[SCD] Predict

[Gheizen64]

Now, i'm not really sure why i'm the one who's opening this, as i'm mostly an inactive player that like to look at his old complete collections of revised and little else mumbling about the good old days, however i feel i have to discuss this card.


http://deckbox.org/system/images/mtg/cards/29823.jpg

Hanni and others are discussing this in the U/W/x CounterTopWalker thread here (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?17904-U-W-x-CounterTop-Walker), but probably most forumers have missed all the discussion and the appreciation of Predict, so i'll do a short recap.

I believe (after reading that thread) that Predict may be the best card advantage spell in legacy. Why?

Point one:

- Predict has super strong sinergies with cards that people already run in their control decks: Top, Brainstorm, Ponder, NewJace (and counterbalance to a lesser extent). All those cards turn predict into an insane 1U instant that read : draw 3 discard 1.
In addition to the obvious sinergy (top/brain/etc-> predict for a draw 3 discard 1) there's also a more hidden one, that is that Predict make you able to run 4 tops and not feel the disadvantage by ciclying all top in excess.Similarly, Predict make sure all your Brainstorm will see relevants cards even if you don't hit a fetchland.

Point two:

- Predict it's an instant. Aside from the normal bonuses that being an instant is for a draw spell, you have to consider also that this mean the card is usable as disruption. The secondary ability of Predict hose Enlightened tutor, Counterbalance (if there's not a 2 cc card on top) and Academy ruins, three strong card in this format. The card is a counterspell + draw 2 for 1U against tutors (enlightened, earthly and personal), nothing short of amazing.

Point three:

- Predict is NEVER a bad card (compared to standstill, night's whisper or other comparable cards). Predict is bad only if you don't have a top, a brainstorm, a ponder or a Jace. In a control shell, this almost never happen. And still, as it worse, predict cycle.
Predict is also non-dependant on the matchups. Predict power-level is reliable and depend mostly on your deck. For a control card, this is crucial.

Point four:

- Rebecca Guay art. GG.

In short, i believe this card is nut. Why people have dismissed it this long (aside from a short appereance in old Thresh decks) and instead opted for standstill in a format with vial and 1 mana 3/3 creatures is a thing i don't understand, not to speak about the absolutely terribleness of standstill beyond turn 2/3.
Care to explain to me?

p.s. forgive the spelling, point to me the errors and i will correct them.

[morgan_coke]

+1. Yes, it is better than Standstill. I will be minorly sad when blue players stop playing crappy Standstill and start playing this, but I'll get over it, because I won't have to go on an in-game rant about why they're playing such a terrible card.

Some other interesting uses:

-Use Jace2 on your opponent, then mill the card with Predict instead of putting it on the bottom
-Kill your opponents' tops
-Destroy peoples' Doomsday piles
-Works with Ponder and Preordain too (although I'm not sure what deck is running those and Predict, just throwing it out there)

[DrJones]

The card was better before the banning of Mystical Tutor.

[Hanni]

Some other interesting uses:

-Use Jace2 on your opponent, then mill the card with Predict instead of putting it on the bottom


Use Jace TMS to draw 3 cards, put two back on top (+1 CA). Cast Predict to put the worst card in your graveyard, and draw 2 more cards (+1 CA). That's digging 4 cards deep for +2 CA. If you have a Top and spin it to look at a fresh 3, you've now dug 7 cards deep to find an answer.


The card was better before the banning of Mystical Tutor.

Agreed, and it's too bad that I didn't start playtesting with the card until only about a month before it got banned. Predict is still savage without Mystical Tutor around, though.

[emidln]

I've won more games where I have been Predicted post-Doomsday than I've lost. (2-1 currently) Most opponents telegraph it.

