Counterbalance v.s K-Grip

[Nemavera]

Following scenario:

1. You start, play a land and drop a Sensei's Divining Top.
2. Your opponent plays a land.
3. You play a land and a Counterbalance. In response to your Counterbalance your opponent plays a Mystical Tutor and searches for his Krosan Grip; you can assume now, that he's playing Stormcombo
4. Your opponent drops his second land.
5. You play a Brainstorm, draw 3 cards and you now keep a single card in your hand with converted manacosts 3. You put back two cards, the one that is now on top, is the one that costs 3.
6. Your opponent drops his third land and passes the turn.
7. You untap and look at the top three cards during you upkeep. The three cards you see show still one one card with converted manacosts 3.

Where do you place the card with cc3 and why?

[Finn]

Amigo, you have found the conundrum so many players have also discovered. IMO, what you really do NOT want to do is allow that 3cc card get into your hand. So it does not go on top. Now that gives the opponent an opportunity to take out Counterbalance before you draw. But if he does not go for it right then, you will never have the chance to do anything about it if you left the 3cc on top. And you will be faced with this issue every turn while he is holding Grip.

The lesson here is really on the other side. Grip before the opponent's draw step if he spun the top that turn. For me, personally, I would wait an extra turn before using the Grip just in case the opponent got frisky and left the 3cc on top.

[DrJones]

Are you playing paper magic, where the opponent can just track which card was on the top of your library while you look at them and put them on any order?

[Nightmare]

You've done a fairly good job describing the situation prior to the Brainstorm, but:

What is the 3cc card?
Do you have Force of Will in hand?
Daze? Stifle?
What other Gas do you have - threats?
Are you playing against TES or ANT?
Are you playing Wastelands? Which lands did he play?
Are you running Black? Could you possibly Thoughtseize?

All of these questions are relevant. If you have multiple ways to counter his attempts to go off, you may not be concerned with the CB being gripped - especially if there is either another CB in your hand/the top 3, or if you really want the 3cc card - if it's Arcane Lab, for example (while we know it's a niche card, you really haven't fully described the situation). We can assume it's game 2 or 3, since they boarded in Grip. Did you win game 1?

I assume you have Force of Will, or at least Daze, since you ran out Top on turn 1. You wouldn't blindly allow them the possibility of the turn 1 win on the draw with no disruption unless its game two and you won game 1.

[FoolofaTook]

There's no clear-cut right play in the situation you described. It's a pure guessing game, with both players having hidden risks. Your opponent has less information about the card state than you do. He doesn't know that you have a 3cc spell in the top 3 however you do know that he has Krosan Grip waiting to go.

You however don't know whether or not he's preparing to go off or just tutored in response to the Counterbalance because he wasn't going to be able to get the tutor off successfully once CounterTop was in play.

I think the right risk to take in that situation is to leave the 3cc on top and pass priority in your upkeep. The moment that your opponent is going to have the greatest amount of control is right then. If you didn't have a 3cc in your hand or in the top 3 at the time that he tutored for grip then the odds are good that you don't have one now. The longer he waits the more likely a 3cc will float to the top for you, making his play less productive.

[keys]

I guess it depends how smart your opponent is.

If he's smart enough to use Grip in your upkeep after you top, and he absolutely has to win his next turn, then I suppose I might put it on top and risk drawing it. In every other case, the middle.

It's a crap shoot.

[emidln]

I guess it depends how smart your opponent is.

If he's smart enough to use Grip in your upkeep after you top, and he absolutely has to win his next turn, then I suppose I might put it on top and risk drawing it. In every other case, the middle.

It's a crap shoot.

He doesn't need to win next turn. I often KGrip counterbalances just so I can safely play setup cantrips and tutors. If they play another CB, you can deal with that with more KGrips or have the chance to combo through it (it isn't hard if you've had several turns of setting up CB-free).

As a combo player, you have to be willing to trade blows with CBs because good players will simply drop the 2nd one if they draw it anyway. If they draw 2 and you don't draw the answer to the second, you might be able to play through it but you probably lose. However, if they draw the second one and play it with you not having blown up the first CB, you've now lost turns in which you could have been preparing for a second CB or potentially winning.

It's also not necessarily a postboard situation if they tutor for KGrip. Many ANT lists splash into green specifically for Krosan Grip because it's better at answering their most feared card (CB) than Wipe Away. Additionally, combo pilots tend to see far more Counterbalances than hate bears in a game ones.

