[Premium Article] Reassembling Countertop to Beat the Metagame

[Smmenen]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/18570_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Reassembling_CounterTop_To_Beat_the_Metagame.html

Monday, January 4th - With yesterday’s StarCityGames.com Legacy Open in Los Angeles fresh on our minds, Stephen Menendian takes a fresh look at the CounterTop archetype for Legacy play. Using his excellent Five-Step construction process, he rebuilds the deck for 2010, and runs it through a local tournament to a promising result…

[SilverGreen]

Which's the current policy here regarding premium decklists? I'm still able to post them?

I'm curious about your five-step method. There's some interesting stuff to read after breakfast. ^^

[Nidd]

Okay, enough is enough. I'll go and sign up for a Premium Membership.


...And it's all your fault!

[Ebinsugewa]

Okay, enough is enough. I'll go and sign up for a Premium Membership.

...And it's all your fault!

Definitely, need as much quality Legacy content, and hopefully it sells some memberships and we keep getting it.

[yankeedave]

I was curious as to why everyone always has Trygon Predator in these lists. Why does no one play Qasali Pridemage? I would think that the Exalted weighs pretty evenly with Trygon’s evasion. Is it the re-use-ability (new word there!) of Trygon and the fact that it pitches to Force that makes it so attractive?

[mchainmail]

I was curious as to why everyone always has Trygon Predator in these lists. Why does no one play Qasali Pridemage? I would think that the Exalted weighs pretty evenly with Trygon’s evasion. Is it the re-use-ability (new word there!) of Trygon and the fact that it pitches to Force that makes it so attractive?


Trygon is stronger in matchups with a lot of artifacts (stax) and fills in the 3-slot better for counterbalance. Plus, the exalted isn't as relevant when you just path everything.

[Bardo]

Which's the current policy here regarding premium decklists? I'm still able to post them?

Past policy was they're public; new policy (at least with Stephen's articles) is they're not.

[Bardo]

Somewhat preemtively, if anyone is going to whine about premium, please do so on SCG's site, not here.

Thank you.

[Smmenen]

Which's the current policy here regarding premium decklists? I'm still able to post them?

I'm curious about your five-step method. There's some interesting stuff to read after breakfast. ^^

My concern with posting the decklists is that there will be alot of questions that people will have that are already answered in the article. That's what happened last time. But if there is a question that isn't answered in the article, I'm happy to field them.

[frogboy]

My concern with posting the decklists is that there will be alot of questions that people will have that are already answered in the article. That's what happened last time. But if there is a question that isn't answered in the article, I'm happy to field them.

Against Counterbalance lists with Natural Order, how effective is the "Get the Counterbalance lock and go after them with Tarmogoyfs" plan? Because that strategy is pretty much the same that all Counterbalance lists have been using. It's certainly true that you have a ton of removal, but having a ton of Plows isn't that different from having less Plows, more Shackles, and that plan is pretty bad against the "five mana, Hierarch/Dryad Arbor, Natural Order, Force your Force" line.

If your claim is that you are winning the fight over Counterbalance, you're not doing anything differently from other lists, and in fact have less permission to battle with. If your claim is that Tarmogoyf beatdown is too much of a clock for your opponent's to deal with, again, that plan is not news, and both the "lock you" and the "attack you" plans are soft to Progenitus.

In general, I have found Counterspell and mana denial strategies to be the best way to attack the Natural Order plan in the mirror, and I have found Counterbalance and Goyf to be lacking.

[mchainmail]

Against Counterbalance lists with Natural Order, how effective is the "Get the Counterbalance lock and go after them with Tarmogoyfs" plan? Because that strategy is pretty much the same that all Counterbalance lists have been using. It's certainly true that you have a ton of removal, but having a ton of Plows isn't that different from having less Plows, more Shackles, and that plan is pretty bad against the "five mana, Hierarch/Dryad Arbor, Natural Order, Force your Force" line.

If your claim is that you are winning the fight over Counterbalance, you're not doing anything differently from other lists, and in fact have less permission to battle with. If your claim is that Tarmogoyf beatdown is too much of a clock for your opponent's to deal with, again, that plan is not news, and both the "lock you" and the "attack you" plans are soft to Progenitus.

In general, I have found Counterspell and mana denial strategies to be the best way to attack the Natural Order plan in the mirror, and I have found Counterbalance and Goyf to be lacking.

Compared to Matt Ness's top 4 deck at 5kLA (http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=30742) Menendian's list has 4 Ponder making it easier to find Force/swords (and more fetches; looking at a lot of cards is always a good thing.)

[Smmenen]

Against Counterbalance lists with Natural Order, how effective is the "Get the Counterbalance lock and go after them with Tarmogoyfs" plan? Because that strategy is pretty much the same that all Counterbalance lists have been using. It's certainly true that you have a ton of removal, but having a ton of Plows isn't that different from having less Plows, more Shackles, and that plan is pretty bad against the "five mana, Hierarch/Dryad Arbor, Natural Order, Force your Force" line.

If your claim is that you are winning the fight over Counterbalance, you're not doing anything differently from other lists, and in fact have less permission to battle with. If your claim is that Tarmogoyf beatdown is too much of a clock for your opponent's to deal with, again, that plan is not news, and both the "lock you" and the "attack you" plans are soft to Progenitus.



Possibly, but possibly not. It's not that my claim is a single approach, but rather a combination of approaches, depending on the circumstances.

My general approach in the CounterTop match was described in the article: use Plows to keep creatures off hte table. There are two possible approaches. One is the tempo/beatdown, and the second is the control role.

