Questions about SCG $5K

[Smmenen]

So, here's the deal: I have all 147 SCG $5K lists from Philly.

I intend to do an analysis like this: http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14982

But, this time, SCG gave me the matchup tables for each round, so I can also figure out what the total match records were by archetype against each other archetype.

I have unparalled access to data for a major Legacy tournament. I have other questions I want to answer:

1) How many Goyfs were played?

2) How many Force of Will were played?

3) What Zendikar cards saw play, and in what quantities?

4) Were any recently unbanned cards played? If so, which ones, in which quantities, and how did they do?

But I also wanted to throw open the door for you to pose questions.

Ask and I will do my best to answer them in my article next week!

[Hanni]

I'm curious about Landstill.

Also, how many off-the-wall decks, or off-the-wall tweaks to existing highly played decks, were there, and how well did they do?

[Smmenen]

could you be a *little* more specific?

I must say: the black Sorin Markov deck that David Gearheart played seemed *quite* off the wall.

Is that an established archetype?

[Hanni]

Can't really be specific. I'm assuming the majority of the decks played are established Tier 1 and Tier 2 archetypes. Among the decks played, how many decks either don't fall into those categories, or were a Tier 1 or Tier 2 deck with radically added/changed stuff.

This isn't going to be seen, but for an example of what I mean:

Counterbalance in the maindeck of Landstill.
Elspeth in the maindeck of UGw (or rather UWg) Countertop.

Those are obviously just examples, since those are deck changes I've tossed around personally, but that's the sort of off-the-wall stuff I'm talking about.

As far as what David played, yes I'd say that's very off-the-wall, and I'm almost positive that it's not an established deck, or at least I've yet to see it.

[Aggro_zombies]

I'd be interested in the empirical data for common matchups:

Zoo versus Merfolk, Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.
Merfolk versus Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.

Basically, knowing how the following did against each other:

Zoo
Merfolk
Counter-Top (sorting by splash color, perhaps? Black stands out because of Bob)
Canadian Thresh
Landstill
"Fast" combo (TES, Belcher, etc.)
"Slow" combo (Hexmage, ANT, Hulk Entomb)
Goblins

Out of the Counterbalance decks, what were the win packages that did the best? Obviously, Progenitus got to the Top 8, but was that a fluke or did they do better across the board than versions without? Did black for Bob do better on average than white for Pridemage and RWM?

I like your idea of looking at the effects of the unbannings and non-fetch Zendikar cards, since I'm interested in that sort of thing for trade purposes.

Any particularly funky but well-performing decks always deserve a mention.

[Mark Sun]

Agree with Hanni/aggro. I am curious about how Landstill...

1) Appeared in numbers; how many people played a traditional shell/list? Oh, and I mean UWx (b or nothing), not 4c.
1b) Also, as Hanni said, were there any rarities in the MD/SB?

2) Was matched up? Did they see favorable matchups all day, or Zoo, Merfolk, rinse and repeat? :wink:

3) Fared against some of the newer decks popping up, like Dark Depths/Hexmage, etc. Were there a lot of Entomb variants in this tournament? All I see is the T16 lists at the moment. (I ask this in hope of gauging how much GY hate I need for the Meandeck... hehe).


Stuff like that. I can't see the SCG article... so I guess I'll wait the 90 days after it comes out anyways.

[MMogg]

I'm actually curious about specific card choices in some decks and how those decks performed overall. For example:


Zoo: Woolly Thoctar vs. Knight of the Reliquary
Goblins: Warren Instigator, how many versus win ratio (i.e. did 4 ofs win more than 3 ofs)
Also, what type of Tendrils deck did best?


Those are my top three wonders.

[Eldariel]

Wow, sounds like a lot of work you've cut out for yourself. Well, glad it's someone capable doing this; otherwise it would take forever.


But yeah, I'd second most of what Aggro_zombies said; match-up data seems to be the most interesting thing that we still have insufficient tournament information on (everyone has done their own testing, but due to a billion factors, these results vary).

And yeah, the biggest variations and if possible, how these variations did compared to the more established lists (e.g. how well Warren Instigator-packing Goblins did vs. Zendikarless Goblins and how well the heavily creature-based Zoo-lists did vs. Burn-heavy lists; also, the role of Ports in Goblins would be interesting to observe).

[Anusien]

Benjamin Peebles-Mundy has a set of scripts that performs a similar set of analysis on data posted on the Wizards of the Coast website. If you get in touch me with through IM or e-mail, I'll dig up the analysis he did or put you in contact with him.

[Cthuloo]

I'm curious about Landstill.


It will be nice to know the winning % of landstill for each round. Since it's a complex and tiring deck to play, I would expect it to fall down during the tourney. It will give a good picture about playing landstill in a big tournament, if it's still a good choice or the deck will drain all your mental energies too fast.

Also, as Aggro_Zombies already suggested, I think it will be interesting to have empirical data about the Tier 1 matchups.

[Jeff Kruchkow]

im with Hanni, anything radically new (that markov deck etc.) would be fun to see. That and perhaps, within in archtype, what % of deck played each card. For example, in the merfolk deck, what percent splashed white, or how many had stifle.

[Elf_Ascetic]

A very broad, but interesting analysis is the mean end points per archetype, with standard error. Those numbers can tell:

- What archetype does overall the best
- What archetype is the most consistent.