[FoolofaTook]

I guess it depends how smart your opponent is.

If he's smart enough to use Grip in your upkeep after you top, and he absolutely has to win his next turn, then I suppose I might put it on top and risk drawing it. In every other case, the middle.

It's a crap shoot.

On further reflection I just don't see what you gain by moving the 3cc off the top of your deck. When you have Counterbalance in play and you know the opponent has Krosan Grip in hand you have one favored position to get to: a 3cc on top of your deck and him trying to grip Counterbalance.

The part of the equation you have control of is the 3cc on top. You'll never have control of when he attempts to grip Counterbalance, and trying to out think him on that is probably non-productive. In that situation I think you just leave the 3cc there and pass priority and know that you controlled as much of the equation as you could.

If you actively move the 3cc to the middle then you have ceded your ability to control the situation to your opponent and if he took best advantage of the opportunity he acted on the event and reaped the reward.

Maybe the best thing that you could do is to look at the top 3 during upkeep and use a bit of sleight of hand to make it look like you moved a card. The opponent's natural inclination is going to be to grip at that point, both because it's the right thing to do anyway and also because if you actually spent mana during your upkeep the odds favor you moving the card you want to draw to the top.

[Nemavera]

I tried to keep the situation as general as possible, cause I wanted to get a general answer; of course it always depends on what cards you have in hand, which game it is and whether you won game one or not.

Okay, lets go more into detail;

It's game 2 and you lost the first game, that's why you're playing first.

Your opponent is playing NLS and has a U-Sea, a Polluted Delta and a Bloodstained Mire in play.

The 3cc card is a Rhox War Monk; The other two cards are a Qasali Pridemage and an Engineered Explosives
Youre keeping a daze, a stifle and some irrelevant stuff.

How would you proceed in this case?

[Eldariel]

Are you playing paper magic, where the opponent can just track which card was on the top of your library while you look at them and put them on any order?

Why let him? You can shuffle the cards in your hand quickly and then place them in the order of your choosing. Very few people can follow that.

[frogboy]

as soon as there is a correct answer it becomes wrong.

[Skeggi]

How would you proceed in this case?
With Stifle and Daze I'd say you have enough protection against combo for now. You should play RWM and apply some pressure. The 6 life difference it generates each turn is something the NLS player needs to cope with soon. He might expose himself to Daze or Stifle. Provided you have mana for Stifle.

[Elf_Ascetic]

With Stifle and Daze I'd say you have enough protection against combo for now. You should play RWM and apply some pressure. The 6 life difference it generates each turn is something the NLS player needs to cope with soon. He might expose himself to Daze or Stifle. Provided you have mana for Stifle.

NLS really doens't care about 3 life per turn. Storm 20 is easy to reach. Why not apply pressure with the Pridemage, and keep RWM for CB @ 3?

And for the Top/Place debate: As soon as there is a "best play", your opponent should do the other play, so it therefore is not the best play anymore. It's the worst. You have to do what you think your opponent will do, and that can only be done at the table, with the guy in front of you. Of course, this leads to the conclusion that this topic is completely useless.

[Watcher487]

And for the Top/Place debate: As soon as there is a "best play", your opponent should do the other play, so it therefore is not the best play anymore. It's the worst. You have to do what you think your opponent will do, and that can only be done at the table, with the guy in front of you. Of course, this leads to the conclusion that this topic is completely useless.

QFT.

Really what would you expect out of this topic in the first place? Even if there was something close to definitive that comes from this, would you actually expect it to happen in a tournement? I would have probably tossed the 3cc card on the bottom off the Brainstorm but really there isn't a reason why any of this should make you change your playstyle differently. You don't know if your opponent will take bait or not. Obviously Topping durring your upkeep shows you have a 3cc in your top 3.

[Skeggi]

NLS really doens't care about 3 life per turn. Storm 20 is easy to reach.
That's not always the case. When the NLS player is at lower life, there's a big risk of going off via Ad Nauseaum. Going via Ill-Gotten Gains is often preferred, however, it's usually harder to reach enough storm via Ill-Gotten Gains than via Ad Nauseaum. At least, that's my experience with it, from both sides of the table.


Why not apply pressure with the Pridemage, and keep RWM for CB @ 3?
That's a better idea indeed. Forgot about the Pridemage there, I was more focussed on RWM and Explosives.

[citanul]

I think you should try to outplay your opponent, not by placing your card in a certain place but telegraphing it is in that place. Being above your opponent in the mental game.