I actually try to assume both roles in the spirit of Zvi's Whos the Beatdown II. I try to play the tempo/beatdown role in the early game, by aggrsesivly removing their creratures, including Noble Hierarch. However, if things are too even, I assume the control role. I use my Goyfs as a wall, and use my slight advantages, such as my two Predators and my numerically superior cantrip/search to set up counter walls for Natural Order. In other words, I will save Forces for their Natural Orders and use Counterbalance to stop everything else, or let everything else resolve, and just Goyfs as walls. IN those situations, STP and Path are vital, since they can keep me parity. If I can stop the natural order when it hits, then I can eventually assume fuller control over the board state.

Post-board, I bring in Submerges and Grip for 3 Geese and a land.





In general, I have found Counterspell and mana denial strategies to be the best way to attack the Natural Order plan in the mirror, and I have found Counterbalance and Goyf to be lacking.

Removing Noble Hierarch quckly actually serves bo0th plans. It's a form of mana denial, and denies them a good sacrificial target for Natural Order. In the meantime, Goyf can deal some real damage, and can win the game if you can stop the first attempt at Natural Order.

[Happy Gilmore]

I'm always a big fan of individuals posting lists which have never been tested in tournament. Really big fan.

There is so much more you could have said about the state of CB but instead you gave us a run down of each card in the deck. What is the same should need no explaination, but what you changed should have been your focus.

What would have been better:


Talk more about how Johton Grunt, and what it does in this metagame. At the vestal tournament in November I discovered just how good he was. The two I had in my board came in quite often. You could have mentioned why it is a more successful answer to goyf, etc.
Why are 7 swords correct? Is targeted removal in the format better now than it used to be?
What are the problems that we as players should be looking at solutions for regarding CB decks? For one thing, CB in no way has issues with agro loam. Counterbalance is a real issue for that deck.
Someone brought up a good point, why no Pridemage? You cant always rely on getting an attack phase with PredatorBasically when people post un-tested or un-tournament proven lists I cant help but be scheptical. If you want to say 3 color is correct do so. If you want to say that more targeted removal is necessary be my guest.

Teach the man to fish, don't give him the fish.

I can see what you were trying to address in your list and I can say it is definitly an interesting take that I will look into. But if I wasn't already so active on the Legacy scene I wouldn't really understand why you did the things you did.

[Smmenen]

I'm always a big fan of individuals posting lists which have never been tested in tournament. Really big fan.

.

Me too, but this is not one of them. If you read the article, you'd see I ran this i a tournament, and gave my tournament report.

[Zilla]

If you read the article, you'd see I ran this in a tournament, and gave my tournament report.
http://www.tdtffc.com/misc/ohsnap.jpg

[Malakai]

I'm going to assume the step-by-step deck creation method is something used by Team Meandeck at large, as HiVal used it here: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/18585_Legacys_Allure_Building_a_Metagamed_Enchantress_List.html (Hopefully that doesn't give away too much of your premium article.)

At any rate, it's nice you did your homework this time. A good article all around. I don't really understand Jotun Grunt as a 1-of, though. You have a lot of searching power, but even then it just seems like the wrong number. It's a great card in the metagame, and I am continually surprised it doesn't see more play, but there's always the problem of how it interacts with Tarmogoyf. Do you really think 1 is the correct maindeck number? Do you think more would be playable if you had, say, Rhox War Monks instead of Mongeese?

The Firespout-to-Path change is one I've been considering for some time, but hadn't really had a chance to test. This was the push I needed to make the switch.

[stacker]

didn't read the article and don't care much for it, but its thread is god damn epic

Please use proper capitalization and punctuation in your posts in the future. They are required on these boards. Thanks in advance. Also this is pretty much spam, so let's avoid that too. - zilla

[Eldariel]

Removing Noble Hierarch quckly actually serves bo0th plans. It's a form of mana denial, and denies them a good sacrificial target for Natural Order. In the meantime, Goyf can deal some real damage, and can win the game if you can stop the first attempt at Natural Order.

The mana denial-part certainly only applies to Plows though, given PtE's unfortunate tendency to give opp mana. That's really one of the primary strikes I see against it in the mirror; if you cast it before they hit ~5 mana, they effectively draw a card (since this means they can shuffle a land they draw away with Brainstorm), which seems downright miserable. The list does seem very solid vs. just about any other strategy though. I think this was illustrated in your report with the NO Countertop being your only loss (though I do imagine the Mono-White coulda beat you had he just stuck to his guns and focused on winning with Sacred Mesa); you give up percentages in the mirror for other match-ups. I guess that comes down to what kind of metagame you expect.

But really, it seems to me like Natural Order acts much like Tinker in Vintage Fish-mirror; both sides can certainly win, but all other things being equal, their ability to eventually plop down a 10/10 pro-yourdeck means you need to win before that happens.

[Smmenen]

didn't read the article and don't care much for it, but its thread is god damn epic

Yeah, trying to put some Pros in their place. I don't know who Sti is, and I don't give a damn. I'm a little bit sick of Pro Tour arrogance, particularly how insulting they are to legacy players. The stuff I saw on the SCG chat this past weekend made me sick.

[Smmenen]

I'm going to assume the step-by-step deck creation method is something used by Team Meandeck at large, as HiVal used it here: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/18585_Legacys_Allure_Building_a_Metagamed_Enchantress_List.html (Hopefully that doesn't give away too much of your premium article.)