[SpikeyMikey]

I'm a Predict hater from way back. People used to play that shitty card with Memory Lapse. OMG, if I play two really bad cards together, neither of them is that bad!! Now maybe Predict's time has come and there is a niche to make it good but I couldn't make myself like it if my life depended on it. There are a host of mediocre draw spells I'd play before it like Lat Nam's Legacy or Accumulated Knowledge. Yes the mill can be cute but part of your complaint with Standstill is its situationalness. This has the same problem. Saying it cycles isn't good enough. 2 mana to cycle is 2 mana to much for a card you can't recur. Hell, I'd run Impulse first. But I probably wouldn't run any of them unless I already had a full set of Tops, Ponders, maybe some Brainstorms and a couple of Jaces.

[Hanni]

Yes the mill can be cute but part of your complaint with Standstill is its situationalness. This has the same problem

The situationalness is very different. Standstill requires for you to be winning to draw cards, a condition most people would label as "win-more." Predict only needs you to have knowledge of the top card of your library in a deck that has a million ways to find that out. Turn 1 Top enables Predict's to be castable for the rest of the entire game, for example. As an instant (and 1U), it allows you to hold mana open until end of turn in case you need to cast Counterspell or Swords to Plowshares. It also allows you to put the worst card of the top 3 into your graveyard, so you are essentially drawing 3 cards for 1U and discarding the worst one, making it a virtual draw 3. If you do have Top, spinning it after you cast Predict will allow you to see 3 fresh cards, essentially allowing you to dig very deep into your library for answers. It may not generate as much actual card advantage as Standstill, but it's a much better draw spell.

Top + Predict is a very powerful, and very underestimated draw engine. Once control players start trying it more and more, it will become heavily played. I remember not too long ago, when everyone said Jace TMS was a horrible card. (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?15872-SCD-Jace-the-Mind-Sculptor) We all know how that turned out...

I can understand if you have issues with it from prior experiences, but the card is much better than garbage like Accumulated Knowledge.


Saying it cycles isn't good enough. 2 mana to cycle is 2 mana to much for a card you can't recur.

For the record, I don't cycle it. There has been, in all of my playtesting, only one game where I used it as a draw 1, and that was a game where I needed an answer or I was dead, and I had no other options but to cycle it and hope I drew into the answer. Needless to say I didn't, and lost that game. Regardless, there are far fewer times where Predict is dead in hand than Standstill would be. The biggest selling point, though, is that Standstill won't draw you cards when you need them most (when you're behind), and Predict will.

[Pastorofmuppets]

Drive up its price, Legacy players. I have 8.

[Hanni]

Drive up its price, Legacy players. I have 8.

LOL.

I have a playset from way back in the day (sometime in 2006), so I'm set.

[morgan_coke]

Drive up its price, Legacy players. I have 8.

It's an uncommon from Odyssey, don't hold your breath.

[SpikeyMikey]

The situationalness is very different. Standstill requires for you to be winning to draw cards, a condition most people would label as "win-more." Predict only needs you to have knowledge of the top card of your library in a deck that has a million ways to find that out. Turn 1 Top enables Predict's to be castable for the rest of the entire game, for example. As an instant (and 1U), it allows you to hold mana open until end of turn in case you need to cast Counterspell or Swords to Plowshares. It also allows you to put the worst card of the top 3 into your graveyard, so you are essentially drawing 3 cards for 1U and discarding the worst one, making it a virtual draw 3. If you do have Top, spinning it after you cast Predict will allow you to see 3 fresh cards, essentially allowing you to dig very deep into your library for answers. It may not generate as much actual card advantage as Standstill, but it's a much better draw spell.

Top + Predict is a very powerful, and very underestimated draw engine. Once control players start trying it more and more, it will become heavily played. I remember not too long ago, when everyone said Jace TMS was a horrible card. (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?15872-SCD-Jace-the-Mind-Sculptor) We all know how that turned out...

I can understand if you have issues with it from prior experiences, but the card is much better than garbage like Accumulated Knowledge.



For the record, I don't cycle it. There has been, in all of my playtesting, only one game where I used it as a draw 1, and that was a game where I needed an answer or I was dead, and I had no other options but to cycle it and hope I drew into the answer. Needless to say I didn't, and lost that game. Regardless, there are far fewer times where Predict is dead in hand than Standstill would be. The biggest selling point, though, is that Standstill won't draw you cards when you need them most (when you're behind), and Predict will.

