At what cost? If you are scrying 12, that is 4 dead cards in your opening for one, also its not an easy thing to think that your last two scrys will gain you anything. Scry 12 sounds nice, but thats unlikely to be the case much of the time. The first will likely let you keep a card, so the next 3 will in fact be a scry 2. If you keep another card it is scry one. If you ditch that you scry one again. In fact you scryed 7 at the cost of having a 3 card hand with 4 mostly unplayable cards until you can power out 4 mana.
This seems like less of a issue that you are making out. I am not saying I do not like this card in a Blue Stompy shell, I do and I will test. But that's the only place I can see it getting value and even then not full value. It helps you out, but it plays little part in the lock. This card's Scry is not as powerful as Powders free Mull is.
Although now that I'm thinking about it: in vintage where there's a ton more variance due to the restricted list and a ton more compact two card combos I can see it getting the axe.
It's so much worse than probe idk why people are even making this comparison.
The problem with saying that this is going to be some kind of busted consistency tool for Reanimator or Belcher is that
a) If this is in your hand it's 1 resource that's not helping you enable your combo. (Okay, Reanimator plays Chancellor, but it seems like Belcher can't really afford these slots).
b) If the main objective of your deck is to nutdraw the opp on the play then you won't have a draw step and can't even use any of the value you get off the scry.
Ben Friedman's take on it for Shadow/Delver decks was kind of interesting but I still don't think I'm on board with that either
Last edited by Ronald Deuce; 01-07-2019 at 03:04 AM.
All Spells Primer under construction: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...Tl7utWpLo0/pub
PM me if you want to contribute!
G1: T1 kill, Pact protected
G2: T2 kill, Force protected
G3: T3 kill, mulligan to 6, Force protected
G4: T1 kill unprotected; T2 kill (Daze-proof)
G5: Fizzle; T6 kill, Force and Pact protected
G6: Fizzle; T5 kill, mulligan to 6, Pact protected
G7: T3 kill, Force protected
G8: T3 kill, Force protected (N.B.: This is the first game I got to Scry more than once off of Sphinxes. Didn't need the second one.)
G9: T3 kill, mulligan to 5, Pact protected
G10: T2 kill, Force protected
How many of these games did you have it in opening hand?
Are you expected to be on the draw each game? (Otherwise there's not a lot of value in a deck that really needs to win on turn 1.)
-rob
I anticipated always being on the play—not to gain a timing advantage but to see whether the restructured deck would function with a smaller hand (a lack of Rogues is usually the main problem one faces). So one could read each of the fundamental turns as being a turn earlier if one were on the draw (except, obv., T1s), though I didn't want to give myself or the idea behind the build the benefit of the doubt.
You're right that this functions a bit differently from the orthodox lists; my aim was to examine the likelihood that it could combo off with countermagic in hand rather than to try to go off immediately every game. A different set of parameters, but still one I think is worth examining in the same shell. And based on a pinpoint-sized set of data, it appears that it works.
And before anyone asks, I realized I posted a transitional list that was incomplete (lacked a Street Wraith—oops). I just switched out a Chancellor of the Annex because I wasn't really looking at Chancellor hands as fundamentally "safe" and because I think it's the least useful piece of protection. I corrected it here and in the deck's new and developmental thread.
All Spells Primer under construction: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...Tl7utWpLo0/pub
PM me if you want to contribute!
Idk how useful this is in Sphinx discussions but over on themanadrain someone ran a mathematical analysis of how it helps you get a single card into your hand (in that case bazzar) based on serum powder versus Sphinx. Providing it below in case that math can be helpful to this discussion (with the understanding the no legacy deck tried to single mindledly to get a single card).
Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%
I'm on board with not being on board, but could this card enable a worthwhile Temporal Mastery deck?
Edit: Maybe pushes Modern Taking Turns into the realm of only semi-laughable?
Thanks for posting that, Cire!
A couple of things that differentiate Sphinx from Serum Powder, especially regarding the decklist I posted:
—Powder is better for finding one card, but Vintage Dredge only needs two cards to start its engines, and All Spells needs at least four.