At any rate, it's nice you did your homework this time. A good article all around. I don't really understand Jotun Grunt as a 1-of, though. You have a lot of searching power, but even then it just seems like the wrong number. It's a great card in the metagame, and I am continually surprised it doesn't see more play, but there's always the problem of how it interacts with Tarmogoyf. Do you really think 1 is the correct maindeck number?


That's a really good question. 2 could be correct, but I'd never play more than 2. I'm just concerned that 2 Grunts are just awful.




Do you think more would be playable if you had, say, Rhox War Monks instead of Mongeese?



Hmm. i don't think that would change my conclusion on that issue.

[Jak]

Yeah, trying to put some Pros in their place. I don't know who Sti is, and I don't give a damn. I'm a little bit sick of Pro Tour arrogance, particularly how insulting they are to legacy players. The stuff I saw on the SCG chat this past weekend made me sick.

Pretty sure he is Stuart Wright.

[Smmenen]

Even worse!

[Shugyosha]

I liked the post from Chapin where he said that a Swords/EE split could be better as his arguements were very clear and concise. There is also Firespout as mentioned.

Splitting removal and having some kind of mass removal is usually better. Even dedicated control decks like Landstill don't play more than 6 Swords/Path because 1:1 removal is just bridgeing the gap until cards to control the game are drawn (elspeth or Countertop in this case).

[Whit3 Ghost]

Couple questions (If they were mentioned in the article, my bad. Don't have premium, going from this thread/the SCG discussion (if you could call it that)).

The Anti-Merfolk list. Are 8 blasts enough to get the job done? Why no mass removal and why no way to deal with Mutavault? It seems as though the combination of a midgame bomb (firespout) with the Blasts would be your best option.

The Anti-Canadian List. It seems like a more tempo-y style of the deck, when I'm not so sure that it's the right call. If I was trying to beat Thrash, I'd focus more on your biggest advantages which are a better manabase and top. Submerge is cool and all, and having answers to Goyf in the face of mana-denial is great, but it seems like I'd rather actually be killing their creatures and stabilizing faster, rather than temporarily breaking up a Goyf standoff. Also, you said that you love opening dubs Swords against Canadian, even if they start with Goose. Why? That means you have 2x dead cards in hand and are going to be somewhat hard pressed to either answer the Goose, protect your own Goose or Goyf or defend against Stifle or Wasteland.

Why 7 swords without mass removal? Is Goyf enough to keep an army at bay while you stabilize?

Finally, your anti-CB-goyf list. If you want to play a Counterbalance deck that beats Counterbalance decks, why not just look at the decks from Chicago that were metagamed to do just that? Did you want to keep things streamlined within the shell of your final project?

As for Mongoose in Counterbalance Threshold. Some days he's the nut high and rolls through opponents, other times you wish he'd actually do something other than be a 1/1. I'm not sold on his inclusion yet, especially depending on the direction of the deck.

[frogboy]

Yeah, trying to put some Pros in their place. I don't know who Sti is, and I don't give a damn. I'm a little bit sick of Pro Tour arrogance, particularly how insulting they are to legacy players. The stuff I saw on the SCG chat this past weekend made me sick.

Good thing we have the People's Champion to send to the Invitational.

Using Path in conjunction with a mana denial plan in the mirror is a bit of a wtf.

[Happy Gilmore]

Me too, but this is not one of them. If you read the article, you'd see I ran this i a tournament, and gave my tournament report.

I retract my previous statement. My appologies. The rest still stands though, I recognize some invention in your list, I just feel that the key differences between it and other CB lists could have taken a greater focus in the article.

[Smmenen]

I should have explained this more carefully in the article, but here is my general view of Legacy at the moment:

I believe the topography of Legacy is defined by two poles: Zoo and Merfolk.

The key to unlocking Legacy is to find the deck that *naturally* beats both archetypes, then tune it to beat the rest of the field. Beating Dredge or Ad Nauseam is easy, if that's your goal. Beating Merfolk or Zoo requires alot more.

That's what my CounterTop list does. The 7 Plow effects allows you to beat Merfolk and Zoo.

[MattH]

I should have explained this more carefully in the article, but here is my general view of Legacy at the moment:

I believe the topography of Legacy is defined by two poles: Zoo and Merfolk.

The key to unlocking Legacy is to find the deck that *naturally* beats both archetypes, then tune it to beat the rest of the field. Beating Dredge or Ad Nauseam is easy, if that's your goal. Beating Merfolk or Zoo requires alot more.

That's what my CounterTop list does. The 7 Plow effects allows you to beat Merfolk and Zoo.

You don't think Countertop itself is a pole?

[Anusien]

I don't think CB is dominant enough to be a pole. The same goes with Enchantress or Stax or similar decks.

That said, don't you just overload on Firespout and then follow with either BEB or Llawan to beat Merfolk/Zoo?

Llawan is also significantly better against NO Bant than Submerge, StP and Path to Exile.

[Nightmare]

Firespout

This is my entire issue with this approach and argument. I'd be much more on board with your deck if you went:

-3 Mongoose
+3 Rhox War Monk
-3 Path to Exile
+3 Firespout

Firespout is better than P2E in literally every single matchup you pointed out in your article.

On the other hand, I strongly believe the terrible thread was way off saying StP/P2E are bad vs. Ichorid. There's no other way for blue to deal with Bloodghast/Ichorid/GGT(when Dread Returned)/etc. Between that, and Firespout/ETruth/EE for the Bridge Tokens - or alternatively Pridemage over Predator - you're not so afraid of Dredge anymore.