There are still people who don't like Jace 2.0 but I've always thought they were crazy :)

Like I said, I can't give Predict a fair shake because I loathe that card. But you're spending 3 mana to Top and Predict. So basically it's a less restrictive 2 card TfK. Although, you're more restricted in what it can pitch (one of the top 3 instead of top 3 plus your hand). It just doesn't impress me. I'm usually more unhappy with a card in my hand mid and late-game than I am with a card on the top if I've had an active Top because with shuffle effects, I'm usually cherrypicking my library anyway.

[Hanni]

But you're spending 3 mana to Top and Predict. So basically it's a less restrictive 2 card TfK

But you'd spend 1 mana to spin Top regardless.

The ideal setting is to have a Top in play, manipulating the top 3, and then munching through the top 3 with Predict so that you can see a new top 3. The Top + Predict draw engine may only net +1 CA per Predict, but the card quality gained is huge.

Predict just happens to fit into most of the current blue based shells because they are already running the cards that Predict needs to be effective. TfK requires running alot of artifacts, and there are only a few decks that can make effective use out of the card (like Faerie Stompy).

[Pastorofmuppets]

It's an uncommon from Odyssey, don't hold your breath.

Standstill.

[Shawn]

Some pros ran Predict in a deck similar to Hanni's at the St. Louis 5k, but that was when Mystical was still legal. It looked pretty solid, but I haven't tested Predict so I can't comment on it's effectiveness.


The situationalness is very different. Standstill requires for you to be winning to draw cards

Not really, if you're playing landstill all you need is an open board or sometimes a Factory or Decree to make Standstill live against non-Vial decks. This is easy to accomplish with a deck such as landstill, as they run tons of removal, and non-Vial decks tend to run fewer creatures.

[SpikeyMikey]

Standstill was good when it was a solid turn 2 drop on the play. Vial made it significantly worse and SDT made it just bad in half your matchups. These days it's too slow and situational everywhere except Fish or Faeries and even then most people have found better things to run.

[Hanni]

Not really, if you're playing landstill all you need is an open board or sometimes a Factory or Decree to make Standstill live against non-Vial decks. This is easy to accomplish with a deck such as landstill, as they run tons of removal, and non-Vial decks tend to run fewer creatures.

If you are staring down an early game Nactal without a Swords in hand, you cannot draw cards with Standstill to draw into an answer.

If your opponent sticks an early game Vial, you can no longer drop Standstill.

On a clean board, i.e as the control player, you are in a winning position, yes you can drop Standstill because you have Factories, Decrees, and possibly Dustbowl/Wasteland.

The problem is that you cannot cast it on a board that isn't clean, unless you have control over it (Mishra's in play to block/trade with Nacatl).

The problem is that there are too many times when you need to draw cards from your card drawing spell so that you can clean the board.

I've played Landstill for a very long time, and I know how good Standstill used to be. The format has changed since then, and Standstill just isn't as good as it used to be. The only way to still get mileage out of Standstill in a control deck is to fill it with cards like Mishra's Factory and Decree of Justice, which are woefully underpowered cards in the current Legacy format. Thopter Foundry + Sword of the Meek, Elspeth, and Jace TMS, to name a few, are all much stronger win conditions. Why play subpar win conditions to try and utilize a conditional 2 mana draw 3, when there are clearly better options out there?

Predict fits right into most blue control shells without any tuning, and only mild tuning for the rest. It doesn't require subpar cards to make it functional, which means you can run the strongest win conditions that control decks currently have available to them. I run a 2/2 split of Jace TMS and Elspeth, with 0 Factories and 0 Decree's, for example.

Standstill is still decent in decks like Merfolk, but it's just not good enough for control decks anymore. No one realized this when Landstill fell from DTB status, and hasn't done much since?

