-out ban Black Lotus from Vintage and it would not affect its value in the same way, its value is not so directly tied to how widely played it is. A Black Lotus is seen as a collector's item, almost as if it's somehow historically important as an object. A Revised Tropical Island isn't - it's seen as a means to an end, a tool to make your deck stronger.
The same goes for every other Legacy staple. If tomorrow, *poof*, Legacy disappeared do you honestly believe any of the other several dozen Legacy staples would retain their value? Do you honestly believe Force of Will and Wasteland would continue to command such high prices? The notion that collectors would be sitting there on these dragons' hoards of Wastelands and FoW's, throwing them up in the air and continuing to buy more and more from retailers at those "pre-collapse" prices is ludicrous. Collectors can't sustain Legacy (nor do they currently), it is players that have by far the greatest impact on the value of this format's staples. People have been predicting the imminent demise of Legacy for many years now precisely because they treat the rising asking price of these cards as some bizarre phenomenon outside of their control... the exact opposite is true. This format not only continues it thrives. People ramble on and on about Legacy and Vintage being two sides of the same falling coin as if it's such an established fact that it's beyond even being a point of contention - that's ridiculous. Legacy is not Vintage, if it were it would have already been effectively dead for years now. It's so popular because it is so widely played and its staples are so valuable because they're so widely sought and bought.
The high prices you see of this format's staples is not a symptom of the same disease that killed Vintage, it's a by-product of its current immense popularity coupled with its playerbase's willingness to pay what's currently asked. We players tend to blame "collectors" or "retailers" for the price bubble because we lack the self-awareness to blame ourselves. It has nothing to do with scarcity or collectors causing there to be far more demand than there is supply - Dual Lands are not hard to find, they are ubiquitous. Would I prefer that they were cheaper? Sure. They day players decide they are no longer willing to cooperate with this pricing structure the prices will fall.
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