DTB Threshold UGx Again?

[jazzykat]

Many decks except storm combo claims a positive Thresh matchup. HOWEVER, according to our tabulated results there are no less than 3 major different splash archetypes of Thresh as DTB not even any DTW.

How can this be? Is it at the heigh of Thresh's popularity everyone plunked down the money for the cards and now they are stuck playing them? Do the German's have a secret fan club to play a "Bad Deck" that continues to top 8 month after month? I'm at a loss here, why is it that every deck is so good vs. Thresh but all 3 major variants are in the DTB month after month?

[Skeggi]

Many decks except storm combo claims a positive Thresh matchup.
Many decks underestimate Threshold I think. An experienced Thresh player can win any match-up, that's a fact.

[Damoxx]

It's hard to define how powerful consistency is in a deck. Threshold's power come from it's ability to consistently find answers and/or threats. While thresh is doing this the other deck that have the "answers" to Thresh they can not consistently find them. That's just my opinion.

[rockout]

It's hard to define how powerful consistency is in a deck. Threshold's power come from it's ability to consistently find answers and/or threats. While thresh is doing this the other deck that have the "answers" to Thresh they can not consistently find them. That's just my opinion.

I agree with Damoxx. Consistency is huge. If your deck is able to play basically the same way or nearly the same way every game and be able to function on a low mana curve with efficient threats, then you have a strong DTB.

Also, the fact that it's DTB every month is a lot of people play it? That is also something to take into consideration. (Not to down play the decks success or power.)

[Aggro_zombies]

Many decks except storm combo claims a positive Thresh matchup.

claims
I think you answered your own question there. When even Threshold has a 60-40 Threshold matchup, it's pretty obvious that some people are lying or are not testing against competent/good players.

For example, when I play ANT I have a 100% positive matchup against every Threshold splash...as long as my ten year old sister is playing the Threshold deck.

[Omega]

testings are still not very accurate. In real tournaments, you rarely know exactly what you opponent is playing.

When doing testings with my brother, we both know each other decks. That way, i know if i have to play safe with my basic lands or if i can play all in with duals. We also know if its worth playing aggressive or not. In real game, you dont have those informations. You dont always know what to counter, and what to let go.

The best example is when testing combo. The testings are clearly biased. Combo usually run 8 cantrip with a manabase similar to ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh (ANT and Doomsday). This can lead an opponent to think that you are playing tres.hold. In practice, you cant really bait like that.
In testing too, a combo player knowing what his testing partner plays can play more/less aggressively. If you are playing against tres.hold. You have to watch for daze, fow and CB. Stifle can be a concern too. So you will wait until you get all the protection spells to combo safely.
If your partner is playing landstill, you know that you can go aggressive because he only has fow to stop your first turn combo.

Also, testings ignore the fact that you will not always meet the same deck/same player at a tournament. Some mentionned it already, but you can play against a bad pilot, or against a good pilot. This can change things.

I agree on consistency
Decks like standstil, although superior to ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh, can lose to themselves (mulligan).
With 8+ canttrip, ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh can easily turn a crappy hand into a good hand within the first few turns.
Stompy deck are clearly superior to ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh... of course, when they dont lose to their inconsistency. COTV, Moon, Trinisphere are all gamebreaking cards... yet, DS is clearly not a concern in a major tournament, because it will most likely lose to itself.

Why would you deliberately evade the censor if you actually know how to spell the word 'Threshold?' Verbal warning for being dumb---frogboy

[4eak]

It could also be the case that many decks have a decent match against Threshold, but also have very poor matches against other decks. Threshold pretty much has a decent match, even if not always favorable, against every deck out there. The ability to play against all decks at least decently could easily be the reason it shows up time and time again.

Threshold is a deck with few weaknesses. Many decks that can have a positive matchup against Threshold often have made serious sacrifices against other archetypes and strategies. Decks that have a kink in their armor, even if they can perform well or decently against Threshold, are likely to be weeded out by other decks at a tournament.

Lastly, I have to admit that some of the most skilled players just end up playing aggro-control decks like Threshold. Many find it a natural and easy role to play, and they feel comfortable going to tournament with the deck, even if they don't know exactly what they will face. I don't know too many very skilled players that choose to pick up decks other than Threshold (and Landstill), and that certainly affects tournament results. There are usually only a handful of pilots for each of the less popular archetypes that really play virtuously, and that would be another reason why many Established decks simply stay there.




peace,
4eak

[Aleksandr]

testings are still not very accurate. In real tournaments, you rarely know exactly what you opponent is playing.


Sometimes I set Chalice@16; incase Nourishing Lich comes by and tries to hardcast an Autochton Worm...

[4eak]

And even though I know that it sounds like mantra, never forget that many of pure aggro decks lose horribly to dedicated control, while many dedicated control lose to time limit.I think that is a solid example of other decks having kinks in their armor

http://xs536.xs.to/xs536/09072/armorkinks738.jpg

where Threshold doesn't across the general field.

