[Article] Percentages, by Zac Hill

[Bardo]

Article (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/16035.html), by Zac Hill

Not about Legacy per se (though there is some talk about the Legacy portion of Worlds), but it is one of the better articles on SCG that I've read in a while.


The fallacy of percentages is that focusing too heavily on them rapidly leads to the assumption that a certain deck is “entitled” to win a certain portion of the time, and thus that the differences between whether you win or lose a given game are largely due to some ephemeral set of numbers over which you exert at best a minimal amount of control.

Anyway, I dug it.

[Nightmare]

Pretty good, albeit relatively obvious. Don't let the matchup percentages fool you.

[Internet Hate Machine]

So that explains how thresh still top8s when its 30/70 with the format! :laugh:

[Eldariel]

Awesome article. Now that the cat is out, I'll have to actually write explanations of each match-up and the variables thereof if I ever get by writing that Faerie Stompy Primer. Damnit.

[AnwarA101]

The fallacy of percentages is that focusing too heavily on them rapidly leads to the assumption that a certain deck is “entitled” to win a certain portion of the time, and thus that the differences between whether you win or lose a given game are largely due to some ephemeral set of numbers over which you exert at best a minimal amount of control. The truth is that those percentages arise due to a certain set of game conditions that exploit or advance the strategy of one particular archetype. It’s those game conditions with which we need to be preoccupied, because a correct synthesis of what does and does not matter will aid you in far more victories than the knowledge that, if you were to play 10,000 matches, you’d win 6500 of them.


There is something to be said for not taking it for granted. Even if you are way ahead in a matchup there are still 30-40% of the games the deck does lose to the opposing deck. Those conditions can and do occur in real games so there is no reason to assume that you will win a favored matchup. So while I agree that the numbers aren't everything, but they do provide a way to understand whether choosing a certain deck is worthwhile. Picking a deck that is consistently behind most decks in the format will make for a tough tournament experience.