Card Valuation - Playability

[Misplayer]

Here are some questions I’ve been turning over in my head recently:

1. Why is the valuation (in terms of playability, not dollars) of cards in Legacy so inconsistent? In other words, some cards are good and widely adopted upon unbanning/release, others take years to be valued by the masses.
2. Why is it so difficult to buck conventional wisdom about cards, or the optimal number of cards in a deck?
3. What can we do as a community to improve the efficiency and accuracy of card valuation in Legacy?

Food for thought:
- Cards like Knight of the Reliquary have gradually become staple beaters in a variety of decks making Top 16 appearances in 2011 SCG 5ks (Junk, Bant, Zoo, Taxes). How did we get here and what took us so long to realize that this is a really good card?
- Decks with <4 Tarmogoyf with impressive finishes, notably Eli’s deck. How many of us would have considered <4 Goyf in anything 2 months ago (I wouldn’t have)?
- Cards like Predict were really good (in the ol’ days of Threshold), then rarely played, now being discussed again. I would guess this is largely due to metagame shifts, but for a few years it seems like Predict had completely fallen off the radar.

Possible explanations for #1:
- Metagame shifts, bannings/unbannings, new sets/cards – these are the obvious ones that probably don’t warrant a ton of discussion.
- New decks with top finishes that demonstrate the maximum value of a previously underappreciated card (e.g. New Horizons --> Knight of the Reliquary; Team America --> Tombstalker)
- A lot of excellent deckbuilders/teams often don’t run to the internet with their latest tech or archetype. Then it places in an event or two and the rest of us say “I guess that card/deck/interaction actually IS good…” or “I hadn’t even considered running that…”

Possible suggestions for #3:
- Extensive, documented and shared testing: The best deck development discussions seem to center around members sharing their experiences with certain cards/builds with detail surrounding their findings.
- Open-mindedness: This is a tough one and I’m not indicting The Source as a group of closed-minded know-it-alls, but there are way too many completely unproductive discussions about deck construction. It goes both ways too. Classic example:

“Guys, I tested Questing Phelddagrif and it is the nut high in the current metagame”
“Seems bad.”
“Did you test it? Just test it. You’ll see.”
“Well if your opponent plays Cards A,B,C…Y,Z, then your boned, so I don’t see how it’s good.”
“Seriously, go test it.”


So what do you guys think?

[Nessaja]

On KotR, it's similar to Green Sun's Zenith. You need to find a balance on toolbox cards and the rest of your deck. KotR became much better when the right land toolbox was found with Karakas, Wasteland, Horizon Canopy etc. During that time, there was a large need for Karakas because of Iona, so it pretty became popular because there was a need for it in the metagame. Then people got better with it.

A similar card that also falls in this category is Stoneforge Mystic, which also took a while to lift off in standard. Cards that can tutor or offer card advantage just take a while to evaluate correctly I guess.

The <4 Tarmogoyfs reall surprised me as well. I want to reserve judgement on it because - even though it won a tournament, I'm not convinced it's the right way to go. But still, that it's possible to run less then 4 Goyfs has everything to do with the printing of strong cards by Wizards and apparently metagame shifts.

Some cards also become hot/not depending on the speed of the format. Sort of the metagame but I remember back when Vengivival was the DTB, I had to make my deck much more glass cannon (and with that sacrifice midgame potential) to keep up with the speed.

[Justin]

Part of the answer might have to do with the threats in the format and what people run in their sideboards. When Knight of the Reliquary was first printed, it seemed that a lot more people were playing Relic of Progenitus and Tormod's Crypt in their sideboards. Aggro Loam and Ichorid were arround more and sideboards were more dedicated to stopping them.

Also, an more importantly, the printing of Legendary bombs, such as Emrakul and others made Karakas a better card. Knight is important because it can fetch Karakas (as well as Maze of Ith, Wasteland, etc.). When Knight was first printed, Legacy players did not use Karakas to bounce opposing legends. It was largely just used in D&T to bounce their own Mangara. Now you see a lot of lists with Knights and a single Karakas to protect against Show and Tell decks, which were not arround when Knight first made its debut.

[2Rach]

Many reasons.

Some cards needed to be printed to make them viable. Knight was a $2-3 card before the Zen fetches popped up(Standard having a bigger impact on price than Legacy). Dark Depths was a $1-2 junk rare before Vampire Hexmage.

The 2 Goyfs was a mistake imo, and was only one top 8. For instance, the deck had 2 Jittes for which Tarmogoyf covers the same matchups and more while being dead less. Tarmogoyf is good against Tribal, but also Countertop and different combo decks. And it can actually finish the game on its own.

