Most common cards at GP Chicago Day 2

[georgjorge]

There's been talk about the GP Chicago Top 8, but I think that in general the Day 2 breakdown says a lot more about the format than the Top 8. Making Day 2 in a GP is like making Top 8 at a 100+ player tournament, it's a sure sign of a deck being competitive (though Byes distort the results somewhat).

EDIT: I had estimated some rough numbers about what were the most played cards on Day 2, but GreenOne took up the task of actually counting them, so I edited his numbers into this post (more detailed infos see some posts below)...

Out of 132 decks, there are

70 playing Wasteland
66 playing Force of Will
66 playing Brainstorm
54 playing Tarmogoyf
46 playing Daze
45 playing Sensei's Divining Top
43 playing Ponder
37 playing Counterbalance
34 playing Swords to Plowshares
33 playing Aether Vial
33 playing Dark Confidant
30 playing Thoughtseize
25 playing Spell Snare
24 playing Standstill


Popular cards who didn't make that list include Dark Ritual, Nimble Mongoose, Stifle (maindeck), or Life from the Loam.

So let's see...apart from Wasteland, that's

1. disruption (blue)
2. card draw (blue)
3. beater (green)
4. disruption (blue)
5. card draw (artifact)
6. card draw (blue)
7. permanent disruption (blue)
8. removal (white)
9. creature enabler (artifact)
10. permanent card draw (black)
11. disruption (black)
12. disruption (blue)
13. card draw (blue)


Interesting, isn't it ?

[Nihil Credo]

It's quite unsurprising once you consider


only counting decks showing up more than five times on Day 2...Which makes me wonder: why? Either their cards won't make the cut or, if some of them do, it means they're played a lot through multiple archetypes, so they should be taken into consideration. Thoughtseize, StP, Chalice and Confidant come to mind here.

[memnarch]

Its not surprising when you consider the thresh dominance still and the overlap between archetypes. For instance landstill is a big player and Merfolk use standstill as well. And wasteland is used in sooo many archetypes. I'm at of the loop on tourneys. Is it still going? Do we have a final report of best decks?

[georgjorge]

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

[etrigan]

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

If you're going to do a breakdown like this, and decklists are available (http://www.thestarkingtonpost.com/?p=463), you should take the time to do it correctly.

For instance, I counted 31 decks playing 4x Aether Vial, and one playing 3x.

[GreenOne]

Slowly doing the work. Going to edit that post with more results. EDIT: done.

132 total decks.
More played cards in order from the most played to the less played (excluding basics, duals, fetches).

FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 2
Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck playing it: 3,98
Average per deck: 1,99
Wasteland:
Number of decks playing it: 70
How many: 4x53 + 3x15 + 1x2 = 259
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,96
Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90
Daze
Number of decks playing it: 56
How many: 4x38 + 3x14 + 2x3 +1x1 = 201
Average per deck playing it: 3,59
Average per deck: 1,52
Ponder
Number of decks playing it: 43
How many: 4x26 + 3x6 + 2x11 = 144
Average per deck playing it: 3,35
Average per deck: 1,09
Sensei's Divining Top
Number of decks playing it: 45
How many: 4x15 + 3x21 + 2x5 + 1x4 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,04
Average per deck: 1,04
Counterbalance
Number of decks playing it: 37
How many: 4x26 + 3x11 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,04
Swords to Plowshares
Number of decks playing it: 34
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 + 1x1 = 132
Average per deck playing it: 3,88
Average per deck: 1
Aether Vial
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 = 131
Average per deck playing it: 3,97
Average per deck: 0,99
Thoughtseize
Number of decks playing it: 30
How many: 4x15 + 3x6 + 2x7 + 1x2 = 94
Average per deck playing it: 3,13
Average per deck: 0,71
Standstill
Number of decks playing it: 24
How many: 4x20 + 3x4 = 92
Average per deck playing it: 3,83
Average per deck: 0,70
Spell Snare
Number of decks playing it: 25
How many: 4x7 + 3x13 + 2x5 = 77
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,58
Duress
Number of decks playing it: 18
How many: 4x11 + 3x4 + 2x2 +1x1 = 61
Average per deck playing it: 3,38
Average per deck: 0,46
Lion's Eye Diamond
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x13 + 3x1 = 55
Average per deck playing it: 3,93
Average per deck: 0,42
Dark Ritual
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x11 = 44
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,33

It's worth noting that Goyf, Fow, Brainstorm and Wasteland have basically the same showings, with the other cards being a lot less present.