Take Quinn. With no time limits, that deck is sick; seriously, it is amazing. I consider the deck to have better general matches across the board than even Threshold. A good portion of matches it would have won just go down the tubes because in most tournaments you have to win 2 out of 3 in 50 minutes.

I think that time limit example is a strong one. There are many matches where archetypes, especially dedicated control, require the time in the late game for that inevitable win. Threshold is much more adaptable not just to a metagame, but even to tournament rule restrictions like time limits. Threshold plays the default role in tournament settings, aggro-control: have enough control not to lose and to protect your threats, but consistently win as quickly as possible.

Additionally, I also think Threshold has a lot of that goodstuff.dec going on...take the very best, highest functioning, lowest cost cards from each color, form some synergy around a specific role, and let it rip.





peace,
4eak

[spirit of the wretch]

Counter/Goyf!

Yep, it's really that simple.

In my own experience, if you win a game with Thresh it's 50% of the time on the back off a 2CC Enchantment and the other half is because your opponent makes more mistakes than you do.

[Shugyosha]

Its just a deck that plays the best removal, the best creatures and the best counters to protect them and on top of that features the best fixing/cantrip spells to find what you need.

In contrast other decks usually take one or two areas like the best creatures and the best burn or the best counters and the best removal which leads to ver good and very bad matchups. Thresholds matchups are more evened out. If they are mostly above or below avarage depends on the pilot then.

Lets take Landstill and Threshold for example. Mainboard both are really bad against Ichorid. Threshold however wins occasionally because of an early Tarmogoyf that exploits bad dredges. Landstill can occasionally EE tokens, Wish for Extirpate or play Humility but still has a hard time winning thereafter.

[FoolofaTook]

The Threshold variant that is becoming the DTB is the Canadian Threshold that split at Winter Wonderland in January. Stifle and Wasteland alongside a more traditional Threshold engine are doing a great job of cutting the middle of the meta at the moment.

Chalice aggro decks are obviously failing in their role of suppressing this.

[Nihil Credo]

The Threshold variant that is becoming the DTB is the Canadian Threshold that split at Winter Wonderland in January.

You might want to try to back that up with some numbers. 'Cause the ones I found say the opposite.

[FoolofaTook]

You might want to try to back that up with some numbers. 'Cause the ones I found say the opposite.

I see more Ugr Thresh, Thrash and Canadian in the top 8's than Ugw variants. And I see more of both than Ugb. Almost all of the Ugr variants are using Stifle/Wasteland as fast disruption, with some of them using the Moon build, although that seems to be falling out of favor. I guess what I should have said is that Ugr Threshold featuring mana disruption seems to be the branch of the tree that is most dominant at the moment. That would have been a better way of explaining what I was seeing.

[Nihil Credo]

I see more Ugr Thresh, Thrash and Canadian in the top 8's than Ugw variants. And I see more of both than Ugb. Almost all of the Ugr variants are using Stifle/Wasteland as fast disruption, with some of them using the Moon build, although that seems to be falling out of favor.

Counterbalance Threshold - 11 placements last month
Tempo Threshold - 8 placements

Canadian Thresh may look the most common because it constitutes almost the entirety of Tempo lists, whereas the CB/T archetype allows more colour flexibility, but you're still more likely to face CounterTop Threshold than Stifle/Waste Threshold in a Top 8 match - and, in my opinion, in a Swiss too.

(It's worth noting that if we 'zoom out' a bit and focus more on strategies, Stifle/Waste becomes a bigger threat thanks to decks like Merfolk, TA and Dreadstill adopting it while CounterTop is only run by Dreadstill, Fish and a few control lists).

[goobafish]

Counterbalance Threshold - 11 placements last month
Tempo Threshold - 8 placements

Canadian Thresh may look the most common because it constitutes almost the entirety of Tempo lists, whereas the CB/T archetype allows more colour flexibility, but you're still more likely to face CounterTop Threshold than Stifle/Waste Threshold in a Top 8 match - and, in my opinion, in a Swiss too.

(It's worth noting that if we 'zoom out' a bit and focus more on strategies, Stifle/Waste becomes a bigger threat thanks to decks like Merfolk, TA and Dreadstill adopting it while CounterTop is only run by Dreadstill, Fish and a few control lists).

Shouldn't you be comparing apples to apples then? How many people go to an event piloting the specific Canadian list compared to any combination of the many many counterbalance lists that exist? (Moon, 4cc, 5cc, Ugw, Ugr, Swan). You are comparing a single deck to an entire archetype. Canadian Threshold has more top 8's last month than any particular other threshold deck. If you are going to compare archetype to archetype, then don't other tempo decks like Team America fall into tempo threshold, or tempo aggro category?

