[Article] A Month of Missteps

[Master Shake]

http://www.gatheringmagic.com/a-month-of-missteps/

Bam! There it is. With all kinds of charts, some of them are confusing, but most of them are straight forward. I've got all kinds of data, spreadsheets, some deck lists, and two rabbits coming from a single, wide-brimmed hat.

This is the follow-up to my article on Mental Misstep, it's a bit dry, but any mostly-objective look at a huge data set is going to be. I hope you're able to gain something from it.

[Nessaja]

Interesting analysis. Thanks for all that hard work. I personally feel like the format hasn't reacted to mental misstep at all yet, things are going to change, 1 month is not long enough. I think the true reaction on MM can be seen at the next GP.

[Forbiddian]

A few things:

1) Awesome article.

2) Speaking of the pie chart: I was surprised that with both Ichorid AND ANT taking a hit, you didn't report Combo taking any losses. I assume that's because you included Painter into Combo, but it's really more combo/control. The chart belies the fact that pure combo took a big hit and the metagame shifted a lot more than just some control starting cropping up over aggro/control. Still, I think that chart was one of the best parts of the article -- it showed there is currently a much more diverse metagame.

3) I think everyone would agree with me that the metagame is still adjusting quite a bit. Are you planning to do a repeat article in the next few months that includes only the most recent month or two of data?

[Tacosnape]

I think Mental Misstep has kind of stepped in as the new deputy card for Legacy, policing the gunfights at high noon, while Sheriff Force of Will gets to take a little more time off, spend some more days at the saloon, and reminisce of the days when Legacy was simpler and wasn't described by unnecessary wild west metaphors.

The point I'm trying to make is that Mental Misstep flooding the world isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's everywhere because it's what keeps everything in check, including itself.

[bruizar]

Mental Misstep is the best thing that could have happened to Magic in a very long time. Finally, eternal formats can dive into the cardpool and look for cards that are 4 / 5 mana instead of curving out at 3 with the lone exception of Jace.

Mental Misstep didn't give us another Force of Will. It gave us a gigantic increase in cardpool.

[Master Shake]

A few things

2) Speaking of the pie chart: I was surprised that with both Ichorid AND ANT taking a hit, you didn't report Combo taking any losses. I assume that's because you included Painter into Combo, but it's really more combo/control. The chart belies the fact that pure combo took a big hit and the metagame shifted a lot more than just some control starting cropping up over aggro/control. Still, I think that chart was one of the best parts of the article -- it showed there is currently a much more diverse metagame.

3) I think everyone would agree with me that the metagame is still adjusting quite a bit. Are you planning to do a repeat article in the next few months that includes only the most recent month or two of data?

I do plan on doing a follow up in about 3 months, ideally I would have done one 3-4 months before MMS came out, but that wasn't really something I knew I needed to do.

I did include U/R Painter as a strict combo deck, I don't feel it's combo-control the way that NO RUG is (which I counted under Aggro-Control anyway.) Other combo decks did take a dive, but you can actually see the relative changes in Ritual effects (which counts Storm and Belcher pretty well) and look at the spreadsheet for a the change in Dredge's performance to get a feel for where we're at. There are a few more represented (much larger card pool) than there were before but that doesn't account for much. The spreadsheets are available so you can draw your own conclusions if you have the time. I, for one, had far too much time.

[Forbiddian]

Mental Misstep is the best thing that could have happened to Magic in a very long time. Finally, eternal formats can dive into the cardpool and look for cards that are 4 / 5 mana instead of curving out at 3 with the lone exception of Jace.

Mental Misstep didn't give us another Force of Will. It gave us a gigantic increase in cardpool.

Did you read the article, dude?

One of the most interesting conclusions is that Mental Misstep hardly changed the average curve at all. The only shifts are slightly more 1-drops (probably people running MM) and then 5 drop increase (but this is mainly from Batterskull).