[godryk]

Not to be harsh, I really appreciate the work you're doing, but I'd like to point out: what do you understand by average per deck?

I mean:


FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck: 2

Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

Same happens to other cards:


Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck: 1,99

Isn't avarage copies per deck equal to total number of copies of a card divided by the number of decks playing it? In the case of Brainstorm (66 decks playing it, only playing 3 copies) the average would be 263/66=3,98, which sounds much better to me.

But, I insist, I'm far from being an expert in "statistic" an maybe this post it's a total nonsense.

:wink:

[ParkerLewis]

Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

That just means he meant average between the TOTAL number of decks. Not average between only the decks that played it.

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number betweend decks that played the card ?

Or you could just give both. Or none, since it can be directly deducted from the previous informations : )

[godryk]

Thank you all for enlighten me. :wink:

I incorrectly assumed he meant: average per deck playing the card, which wasn't obviously what was written.

EDIT: I've seen you've added the average por deck playing the card, I think the whole thing gets more interesting. Thanks again.

[Taurelin]

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number between decks that played the card ?

I would say yes. If 50 decks play 4x FoW, and 50 don't play blue at all, that would mean the average number is 2 (per deck, total). Now, that number seems rather insignificant to me.

If you say, however, of those decks using FoW, the average number is 4, that would mean: If you put FoW in a deck, the corrrect number is 4. And this is a relevant observation, imho.

[GreenOne]

Bonus Section: the beaterz of legacy in order of popularity, analyzing only day 2 of the GP obv.

Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90

Dark Confidant
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 2x1 = 130
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,98

Mogg Fanatic
Number of decks playing it: 23
How many: 4x20 + 3x2 + 2x1 = 88
Average per deck playing it: 3,82
Average per deck: 0,67

Goblin Lackey
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 4x17 = 68
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,52

Mishra's Factory
Number of decks playing it: 16
How many: 4x15 + 3x1 = 63
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,48

Mutavault
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x9 + 3x4 + 2x1 = 50
Average per deck playing it: 3,57
Average per deck: 0,38

Nimble Mongoose
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x10 + 3x1 = 43
Average per deck playing it: 3,91
Average per deck: 0,33

Trygon predator (Majority in the MD)
Number of decks playing it: 20
How many: 3x3 + 2x16 + 1x1 = 42
Average per deck playing it: 2,1
Average per deck: 0,32

Sower of Temptation (circa 2/3 MD 1/3 SB)
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 3x7 + 2x9 + 1x1 = 40
Average per deck playing it: 2,35
Average per deck: 0,30

Vexing Shusher (circa half MD, half SB)
Number of decks playing it: 12
How many: 4x6 + 3x3 + 2x1 + 1x2 = 37
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,28

Trinket Mage
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x2 + 3x4 + 2x8 = 36
Average per deck playing it: 2,57
Average per deck: 0,27

Merrow Reejerey
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x8 =32
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,24

Tombstalker
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x3 + 3x1 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 22
Average per deck playing it: 2,75
Average per deck: 0,17

Phyrexian Dreadnought
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x1 + 3x3 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 2,5
Average per deck: 0,15

Golgari Grave-Troll
Number of decks playing it: 5
How many: 4x5 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,15

Magus of the Moon
Number of decks playing it: 6
How many: 4x2 + 3x2 +2x1 +1x1 = 17
Average per deck playing it: 2,83
Average per deck: 0,13

Figure of Destiny
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Kird Ape
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Vendilion Clique
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 3x1 + 2x4 + 1x2 = 13
Average per deck playing it: 1,86
Average per deck: 0,10

Spellstutter Sprite
Number of decks playing it: 3
How many: 4x3 = 12
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,09

Wild Nacatl
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Painter's Servant
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Progenitus
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 1x7 = 7
Average per deck playing it: 1
Average per deck: ---

Nantuko Shade
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x1 + 2x1 = 6
Average per deck playing it: 3
Average per deck: 0,05

Hypnotic Specter
Number of decks playing it: 1
How many: 4
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,03


Decks playing creatures in the MD and NOT playing Tarmogoyf*:
17 Goblin
9 Merfolk
5 Dredge
4 Burn/RDW (fanatics+Keldon Marauders..)
2 Progenitus Elves
2 Affinity
1 Monored Painter
1 Faerie Stompy
1 Salvager's combo
1 Faeries
1 MonoU Painter
1 Dragon Stompy
1 Natural Order
1 Slivers
1 Countertop
1 StifleNought

Total decks: 49
Total decks excluding Tribal decks: 19
So,
61,06% of the decks playing creatures are packing goyf.
83,14% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are packing goyf

This includes decks playing combo-creatures, like Painter, Salvagers, Gamekeepers, Ichorid, Progenitus.