[Anusien]

From my experiences with Dredge, relying on Path to Exile/Swords to Plowshares to beat Troll is kind of loose. They usually Therapy multiple times first (I've never had a Troll sent farming), and there was always a good chance they'd just make Flame-Kin Zealot and attack for a million instead. Now they even have Iona. Against blue decks you have a better chance of Plowing Troll just because they have to Therapy counters instead.

That said, turn 3 you usually look at the board and say "To win, the blue deck needs EE/Firespout to deal with the Zombies, StP to deal with Troll and answers to Ichorid."

But the thesis of my argument on SCG was basically that A) Nimble Mongoose is pretty rough, and I generally find 4 answers + Tarmogoyf can often not be enough, and B) You're increasing the number of pinpoint answers in the blue mirrors, where BrassMan and I like going to more expensive cards, namely Sower and Vedalken Shackles.

I brought up that BrassMan top2ed a GP and lost in the finals. Your argument was basically that Merfolk didn't exist then. But it was A) all over the tournament, and B) basically identical to "modern" lists. What Roxas tells me is that you basically can't beat Merfolk without 4 Firespout in your sideboard, and even then it can be rough. I don't think trying to trade 1 for 1 against a deck with 3 fewer lands that also has Standstill is a good decision. Especially since unlike Zoo, you don't have any trumps. Against Zoo it might be possible to stall until you resolve Counterbalance and just blow them out. But Merfolk is pretty good against that plan, both with Vial and 3 drops, and also because they blank your guys.

[Smmenen]

You don't think Countertop itself is a pole?

It's a node, but not a pole. There are other nodes, like 38 Land and Ad Nauseam.

The topography of Legacy -- in my view -- is like a saddle form, with Zoo and Merfolk at both vertical peaks of the saddle. You want something that naturally beats both. That's the key, imo.

Part of the reason they are poles is becuase the other things are much easier to beat with a few key tactics. One way to beat Counterbalance is to play Aether Vials or to play spells that cost more than 2 (or 3).


I don't think CB is dominant enough to be a pole. The same goes with Enchantress or Stax or similar decks.

That said, don't you just overload on Firespout and then follow with either BEB or Llawan to beat Merfolk/Zoo?

Llawan is also significantly better against NO Bant than Submerge, StP and Path to Exile.


Firespout often can't wipe out the Merfolk army if they have as few as two lords down. Also, if you Firespout, that kills your Geese or Hierarchs if you run them. Finally, it's alot more expensive than the cheap tempo play of Plow/Path.

Llawen doesn't stop them from playing creatures with Aether Vial, and it's ridiculously expensive. It's also a control card. STP/Path is both control and tempo card. You want tactical flexibility to be able to go uptempo/aggro.


This is my entire issue with this approach and argument. I'd be much more on board with your deck if you went:

-3 Mongoose
+3 Rhox War Monk
-3 Path to Exile
+3 Firespout

Firespout is better than P2E in literally every single matchup you pointed out in your article.

On the other hand, I strongly believe the terrible thread was way off saying StP/P2E are bad vs. Ichorid. There's no other way for blue to deal with Bloodghast/Ichorid/GGT(when Dread Returned)/etc. Between that, and Firespout/ETruth/EE for the Bridge Tokens - or alternatively Pridemage over Predator - you're not so afraid of Dredge anymore.

You are choosing control cards for tempo cards. Also, adding a fourth color to the mana base for one card is, imo, terrible. See what I said in the article about Firespout.


From my experiences with Dredge, relying on Path to Exile/Swords to Plowshares to beat Troll is kind of loose. They usually Therapy multiple times first (I've never had a Troll sent farming), and there was always a good chance they'd just make Flame-Kin Zealot and attack for a million instead. Now they even have Iona. Against blue decks you have a better chance of Plowing Troll just because they have to Therapy counters instead.

That said, turn 3 you usually look at the board and say "To win, the blue deck needs EE/Firespout to deal with the Zombies, StP to deal with Troll and answers to Ichorid."


Actually, I deal with Dredge a different way: I use Tormod's Crypts * 4 and Grunts.





But the thesis of my argument on SCG was basically that A) Nimble Mongoose is pretty rough, and I generally find 4 answers + Tarmogoyf can often not be enough, and B) You're increasing the number of pinpoint answers in the blue mirrors, where BrassMan and I like going to more expensive cards, namely Sower and Vedalken Shackles.



I don't recall you ever mentioning Goose on SCG, for being your thesis.

In any case, I dislike the expensive cards for a bunch of reasons. They lose you tactical flexiblity and set you into strategic rigidity, i.e. control role, more than I like.




I brought up that BrassMan top2ed a GP and lost in the finals. Your argument was basically that Merfolk didn't exist then.


Um, no it wasn't.

That's not even close to what I said.




But it was A) all over the tournament, and B) basically identical to "modern" lists. What Roxas tells me is that you basically can't beat Merfolk without 4 Firespout in your sideboard, and even then it can be rough.



Well, I disagree with Roxas. I proposed a list that does in fact beat Merfolk. All you have to do, basically, is Plow/Path Wake Thrasher and Lord of Atlantis and you can trump them with your Goyfs.




I don't think trying to trade 1 for 1 against a deck with 3 fewer lands that also has Standstill is a good decision.


Unless those 1-for-1 trades are really good trades, like trading a Jeweled Bird for a Black Lotus in 5c. When you plow Lord or Wake Thasher, the rest of their deck becomes crappy (with the ecxeption of Reejery).



Especially since unlike Zoo, you don't have any trumps.

What do you think Goyf is?

[Otter]

Firespout often can't wipe out the Merfolk army if they have as few as two lords down.