—Mulligans are more all-in than scries. (Obviously as a counterpoint, Sphinx is a "dead card" without Force or Chrome Mox.) All Spells had stellar mulligans back in the Probe days, but I'm interested in solidifying the deck rather than speeding it up.
—Sphinx pitches to Force. Probe could've done the same thing, but a) it's gone now, and b) drawing cards is less useful than one would like in the deck. Seeing/filtering your topdecks, however, is helpful.
EDIT: Crucially, you CANNOT exile a number of cards from this deck and still win the game, so Serum Powder's a no-go.
Hope I'm not going off track with this stuff; if mods want to move this discussion (perhaps to the Rogue Hermit thread), that's great by me!
All Spells Primer under construction: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...Tl7utWpLo0/pub
PM me if you want to contribute!
I have a hard time deciphering the data (btw - provided by bactgudz of themanadrain), but the initial thoughts are:
1) Sphinx is better than Powder on the draw
2) Sphinx also doesn't exile your hand like Powder so you can run it with more fragile combos.
3) Unlike Powder, Spinx is not a total dead card since it can be pitched to FOW, imprinted on Chrome Mox, and even played as a threat if need be.
4) Granted (1) is only useful 50% of Game 1's, but lets say it provides a minus on the play by 10%, as long as it provides a plus on the play of 10+%, it should still overall be a positive addition.
While people are thinking of oops or spells, I'm thinking of Breakfast. That seems like the perfect combo to help with the sphinx (i.e. fragile pieces that aren't exiled with powder, two cards that you must get in hand, running blue for FOW).
Proposed List:
What did I have for Breakfast?
"Sphinx Suite"
4 Sphinx of Foresight
4 Force of Will
4 Chrome Mox
"Cephalid Combo"
4 Nomads en-Kor
4 Cephalid Illusionist
4 Lazav, the Multifarious
4 Recruiter of the Guard
3 Narcomoeba
1 Lotleth Giant
1 Dread Return
(with Sphinx you run at least 24 creature for Lotleth Giant kill)
"Other Blue Stuff"
4 Brainstorm
4 Daze
2 Open Spots
17 Lands
There's other stuff that can recycle value for cards in hand like Brainstorm+fetch and Faithless Looting.
I'm curious what the assumptions there are since you have to make the Serum Powder decisions before you get the scry, and there's the potential to exile Sphinxes with the powder. (The odds of getting a sphinx and a powder or two powders in the same opening 7 aren't that low.)Originally Posted by Circe
How high is the probability that these Scrys leave you without Brainstorm or FoW to shuffle/pitch these Air Elementals?
As i see it, these cards trade a virtual handcard for a T0 Scry 3 while also acting as pitch and lategame beater. If you ever found yourself mulling for FoWs or SB cards in postboard games, this card is a very legit way of increasing your odds to start a game with these outs.
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No clue - the percentages were taken from bactgudz of themanadrain. But even there it was noted by him that powder and sphinx create two different mulligan strategies: (1) Do I max the prob I have it on the play, or (2) Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw. As such it is probably a mistake to include both in the deck.
BOOM. Well stated; sideboard games get a lot more consistent, especially if you're in the unfortunate situation of having lost g1 and need the right cards to nail down g2. It's like an anti-Leyline. Rather than forcing you into mulligans to find one you can actually use this as an extra 'muligan' without compromising your game plan as much.
I'll say it again: this is an elegant, powerful card. Love it. I know this is probably a little too deep, but does this card help the mono-blue Delver fringe deck? It helps an awful lot in getting that t1 delver to flip and it's a threat that gets you outside Abrupt Decay range.
New Domri is pretty 'meh'. Standard GR agro powerhouse, but I don't think it will make it's way outside of that format.
http://www.magicspoiler.com/mtg-spoi...chaos-bringer/
Brainstorm Realist
I close my eyes and sink within myself, relive the gift of precious memories, in need of a fix called innocence. - Chuck Shuldiner
People will try it, for sure. If it doesn't make it as a competitive card, it will awfully fucking close. Probe it is not, but the fact that it exists is a really good indication of a set of 4 mana chancellor types in each color. I'm fairly excited to see what they do with the others.
Brainstorm Realist
I close my eyes and sink within myself, relive the gift of precious memories, in need of a fix called innocence. - Chuck Shuldiner
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