* Excluding 5 Landstill (1 Eternal Dragon) and 1 UW control (2 eternal dragon)

[Peter_Rotten]

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate. :wink:

[GreenOne]

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate. :wink:

Thanks! I added Magus of the Moon, Hippie and Shade.
If you'd like any other creature to be in the list just tell me and I'll add it, it just takes a couple minutes.

[etrigan]

Thanks for this.

Are you using a small program for this, or doing it all manually?

[GreenOne]

Manually.

On the discussion: Goyf is un-arguably the creature of the GP, with the other creatures A LOT less played:
1 Confidant every 2 goyfs
1 Mogg Fanatic every 3 goyfs,
1 Mishra's Factory every 4 goyfs,
1 Mongoose/Trygon Predator every 6 goyfs.

Blue is the most played colour in the format, and people is playing less and less non-goyf beaters, to play more utility creatures that can be categorized IMO:

Card Draw: Dark Confidant #2
Support to Standstill: Mishra #4 and Mutavault #5
Anti-Counterbalance: Trygon Predator #8, Vexing Shusher #10
Anti-Goyf: Sower fo temptation #9

So, basically the played creatures in legacy are either, in order:
- Goyf
- To draw cards
- Goblins
- To beat blue
- To beat Goyf

This makes me quite sad.

[majikal]

Better to have one overpowered creature that everyone can play than to have a creature that one deck can play and no one can answer, IMHO.

[georgjorge]

Things that surprise me...

Thoughtseize isn't among the more popular cards! However, unless I miscounted, there are still 43 decks that play either Duress or Thoughtseize (or both), the decks with Duress being pretty much ANT. So the 1cc black spot discard is still there, just split between two cards (it makes some sense to count it this way since unlike Ponder/Brainstorm, there are very few decks that play both of them).

In the months before the GP, many people said that the three creatures you needed to handle were Goyf, Tombstalker, and Dreadnought. But here 'Stalker and 'Nought show up in very small numbers only, in only 8 out of 132 decks, so maybe you don't have to tailor the removal you play to them. There were more Trygons and Sowers around than those two !

I'd count Mutavault and Factories as one (very few decks play both), which would make 2/2 manlands the third most played beater after Goyf and Confidant.

And as for Goyf, that number - 83% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are playing Goyfs - says it all.

[GreenOne]

Added Thoughtseize and Duress. Feel free to ask for other cards.

[GreenOne]

Added Dark Ritual and LED.

Evidently combo is not overpowered, even with the new AN tool OR is really underplayed OR the meta sucked for it. There's 1 Dark Ritual every 6 Force of Wills, and not every deck running dark ritual comboes where every deck packing force well.. counters.

The dominance of blue aggrocontrol is subtle but present. I mean, every counterbalance deck has a beautiful combo matchup, a quite good aggro matchup (due to Goyf and Counterbalance), and a fair matchup against control.
Where's the bad matchups? I can see only really good ones and fair ones.

[Skeggi]

Feel free to ask for other cards.
Any Chub Toads?

[georgjorge]

I think the dominance of blue aggro-control is best shown by this: The most played cards don't represent different succesful deck types that fight against each other...they all make up one deck/archetype ! Witness:

4 Ponder
4 Brainstorm
4 Sensei's Top

4 Counterbalance
4 Force of Will
3 Daze
3 Thoughtseize
3 Spell Snare

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant

4 Swords to Plowshares

19 lands

...a rather straightforward 4c build, succesfully incorporating 11 out of the 13 most popular cards in the format in one deck (probably not playing Wasteland though).

[GreenOne]

Any Chub Toads?

Oh, you missed it:


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[Finn]

Yep. 83% sounds about right to me. Good work, Georgjorge. Tarmos are a virus. I would like to add that the blue aggro-control decks (except Merfolk which makes a point not to splash) are pretty much all Tarmo decks with the other popular creatures taking turns from one deck to another.

