Force of Will: questions on it.

[DragoFireheart]

I'm not sure if this is the correct section to ask this question, so feel free to move this topic elsewhere.

Couple of questions on Force of Will:

1. What is the recommended number of blue cards to run to support FoW? 20? 19? 21?

2. What is the absolute minimum number of blue cards to run to support it?

(Some topic had the math and I have no idea where, so I'll ask).
3. If I run the minimum number of blue cards to support FoW, what is the % I'll draw another blue card in my opening hand?

4. What is the % I'll draw a blue card in my opening hand if I use the recommended number of blue cards?

[Chrommox]

# of Blue cards in a 60-card deck (Including 4x Force of Will): Approximate chance to open with Force of Will + a blue card (including one of the remaining FoW's)

15: 31.4%
16: 32.6%
17: 33.6%
18: 34.5%
19: 35.3%
20: 35.9%
21: 36.5%
22: 37.0%

Remember that you have a 40% chance to open with at least one FoW. Subtraction will show you the percentage of hands where you open with an FoW but no other blue card.

There are diminishing returns to adding more blue cards for the sake of opening with an active FoW. Moving from 15 to 16 blue cards increases the odds by ~1.2%, but moving from 21 to 22 blue cards increases the odds by ~0.5%.



peace,
4eak

[Bardo]

1. 18-19 is the recommended minimum number of blue cards to support FoW (including 4x FoW); personally, I like a 20-21 blue card count.

2. 16 is about as low as you can go and it's hard to count on double FoW'ing in these games

3 and 4. See above

[Hanni]

Some people are crazy, like the old AfFOWnity deck. Those guys run 16-18 blue cards.

For me personally, 20 is my magic number. That's the number I always try to hit. Sometimes it has to go down to 19, and I accept it. I never let it go down to 18 or less, as a deckbuilder. When I'm capable of getting more than 20, I embrace it.

Another very important thing to consider: sideboarding. If you are running the minimum number of blue spells, and you are not removing your FoW's for games 2 and 3, you have to be very selective about what you cut for sideboard cards. Sometimes, the only cards you will want to cut are blue ones. If you had 22 blue spells maindeck, this wouldn't be a big deal. If you had 18 blue spells maindeck, this would be a big deal.

[Rico Suave]

It depends on more than just how many blue cards you run, but also how important those blue cards are for your deck to function properly, how good they are in multiples, what other cards are in your deck to disrupt the opponent, etc. There are a lot more factors than just how many blue cards are in the deck.

[DragoFireheart]

It depends on more than just how many blue cards you run, but also how important those blue cards are for your deck to function properly, how good they are in multiples, what other cards are in your deck to disrupt the opponent, etc. There are a lot more factors than just how many blue cards are in the deck.


See, I have this problem quite often: I need to force something in the early game (turn 1-2), but in my hand are Brainstorm and Daze. Now, it seems obvious to use Brainstorm so I can save the Daze to counter, but it's crap later on so you would instead think to use Daze. However, that also means you now have one less counter. Maybe Brainstorm would help you dig for a counter if you didn't pitch it...

It can be difficult what to pitch at times.

[Bardo]

Yeah, the "Do I Force the Exhume, pitching Brainstorm" or "Brainstorm to find another blue card?" is never easy. With 16-17 blue cards, I'd pitch the Brainstorm, with 20-21, I'd Brainstorm (speaking in extraordinarily broad terms).

[from Cairo]

Yeah, the "Do I Force the Exhume, pitching Brainstorm" or "Brainstorm to find another blue card?" is never easy. With 16-17 blue cards, I'd pitch the Brainstorm, with 20-21, I'd Brainstorm (speaking in extraordinarily broad terms).

For something that's going to win the game if it resolves, I'd pitch the Brainstorm. Yea, with 20-21 blue cards chances are you'll hit one in the top 3, but the possibility of losing over a greedy Brainstorm always strikes me as a play mistake. The extra knowledge of the top 3 is great, but in terms of risk versus reward, that knowledge does not seem worth the risk of a game winning spell resolving.

On the OT, I'd say 17 is the bare minimum, 19-21 is safer and anything beyond that gives you additional flexibility in choosing what to pitch.

[Obfuscate Freely]

Yeah, the "Do I Force the Exhume, pitching Brainstorm" or "Brainstorm to find another blue card?" is never easy.


For something that's going to win the game if it resolves, I'd pitch the Brainstorm.

Determining the correct play in situations like this will always require an accurate evaluation of Brainstorm's value, relative to your chances of winning the game. In other words, if your hand is garbage, and you really need the Brainstorm to find you both a blue card and some kind of action to get your own gameplan going, you have to play it before playing the Force.

It doesn't matter how "greedy" a play is if it gives you the best chance of winning the game. If pitching Brainstorm to Force is going to leave you dead in the water against an opponent who might well have another Exhume next turn, it's probably incorrect.

[Finn]

I just want to point out that this conversation highlights why FoW is not good against aggro and aggro-control. My games against the children of Threshold are commonly a mission to get my opponent to play Force of Will as often as possible.

[Rico Suave]

I just want to point out that this conversation highlights why FoW is not good against aggro and aggro-control. My games against the children of Threshold are commonly a mission to get my opponent to play Force of Will as often as possible.

Don't confuse the power of Force of Will with decks that happen to use Force of Will. Force is really, really good against aggro and aggro-control, but if the rest of the deck sucks it's not going to make a difference.

[Hanni]

I just want to point out that this conversation highlights why FoW is not good against aggro and aggro-control. My games against the children of Threshold are commonly a mission to get my opponent to play Force of Will as often as possible.

Force of Will is only bad against aggro if you have nothing to capitalize on the tempo it creates.

How is Force of Will bad against aggro/control though? Regardless if you capitalize on tempo or not, it can answer bombs like Counterbalance and Natural Order.