If you place your Grip in 2nd place you should clearly indicate that you want to draw. Say something like "pass priority" or "draw?". This will give a clear opportunity for your opponent to react. By giving him this extra chance of using the Grip he should assume that you have the Grip on top and waits for after your draw. An added effect could be is after he sais oke asking the judge if you can rearrange the cards before you actually draw. While the answer is obvious, it'll make your opponent think that the 3cc spell is there for sure. He should Grip after your draw after this act, making you counter it.

If you place the card on the top you can try something similar. Do not give your opponent the extra chance, say nothing, just go to your draw step fast and draw the card face down on the table (I always draw like this in case your opponent stops you). He should get the feeling that you want to draw quickly and that the 2nd card was the 3cc card. He still has the option to stop you, reverse everythign and Grip, running into the 3cc card.

I find the first act to be more convincing towards the opponent and therefor putting it in the 2nd spot is better.

It also depends on the skill of your opponent. If he is really bad he'll just Grip before you draw without much thought. If he's an average skilled player who can think a bit you should place it 2nd. The logic behind this is that he will think that you placed it first to screw him over, that you underestimated him. The aformentioned tricks should also work against him/her. It will be almost impossible to trick a very good player. If you are not better or good at mindgames I'd just place it 1st and pray.

[Skeggi]

It also depends on the skill of your opponent. If he is really bad he'll just Grip before you draw without much thought. If he's an average skilled player who can think a bit you should place it 2nd.

This could turn into a mindfuck on a mindfuck on a mindfuck (My opponent knows I know he has a Grip. I know he knows that I have a 3cmc card here somewhere. But does he know that I know? And if he does, does he know that I know that he knows?). I suggest you just make a plan and know what you should do in any scenario. All this mindfucking doesn't lead to consistent outcomes and comes to the border of cheating.

Edit: had to make something clear to citanul, as I didn't say it actually was cheating.

[citanul]

There's no cheating in asking a judge a ruling or asking if you can draw your card? There might be if you draw your card without giving the chance to your opponent to react in your upkeep, hence the draw face down on table with pause but that's a habit anyway.

And I believe that keeping it in 2nd place would be best. I just illustrated it with the examples why I thought it was the best option for me.

[emidln]

As far as the mind game goes, against a better player you're probably better off faking a quick play for the draw with the KGrip on top. You want to signal that you need to draw a card (thus letting your opp think you have the 3cc spell in the middle and want to draw to get it on top). Better players will immediately stop you and try to KGrip. The best way to pull this off is if you tap your library to indicate the draw step, then draw your card face down and drag it face down across the table so if your opponent tries to back you up you are still relatively in the clear. Of course, you need to estimate your opponent's competence and attentiveness correctly to pull this off, but it's a pretty effective bluff.

Edit: out of curiosity, can a judge tell me how close this is walking the line of cheating? Does knocking the top of your deck each time before you draw signal passing priority enough to satisfy the rules?


That's not always the case. When the NLS player is at lower life, there's a big risk of going off via Ad Nauseaum. Going via Ill-Gotten Gains is often preferred, however, it's usually harder to reach enough storm via Ill-Gotten Gains than via Ad Nauseaum. At least, that's my experience with it, from both sides of the table.

NLS, unlike pretty much any other storm deck in Legacy has a third option in Doomsday (incidentally its the cheapest of the two easy to find win conditions (the other being Infernal Tutor->IGG)). It can reach absurd storm counts at low life totals without the benefit of IGG, Ad Nauseam, of even SDT. Many of its piles for 1-3 additional mana (4-6 mana total for the turn) generate between 10 and 16 lifeloss by themselves, not counting Doomsday, acceleration, protection, or enemy spells played.

[citanul]

As far as the mind game goes, against a better player you're probably better off faking a quick play for the draw with the KGrip on top. You want to signal that you need to draw a card (thus letting your opp think you have the 3cc spell in the middle and want to draw to get it on top). Better players will immediately stop you and try to KGrip. The best way to pull this off is if you tap your library to indicate the draw step, then draw your card face down and drag it face down across the table so if your opponent tries to back you up you are still relatively in the clear. Of course, you need to estimate your opponent's competence and attentiveness correctly to pull this off, but it's a pretty effective bluff.


I agree with this only if you use that mindgame(the same that I posted). If not, the better player won't stop you during your upkeep and he won't use his Grip at that point.