No Tarmo=no dominating blue aggro-control environment

[Nightmare]

Total decks excluding Tribal decks: 19
83,14% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are packing goyf
* Excluding 5 Landstill (1 Eternal Dragon) and 1 UW control (2 eternal dragon)

Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

[Forbiddian]

Yeah, the numbers I think would be a little skewed. A lot of tribal decks (prolly at least 25%) run Goyf. Those Goyfs might not have been subtracted along with the Tribal decks.

We have Goyflins and Golfolks now.


And 61% of decks with creatures run Goyf? I'm really surprised. What the hell are the other 39% of people doing?

[Volt]

I'm tempted to dust off my old Turbo Pascal skills and write a program to parse these results myself.

[ScatmanX]

And 61% of decks with creatures run Goyf? I'm really surprised. What the hell are the other 39% of people doing?

They´re playing goblins. =]

[from Cairo]

/facepalm this whole thread.

[chmoddity]

I think the data is useful. It's not conclusive, but it is useful.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

You're assuming that it would normally be reasonable for 80+% of the non-combo, non-tribal decks to play a single given creature. Your strawman is exceptionally fluffy.

[GreenOne]

Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

I also said 61,06% of the decks playing creatures are packing goyf, just to avoid that.
But this number doesn't give an exact feeling of how much tarmogoyf is dominant in the metagame. I would not say that a deck with 1-2 Eternal Dragon as only creatures is a deck that plans on going beating. Same thing with a deck with 4 Painters or Salvagers+Gamekeepers. It's not a great manipulation when you offer both the percentage, and anyway, it's quite true that if you exclude decks that can't take advantage from goyf (like Ichorid, Gamekeeper, etc) and some tribal decks (not every, but some) then almost 100% of the decks that beat face are splashing green for Goyf.

[Nightmare]

I'm not assuming anything, Jack, and it would be great if you'd stop arguing with people (me) who have no agenda on the Tarmogoyf issue. I don't care about him at all. As long as he exists in the format, I will play him, as he is the best available creature. If he is somehow banned, I will find another card to play instead. Such is the benefit of being emotionally detached from deckbuilding.

I don't really give a shit, honestly, whether there were 100 or 1000 goyfs at GP Chicago. I just don't like people misrepresenting their statistics - which is what Green One was doing, for certain.

If you want to know what kind of presence the card had at the event, then consider it along with ALL the other cards, in ALL the other decks - not just the ones that make your case for you.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Providing context is misrepresentation?

Ur dum.

[Nightmare]

Providing context is misrepresentation?

Ur dum.

Providing context is not the same as selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results you're looking for.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

So if I said, "1% of America's population is in jails. 11% of young black men are in jail.", I would be selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results I'm looking for, which is the number of young black men in jail versus the overall figure, for instance.

And there would be no valid conclusions or data that could be drawn from this selective discrimination of data.

[Nightmare]

So if I said, "1% of America's population is in jails. 11% of young black men are in jail.", I would be selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results I'm looking for, which is the number of young black men in jail versus the overall figure, for instance.

And there would be no valid conclusions or data that could be drawn from this selective discrimination of data.Well, certainly there is data that could be drawn. But you'd be lying if you were to say that those statistics aren't chosen to be leading.

What percentage of the jail population is black? What percentage of non-black males are in jail? What is the age defined as "Young?" These are as important in providing context as any of the information you've provided, but you've chosen to exclude it in order to invoke the idea that there is a disproportionately larger amount of black men in jail than the average populus. That may be true, but we certainly can't tell by your statistics alone - unless we take it at face value, which is exactly what you're hoping we do.

Besides, your example isn't what Green One did. It would be like saying "11% of young black males are in jail - if you don't count the ones in college, or the ones with full-time jobs."

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

I may not agree with what you say, sir, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

[Nightmare]

Sometimes I write out posts that are funny in my head, laugh at them, and then delete them because it's better that way.

This was one of those times.

[GreenOne]

Well, I wrote
- the number of decks playing goyf,
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures and not being tribal.

I do believe people can read statistic on their own. The 3rd point statistic is obviously biased (is that the correct term?) if presented on its own, that's why I wrote #1 and #2 too. Obviously with that statistic I wanted to communicate something, and I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.

[Forbiddian]

Well, I wrote
- the number of decks playing goyf,
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures and not being tribal.

I do believe people can read statistic on their own. The 3rd point statistic is obviously biased (is that the correct term?) if presented on its own, that's why I wrote #1 and #2 too. Obviously with that statistic I wanted to communicate something, and I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.

