[Premium Article]The Mental Misstep Matchup: Realistic Results for Realistic People

[KrzyMoose]

http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/legacy/21786_The_Mental_Misstep_Matchup_Realistic_Results_For_Realistic_People.html


Ari Lax playtested a variety of different top-tier Legacy matchups with Mental Misstep. Is Mental Misstep the true messianic card that will strike combo down? Or an overhyped do-nothing spell? Real results inside.

Ari makes some valid points. I tend to agree that MM is definitely not the super-mega-ultra game changer that people make it out to be.

[mrjumbo03]

Boo for being premium!haha Anyone care to break down all his points?

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

From their forums;


I feel like High Tide cares way less about Mental Misstep than people seem to think. It's better than Spell Pierce/Daze, but not by much. It won't affect overall matchup percentages in that regard since it's going to be a straight replacement.

Head, meet desk.

[Final Fortune]

From their forums;



Head, meet desk.

No kidding, anybody who's actually tested High Tide vs. Mental Misstep knows that counter is the difference between a game win and a game loss, it's way, Way, WAY better than Daze or Spell Pierce in that match up.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

No kidding, anybody who's actually tested High Tide vs. Mental Misstep knows that counter is the difference between a game win and a game loss, it's way, Way, WAY better than Daze or Spell Pierce in that match up.

I mean also it's not a "straight replacement" for counters in non-blue decks.

[Forbiddian]

I did like this one:





Simply put, not much changed. The key thing Mental Misstep was supposed to accomplish against Storm was to protect your Forces from their Duresses, as they can't usually win through an in-hand Force.... Spell Pierce was also similarly effective in the role of stopping Duress, as Storm could rarely produce the two extra mana to pay for their discard spell in the early setup turns.

Yes, because the main difference between a 0 CMC counterspell and a 1 CMC counterspell is that with Spell Pierce, you can pay 2 to get around it. O.o. Merfolk is quite a bit faster if it can tap out every turn, and Merfolk's problem was never "get enough gas to win," it was always "get the gas in your hand onto the table in time."

If your analysis of Mental Misstep doesn't start with the word 'tempo' ur doin it wrong, because THAT'S why it's good, not because it's a reliable counter to Duress (lmfao).

[AriLax]

I did like this one:





Yes, because the main difference between a 0 CMC counterspell and a 1 CMC counterspell is that with Spell Pierce, you can pay 2 to get around it. O.o. Merfolk is quite a bit faster if it can tap out every turn, and Merfolk's problem was never "get enough gas to win," it was always "get the gas in your hand onto the table in time."

If your analysis of Mental Misstep doesn't start with the word 'tempo' ur doin it wrong, because THAT'S why it's good, not because it's a reliable counter to Duress (lmfao).

You sound like someone who has never played the matchup against a real list/player but who has played Merfolk. Let me tell you how it works.

You are correct that the issue for Merfolk is dealing lethal before Storm can just kill them. However, current Storm is more than capable of doing this through anything but a large voltron of taxing counters or you still having a Force of Will when they have to go off. Spell Pierce helped with the first and was fine at stopping Duresses on the second. Mental Misstep is much worse at helping the first but better at the second.

[Finn]

Agreed on that point. The ability for Merfolk to tap out on turn one for Aether Vial (and really every turn to some degree) is what that deck is all about. That's why Cursecatcher is so good. Every game that Merfolk starts with full access to its offense and counters on turn one is really hard to beat. Any card that makes this happen more often is bound to warp the game even further in Merfolk's favor.

[AriLax]

Agreed on that point. The ability for Merfolk to tap out on turn one for Aether Vial (and really every turn to some degree) is what that deck is all about. That's why Cursecatcher is so good. Every game that Merfolk starts with full access to its offense and counters on turn one is really hard to beat. Any card that makes this happen more often is bound to warp the game even further in Merfolk's favor.

Against anything but Storm, you are 100% correct. The quote he is pulling, however, is about how Mental Misstep compares to Spell Pierce against Dark Rituals.

[Finn]

Actually I am sure you are right. I often punt against freakin TES. What I really need to do is play TES for awhile if I want to correct my technique.

[Koby]

Actually I am sure you are right. I often punt against freakin TES. What I really need to do is play TES for awhile if I want to correct my technique.

Best way to learn how to beat a deck: join the ranks!

[Forbiddian]

You sound like someone who has never played the matchup against a real list/player but who has played Merfolk. Let me tell you how it works.

You are correct that the issue for Merfolk is dealing lethal before Storm can just kill them. However, current Storm is more than capable of doing this through anything but a large voltron of taxing counters or you still having a Force of Will when they have to go off. Spell Pierce helped with the first and was fine at stopping Duresses on the second. Mental Misstep is much worse at helping the first but better at the second.

I'll grant you that I've never played against your very different take on Storm Combo. I've only seen Grim Tutors in Vintage. Though you probably have experience playing it and it might even be better especially against the new metagame, is it's not representative of an average storm list. It reflects pretty poor writing to generalize in your article that your deck is a standin but then to demand everyone have experience with your niche deck when they move to discuss your findings.


The idea here was to get a measurement of how good combo still is in Legacy, or at least Storm.