This is flat-out untrue. All of Fish's lords are 2/2s that pump the rest of the team by +1/+1. Two of them means that they're both 3/3 and die and then the rest of the team follows them right into the bin. They need three lords to survive Firespout.

[Smmenen]

That's correct -- I forgot that Lord of Atlantis errata specifies that he didn't pump himself.

If you can win through advantageous 1-for-1 trades, that's better imo than splashing for a 4th color for one card that weakens your mana base.

[Nightmare]

That's correct -- I forgot that Lord of Atlantis errata specifies that he didn't pump himself.

If you can win through advantageous 1-for-1 trades, that's better imo than splashing for a 4th color for one card that weakens your mana base.

Why were you willing to run 8 red blast effects when you were creating your "ideal" decks, but aren't willing to run red for Firespout?

In addition to that point, you aren't significantly weakening the manabase by adding in 2 Volcanic Island.

[Smmenen]

Why were you willing to run 8 red blast effects when you were creating your "ideal" decks, but aren't willing to run red for Firespout?



Because in my ideal anti Merfolk deck, I wouldn't run white at all. It would be UGR with 8 Red Blasts. It would be 3 colors with plenty of basics.


In addition to that point, you aren't significantly weakening the manabase by adding in 2 Volcanic Island.

It's greedy.

[frogboy]

Probably if you Wrath Merfolk with Firespout and then they Waste your Volcanic, you are doing okay.

[Smmenen]

Probably if you Wrath Merfolk with Firespout and then they Waste your Volcanic, you are doing okay.

Probably. But what if you face a match where you really need those basics, like Canadian Threshold or Aggro Loam? Where the difference between 2 volcs and 2 more basics can make the difference in a match?

Let's not be quite so reductionist. Costs and benefits are spread across the field, and cannot be looked at through the lens of a particular match to make conclusions.

[Anusien]

For the record, I sincerely doubt 4 Tormod's Crypt + Grunts is nearly enough to beat Dredge.

They have 8 ways to get around Tarmogoyf (Reejery to tap it, Lord of Atlantis to Islandwalk past it).

You cite killing Mongeese and Hierarchs as downsides to Firespout. But A) It's a good way to get them to over-extend into a more hateful Firespout, and B) I think those cards are awful anyway.

Your principal argument here has basically been "Relying on control cards forces you into the control role, meaning you lose strategic flexibility." But honestly I don't think you have that flexibility to begin with. You're not really ever in a position to beat down against Merfolk. Adding 3 Path to Exile to a build that runs 4 Swords to Plowshares doesn't magically make that better. Especially if they can cut you off white.

For the record:



I brought up that BrassMan top2ed a GP and lost in the finals. Your argument was basically that Merfolk didn't exist then.
That's not even close to what I said.




BrassMan top2ed a GP without Plow. I think this says something about the optimality of 7Plow.dec.
Brassman's deck was built in a very different metagame. Merfolk hadn't yet fully arrived. Zoo hadn't yet fully arrived. Path had just seen print.

Brassman's list had, however, a bunch of Shackles and Sowers.

Fundamentally, here's the thing. CB lists with 4 Plows are losing to Fish left and right. (I'll back this up with a shitton of data once Jared Sylva posts the next incarnation of Too Much Information). Your argument for why 7 Plow beats Fish is basically "Because you can always take out Reejery/Atlantis/Wake Thrasher." The argument you need to be making is why adding 3 Plows magically makes this any different.

By the way, Sower of Temptation is apparently one of the best cards in the mirror according to everyone who commented on SCG, as well as a Merfolk supposed-expert I talked to at the $5k (Bill Yowell, who T8ed and lost to Imperial Painter) with it and Jitte being 1 and 2. Swords to Plowshares wasn't in the running. It's not a direct comparison, but it says something about the validity of 7Plow.

Yes, Llawan, Cephalid Empress costs 4. But you know what? The game will go that long, especially if your 7 Plow strategy is any good at stalling. It lets them play guys through Aether Vial, but it completely wipes their side of the board and preserves your terrible Hierarchs and Nimble Mongeese. And it's the only card you have that actually lets you beat NO Bant, because you're completely cold to Natural Order. You just have FoW + Daze to fight it. And there's no way in hell you can run them out of guys, especially since your responses make it sound like in testing the opponent never went fetch for a Dryad Arbor, keep priority, sacrifice it to Natural Order.

[Aggro_zombies]

Probably. But what if you face a match where you really need those basics, like Canadian Threshold or Aggro Loam? Where the difference between 2 volcs and 2 more basics can make the difference in a match?

Let's not be quite so reductionist. Costs and benefits are spread across the field, and cannot be looked at through the lens of a particular match to make conclusions.
Why do you have to run them in the main? Firespout is worse against Zoo than just running quality guys and gaining life, and blue generally has strong matchups across the field. Firespout is probably a better card against Merfolk than Path, so you drop your white count game two and side out Tundras for Volcanics.

EDIT: I'm also going to throw my hat into the "7 Plows is three too many" ring here. Landstill-style decks use six or seven targeted removal spells because it stabilizes the early game for a deck whose clock is slow both in the number of turns it needs to win and the turn it comes down. Counterbalance decks get around this conundrum by using really big creatures as "removal spells" to discourage attacking: are you really going to send a Mongoose into a Tarmogoyf without a burn spell? Even if you have one, you're down two cards to kill a single Tarmogoyf in the best-case scenario (burn spell resolves). Soldier tokens and Mishra's Factory are pretty awful creature control elements against Zoo, so Landstill has to run more actual removal spells.

