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Einherjer
07-20-2011, 11:12 AM
What I was asking myself for quite a while... why are you just playing 3 Chrome Moxe and not 4, as you might wanna have it on the opening hand?
Gheizen64
07-20-2011, 11:30 AM
Because with 3 you decrease the chance to see one in the starting hand by 25%, but you also decrease the chance to see two in a game by about 50% (iirc it was first 10 cards). So if it isn't absolutely crucial to get one in starting hand, 3 is the correct number, like with Diamond and Opal.
troopatroop
07-20-2011, 12:10 PM
Omg, Why does everyone suck at variance so badly? Do you want to see MULTIPLE Chrome Moxes? No, that's the point.

It's not about "when" you see the cards, as that's out of your control. 3 Chrome Mox is to circumvent card disadvantage.
Bryant Cook
07-20-2011, 12:59 PM
4 is the correct number in Storm combo, because you'd like to see as many as possible off of Ad Nauseam.
emidln
07-20-2011, 06:30 PM
With 4 Chrome Mox your chance of seeing one in your opening hand of 7 cards is just under 40% (39.95%). In 8 cards it's 44.48%.

With 3 Chrome Mox and 7 cards your chance is 31.54% and at 8 cards it is 35.42%.

The percentage change might be around 20% (x% of y%), but that's pretty misleading because what you're looking for is how often you're going to draw it. The easier to understand figures are:

4 Chrome Mox, 7 cards: 4 out of 10
3 Chrome Mox, 7 cards: 3 out of 10

4 Chrome Mox, 8 cards: 9 out of 20
3 Chrome Mox, 8 cards: 7 out of 20

None of these guarantee that you will actually draw 10 hands out and see 4, fwiw.

Today's lesson brought to you by hypergeometric distributions.
Michael Keller
07-21-2011, 10:12 AM
Omg, Why does everyone suck at variance so badly? Do you want to see MULTIPLE Chrome Moxes? No, that's the point.

It's not about "when" you see the cards, as that's out of your control. 3 Chrome Mox is to circumvent card disadvantage.

...And I thought I was the grumpy one... :rolleyes:
RainbowPenguin
07-21-2011, 01:11 PM
Because you forgot the last one at home, or someone stole it, or it spontaneously bust into flames?

.. Seriously, without context, how is this even a question?

Still, generally speaking, would you play 5 if you could? 15? There probably is some number that is optimal for a given deck, at a given tournament, and that number isn't necessesarily 0 or 4.