[emidln]

I agree with this only if you use that mindgame(the same that I posted). If not, the better player won't stop you during your upkeep and he won't use his Grip at that point.

The play actually works in all facets of the game with with regard to timing plays. Switching speeds to slow play with obvious priority passing (as if you are certain your opponent is about to ruin your game and you've accepted your fate) or to quick play (as to make your opponent think you don't want them to do something) tend to be signals that better players pick up and you can take advantage of them. Of course, some people won't let their opponents style of play affect them at all (and thus are immune), but the vast majority of legacy players (and even upper-level PTQ players) I've met are easier to play than a guitar.

[citanul]

But in this situation your opponent knows that you know that he has a Krosan Grip. So if he really is good and doesn't underestimate you he should know that you are aware of the Split Second and the ability to cast the Grip prior to the draw. I think that playing a scene where you give him a deliberate time to play the Krosan Grip during your upkeep is better. It is less common and telegraphs much better. Even if the chance of succes that he catches it would be the same, there's still the odd chance that he doesn't. He'll let you draw that card you wanted before he even grasps it and no turning back then. WHile if you gave him the extra time, there's extra time to sink in, extra time for him to realise that you want him to respond and extra time for him to decide not to.

Both plays are viable if your mind trick is skillfull enough but giving him extra time will make more people catch it and play the way you expected.

[FoolofaTook]

As far as the mind game goes, against a better player you're probably better off faking a quick play for the draw with the KGrip on top. You want to signal that you need to draw a card (thus letting your opp think you have the 3cc spell in the middle and want to draw to get it on top). Better players will immediately stop you and try to KGrip. The best way to pull this off is if you tap your library to indicate the draw step, then draw your card face down and drag it face down across the table so if your opponent tries to back you up you are still relatively in the clear. Of course, you need to estimate your opponent's competence and attentiveness correctly to pull this off, but it's a pretty effective bluff.

I'd just untap and say upkeep - top, ok? Then after topping, draw, ok? I'll bet that against most solid players the grip comes down on the second ok.

@everybody arguing the longterm confuse-a-cat option:

On the whole concept of trying to mindfuck your opponent by playing with the placement of the card over a series of turns: against storm combo you won't get that series of turns if you try to do it unless the opponent doesn't have the goods anyway. Against a deck like NLS or ANT or DDFT or TES they're going to go off if they can and they're going to ditch the counterbalance at absolutely the first opportunity so, as emidln points out, they can continue sculpting. In either case they're likely to take their earliest opportunity to grip.

Against a non-combo deck it's fine to mess around with when exactly you're going to expose yourself but against combo the answer is never unless you want to lose.

[Kuma]

http://www.sirlin.net/articles/yomi-layer-3-knowing-the-mind-of-the-opponent.html

/thread

[FoolofaTook]

http://www.sirlin.net/articles/yomi-layer-3-knowing-the-mind-of-the-opponent.html

/thread

This is a 1 in a 1000 games situation: a very early game play in which the opponent is playing storm combo and has signaled clearly that he has a Krosan Grip against your CounterTop in play. Nobody has had time to develop much in the way of other assets and so the decision stands on it's own.

I highly doubt that either player would have had enough experience in that context for a "this is the best play so I should do that instead to try to outwit my opponent" type of play. Even if one of the players did have that kind of experience his best play could easily be foiled by the other player's choice - even if it was not the best play. In that context you stay strong and control what you can.

[Guy I Don't Know]

Well, if the person is not as good of a player i read him and figure out what he is going to do (usually EOT in my experience) But if he is better than you then i would find a random way to figure out which way you are going to go. I like choosing odd sum casting cost of top three cards is on top and even casting cost second from the top.

[FoolofaTook]

Well, if the person is not as good of a player i read him and figure out what he is going to do (usually EOT in my experience) But if he is better than you then i would find a random way to figure out which way you are going to go. I like choosing odd sum casting cost of top three cards is on top and even casting cost second from the top.

The thing about the scenario posed that is hard is that the opponent did not go tutor for the grip on his own. He did it under the pressure of a Counterbalance landing, so you really don't know whether or not he's going to use it right away. If he tutored for the grip under other circumstances then there's a presumption that he went to get it to use it. In this scenario you just don't know.

Maybe you're right. Maybe the best play is to be somewhat random. It would just kill me though to know that I had the answer on top of my deck and I chose to put it somewhere else and lost Counterbalance as a result.