This deck doesn't need more pinpoint removal. The ability to Firespout, however, is useful to a deck that can then control further access to the board with Counterbalance. You will leave alive all of the big creatures, but yours are probably better and you can easily dispose of a single opposing Tarmogoyf and end the game with RWM or Tarmogoyf. This is a large part why white builds of Counterbalance have been moving in that direction, with NOProgenitus to randomly steal games against decks that can beat or which don't care about this approach.

[Smmenen]

For the record, I sincerely doubt 4 Tormod's Crypt + Grunts is nearly enough to beat Dredge.


It's not, but it's a good start. Cards like Force and Daze are also important. And, frankly, spot removal on cards like Putrid Imp can help.




They have 8 ways to get around Tarmogoyf (Reejery to tap it, Lord of Atlantis to Islandwalk past it).





You cite killing Mongeese and Hierarchs as downsides to Firespout. But A) It's a good way to get them to over-extend into a more hateful Firespout, and B) I think those cards are awful anyway.



(B) Is pretty much irrellevant, and (A) isn't really compelling.




Your principal argument here has basically been "Relying on control cards forces you into the control role, meaning you lose strategic flexibility." But honestly I don't think you have that flexibility to begin with. You're not really ever in a position to beat down against Merfolk. Adding 3 Path to Exile to a build that runs 4 Swords to Plowshares doesn't magically make that better. Especially if they can cut you off white.


My testing disagrees. If I draw a two plow hand and resolve a Goyf, I'm certainly in a position to beatdown, fast and hard. For example.





For the record, here is the exchange, in full:




[quote=Anusien]
BrassMan top2ed a GP without Plow. I think this says something about the optimality of 7Plow.dec.


Brassman's deck was built in a very different metagame. Merfolk hadn't yet fully arrived. Zoo hadn't yet fully arrived. Path had just seen print.



You're actually really wrong. Maybe it hadn't entered your radar yet, but Merfolk was all over the place. Zoo wasn't nearly as prevalent then as it is now, but Merfolk was more prevalent there than maybe anywhere else.


My response:




I think Merfolk peaked at SCG BOston, where it was the most prevalent deck. I know Merfolk was present in numbers at the GP, but my point was that it hadn't 'fully arrived' meaning it hadn't peaked to where it was shortly thereafter.

You represented my position as:



Your argument was basically that Merfolk didn't exist then.



That wasn't even close to what I said. What I said was that Merfolk hadn't "fully arrived." That's very, very far from saying "Merfolk didn't exist." Merfolk only fully arrived at the next event.




Fundamentally, here's the thing. CB lists with 4 Plows are losing to Fish left and right. (I'll back this up with a shitton of data once Jared Sylva posts the next incarnation of Too Much Information).



Or, you can read my article where I represent the data from SCG St. Louis, and created a matchup grid:
http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/18512_So_Many_Insane_Plays_Lots_of_Legacy.html

There were four matches between Merfolk and CounterTop decks in the whole tournament, and they went 2-2.

In my previous Matchup Grid article, where I created a grid that showed every single matchup from the previous SCG $5k, a similar result obtained:



Merfolk versus CounterTop-Goyf (4-3)

I had to double check the data for this one to make sure I corrected the errors. This was yet another revealing matchup. Merfolk had risen in the ranks of the metagame partly because of its strength against the Counterbalance decks, both Countertop-Goyf and Dreadstill. As you can see from the grid, Merfolk was 4-0 against Dreadstill, but its matchup against CounterTop-Goyf has shifted, and it’s only a split now.

Yes, Merfolk has favorable matchup against Countertop.

And?




Your argument for why 7 Plow beats Fish is basically "Because you can always take out Reejery/Atlantis/Wake Thrasher." The argument you need to be making is why adding 3 Plows magically makes this any different.



That is the argument I've been making here. I'm not sure why you haven't seen that.

7 Plow effects shifts the Merfolk matchup from unfavorable to favorable. It's very simple.

However, you can't justify a card on the basis of a single matchup.




By the way, Sower of Temptation is apparently one of the best cards in the mirror according to everyone who commented on SCG, as well as a Merfolk supposed-expert I talked to at the $5k (Bill Yowell, who T8ed and lost to Imperial Painter) with it and Jitte being 1 and 2. Swords to Plowshares wasn't in the running. It's not a direct comparison, but it says something about the validity of 7Plow.



It does, what is that?




Yes, Llawan, Cephalid Empress costs 4. But you know what? The game will go that long, especially if your 7 Plow strategy is any good at stalling. It lets them play guys through Aether Vial, but it completely wipes their side of the board and preserves your terrible Hierarchs and Nimble Mongeese. And it's the only card you have that actually lets you beat NO Bant, because you're completely cold to Natural Order. You just have FoW + Daze to fight it. And there's no way in hell you can run them out of guys, especially since your responses make it sound like in testing the opponent never went fetch for a Dryad Arbor, keep priority, sacrifice it to Natural Order.

Merfolk isn't the matchup in existence. While my point here STP provides a strong effect, Llawen isn't universally strong like Plows are.

Llawen, for example, does nothing against Zoo.

[Smmenen]

Interesting:

I think one area of confusion is that this decklist is very different from the CounterTop lists that were so popular earlier in 2009.

This decklist is much closer to the UGW Threshold lists of an earlier era, except that it also uses the CounterTop plan as another mode of card advantage, tempo, and control, variously and depending on the situation.

[Illissius]

While I don't know the list because of not having premium, Legacy did have a phase when essentially classic UGW Threshold with Countertop added was the norm. (Logically, this was the phase in between old Threshold decks and "modern" Counterbalance decks.)