Other combo decks did take a dive, but you can actually see the relative changes in Ritual effects (which counts Storm and Belcher pretty well) and look at the spreadsheet for a the change in Dredge's performance to get a feel for where we're at. There are a few more represented (much larger card pool) than there were before but that doesn't account for much. The spreadsheets are available so you can draw your own conclusions if you have the time. I, for one, had far too much time.

I see the purpose of a graph as presenting accurate information succinctly. My criticism wasn't that the information in the article was inaccurate, nor was it that I couldn't find accurate data elsewhere. The criticism was simply this: The graph was intended to show MM's effect on the overall archetype distribution, but you don't really mention deck categorization. You also draw a conclusion from the graph alone (that control was the only real beneficiary and aggro-control was the only victim), but with higher resolution archetypes (like if combo-control had been a category, it would have seen a massive growth at the expense of straight combo) the graph would be much more telling and interesting.



I did include U/R Painter as a strict combo deck, I don't feel it's combo-control the way that NO RUG is (which I counted under Aggro-Control anyway.)

Ok, I understand better.

"Combo" is an extraordinarily loose category, and after some reflection I don't think anyone would agree on a categorization.

Here's my extremely arbitrary list of card "combos" in order of increasing combo character. The criterion I use is the likelihood of me saying, "My opponent went off" to describe a loss. I wonder how other people would rank them.

Stoneforge Mystic/Batterskull
Countertop
Stiflenought
Natural Order/Progenitus

Sword of the Meek/Thopter Foundry

Painter's Grind
Helm/Leyline

[Gheizen64]

Wow really good article. There's a lot of interesting and relevant information one can draw from it.

[Master Shake]

Ok, I understand better.

"Combo" is an extraordinarily loose category, and after some reflection I don't think anyone would agree on a categorization.

I had considered breaking things down into every represented archetype, but that was going to require another couple of hours more than I had already put into it and would make a graph representing it even more confusing. In hindsight I could have down a breakdown in pie chard form for every deck like I did for the day 2 metagame at the Grand Prix, but that data would be incredibly cluttered and only really help to show the major archetypes, which really wasn't the aim major for this article. I think the way I went about it was among the best ways it could have been without being bogged down in complexity.

The combo of 9 spells + Tendrils really isn't a combo, but I wanted the heading to refer to any 2/3 card combo that resulted in an immediate loss, or totally non-interactive decks, with some exceptions. While a Natural Order will generally end the game, I don't think it's an example of a combo unless that's all the deck is designed to do, like Natural Order Show and Tell. There are some things that are combos and they are in decks and may even win games, but they are not centric around abusing that combo for an immediate or incredibly quick win.

[CorpT]

Gathering Magic is continuing to impress with quality articles. Keep up the good work.

[bruizar]

The analysis doesn't reveal shocking news. I recon the rise in 1 drops is due to the fact that everyone added Mental Missteps. The only cards to cut in that place are 1 or 2 drops, because the 3 and 4 drops are too good to cut (you need bombs to win the game). This month of mental misstep doesn't show any meta-game adaption at all yet.

I'm curious how many / which tournaments you included in your analysis.

[Master Shake]

I'm curious how many / which tournaments you included in your analysis.

Well, I did 28 events since MMS was legal, each with 33 or more players. So basically, any event you can find publicly listed as of the previous weekend had a great chance of being in this article.

Three drops actually saw the biggest drop of any of the costs, if I am remembering correctly.

[Antonius]

lol, stoneforge mystic/batterskull is a game winning combo?

Might as well put assault/loam in there.

[Koby]

"Combo" is an extraordinarily loose category, and after some reflection I don't think anyone would agree on a categorization.

Here's my extremely arbitrary list of card "combos" in order of increasing combo character. The criterion I use is the likelihood of me saying, "My opponent went off" to describe a loss. I wonder how other people would rank them.