Your deck seems maybe even half a turn slower than other Storm combo decks with fully 18 filter spells (inc 2 Grim Tutors) and no Chrome Moxen. Against Merfolk, it probably is stronger as Merfolk is extremely strong (even sans MM) at stopping early attempts, but lacks a very fast clock. Your deck is also less (probably not at all in this matchup) vulnerable to wastelands because it only runs 2 colors and only 2 non-basics at that.

These factors make your deck quite a bit stronger than other storm decks at the waiting game, so I hope you understand how much this could distort your analysis. Most storm decks have the ability to go off on turn 2-3 almost all the time. Most storm decks also run Orim's Chant as their primary protective spell.

The nearly mandatory turn 3 hole where Merfolk has to tap out to make a Lord (or else it's clock is a full turn slower) is very exploitable for most other types of storm decks. They almost always try to win on turn 3 or at least throw Chant out as bait (you pretty much have to Force it if you have one or you go crazy-poker-bluff-read-mode, because the threat is very credible), even after a Daze if they just tap 1.


Mental Misstep plugs that hole very nicely because tapping down no longer means shit.

You're correct that my earlier statement was pretty nitpicky, but answering Duress without letting them pay 2 is not the reason why Merfolk players are excited for Mental Misstep over Spell Pierce in the combo matchup.

[AriLax]

I'll grant you that I've never played against your very different take on Storm Combo. I've only seen Grim Tutors in Vintage. Though you probably have experience playing it and it might even be better especially against the new metagame, is it's not representative of an average storm list. It reflects pretty poor writing to generalize in your article that your deck is a standin but then to demand everyone have experience with your niche deck when they move to discuss your findings.

From Starcity results since Survival was banned, I count 2 top 8's and 2 top 16s for Grim Tutor Storm. I count 1 top 8 for TES, and 1 top 8 for UB Storm without Grim Tutor. Admittedly the Grim Tutor results were just 2 players each with a top 16 and Top 8, but still.

I also hardly think I've demanded knowledge, I've merely correct misunderstandings.



Your deck seems maybe even half a turn slower than other Storm combo decks with fully 18 filter spells (inc 2 Grim Tutors) and no Chrome Moxen. Against Merfolk, it probably is stronger as Merfolk is extremely strong (even sans MM) at stopping early attempts, but lacks a very fast clock. Your deck is also less (probably not at all in this matchup) vulnerable to wastelands because it only runs 2 colors and only 2 non-basics at that.

These factors make your deck quite a bit stronger than other storm decks at the waiting game, so I hope you understand how much this could distort your analysis. Most storm decks have the ability to go off on turn 2-3 almost all the time. Most storm decks also run Orim's Chant as their primary protective spell.

The nearly mandatory turn 3 hole where Merfolk has to tap out to make a Lord (or else it's clock is a full turn slower) is very exploitable for most other types of storm decks. They almost always try to win on turn 3 or at least throw Chant out as bait (you pretty much have to Force it if you have one or you go crazy-poker-bluff-read-mode, because the threat is very credible), even after a Daze if they just tap 1.


Mental Misstep plugs that hole very nicely because tapping down no longer means shit.

You're correct that my earlier statement was pretty nitpicky, but answering Duress without letting them pay 2 is not the reason why Merfolk players are excited for Mental Misstep over Spell Pierce in the combo matchup.

1. If by most Storm decks, you mean TES, then yes. However, there has been a large push towards straight UB with Duress disruption. Even the Grim Tutor build kills by turn 3 almost every game.

2. TES is only half a turn faster if you count Empty for 8-14 as kills. The difference is closer if you don't.

3. I still don't understand your point. Is your argument that Mental Misstep makes Orim's Chant even worse than it was?

[Gui]

I believe his argument is that, by not having to keep islands untapped to to cast any of his counters, he'll be able to cast lords 1 turn before he'd be. This should lead to better results against combos in general (even if just slightly better), because of the way merfolks' players will play the matchup (i.e. tapping that mana to play something 1 turn before, and put earlier pressure), not by the way combo player will have to deal with the counterspell.

By what I've seen, your argument is that there's no difference between the two counters for the combo player. Are you saying that, no matter how much pressure the opponent put, the combo player will deal with it the same way, as long as the amount of answers doesn't change? (I'm generalizing combo, this shall be different from combo to combo)

Edit: Also, I do realize that, for example, by having catcher and misstep, Merfolk player will have two answers, when with pierce, he'd have only 1.

[AriLax]

I believe his argument is that, by not having to keep islands untapped to to cast any of his counters, he'll be able to cast lords 1 turn before he'd be. This should lead to better results against combos in general (even if just slightly better), because of the way merfolks' players will play the matchup (i.e. tapping that mana to play something 1 turn before, and put earlier pressure), not by the way combo player will have to deal with the counterspell.

By what I've seen, your argument is that there's no difference between the two counters for the combo player. Are you saying that, no matter how much pressure the opponent put, the combo player will deal with it the same way, as long as the amount of answers doesn't change? (I'm generalizing combo, this shall be different from combo to combo)

Edit: Also, I do realize that, for example, by having catcher and misstep, Merfolk player will have two answers, when with pierce, he'd have only 1.

The problem is Misstep is not a reliable disruption spell at stopping a combo from UB Storm. It only stops four of their sixteen Ritual effects. Storm can just play a bunch of Petals, LEDs, and Cabal Rits and kill you. The card is better off firing at their cantrips or keeping your Force in your hand.