[SCD] Preordain, post MT ban

[median]

I realize this has been done prior to Preordain being released but I want to evaluate the card from the point of view of a combo player that now lacks the shuffle effect of mystical tutor. It’s important to note that as a combo player you will have a mana base that has fewer fetches than a aggro control list might, and shuffle effects are found in other places than 6-8 fetch lands.
I also want to say that I’ve always appreciated ponder, but I feel that it still needs a shuffle effect to have any superiority over serum visions/sleight of hand. This hasn’t really been a problem in any deck I’ve played because having 10-12 shuffle effects is a by-product of making a combo deck.
However, with out that many, ponder will often show you one card you can use, and two cards you can’t forcing you to draw into crap or shuffle and hope for better. This has caused me to overvalue ponder at times. With the blind shuffle effect praying on my hopes and occasionally costing me.
Preordain really solves all of this, it’s like a ponder with a built in shuffle effect, more than that, if I brainstorm on turn two and can’t shuffle, I can play a preordain and get rid of the two useless cards left behind from the brainstorm. Then draw a card.
There aren’t a huge number of combo decks running 8+ cantrips. DD fetch tendrils and T.E.S. are the main ones.
In both of these I would advocate Preordain over ponder. Here’s a list with preordain.

DD T.E.S. hybrid With preordain:

1 swamp
4 City of Brass
2 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island
4 polluted delta
1 island

3 doomsday
1 meditate
1 wipe away
4 Dark Ritual
4 Lion’s Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Chrome Mox
4 Burning Wish
4 Brainstorm
4 Preordain
3 Infernal Tutor
3 thoughtseize
4 Duress
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 ill-gotten gains

//SB
1 infernal tutor
1 Ill-Gotten Gains
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Empty the Warrens
1 cabal therapy
1 pyroclasm
4 leyline of the void
1 Eye of Nowhere
1 emrakul, the aeons torn
1 shelldock isle
1 cloud of faeries
1 doomsday

In my own play testing I’ve been happy with preordain, and I intend to debut a list at a few mox tourneys in the later half of this month.

Your thoughts are appreciated.

[Fry]

I've got a friend who runs a Dream Halls deck and he prefers Preordain to Ponder simply for the ability to put unwanted cards on the bottom instead of drawing one good card and two bad ones afterwards. Also since his deck runs so many cantrips and cards that dig like Intuition, the ability to be rid of sub-optimal cards is key.

[sam.]

In my own experience, if you're running enough fetchlands, as in DDFT, Ponder is essentially the same as Preordain, except that it can also shuffle all three unwanted cards (look at the top 3, find a good one, crack fetch).

But with the TES list you posted it looks like Preordain is better.

[median]

Thats my thinking, decks like TES should be running Preordain. I like it in DDFT also, since you can use it as a pseudo shuffle effect for your tops, although I haven't played a huge amount with that deck.
But yeah, Fry summed up my thinking.

[Bryant Cook]

Ponder is better in every single way, it LITERALLY has a built in shuffle effect. It sees a card deeper too, which is more important with a combo deck.

[Dark Ritual]

The problem with ponder in combo is that shuffling your deck after seeing your top 3 are crap is that you get an absolutely random deck with no knowledge of how the cards are stacked and a random card besides which could be one of the cards you wanted to 'shuffle' away or you draw a card that was worse than your top 3 cards. I haven't tested preordain in TES but it holds promise. And there is always the downside to ponder of seeing 2 crap cards and 1 good card because sure you get the good card but then you have to draw the other 2 crap cards unless you have a shuffle effect. With preordain you can put a crap card on the bottom and leave the good one on top or if they are both crap cards due to you brainstorming of something or luck you can put both on the bottom and probably draw a good card.

[Phoenix Ignition]

The problem with ponder in combo is that shuffling your deck after seeing your top 3 are crap is that you get an absolutely random deck with no knowledge of how the cards are stacked and a random card besides which could be one of the cards you wanted to 'shuffle' away or you draw a card that was worse than your top 3 cards. I haven't tested preordain in TES but it holds promise. And there is always the downside to ponder of seeing 2 crap cards and 1 good card because sure you get the good card but then you have to draw the other 2 crap cards unless you have a shuffle effect. With preordain you can put a crap card on the bottom and leave the good one on top or if they are both crap cards due to you brainstorming of something or luck you can put both on the bottom and probably draw a good card.

There is such a lack of logic in this post. You say that if there are 3 bad cards on top shuffling with ponder is bad because you get a random (possibly bad) card back? Well if there were 3 bad cards on top and you use preordain to put 2 on the bottom, you still have the random next card that you draw. Ponder lets you see 4 cards total when you're digging, preordain lets you see 3. Preordain's only benefit is when you see a good card and a bad card so you can draw only the good card, but combo generally seems to need to dig for a specific card instead of a string of cards to go off, making ponder better.

[Ciberon]

The problem with ponder in combo is that shuffling your deck after seeing your top 3 are crap is that you get an absolutely random deck with no knowledge of how the cards are stacked and a random card besides which could be one of the cards you wanted to 'shuffle' away or you draw a card that was worse than your top 3 cards. I haven't tested preordain in TES but it holds promise. And there is always the downside to ponder of seeing 2 crap cards and 1 good card because sure you get the good card but then you have to draw the other 2 crap cards unless you have a shuffle effect. With preordain you can put a crap card on the bottom and leave the good one on top or if they are both crap cards due to you brainstorming of something or luck you can put both on the bottom and probably draw a good card.

But if you are shuffling after seeing your top 3, that means the third card is no good, and that's what you'd get with Preordain in that situation.

[median]

You usually shuffle with ponder because you see two bad cards that you cant afford to draw into. If you're using the cantrip to find just one card then ponder is miles better. The reason I like Preordain is I can fix my draws instead of being left with two dead draws and one good card.