I thought it was very clear. Also your source is easy to find, so anybody could look through and verify or think of contradictory data points to look up. I think Nightmare just didn't read your post and/or think.

Obviously every presented datum has an agenda. It either supports or refutes an idea. If you blame people for digging out data that support their ideas, you're really dumb. Try refuting the data instead of strawman.



It seems to me decks that have no business playing G at all crop up all over with Tarmogoyfs, and that's the general point.

I think a more telling data point might be, "What percentage of decks with fewer than 8 green cards are playing Tarmogoyf?" A similar line could be repeated for Force of Will, Brainstorm, and Daze, or even all the way down to Swords, Thoughtseize, etc which might be more "fair" since they're non-U. I think there would be an extremely trace number of decks splashing any extra colors for any cards other than Tarmogoyf (which I expect a lot of people would splash for).

This really narrows the Goyf numbers down to "The decks that have no business running G, but are better because of Tarmogoyf."

Those data could be coupled with, "What percentage of Tarmogoyf decks have less than 8 green cards?" and "What percentage of decks with any green but fewer than 8 green spells have Tarmogoyf?"

[AngryTroll]

...
I think there would be an extremely trace number of decks splashing any extra colors for any cards other than Tarmogoyf (which I expect a lot of people would splash for).

...

Those data could be coupled with, "What percentage of Tarmogoyf decks have less than 8 green cards?" and "What percentage of decks with any green but fewer than 8 green spells have Tarmogoyf?"

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

[ScatmanX]

Yet, I´d like to see the statisc he proposed, onde Goyf see a "little" bit more play than Plowshers...

[Volt]

You didn't do or say anything wrong, GreenOne. Carry on.

[Volt]

Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?"

And the answer is often "No."


Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

And the answer is always "Yes."

There were 8 Swords to Plowshares in the GP Chicago Top 8. There were 24 Tarmogoyfs.

[AngryTroll]

A startling confirmation that threats are better than answers. That's no surprise to anyone.

[Forbiddian]

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

That's exactly the point of also doing Swords to Plowshares. Of course I don't know how the numbers will turn out. That's the whole point of it being evidence and that erases all chance that it'll be a "biased" statistic. I just have a hypothesis, which we can test by looking at data. I'd be happy to look through, but I didn't parse the data (I assume GreenOne does or has too much time on his hands).

If Tarmogoyf numbers dwarf Swords numbers, it's really strong evidence that Tgoyf is commonly splashed and is becoming ridiculous, since Swords is probably the second most-splashed-for card. If Swords numbers are comparable, then I'm wrong in my hypothesis and I learned something from it.


And I would find data that, say, 50% (or some other high value similar to Tarmogoyf's) of decks with fewer than 8 White Cards ran StoP anyway *extremely* convincing that Swords is too powerful/easily splashable.

I don't think those data exist, but I guess we'll find out.

I think that maybe, "Of decks running Swords to Plowshares, N% run fewer than 8 white cards" and "Of decks running Tarmogoyf, N% run fewer than 8 green cards" might have somewhat similar values of N, since Swords is often very commonly splashed and there's not a ton of other good white cards.

But that's not the main line of thinking from the data parse. And if you can't figure out how those are questions are worlds apart, PM me and I'll try to explain it to you, but I don't want to clog up the thread with more explanations.

[AngryTroll]

Thanks again, GreenOne, good work so far; no complaints here. Nightmare's right, but you presented the relevant data.



Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90

Swords to Plowshares
Number of decks playing it: 34
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 + 1x1 = 132
Average per deck playing it: 3,88
Average per deck: 1


Sure, about twice as many Goyfs as Swords. More people played Goyfs than Counterbalances, too, because:


A startling confirmation that threats are better than answers. That's no surprise to anyone.

Sure, Goyf is a lot more...something...than Swords; I'm not arguing that Swords should be banned or unbanned or isn't fun or whatever. I'm just saying that people splashing a weaker color for one card isn't new.

[AngryTroll]

.

[quicksilver]

Do they have all the deck lists by chance? I would love to see cards ratio's between day 1 and day 2. Like day one 10% of the decks were playing extirpate and day 2 2% were. Could help show what cards do not pull their weight and are overrated and also which cards do pull their weight and are actually good.

[Forbiddian]

Yeah, I was looking all over for those and couldn't find them. :-(.

