lordofthepit
04-20-2010, 04:31 PM
Much has been made of the fact that Legacy is booming in popularity. Because of the restriction on reprints on the Reserved List (on the dual lands in particular) limits the availability of staples, some have speculated that the format will not be able to sustain itself, much like Vintage was unable to do so (largely because of the limited supply of Power 9), thereby necessitating the non-sanctioned proxied tournaments. I don't think the comparison is apt for several reasons.
1) Sheer disparity in print runs. Looking at the print runs on Crystal Keep, there were probably under 30000 of each rare from A/B/U floating around in circulation; in contrast, there are at least 300000 of each dual land available, so just for starters, there are at least 10 times as many duals as there are of each power (my calculations show closer to 11, but that point is moot).
2) It is more necessary to acquire a full complement of Vintage staples than it is Legacy staples. Although I haven't followed Vintage much recently, it seems that every deck (other than Dredge) benefits from a Black Lotus and on-colored Moxes, and a majority benefit from the inclusion of off-colored Mox and the blue power (save Timetwister). In contrast, there are many strategies that do not use any dual lands at all--in fact, Merfolk, Goblins, and the two Dredge threads make up 4 of the 11 decks in the DtB forum. Moreover, of the decks that do use duals, the requirements are spread out among the 10 different types, although with some (Tropical Island, Underground Sea) clearly more than others (Badlands, Scrubland).
I took a look at the decks that formed the Top 8 at GP Madrid, as decklists were easily accessible and this represents the very highest level of competitive Legacy. There were three Zoo decks, two ANTs, two Countertops, and one Reanimator deck represented. Despite the fact that competitive mono-colored (Merfolk, Goblins) and rainbow-colored (Dredge, TES) strategies were not represented in this list, which would skew the distribution of duals up, there were only 45 dual lands represented among between the 8 decks. Only two dual lands were represented more than 6 times (Underground Sea--12, Tropical Island--9).
I don't follow Vintage anymore, but I scoured the list of recent reported tournaments for a recent one with good turnout, and settled on CVQ - Finals 2009 - Quebec, with 84 participants. A total of 62 pieces of Power 9 were represented among the top 8. Every single one used the allowable Lotus, Sapphire, Jet, Emerald, Walk, and Recall; seven used Ruby, six included Pearl, and only one featured Timetwister.
Thus, the competitive Vintage deck uses more pieces of Power than the corresponding Legacy deck uses duals. This doesn't even account for the competitive Legacy strategies available (not represented in the GP Madrid Top 8) which don't use dual lands, whereas no strategy in Vintage exists that doesn't use Power (other than Dredge, which uses a full complement of four Bazaars).
3) A greater proportion of Vintage staples are not in active circulation. By this, I'm referring to the fact that collectors are much more likely to be hoarding Power 9 than they are dual lands, which removes the former from the circulation of cards available to players; after all, who the hell would send a Revised Underground Sea to PSA for grading and protect it in a screw-down case for protection? Furthermore, because of the much smaller print run of Power 9, a loss of 5000 Lotuses (to use an arbitrary estimate) to collectors would represent almost 20% of the Lotuses originally available, whereas the loss of 5000 Underground Seas over the last 15 years would hardly make a dent in the secondary market.
Combining these three factors, I'd estimate that competitive Legacy could easily sustain 15-20 times, perhaps even more, as many players as Vintage could without the use of proxies. Certainly, the price of entry is becoming exclusive to many would-be players, and I don't want to trivialize this unfortunate development; but at the same time, Legacy is booming in popularity and contrary to what some have suggested, there are more than enough staples available (dual lands) to sustain the format and to allow for further growth.
1) Sheer disparity in print runs. Looking at the print runs on Crystal Keep, there were probably under 30000 of each rare from A/B/U floating around in circulation; in contrast, there are at least 300000 of each dual land available, so just for starters, there are at least 10 times as many duals as there are of each power (my calculations show closer to 11, but that point is moot).
2) It is more necessary to acquire a full complement of Vintage staples than it is Legacy staples. Although I haven't followed Vintage much recently, it seems that every deck (other than Dredge) benefits from a Black Lotus and on-colored Moxes, and a majority benefit from the inclusion of off-colored Mox and the blue power (save Timetwister). In contrast, there are many strategies that do not use any dual lands at all--in fact, Merfolk, Goblins, and the two Dredge threads make up 4 of the 11 decks in the DtB forum. Moreover, of the decks that do use duals, the requirements are spread out among the 10 different types, although with some (Tropical Island, Underground Sea) clearly more than others (Badlands, Scrubland).
I took a look at the decks that formed the Top 8 at GP Madrid, as decklists were easily accessible and this represents the very highest level of competitive Legacy. There were three Zoo decks, two ANTs, two Countertops, and one Reanimator deck represented. Despite the fact that competitive mono-colored (Merfolk, Goblins) and rainbow-colored (Dredge, TES) strategies were not represented in this list, which would skew the distribution of duals up, there were only 45 dual lands represented among between the 8 decks. Only two dual lands were represented more than 6 times (Underground Sea--12, Tropical Island--9).
I don't follow Vintage anymore, but I scoured the list of recent reported tournaments for a recent one with good turnout, and settled on CVQ - Finals 2009 - Quebec, with 84 participants. A total of 62 pieces of Power 9 were represented among the top 8. Every single one used the allowable Lotus, Sapphire, Jet, Emerald, Walk, and Recall; seven used Ruby, six included Pearl, and only one featured Timetwister.
Thus, the competitive Vintage deck uses more pieces of Power than the corresponding Legacy deck uses duals. This doesn't even account for the competitive Legacy strategies available (not represented in the GP Madrid Top 8) which don't use dual lands, whereas no strategy in Vintage exists that doesn't use Power (other than Dredge, which uses a full complement of four Bazaars).
3) A greater proportion of Vintage staples are not in active circulation. By this, I'm referring to the fact that collectors are much more likely to be hoarding Power 9 than they are dual lands, which removes the former from the circulation of cards available to players; after all, who the hell would send a Revised Underground Sea to PSA for grading and protect it in a screw-down case for protection? Furthermore, because of the much smaller print run of Power 9, a loss of 5000 Lotuses (to use an arbitrary estimate) to collectors would represent almost 20% of the Lotuses originally available, whereas the loss of 5000 Underground Seas over the last 15 years would hardly make a dent in the secondary market.
Combining these three factors, I'd estimate that competitive Legacy could easily sustain 15-20 times, perhaps even more, as many players as Vintage could without the use of proxies. Certainly, the price of entry is becoming exclusive to many would-be players, and I don't want to trivialize this unfortunate development; but at the same time, Legacy is booming in popularity and contrary to what some have suggested, there are more than enough staples available (dual lands) to sustain the format and to allow for further growth.