[dahcmai]

It's never been bad, what are you people bothering to talk about it for? It's always been a card of finesse. I love it. Wait, I have 8 foils of it, feel free to discuss and talk about how awesome it is.

Seriously, it's quite good. Always has been. When building decks with a pile of manipulation it always comes up in my thoughts. You need quite a bit to make sure you get both cards every time. Cantrips are for lazy people.

[DragoFireheart]

Agreed, and it's too bad that I didn't start playtesting with the card until only about a month before it got banned. Predict is still savage without Mystical Tutor around, though.


No worries: predict can throughly kick the shit out of Counter-Top Thopter decks that are too reliant on Enlightened Tutor.

[Rico Suave]

Predict is a fine card. In a deck built to use it the card is rarely dead for long, and while it's not amazing it's certainly not terrible either. I think in the end there are a few problems with it that will prevent it from being a top tiered card drawer, but it is still serviceable in a number of situations. Here are a few problems I have with the card, though this is not all-inclusive:

Let's start with Brainstorm. No longer can I shuffle away 2 cards with Brainstorm, but instead I must settle for a sub-optimal use of the card by only shuffling away 1 card and being forced to redraw one of the cards I put back. I'm not a big fan of making my Brainstorms weaker in order to support a card that isn't really that good in the first place. Also, the card can make for awkward timing because frequently it is better to wait on a Brainstorm for later - but Predict forces us to use Brainstorm earlier than we might otherwise like to do so.

Going further, Ponder can help set-up the Predict but this has two inherent problems. The first is that we have to strongly question whether we want to play Ponder in the first place. Ponder isn't bad or anything, but it does not fit into every list. And if Ponder isn't optimal for the deck but gets stuffed in anyway because of Predict, that is a drawback we should be aware of. The second problem with Ponder is similar to Brainstorm. With proper use of fetchlands we can manipulate exactly what we want to draw out of the top 3, but with Predict we are forced into drawing 2 of the cards we see with Ponder even if we don't want both of them. And if we ever choose to shuffle with Ponder, it's not setting up Predict anymore.

I'm not going to discuss the interaction between Jace and Predict. I think an active Jace can make Mountain Goat a good card.

[AngryTroll]

I've always liked Predict, but the problem is that it gets added after 4 Brainstorm, 4 Top, and some number of Ponders. At that point, you start running light on slots for the rest of your deck--that's at least 14ish cards, plus 17 or 18 land. Not to defend Standstill, but at least you can run that to supplement Brainstorm and some number of Tops, not Brainstorm, Tops, and Ponder.

There are lists where you can support Predict. There are also lists where there isn't room for it, and the deck would rather run Ponders.

[Arsenal]

If I'm manipulating the top of my library with Jace/Brainstorm/Top, I'd rather just play Treasure Hunt.

[DragoFireheart]

If I'm manipulating the top of my library with Jace/Brainstorm/Top, I'd rather just play Treasure Hunt.

Treasure Hunt isn't an instant, it can't draw more than one bomb, it can't get rid of dead draws and it can't fuck over Counter-Top Thopter decks that use tutors or Doomsday decks.

[Pastorofmuppets]

Treasure Hunt isn't an instant, it can't draw more than one bomb, it can't get rid of dead draws and it can't fuck over Counter-Top Thopter decks that use tutors or Doomsday decks.

Also, it doesn't have Rebecca Guay art.

[SpikeyMikey]

Rico: I think most of the time Ponder is superior to Brainstorm. The only deck I'd want to run Brainstorm in is Countertop variants and even then I'd want a full set of Ponders before I added Brainstorm. Why? Because Ponder shuffles, making it an excellent interaction with Top. Brainstorm's interaction with Top is less than spectacular to say the least. The only time where I would rather have 'storm is if I don't have SDT but I have a must counter spell and can't rely on a blind CB or if I were playing NOPRO and had Prog in hand. The rest of the time, Ponder is vastly superior. If I have to find a specific card and I don't like the top 3 I'm stuck on draws for several turns until I find a shuffle. Ponder having the shuffle built in is invaluable.