[claudio.r]

Is there any place where we can find any information the black Sorin deck that David played (like decklist and so on) ????

[Nihil Credo]

I'd like to know what types and amounts of mana-base hate were played. It would be nice if you could evaluate and publish the presence of:

- Stifle / Wasteland
- Sinkhole / Smallpox / Vindicate / other unconditional "destroy any one land"
- Recurring Wasteland/Ghost Quarter (Loam/Crucible)
- Blood Moon
- Back to Basics
- Armageddon
- etc.

Likewise, I'd like to know how much hate there was for low-cc cards. That means COUNTing how many decks featured:

- Counterbalance
- Chalice of the Void
- Trinisphere
- Engineered Explosives / Powder Keg
- Pernicious Deed

[pippo84]

Where can I find David Gearheart's list with Sorin Markov?

[Bluemagex2517]

I would like to know how much graveyard hate there was. It's a personal question though, was I right about my meta-game call, or just super lucky?

[quicksilver]

Where can I find David Gearheart's list with Sorin Markov?

Just pm him (Deep6er).





I really would love to see some breakdown. If you were to post all the lists somewhere in a well formatted fashion, I would love to write some programs to run them through and pull out some statistics. Not sure exactly how the algorithms would go but there are some obscure statistics I would love to pull out to see what they look like. Also I could easily calculate some of the ones you had in your opening post for you if you were to type up the lists.

[Smmenen]

Benjamin Peebles-Mundy has a set of scripts that performs a similar set of analysis on data posted on the Wizards of the Coast website. If you get in touch me with through IM or e-mail, I'll dig up the analysis he did or put you in contact with him.

What would those do? The decklists I have are the decklists the players filled out. I don't intend on typing up every decklist.

Do you think that this script would be helpful?

[Smmenen]

I'd be interested in the empirical data for common matchups:

Zoo versus Merfolk, Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.
Merfolk versus Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.

Basically, knowing how the following did against each other:

Zoo
Merfolk
Counter-Top (sorting by splash color, perhaps? Black stands out because of Bob)
Canadian Thresh
Landstill
"Fast" combo (TES, Belcher, etc.)
"Slow" combo (Hexmage, ANT, Hulk Entomb)
Goblins

Out of the Counterbalance decks, what were the win packages that did the best? Obviously, Progenitus got to the Top 8, but was that a fluke or did they do better across the board than versions without? Did black for Bob do better on average than white for Pridemage and RWM?

I like your idea of looking at the effects of the unbannings and non-fetch Zendikar cards, since I'm interested in that sort of thing for trade purposes.

Any particularly funky but well-performing decks always deserve a mention.

I intend to do that.

My plan, as I said in the first post, is to do an analysis like I did in the article linked. Then I will show how each archetype did against each other archetype, in the aggregate.

[Smmenen]

Is there any place where we can find any information the black Sorin deck that David played (like decklist and so on) ????

I'll post it -- and any other interesting decks -- in the article itself.

[Smmenen]

A very broad, but interesting analysis is the mean end points per archetype, with standard error. Those numbers can tell:

- What archetype does overall the best
- What archetype is the most consistent.

Read the first post. You'll see that I linked to an article where I said I intend to replicate that analysis.

[MattH]

If there is any way for you to tell, I would like to know what correlation exists between playing first and game win percentage. Especially by archetype.

[Smmenen]

i won't have that information

[Mark Sun]

If there is any way for you to tell, I would like to know what correlation exists between playing first and game win percentage. Especially by archetype.
i won't have that information

It'd be pretty tedious, and at this point, probably meaningless information. Each deck's success is a function of multiple variables, such as its pilot, its list (any oddities, etc, as well as SB'ing itself), its matchup, and others. Hell, even those variables are going to be affected by other factors. It's probably not practical for any of us to analyze such data, nor take anything from it.

[Happy Gilmore]

its wierd because there are some draws like in the zoo mirror where if you are going second with the right hand you really can't lose. That is also true vise versa to some extent. Some matchups just come down to Gofy advantage. Whoever sticks more goyfs wins.

[slylie]

Here is the decklist for those without premium access .. I'm also interested in how a player of his caliber would choose this deck.

"Markov Control"

Maindeck:

s
4 Bosium Strip

Instants
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Dark Ritual
2 Skeletal Scrying
2 Tendrils Of Corruption

Planeswalkers
3 Sorin Markov


Sorceries
4 Beseech The Queen
4 Damnation
4 Hymn To Tourach
4 Innocent Blood
1 Mutilate
1 Tendrils Of Agony

Basic Lands
23 Swamp
Sideboard:

3 Helm Of Obedience
4 Engineered Plague
4 Leyline Of The Void
4 Duress

[deadlock]

Looks quite unconvetional, i like it..
Tendrils of Corruption looks weak though.

[Jedi Knight]

I actually realy like this list!!!!Trying to do something different is always "kick ass"in my BOOK!

[Smmenen]

I'd be interested in the empirical data for common matchups:

Zoo versus Merfolk, Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.
Merfolk versus Countertop, Canadian Thresh, etc.


It took me a while, but I put together an excel spreadsheet that has all of this information.

As a teaser, Zoo went 6-0 against Merfolk.