How are you guys sure that Tarmogoyf's price WON'T plummet when it rotates out?

[SuckerPunch]

I recall a discussion several months ago about Goyf's price here. Everyone was convinced that Goyf won't drop in price significantly post rotation?

I'm starting to think that's all nonsense.

Name one chase rare that didn't plummet atleast 40% in price when it rotated out?

Sure Goyf is better in extended and legacy and is very sought after there.

But there is a crapload of type 2 players than legacy and extended players.

By a crapload, I mean atleast 10 times as many. Just look around you. Barely anyone plays legacy. Every store that offers FNM and regular tourneys heavily supports type 2. Legacy almost never gets support, and when it does, it's an afterthough with about a 1/10th as much attendence.

There are a lot of Goyfs out there. Future Sight, the whole time spiral block sold by the boatload. Far more so than any other block in magic's history, look it up.

Every competitive type 2 player has a playset, and they are all about to get rid of them.

So would the price not plummet when they do?

What standard chase rares haven't?

[SuckerPunch]

To be clear, I think the price will reach it's bottom before early next year as standard players slowly get rid of it, then go back up slightly.

What I want to hear is, how low will it go.

Tarmogoyf has already peaked clearly. According to this chart... http://findmagiccards.com/Cards/FS/Tarmogoyf.html and this... http://magictraders.com/cgi-bin/query.cgi?list=magic&target=tarmogoyf&field=0&operator=re

Goyf was at it's peak close to a $50 card. Now it's at about $28.

Do you expect a sub $20 price? Is $28 close to it's bottoming off point?

Honestly, keeping track of this will tell us a lot about both our estimates of the popularity of standard, price fluxes, and reality.

[Joe_C]

has anyone looked at mutavault prices? That is absurd.

Tarmogoyf I could see levelling out around $25-$30 a piece. Vintage also has a home for them, so I can see people wanting them in the future

[FoolofaTook]

The odds are pretty good that Tarmogoyf's price will drop significantly when it rotates out of Standard. It's just a supply and demand thing, players who only play Standard will have no reason to maintain a playset of Goyfs and they'll likely sell them to finance the purchase of several other sets of chase rares that are relevant to them.

The means a lot of Goyfs on the market and a dropping price. Store prices have already begun to decline in the last month or two with prices going down a bit as stock goes up. The change has not been dramatic but it's there. The online store I go too most often, which will remain nameless to comply with forum rules had about 25 Goyfs on sale at $45 a couple of months ago, it has 54 on sale at $41.99 now. It'll have 72 on sale for $39.99 when Goyf rotates out and then the price will likely drop quickly from there.

[SuckerPunch]

Breunor, I provided two links. Goyf's already in the $25-30 price range. It's actually closer to the $25 end of the spectrum.

Are you saying it won't get any lower once it officially rotates out?

Has the flurry of people getting rid of it anticipating it's rotation already reached fever pitch?

[FoolofaTook]

No, the online stores just mark significantly higher than trading sites or eBay.

I'd suspect that Tarmogoyf might settle in at $19.99 when things finally stabilize. It's not going to be reprinted again so rarity will increase, however there's a real chance it gets banned in Extended and possibly Legacy.

[SuckerPunch]

Actually, both links I provided takes ebay's prices into account. MOTL (the second link) goes exclusively by ebay's prices.

When Goyf's price falls to sub $20 and it becomes easy to trade for, I anticipate that the calls for banning it will largely disappear.

If it was going to get banned, it already would have when it was still legal in standard..

It would be foolish to ban it now, when it's out of standard. Banning it elsewhere would really plummet the price of Tarmogoyf and really piss off a lot of players and collectors off.

Honestly, I think this here is the key question. If you end up being right, I'll give you a cookie...

When will Goyf's price be the absolute lowest?

Will it be immediately when it leaves standard, right after Gencon (wasn't that this weekend?) or will the anticipation that everyone is selling it for cheap at the moment cause fewer people to sell it and more to buy it right then, and thus, the bottoming out will be either a little while before, or after rotation?

And here's another key question...

Will there be a spike in extended/legacy when Time Spiral rotates out as it was such a popular block that sold by the truck load?

Will there be a spike in the number of real life legacy players that play Goyf based decks (Eva Green, Dreadstill splash Goyf etc) once the card becomes easy to get.

Will that spike in turn increase calls for a banning?

[FoolofaTook]

Price is not the entire issue with Goyf. Not being able to play with a wide variety of previously playable creatures has a lot to do with it as well.

I don't know about you but I would burn my 4 Goyfs if it would make all the other creatures with a wide range of playable effects more playable again. Goyf is dumbing down Legacy deckbuilding and forcing an extreme degree of conformity in the meta.

[SuckerPunch]

That's a very good point. Do you anticipate that it will get much worse in real life (not just in theory) once Goyfs become easy to get that even players new to legacy have a playset.

On one hand, because of what you said, I do want Goyf to be banned to bring 2/2s back into the format.

On the other hand, I think doing so now sending Goyf's price in freefall would piss too many people off.

And most importantly, I fear that banning Goyf would set a really really bad precedent. It is a vanilla creature afterall. Has a creature that didn't have a broken ability ever been banned before, in any format in the history of magic?

Were the changes that Goyf introduced actually very healthy for the format and much needed, moving even the bad players away from their Savannah Lions and Carnophages and into real actual threats. Perhaps fast aggro deserved a better class of beater.

[Bardo]

Blame it on the shitty value of the dollar in the global economy.

Also, note this website is titled "The Source: Your Source for Legacy," not "The Source: Your Source to Bitch about Tarmogoyf." There are way too many (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10392) of these threads. Locked.