Meta shifts have to do with a lot of it. Like Justin's explanation of Karakas.

Then there's just ignorance. When KotR was first being tested in Legacy decks I knew it was decent, but until I actually started playing it did I really understand how nuts it is.

[(nameless one)]

I remember when Tarmogoyfs used to be $4 each. When Stoneforge Mystics were $2 each.

This is why I bought a playset of Green Sun's Zeniths right away before I missed out on that boat.

BTW, I remember going through the jank bins during Lorwyn days to see if theres any way it could help my Merfolk deck (it used to build it as the Static Orb/Opposition lock deck) and seeing a lot of Natural Order for a dollar each.

Just last December, I remember seeing a set of Time Spiral for $5 each and Peacekeeper for a dollar each. Now check their prices.

Anyways, I guess the moral of the story is if you feel like you can build something from that jank rare, try picking it up. You'll never know. Also, don't trade anything. I've given up on trading, now I just hold on to whatever cards I need. You'll never know when you'll use them.

I mean the next big thing could be Artificer's Intuition for all you know!

[troopatroop]

I would love to hear Eli's response to the 2 Goyfs, I too wondered how he justified it. Knight was first paired alongside Grim Lavamancer in Zoo. The raw power of the deck allowed people to do it, but it doesn't make Knight really shine. New Horizons opened my eyes.

[chinEsE girl]

For those wondering as to why eli only ran 2 goyfs in his junk list, I'll let everyone in on his thinking. I was asked him why after we were done with the top 8, and he said it was only the 3rd best creature in his deck, behind dark confidant and KotR. He then said it might even be worse then mother of runes, and he liked pridemage a lot too. Bottom line, goyf was just a highly efficient dude, while every other creature in his deck actively does something aside from attacking and blocking.

[Tammit67]

I would love to hear Eli's response to the 2 Goyfs, I too wondered how he justified it. Knight was first paired alongside Grim Lavamancer in Zoo. The raw power of the deck allowed people to do it, but it doesn't make Knight really shine. New Horizons opened my eyes.

You could have read his report. Would have beena good place to look.

[.nemesis]

- Cards like Predict were really good (in the ol’ days of Threshold), then rarely played, now being discussed again. I would guess this is largely due to metagame shifts, but for a few years it seems like Predict had completely fallen off the radar.


I've been told (entering the format about 2 years ago) that card advantage doesn't win games in Legacy, because the format in general is too fast to have it be of any relevance. Today I know there are lots of those mantras out there, which are simply wrong, but people believe in them nonetheless. In my experience, you can not believe anyone who uses "accepted facts" or stuff along those words as an argument instead of solid reasoning. It's better to think for yourself anyway and makes you a better deck designer.

[sco0ter]

I remember when Tarmogoyfs used to be $4 each. When Stoneforge Mystics were $2 each.


Oh yes :) I bought the Mystics for 2 EUR and now they are 13. Is it mainly due to Standard demand? Should I sell them before they rotate out of T2?



I mean the next big thing could be Artificer's Intuition for all you know!

Yes, I was working on a deck with it and Dreadnoughts, but wasn't really impressed by now. I believe, the only thing that is missing, is an Artifact Squee. But I remember there were some approches with Grindstones and Locket of Yesterdays/Sensei, too. Time to break that card :).

[GradStudentGuy]

Yes, I was working on a deck with it and Dreadnoughts, but wasn't really impressed by now. I believe, the only thing that is missing, is an Artifact Squee. But I remember there were some approches with Grindstones and Locket of Yesterdays/Sensei, too. Time to break that card :).

Artificer's Intuition workes very well with an active goblin welder in my testing. You just need a little set up time with 0 CMC artifacts.

[sco0ter]

Yes I tested it with Goblin Welder too. I wanted it to play like Welder Survival, but it didn't, because you basically can only tutor for Dreadnoughts, which then still require Stifle. Therefore, sometimes it wasn't worth tutoring them up and Artificer's Intuition was quite useless because other target like Needle or Relic are too situative.

If you have a decklist, I would be glad to post it here or pm me ;-)

[Beatusnox]

Here are some questions I’ve been turning over in my head recently:

Food for thought:
- Cards like Predict were really good (in the ol’ days of Threshold), then rarely played, now being discussed again. I would guess this is largely due to metagame shifts, but for a few years it seems like Predict had completely fallen off the radar.


Predict is a solid card, and with Control decks Like Countertop Walker out there, it is more and more powerful. Being able to fateseal your opponent,
and then Predict is a pretty powerful thing especially if its a card they could tutor for and ruin your day with on top.

Beyond that, as the meta rotates and new cards are made, some older cards that just lacked the support needed to be as powerful as they are now are finally getting support.