[chokin]

I think that Predict is an interesting "replacement" for Standstill in control. Sometimes you just can't cast Standstill, but you can always use Predict. In the deck I'm working on (which is kind of a Planeswalker/Thopter hybrid) I'm trying out the 4/4/4 Top, BS, Predict. With the couple of Jace TM in there, Predict is very easy to set up. If you're not trying to hide a card on top of your library, that extra mana spent setting it up is mana you'd use anyway trying to carve a stronger hand.

@SpikeyMikey - Ponder is a really strong cantrip, but sometimes when you have a hand with extra junk, being able to draw 3, put 2 junky cards on top and fetch to shuffle is better than looking at 3, maybe getting one, or shuffling and getting a random card. They have different functions in my mind. Ponder is probably a bit better when you have a strong hand. And yes, it does have synergy with Top for being an extra shuffle. Brainstorm makes your hand stronger when it isn't the greatest, which in turn makes Ponder better.

@Arsenal - Treasure Hunt in modern control seems kinda bad. The only time it seems like it could be good is if you had a good mana base down and knew you had at least 2 lands on top (Jace, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top). But you're still drawing at least two cards you don't really need and getting one possibly relevant card all at sorcery speed.

[Hanni]

@Arsenal - Treasure Hunt in modern control seems kinda bad. The only time it seems like it could be good is if you had a good mana base down and knew you had at least 2 lands on top (Jace, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top). But you're still drawing at least two cards you don't really need and getting one possibly relevant card all at sorcery speed.

It's good in a deck built around it, like CAB Jace TMS (I think that's what it's called). That decks runs nearly 30 lands, and some of its lands function as spells (like Maze of Ith). In that case, Treasure Hunt is good. For all other control decks though (22-25 lands), Treasure Hunt isn't going to be as effective. Predict is a much easier fit into decks like that.

[Whit3 Ghost]

Rico: I think most of the time Ponder is superior to Brainstorm. The only deck I'd want to run Brainstorm in is Countertop variants and even then I'd want a full set of Ponders before I added Brainstorm. Why? Because Ponder shuffles, making it an excellent interaction with Top. Brainstorm's interaction with Top is less than spectacular to say the least. The only time where I would rather have 'storm is if I don't have SDT but I have a must counter spell and can't rely on a blind CB or if I were playing NOPRO and had Prog in hand. The rest of the time, Ponder is vastly superior. If I have to find a specific card and I don't like the top 3 I'm stuck on draws for several turns until I find a shuffle. Ponder having the shuffle built in is invaluable.
Brainstorm's ability to put multiple cards in your hand combined with its ability to react to your opponent is far more relevant.

Also, Hanni, clear your PMs.

[Mon,Goblin Chief]

It's good in a deck built around it, like CAB Jace TMS (I think that's what it's called). That decks runs nearly 30 lands, and some of its lands function as spells (like Maze of Ith). In that case, Treasure Hunt is good. For all other control decks though (22-25 lands), Treasure Hunt isn't going to be as effective. Predict is a much easier fit into decks like that.

Nearly got the name right ;) CAB JaceTM (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?17986-CAB-JaceTM).
Treasure Hunt hits an expected value of 1.8 cards per blind cast once you have 27 lands in a 60 card deck. At that point you will rarely just cycle it even when cast blind. If you have setup like Tops or Brainstorm, it will usually end up putting you ahead at least three cards (my average is somewhere around 3.5 cards per Hunt I think).
That implies that making a lot of landdrops is valuable to the deck in question, though, as otherwise you'll simply be drawing dead lands. To mitigate this, you can run spell-lands (Maze, Mishra, Tolaria West, Wasteland, etc) and/or cards that will let you turn those drawn lands into business (Forbid, Scroll Rack, Seismic Assault, Jace, etc). Top and Brainstorm as enablers are particularly good in this context as resetting your Top makes Hunt produce additional advantage and Brainstorm can turn those drawn lands into real cards, too, instead of being only valuable as setup beforehand. All this means, though, that Treasure Hunt needs a deck built in a very particular way to become a card with an incredible powerlevel.

