[Article] Too Much Information - StarCityGames.com Legacy Open: Atlanta

[Eldariel]

Too Much Information - StarCityGames.com Legacy Open: Atlanta (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/19336_Too_Much_Information_StarCityGamescom_Legacy_Open_Atlanta.html) by Jared Silva

Again, analysis of the last SCG Legacy Open, match-up by match-up. Some really intriguing numbers there, such as ANT going 0-2 against Goblins and 0-3 against Lands. That, and while Merfolk builds seem to have shored up their Zoo MU somewhat, it seems the same tools don't work against Goblins; the match-up appears completely atrocious, as traditional wisdom suggests. Of course, this data alone isn't large enough to base conclusions on, but it's yet another link in the chain of results for more comprehensive analysis.

[mchainmail]

Too Much Information - StarCityGames.com Legacy Open: Atlanta (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/19336_Too_Much_Information_StarCityGamescom_Legacy_Open_Atlanta.html) by Jared Silva

Again, analysis of the last SCG Legacy Open, match-up by match-up. Some really intriguing numbers there, such as ANT going 0-2 against Goblins and 0-3 against Lands. That, and while Merfolk builds seem to have shored up their Zoo MU somewhat, it seems the same tools don't work against Goblins; the match-up appears completely atrocious, as traditional wisdom suggests. Of course, this data alone isn't large enough to base conclusions on, but it's yet another link in the chain of results for more comprehensive analysis.

Read it again... I think the numbers are backwards (in the Lands section, the numbers represent how well Ad Nauseum does against Lands)

[Anusien]

Read it again... I think the numbers are backwards (in the Lands section, the numbers represent how well Ad Nauseum does against Lands)
No, Eldariel read it right I think.

[Eldariel]

No, Eldariel read it right I think.

The text and the composite percentages confirm this. May be worth checking up with Silva, but it sure seems this way.

[Aggro_zombies]

What the fuck is "Jedi Emreka"? Some Naya deck using Lotus Cobra, Eureka, and Emrakul or something?

[Smmenen]

The text and the composite percentages confirm this. May be worth checking up with Silva, but it sure seems this way.

It's possible that at least some portion of the Land matchup can be explained by the Lands pilots running a substantial amount of hate for the matchup.

[Philipp2293]

@ Aggro-zombies: UG Deck using Eureka/Show and Tell to put Progenitus/Emrakul into play, with Force backup.

[Smmenen]

I just want to say that Jared is doing a spectacular job. This data is incredibly insightful. Interesting that CounterTop NO continues to be about a 62% match winner, yet it doesn't seem to be putting players into the Top 8 very often.

[mchainmail]

It's possible that at least some portion of the Land matchup can be explained by the Lands pilots running a substantial amount of hate for the matchup.


Oh wow then, I just assumed it was flipped.

What are Lands decks boarding in now? 4 Chalice of the Void was the old hate.

[Smmenen]

Oh wow then, I just assumed it was flipped.

What are Lands decks boarding in now? 4 Chalice of the Void was the old hate.

It's only three matches.

It could be that in one of the matches the Ad Nauseam pilot was just terrible and punted. It could be that in one of the other matches the Land pilot was super duper prepared with alot of hate. And it could be that in the other match the ANT got a game loss and then lost one of the other three games due to being on the draw and getting Chaliced.

We don't know. But I wouldn't read alot into three matches.

Here they are, from the spreadsheet:
1 Blackwelder, Nolan D Blue Land Won 2 1 0 Chambers, Justin Ad Nauseam
2 Woltereck, Chris E Blue Land Hexmage Depths Won 2 1 0 Mann, Matthew Ad Nauseam
3 Blackwelder, Nolan D Blue Land Won 2 1 0 Mann, Matthew Ad Nauseam

Note that two of the ANT losses to Land were by the same pilot, Matthew Mann and that two of the Lands wins where with the same pilot Th

The two time loser, Matthew Mann, beat BG in the first round and then lost rounds 2 and 3 to Lands. He dropped from the tournament, so we don't know how good he was with ANT.

Justin lost 1-2 to Zoo in round 3, after beating BG Ld i round 2, and then beat Doomsday in rnd 4, losing to Survival in rnd 5 before dropping.

Nolan Blackwelder beat ANT in round 1 and 3, so it's very likely that he had alot of ANT Hate.

This was not hard information to find. It was in the spreadsheet in the article.

You people are so effing lazy!!!!!!

[Tacosnape]

You people are so effing lazy!!!!!!

Laziness is far less pressure. It's much easier to just ignore all logic and assume that from this miniscule sampling of data that Lands is like 90-10 against ANT and go from there.

In actuality though, I'm going with pilot error. On a broad scale. One of my teammates managed to 2-1 ANT with Zoo in the first round.

[Smmenen]

Laziness is far less pressure. It's much easier to just ignore all logic and assume that from this miniscule sampling of data that Lands is like 90-10 against ANT and go from there.

In actuality though, I'm going with pilot error. On a broad scale. One of my teammates managed to 2-1 ANT with Zoo in the first round.

there is no reason to go with just one possible explanation when it's likely that there are multiple. the fact that only 4 people were involved in these three matches explains alot, actually.

it doesn't take much to dig into the data and see what I just pulled out.

that's why Jared Sylva does this: to inform the Legacy community. if you all don't take advantaeg of it, then whats the point?

[Aggro_zombies]

that's why Jared Sylva does this: to inform the Legacy community. if you all don't take advantaeg of it, then whats the point?
You know what boards you're on, right?

Why use incomplete data to partially explain things when we can argue in generalities and best-case goldfishes and then hop on MWS to get all our testing results? Assumptions are so much easier than thinking.

[Rico Suave]

The two time loser, Matthew Mann, beat BG in the first round and then lost rounds 2 and 3 to Lands. He dropped from the tournament, so we don't know how good he was with ANT.

Yes we do.

[conboy31]

Yes we do.

I've gotta admit, I laughed my ass off when I read that.