[frogboy]

Probably. But what if you face a match where you really need those basics, like Canadian Threshold or Aggro Loam? Where the difference between 2 volcs and 2 more basics can make the difference in a match?

Let's not be quite so reductionist. Costs and benefits are spread across the field, and cannot be looked at through the lens of a particular match to make conclusions.

The lists that are floating around IRC run eight fetchlands, five basics, seven duals, and have fine (not bad, not great) matchups with Canadian Thresh.

[FoolofaTook]

While I don't know the list because of not having premium, Legacy did have a phase when essentially classic UGW Threshold with Countertop added was the norm. (Logically, this was the phase in between old Threshold decks and "modern" Counterbalance decks.)

It was a short phase as I recall and it was overpowered by all of Ugr Threshold with Bloodmoons (I think a Hatfield invention), Canadian Threshold and Dreadstill - at least in the east coast meta.

[Nightmare]

For what it's worth, I ran a counter-top list with NO-Prog and 8 Plows at the GP where Brassy took second with 0 plows. I didn't make day two because of an egregious play error in the penultimate round. Having some actual tournament experience with said deck, as well as playing 8 Plows in Merfolk, I'll say this much:

A) 8 was too many in CBTop.
B) Even with 8 Plows, I lost to Goblins, because when I was drawing Plows, they were dropping Siege Gangs and Ringleaders.
C) Firespout has now replaced all copies of Path to Exile in my CBTop lists.
D) Merfolk capitalized much more on the tempo of Plow than CBTop did.
E) I have beaten zoo a number of times with Merfolk, as well as the mirror, due to access to 8 Plows in a blue Aggro deck.

There is no conclusion to be made here from this data. I'm simply presenting my experience.

[mchainmail]

For what it's worth, I ran a counter-top list with NO-Prog and 8 Plows at the GP where Brassy took second with 0 plows. I didn't make day two because of an egregious play error in the penultimate round. Having some actual tournament experience with said deck, as well as playing 8 Plows in Merfolk, I'll say this much:

A) 8 was too many in CBTop.
B) Even with 8 Plows, I lost to Goblins, because when I was drawing Plows, they were dropping Siege Gangs and Ringleaders.
C) Firespout has now replaced all copies of Path to Exile in my CBTop lists.
D) Merfolk capitalized much more on the tempo of Plow than CBTop did.
E) I have beaten zoo a number of times with Merfolk, as well as the mirror, due to access to 8 Plows in a blue Aggro deck.

There is no conclusion to be made here from this data. I'm simply presenting my experience.

After playing this deck in a 7 round tournament in Vestal this past weekend (3-4 finish, I have a report of the event if anyone would be interested in it) I think that plows are really bad in the mirror, when they have the ability to resolve a counterbalance at any time to basically lock you out of the game. You are absolutely cold to a resolved counterbalance, with all your threats at 1 and 2, but Natural Order is a 4 and can't be stopped.

Jotun Grunt was fantastic every time I cast it, and as a 1-2 of it seems really good. Nimble Mongoose was good occasionally, but without stifle + wasteland my graveyard was far too barren.

Against Goblins, it's really easy to fall behind on tempo and swords can't catch up for you. (Firespout would be good though.)

I really like bringing Canonist in against combo, as it gives 6 gamebreaking t2 plays and an answer they would not be boarding in regularly.

[Malakai]

That's correct -- I forgot that Lord of Atlantis errata specifies that he didn't pump himself.

If you can win through advantageous 1-for-1 trades, that's better imo than splashing for a 4th color for one card that weakens your mana base.

How much testing do you expect us to believe you did when THIS is something you forgot?

Also: It's good to see you active again Anusien.

[Malakai]

I really like bringing Canonist in against combo, as it gives 6 gamebreaking t2 plays and an answer they would not be boarding in regularly.

I've found Spell Pierce to be a much better card to bring in. It's also good in a lot more matchups, instead of being confined to storm combo--a matchup that's already quite favorable.

[Amon Amarth]

I don't know if I would say Plows are bad vs Dredge. Yeah its not optimal but they are much better than most of the cards in CB against them. They wont always have the Therapy and removing a Putrid Imp can be game winning. I'm sure this isn't news but Dredge can stumble over itself from time to time. I think I'd rather have Plows than Firespout here.

[mchainmail]

I've found Spell Pierce to be a much better card to bring in. It's also good in a lot more matchups, instead of being confined to storm combo--a matchup that's already quite favorable.

Spell Pierce seems strong too, especially in the mirror / quasi mirror, where this deck is weakest (especially against Natural Order)

[MattH]

For what it's worth, I ran a counter-top list with NO-Prog and 8 Plows at the GP where Brassy took second with 0 plows. I didn't make day two because of an egregious play error in the penultimate round. Having some actual tournament experience with said deck, as well as playing 8 Plows in Merfolk, I'll say this much:

A) 8 was too many in CBTop.
B) Even with 8 Plows, I lost to Goblins, because when I was drawing Plows, they were dropping Siege Gangs and Ringleaders.
C) Firespout has now replaced all copies of Path to Exile in my CBTop lists.
D) Merfolk capitalized much more on the tempo of Plow than CBTop did.
E) I have beaten zoo a number of times with Merfolk, as well as the mirror, due to access to 8 Plows in a blue Aggro deck.

There is no conclusion to be made here from this data. I'm simply presenting my experience.