[Volt]

I'm just saying that people splashing a weaker color for one card isn't new.

Obvious is obvious. Thx.

[FoolofaTook]

But by the same argument, Swords to Plowshares is far too good. How many white cards does Thresh play? 4 Swords, maybe an ORing or two, and occasionally a Mystic Enforcer pops up? Dreadstill splashes white on occasion for just a few white cards. Basically every deck in the format has at least considered the question, "Would this deck be better with a few white land and Swords to Plowshares?" Now decks are asking the same thing about Goyf.

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

Vindicate is just a little bit less good than Swords to Plowshares and then only because it dictates a second color in your scheme and comes down a bit later in the game state. For that significant handicap you also get to remove permanents other than creatures also.

Oblivion Ring may actually be better than either of them because it also allows you to remove any permanent from play however it doesn't require a black splash in the deck and is therefore a slightly more reliable solution than Vindicate.

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

[AngryTroll]

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

...

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

Oooh, is that how it works. I am, in fact, familiar with the card. I was just pointing out that just because decks splash a color for one card doesn't mean that card is overpowered (see, for example, Swords).

When Archetypes splash an aggro creature because it is too good not to run, then there may be a problem (See, for example, Landstill, ITF).

[Volt]

I was just pointing out that just because decks splash a color for one card doesn't mean that card is overpowered (see, for example, Swords)

That's debatable. Everything is relative. Swords is the best analogy you can come up with, but we've already established that the decks splashing green for goyf greatly outnumber the decks splashing white for StoP. Your response to that seems to be "Of course. Goyf is a threat, and threats are better than answers." Well, yeah... Thanks for proving our point.


When Archetypes splash an aggro creature because it is too good not to run, then there may be a problem (See, for example, Landstill, ITF).

*scratches head* :confused: Which side are you on again?

[from Cairo]

I think he's presenting different view points, or a conflicting dialogue. One doesn't have to pick sides. Tarmogoyf clearly has made a huge impact on Legacy, whether it's ban-worthy or sucks the fun from the format is debatable.

I don't understand why like 16 threads in the past month have turned into "ZoMg BANN Tarmogoyf vs. Tarmogoyf is not OP".

None of us have any say in it regardless so debating it isn't going to effect the outcome anyway. And the 1 thread seems like more than enough to be honest. I seriously hardly want to bother reading anything in the Format Discussion section of the boards cause its the same arguement with the same people regardless of what the initial topic is, it might as well be "What are your feelings on Tarmogoyf".

[raharu]

Swords to Plowshares isn't all *that* good. It's the best creature removal, however that's all it is. Having it in your opening hand can be amazingly good or can kill you depending on what your opponent is doing and what he is holding. It's main strength is that it costs just 1 mana and is cast at instant speed. It's main weakness is that it only handles a single creature, although that moment may be the difference between winning and losing.

Vindicate is just a little bit less good than Swords to Plowshares and then only because it dictates a second color in your scheme and comes down a bit later in the game state. For that significant handicap you also get to remove permanents other than creatures also.

Oblivion Ring may actually be better than either of them because it also allows you to remove any permanent from play however it doesn't require a black splash in the deck and is therefore a slightly more reliable solution than Vindicate.

There are competitive decks that choose not to run Swords to Plowshares even though they run the color, Uw Dreadstill being the obvious example.

lol

Back on topic, the parable that threats are better than answers keeps recurring. This makes no sense, because when you take a look at the Top Eight data from the GP, the Decklists and card information gathered from said tournament, and the LMF, all those decks and cards are control decks and composed of answers (barring Tarmogoyf. Just to mention). So... are threats really better than answers, or does a deck entirely composed of answers beat a single threat, which just happens to be the most efficient in the game and the only one worth playing.

Just a few thoughts. I know what my next deck is going to look like, though.

[memnarch]

Thanks Green One and everyone that put work into this thread. That creature list isn't super surprising because I have seen those creatures showing up more in the meta. But it is a fairly recent change. Considering hyppie dies to trygon and are also still strong and at the top of the list. Infact I still think hyppie > trygon but its close. tyrgon also kills hyppie. But against control and combo and really everything hyppie is relevent. But people are using ALOT of new creatures from the new sets Sower of Temptation is actually the one surprise because I haven't seen it that much. But honestly I think shackles is waay better if you have the mana base. I'm a little peeved that hyppie is last on the list :(