Predict is not all that powerful, it puts you up one card compared to the opponent. What makes it an excellent card is not its powerlevel but its ease of use. To set it up, all you need is some way to know the top card of one players library. Decks interested in actual carddraw should usually already be running Brainstorm and some number of Tops, meaning the necessary setup is already provided even without considering Predicts requirements. This is huge! It means you have to make barely any sacrifices in the flow of your game or the way your deck is built to run Predict
Once the setting up is taken care of Predict becomes basically U1 - Instant - draw 2 cards. That card would be a staple in almost any blue deck I can imagine. Not because drawing two cards for one is so powerful that your opponent loses to your card advantage, but because you gain so much deck velocity by being able to cheaply move cards into your hand. The short term card-burst makes it more likely to survive the early game while hitting landdrops and allows for your actual card-advantage bombs to come online faster and with far greater consistency. Whereas Treasure Hunt represents raw power in itself, Predict facilitates reaching a point were the rest of your deck can simply take over (this presupposes your deck is interested in taking over the game with powerful spells with a comparatively high cost, though, meaning Predict is only really good in something aiming to win later in the game, aka control decks).

[Hanni]

@ Mon, Goblin Chief

You pretty much hit the nail on the head, but I also want to point out that Predict isn't just a 1U Draw 2 Cards. It has card quality built in, since it puts your worst card (or your opponent's best card) into the graveyard. This may seem negligible at first, but after playing with Predict for a while, that aspect becomes very noticeable.

[Arsenal]

chokin, hanni, mon, yes, I was thinking of Treasure Hunt in a control shell able to maximize it's usefulness, as you all laid out in detail.

[Rico Suave]

Rico: I think most of the time Ponder is superior to Brainstorm. The only deck I'd want to run Brainstorm in is Countertop variants and even then I'd want a full set of Ponders before I added Brainstorm. Why? Because Ponder shuffles, making it an excellent interaction with Top. Brainstorm's interaction with Top is less than spectacular to say the least. The only time where I would rather have 'storm is if I don't have SDT but I have a must counter spell and can't rely on a blind CB or if I were playing NOPRO and had Prog in hand. The rest of the time, Ponder is vastly superior. If I have to find a specific card and I don't like the top 3 I'm stuck on draws for several turns until I find a shuffle. Ponder having the shuffle built in is invaluable.

I have to strongly disagree with nearly everything you said here.

To quote someone much better than myself:

"You've cast Brainstorm, right? And it resolved?"

[theorigionalzombiekilla]

The idea that standstill is only good when you are winning is false, because "winning" is not an actual game state. Having superior board posistion is the correct way to express this idea, and that advantage switches between players throught a typical match. Just because you have a better board for a turn does not mean you are necessairly winning. The next turn anything could happen to change that and the game can be taken from you. Standstill is strong because you play it on a turn where you have that board posistion and it forces your opponent to either allow that advantage to stand, or break it, thus giving you a huge card advantage which then increases your ability to retake that posistion again. Standstill is a great card in certain decks and just because it sometimes is awkward in no way means it isn't strong.

[Shawn]

If you are staring down an early game Nactal without a Swords in hand, you cannot draw cards with Standstill to draw into an answer.

You're making it look like Swords is the only answer to Nacatl, Explosives, Factory, Force, and Path all handle it as well.

Also, if they have turn one Nacatl and you're playing Predict, you aren't going to draw two off it until turn three unless you Brainstorm turn one. And since you tapped two lands for Predict, you can't kill it until turn four unless you find Swords or Path, and by that time the Nacatl has easily served his purpose. Standstill isn't a good answer to a Nacatl if you can't answer it, but Predict is bad in this situation as well.


Standstill is still decent in decks like Merfolk, but it's just not good enough for control decks anymore. No one realized this when Landstill fell from DTB status, and hasn't done much since?

