Ripple Mechanic - help me out?

[Sevryn]

Ripple 4 (When you cast this spell, you may reveal the top four cards of your library. You may cast any revealed cards with the same name as this spell without paying their mana costs. Put the rest on the bottom of your library.)


Could someone tell me what the chances of success are?

Also, has anyone used this card successfully? Besides 20 Black Lotus 40 Surging Flames . dec

[Maveric78f]

If you play 4 of them without any library manipulation in a 60 cards deck, it means that you have already found 1 ripple spell. Among, the 59 other cards, there are 3 other copies of this ripple spell. Within the 4 rippled cards, you have 56/59 * 55/58 * 54/57 * 53/56 = 80% chances to have no copies and thus only 20% chance of getting at least 1.

[Roman Candle]

If you play 4 of them without any library manipulation in a 60 cards deck, it means that you have already found 1 ripple spell. Among, the 59 other cards, there are 3 other copies of this ripple spell. Within the 4 rippled cards, you have 56/59 * 55/58 * 54/57 * 53/56 = 80% chances to have no copies and thus only 20% chance of getting at least 1.

I'm not sure this is really accurate providing you didn't mulligan to 1 with that one card being a Ripple Spell and convince your opponent that the mana cost at the top of the spell is a misprint and should really say zero.

Presuming no mulligans, and a 60-card deck, a Ripple spell cast on turn 1 will have a 50/53 * 49/52 * 48/51 * 57/50 = 78% chance of whiffing.

[Maveric78f]

I'm not sure this is really accurate providing you didn't mulligan to 1 with that one card being a Ripple Spell and convince your opponent that the mana cost at the top of the spell is a misprint and should really say zero.

Presuming no mulligans, and a 60-card deck, a Ripple spell cast on turn 1 will have a 50/53 * 49/52 * 48/51 * 57/50 = 78% chance of whiffing.

It means that according to you, you can't have another ripple spell in your opening hand?

[edgarps22]

The only successful list I have seen was a casual deck of Relentless Rats. But that is kitchen table material, albeit, funny, but still kitchen table material.

[Scordata]

Reletnless rats and thrumming stone. Do it for the lulz.

[ScatmanX]

Also, has anyone used this card successfully? Besides 20 Black Lotus 40 Surging Flames . dec
Wish Simian Spirit Guide you can win on their 1st Upkeep.

[metalhead]

I actually did the thrummingstone thing in extended a couple years ago just goofing off on mws. I cast 24 rats, after my opponent revealed a hand of 2 wraths and a cryptic command and said gg, I pitched a spirit guide, rite of flame, grapeshot