In the spirit of the above post, I've tried Supreme Blue, that Planeswalker deck, and some hybrids of them, and eventually settled on 4 STP 1 Path 3 Firespout as my preferred MD removal.

If you expect little to no countertop, I can see why you might want to go overboard on plows.


From my experiences with Dredge, relying on Path to Exile/Swords to Plowshares to beat Troll is kind of loose. They usually Therapy multiple times first (I've never had a Troll sent farming), and there was always a good chance they'd just make Flame-Kin Zealot and attack for a million instead. Now they even have Iona. Against blue decks you have a better chance of Plowing Troll just because they have to Therapy counters instead.

Plows are not there to remove Troll, they're there to keep you off of 3 creatures. Bloodghast might give dredge the critical mass of guys where this plan doesn't work anymore, but certainly prior to that, this was an acceptable plan (or a decent component of an acceptable plan that also included more serious measures like Tormod's Crypt).

Like, one Crypt isn't enough, you need two pieces of hate...OR one piece of hate and throw the kitchen sink at them to sub for the other. "Stifle the 'Meba, Force the Breakthrough, Waste the land, Plow the Ichorid" plus one piece of hate can be enough.

[Nightmare]

Like, one Crypt isn't enough, you need two pieces of hate...OR one piece of hate and throw the kitchen sink at them to sub for the other. "Stifle the 'Meba, Force the Breakthrough, Waste the land, Plow the Ichorid" plus one piece of hate can be enough.

Of course, sometimes just playing a turn 2 Tarmogoyf after Forcing their Breakthrough is enough to win the game outright. It's always nice when that deck loses to itself.

[frogboy]

@Smmenen: Do you understand how small your sample size is for any sort of inference testing based on data of matches played in 5ks?

[Smmenen]

That's not a leading question.

[frogboy]

I was deliberately trying to ask the question in such a way that I was not implying your position. However, it appears that you place great weight on match win percentage in tournament play for a given matchup, preferring empirical data to theory. Do you?

[MattH]

Of course, sometimes just playing a turn 2 Tarmogoyf after Forcing their Breakthrough is enough to win the game outright. It's always nice when that deck loses to itself.

Or when they mull to 3 and your seven includes Ravenous Trap, as happened to me last time I faced Dredge. The power of cutting the opponents deck is not to be underestimated!!!

[Illissius]

The power of cutting the opponents deck is not to be underestimated!!!

WITH A LIGHTSABER

[Smmenen]

So, I just want to say this:

I am sincerely apologetic for the way I conducted myself in the thread to this article on SCG. I acted like an ass. I am going to try my best to make sure it doesn't happen again. Also, I want to apologize to Anusien, in particular, as he was one of the subjects of my wrath. I'm going to try my best to give you more respect man. You are not a troll. I am the troll.


I was deliberately trying to ask the question in such a way that I was not implying your position. However, it appears that you place great weight on match win percentage in tournament play for a given matchup, preferring empirical data to theory. Do you?

This is a complicated question.

If a stat is high, like the Ad Nauseam v. CounterTop stat, which had 12 matches that were like 11-1, then I would give alot of credence to that. However, I admit it's not statistically significant, which is usually 30 matches.

I also think theory and empirical data should be interpreted together (in fact, I don't think they can be interpreted apart).

I don't think that 5 matches in one tournament is enough to say anything, but I think if we see consistent trends over time, and results accord with those trends, then that gives them credibility.

[Happy Gilmore]

For the record, I sincerely doubt 4 Tormod's Crypt + Grunts is nearly enough to beat Dredge.



I can attest to the fact that it goes a long long way to beating dredge, at least it seems to be approximately the correct amount of hate in a zoo shell.

At the last Vestal Tournament I beat Ichorid 2-0 without any crypts even and just 2 grunts in the board. Yes, it was lucky, but Grunt effectively stopped them from doing anything the rest of the game. Crypt and Grunt have great overlap and most importantly Grunt is fantastic in a variety of other matchups. In that I feel Grunt has merit in this meta game, either in Counter top or other decks.

[Smmenen]

I can attest to the fact that it goes a long long way to beating dredge, at least it seems to be approximately the correct amount of hate in a zoo shell.

At the last Vestal Tournament I beat Ichorid 2-0 without any crypts even and just 2 grunts in the board. Yes, it was lucky, but Grunt effectively stopped them from doing anything the rest of the game. Crypt and Grunt have great overlap and most importantly Grunt is fantastic in a variety of other matchups. In that I feel Grunt has merit in this meta game, either in Counter top or other decks.

LOL, if there is one thing that will never be solved, it's the amount of hate that you need to beat Dredge ;)

I like my configuratio, too, though :)

[Whit3 Ghost]

I'll ask my biggest question again, because it got buried. I'm interested as to theory behind the anti Canadian list. What are the merits of the counter-tempo plan, to refer to your list, compared to say, a list that relies more on mid to lategame bombs, resolved tops and a resilient manabase? Did the plan to combat Tempo Thresh come from your desire to play old school Thresh that just happened to play CB/Top as opposed to a deck that focused on Balance? Or is this the best anti-Canadian CB/Top list period?

[Smmenen]

My theory behind the anti-canadian threshold list is several fold:

1) build a stable mana base, including a slightly higher mana count that normal. That way you can resist their attempts to mana screw you.
2) have answers that they can't answer: they can't burn Goose. My geese will be able to trade with theirs.
3) maximum removal for Goyf. Keep their Goyf off the table so that mine will survive and kill them.
4) tricks: Grunt is pretty amazing versus them.

The deck is pretty much symmetrical, except that I have white removal and a few more creatures. I see those as all advantages.