Stoneforge Mystic/Batterskull
Countertop
Stiflenought
Natural Order/Progenitus

Sword of the Meek/Thopter Foundry

Painter's Grind
Helm/Leyline

I would only describe actualy same-turn kill-cons as "combo". Everything else would be a synergy. That would categorize SFM/eqiups, Stifle/Nought, CB/top, and possibly NO/Pro. The latter is probably a 1-card "combo" but from my experience, still take 2-3 turns to kill. The synergy category would also cover Loam/Seismic interaction, and Thopter/Sword, but not Hexmage/Depths (because it can kill in one shot).

I do agree that anything classified as "combo" should have the opponent remark that you "went off".

[bruizar]

The only combo decks are decks that utilize

1) Show and Tell
2) Lion's Eye Diamond

with the exception that I count (ledless)Dredge as a combo deck too.

[3eowulf]

The only combo decks are decks that utilize

1) Show and Tell
2) Lion's Eye Diamond

with the exception that I count (ledless)Dredge as a combo deck too.

What about High Tide?
Enchantress?
Random Aluren, or maybe Protean Hulk?

Also, does everyone agree on counting Dredge as a combo deck?

[Koby]

Depending on the build, I almost always classify it as Aggro/Combo. Some versions are more Combo oriented (like Four Horsemen), but almost all the standard Dredge builds rely on combat to win.

[menace13]

What about High Tide?
Enchantress?
Random Aluren, or maybe Protean Hulk?

Also, does everyone agree on counting Dredge as a combo deck?
All of the above can be considered combo. Reanimator and Elves are also combo decks.

[will]

Gathering Magic is continuing to impress with quality articles. Keep up the good work.

This. Awesome article, Christopher. I wonder what combo has to do to regain some of its share of the pie.

[4eak]

I'm guessing combos that let me play just as much if not more permission/protection spells than my opponent.


peace,
4eak

[Neuad]

I think Mental Misstep has kind of stepped in as the new deputy card for Legacy, policing the gunfights at high noon, while Sheriff Force of Will gets to take a little more time off, spend some more days at the saloon, and reminisce of the days when Legacy was simpler and wasn't described by unnecessary wild west metaphors.

The point I'm trying to make is that Mental Misstep flooding the world isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's everywhere because it's what keeps everything in check, including itself.

Thanks for the sig. <3

[lorddotm]

Depending on the build, I almost always classify it as Aggro/Combo. Some versions are more Combo oriented (like Four Horsemen), but almost all the standard Dredge builds rely on combat to win.

4 Horsemen isn't Dredge.... You can look at every card in Ben's list, I promise none have Dredge on them.

[B.C.]

"I think that the biggest surprise to me was that Merfolk has no larger of a slice of the metagame pie than it did before Misstep, although it is clearly now the dominant deck in the format."

This seems contradictory. Please explain.

[say no to scurvy]

Merfolk had the highest number of placings with 23, making up roughly 10% of the entire field of Top 8s. This is significant not only because it confirms Merfolk as the most successful deck in the format, but because 10% is nearly exactly where Merfolk stood the last time we checked in on the format—10% both before and after a pivotal card for the deck. The conclusion that I draw from this is that the printing of Mental Misstep has actually improved Merfolk’s place in the metagame by 0%.

tl;dr - merfolk is 10% of t8s before and after printing of misstep, a change of 0% in terms of metagame change, but still numero uno

[B.C.]

My point is that 10% of top 8's, and a roughly comparable representation in the general metagame certainly doesn't represent something that is "clearly now the dominant deck in the format". A major player to be sure, but it's not like Standard Caw Blade or something.

[Master Shake]

My point is that 10% of top 8's, and a roughly comparable representation in the general metagame certainly doesn't represent something that is "clearly now the dominant deck in the format". A major player to be sure, but it's not like Standard Caw Blade or something.

You're right, it's not overwhelmingly the best deck in the format, it's just that it has the best match-ups and is the most successful. If one deck were to be dominant over all others, it would be Merfolk. That is what I was saying.