(editing to avoid spam)

Jaiminho already answered, but to clarify: by Tempo Threshold or Thrash, I mean lists with Stifle-Wasteland and no Counterbalance. By Canadian Threshold, I mean the Thrash subset splashing red for burn spells. - NC

[Jaiminho]

Counterbalance Threshold - 11 (5 UGW, 1 UGB, 2 UGWB, 3 UGR)

and

Thrash - 8 (7 UGR, 1 UGB)


I guess those are the numbers you are looking for, then. Anyway, archetyping stuff does no good, since you might choose the level of grouping that suits your analysis the best, ending up with the numbers you wish. Such as grouping blue tempo aggro-control decks and CB aggro-control decks. Or you might simply split down to Tempo Thresh and CB Thresh. Or each of the color variants. Or Red Tempo Thrash and White (+ minor splash) CB Thresh. Or whatever. You get the point.

[Damoxx]

Anyway, archetyping stuff does no good, since you might choose the level of grouping that suits your analysis the best, ending up with the numbers you wish.


I guess there is a reason each thresh archetype has it's own thread in the DTB forum.

[FoolofaTook]

We also need to look at how often decks are being piloted recently. It is my impression, which could be mistaken, that Ugw variants are piloted more often than any other threshold variant but that Ugr variants, particularly Canadian Threshold are winning more often compared to the number of overall entrants.

I really believe that the Ugr variants are the more dangerous archetype at this point because they are more proactive in disrupting the opponent's gameplan and have more "oops, I win" results than the CounterTop variants.

[TheLion]

I guess there is a reason each thresh archetype has it's own thread in the DTB forum.

And I always wonder why... Other threads discussing an archetype aren't splitted in their variants neither.
There is no UGw Countersliver thread and an UGb or an UGbw one. Nor are there different threads discussing variants with or without Stifle.

Or take The Rock. There are so many variants, but only one thread.

Or take Goblins. One thread. No different ones for Mono, R/g, R/b.

@topic: I think Threshold has a very good reputation, besides being a solid deck. I have no idea about its matchups or anything, nor did I ever played it. But that deck has the feeling, that it can beat everything theoretically, which makes it very appealing and might be a reason for its consistent high appearance on tournaments.



Additionally, I also think Threshold has a lot of that goodstuff.dec going on


Yeah, actually, why is it still called Threshold? Afaik, most lists only run 4 Mongoose as their only cards with Threshold, and the deck is not really build around that creature (unlike Survival e.g.).

[kicks_422]

Because each Thresh variant have different "feels" when you're playing them. Some say that the UGW builds are more control-ish, the UGR builds are more aggro-ish, and the UGB builds are more, um... I dunno. Same reason why they split up the Landstill variants.

Goblins just plays guys and smashes, with the colors mattering only for the removal package and the sideboard. The Rock is a mess, since I don't think anybody could pinpoint what it really means right now.

[SpatulaOfTheAges]

Yeah, actually, why is it still called Threshold? Afaik, most lists only run 4 Mongoose as their only cards with Threshold, and the deck is not really build around that creature (unlike Survival e.g.).

I love you.


Die Deckname Nazis. Die.

[Nihil Credo]

It's worth noting that threads need to be organised with one first and foremost purpose: to make discussion as easy as possible.

If splitting a deck archetype in multiple threads helps with that (because there are multiple ongoing conversations stepping all over each other), there's a big incentive to separate and little to keep everything together. And conversely, sometimes the discussion will revolve around such fundamental elements of deckbuilding that it's best to have a single thread where the various models can be compared against each other (such as the Rock thread). Sometimes we can have both, like in the case of Survival where sub-variants have their own thread but there's also a "big tent" thread to compare directions.

[FoolofaTook]

It's worth noting that threads need to be organised with one first and foremost purpose: to make discussion as easy as possible.

If splitting a deck archetype in multiple threads helps with that (because there are multiple ongoing conversations stepping all over each other), there's a big incentive to separate and little to keep everything together.

In the case of Ugw and Ugr Threshold the decks play so little like each other that it's hard to imagine having them in the same thread. You'd have cross-currents all over the place and discussion would become diffuse and hard to follow.

I think Goblins and Elves are more similar in the way they play than Ugw CounterTop and Ugr Canadian.

[undone]

Threshold wins for one simple reason.

Every deck has an 80/20 matchup against it!

The thing is that no one can really hve n 80/20 against threshold due to the nature of the deck. LD doesnt work because they cantrip into more. Removing guys doesnt work they cantrip into more. Killing them doesnt work they cantrip into things that stop you. Not casting spells they _________ ?
The only way to beat threshold is to not cast spells and still deal with creatures which means LANDS and ichorid have the best bet against them. Lands is alot worse than ichorid because it has 0 combo match, and isnt more than 60/40 or 70/30 with threshold while ichorid is like 70/30 to 80/20 game 1.

[DeathwingZERO]

Thresh is simply the par for the format. Combine the ability to run fast and cheap threats, the best overall cantrip engine in the game with almost always nearly free disruption (and permanent based soft locks), and you've got an all around good deck.

Combine those points with the fact that the deck can take at minimum 4 different directions based on color and metagame influences, and it's not really a surprise why the deck still continues to place.

Simply put: it's the best at what it does, and that's get to what it needs right away, and protect it.