Landstill decks continue to make top eights, just not at the frequency they used to, due to the increase in popularity of decks it has a negative matchup with. Wafo Tapa and Geoff Smelksi have proven it's still a viable strategy.

[alderon666]

You're making it look like Swords is the only answer to Nacatl, Explosives, Factory, Force, and Path all handle it as well.

Also, if they have turn one Nacatl and you're playing Predict, you aren't going to draw two off it until turn three unless you Brainstorm turn one. And since you tapped two lands for Predict, you can't kill it until turn four unless you find Swords or Path, and by that time the Nacatl has easily served his purpose. Standstill isn't a good answer to a Nacatl if you can't answer it, but Predict is bad in this situation as well.



Landstill decks continue to make top eights, just not at the frequency they used to, due to the increase in popularity of decks it has a negative matchup with. Wafo Tapa and Geoff Smelksi have proven it's still a viable strategy.

Yeah, that's the main difference between Standstill and Predict. For Standstill to be any good you need to cast it as soon as possible, otherwise it's probably dead unless you're playing Deed or something. With Predict you don't HAVE to cast at a given time. It actually gets better as the game goes, because of it's filtering/CA.

Predict can actually help you find the answer, where Standstill is just dead to a turn 1 Nactl.

[Hanni]

You're making it look like Swords is the only answer to Nacatl, Explosives, Factory, Force, and Path all handle it as well.

Ok, let me fix that then. If you don't have an answer to turn 1 Nacatl, you can't use Standstill to find an answer.

If they are on the play and you waste a Force on turn 1 Nacatl, and then they drop a couple more guys on turn 2, not only will Standstill not draw you cards to find an answer, but you're also going to be low on gas because of the Force.

It's not just turn 1 Nacatl that renders Standstill useless. It's any board presence from the opponent, whether that's a turn 1 Vial from Merfolk, turn 1 Noble Hierarch against Bant, etc. Hierarch vs Bant might seem less important because drawing a Factory can circumvent it, but before then, the Bant player is getting easy damage in, and if they play Wasteland, you're at the disadvantage.


Also, if they have turn one Nacatl and you're playing Predict, you aren't going to draw two off it until turn three unless you Brainstorm turn one. And since you tapped two lands for Predict, you can't kill it until turn four unless you find Swords or Path, and by that time the Nacatl has easily served his purpose. Standstill isn't a good answer to a Nacatl if you can't answer it, but Predict is bad in this situation as well.

If I don't have an answer to a turn 1 Nacatl in hand, I'm going to be spending my turns digging for an answer. At which point, if I had a Predict and I had a way to figure out the top card of my library, I'd most certainly use it. Turn 1 Brainstorm, turn 2 Predict? Sure.

I agree, Predict isn't good in that situation either, because it's not intended to be used during the early game. During the early game, the control deck doesn't need to draw cards, unless it needs to dig for an answer. Otherwise, it just needs to hold a defensive while it makes land drops. Predict is best at turn 3 and later, where you can hold mana open for Counterspell's and whatnot, and then Predict eot if you have nothing else better to do. It's really good during the midgame if you're low on gas.


Landstill decks continue to make top eights, just not at the frequency they used to, due to the increase in popularity of decks it has a negative matchup with. Wafo Tapa and Geoff Smelksi have proven it's still a viable strategy.


Geoff has also been playing the deck since 2005 (maybe even before that), so I'd argue that most of his wins are from superior playskill.

I'm not saying Landstill doesn't make Top 8's, control in general is still really good. That doesn't mean that Landstill isn't outdated and behind the times. Every deck in the format that existed back in 2005 has either radically evolved, or became obsolete. Many current Landstill lists look exactly like they did in 2005.

Landstill is a control deck that runs a conditional, but powerful draw spell, and requires the deck to run suboptimal cards (Factory/Decree) in order to get a functional use out of it. Predict fits directly into most blue based control decks with minor to no tweaking, is a much less conditional draw spell, and allows you to run cards that are alot more efficient than Factory and Decree. This is evolution.