In the wake of Mental Misstep's banning, where do you see the format going?

[SpikeyMikey]

It's obvious that there will be a shift in the metagame in the post-MM world. But while many people have posited that we will go back to exactly where we were pre-MM, I don't think that's necessarily the case. Metagames are, to a large extent, inertial.

I think part of the reason that European and American metagames are so different is a difference in mentality; they're usually a little more combotastic, we're usually a little more control-friendly. But part of it is that there are many solutions to a given field and if two metagames are solved with different decks, that affects the future metagames. Much like two arms of a river that branches may look different, two divergent metas may bear no similarities even if they started from the same point.

Given that Merfolk is still one of the most popular decks in the US and that NO RUG was hands down the best deck, I think that it's safe to say that those will still be heavily played in the next month or so. Stoneblade was also incredibly popular and successful (although not as successful as NO RUG) and I can't see Stoneblade players immediately dropping the deck. It's not that the format was previously without a dedicated control deck; while many have said control didn't exist prior to Mental Misstep, Counter-Top Thopters was nothing if not dedicated control. But Stoneblade was a flavor of control that many Standard players were comfortable with. Since those players (at the SCG Opens) tended to be better players overall, the deck enjoyed a level of success that exceeded its actual power against the metagame (we all know that being comfortable with your deck and knowing it well can be more powerful than playing a better deck that you don't know).

I think that Tendrils combo is going to see an uptick as players driven out of the archetype by Misstep come back after a several month hiatus. Of course, given the ridiculously low levels of storm combo out there during the reign of Misstep, it's almost impossible for it not to increase. Whether or not it increases to levels where it becomes relevant again is another question entirely.

Does Goblins come back? I don't think so. It doesn't beat NO RUG consistently and until the readdition of Spell Pierce to Fish pushes NO RUG out of the field (which will take a month or two I think) the deck just won't be viable. I think Bant will become the preferred flavor of NO deck eventually, but again, as long as NO RUG is a player in the field, it won't reappear. Lavamancer and Lightning Bolt are too powerful against decks full of tiny green creatures like Hierarchs and Dryad Arbors. Or at least, Lightning Bolt is as good as StP in that situation and Lavamancer has no parallel in Bant. But Bant is stronger against fast aggro because of KotR and RWM.

But speaking of fast aggro, can fast aggro compete in a format with Stoneblade? I still can't make myself like Batterskull; I still think it's a terrible card. But the fact is, whatever my personal opinion of it, it's been a cornerstone to a very successful archetype and it's definitely an anti-aggro card. Is it enough to keep Zoo from making a comeback?

[DragoFireheart]

A shameless copy&paste:



I suspect the meta change will be such:

Goblins, Zoo, and Merfolk will be played more since they are the three popular aggro decks. In response to the goblins, Storm decks (AnT, TES, High Tide) will rise up to fight the flood of mid-range aggro decks. In response to that, various flavors of CounterTop. We'll see CounterTop Thopter, Supreme Blue, and CounterTop decks running the Stoneforge Mystic Batterskull combo to help fight aggro decks. The meta will settle after 4-8 months and we can expect the top tier decks to look something like this:

Merfolk
Zoo
TES
High Tide
Dredge
Goblins
CounterTop (with Blade Top being the most popular version in whatever colors it finds to be the best fit I suspect either UW or UWr will be the most popular choice.)
Bant (Aggro / NO-Pro variations).
NO RUG (I highly suspect this deck will stick around even after the MMS banning. It might be slightly weaker but it's still going to make its presence known).

[Kuma]

Does Goblins come back? I don't think so. It doesn't beat NO RUG consistently and until the readdition of Spell Pierce to Fish pushes NO RUG out of the field (which will take a month or two I think) the deck just won't be viable.

Black-splash Goblins actually destroys NO RUG, FYI. Also, NO RUG doesn't really care about Spell Pierce from Merfolk since it boards out Natural Order against them.

I think we see a resurgence of Zoo now that we don't have Mental Misstep to slow it down. Stoneblade will probably have issues with the deck since it doesn't have Mental Misstep to protect its Stoneforge Mystics. I think people who gave up storm pick it up again, but storm's top eight penetration doesn't change much since the format is still mostly blue and almost nobody plays the deck well. High Tide may come back, or not. It's hard to tell if that deck was legit or flavor of the month. I don't think NO RUG suffers much --- it's still a strong deck with a versatile gameplan. The increased Zoo could be a problem, though. I'm not sure what becomes of Stoneblade. The deck wasn't around before Mental Misstep, but I'm not convinced it needs it to win.

[DragoFireheart]

I'm not sure what becomes of Stoneblade. The deck wasn't around before Mental Misstep, but I'm not convinced it needs it to win.

I'm absolutely convinced it will try to splash CounterTop into its core. Standstill won't work as card advantage since vial decks will be running rampant. Ancestral Visions may or may not see play since it isn't harmed by the vial decks, but if a lot of combo decks surface it'll go for the CounterTop package instead.

[Admiral_Arzar]

I don't think any of the current DTBs will just suddenly die. They will all be played. A lot of the decks that have been driven under by Misstep (Goblins, Junk, Storm, Tide, Counterbalance, Stifle/Nought.dec, etc.) will experience a slow uptick in popularity.

As for High Tide, I believe it was much like Hive Mind. It hit the format at the right time and was played by some very good players to a few wins while the meta was largely unprepared. However, the deck was already fading back into the shadows some time before Misstep's printing, and while it's good, I don't think it will ever dominate or come close to dominating.

[Esper3k]

I would anticipate a high resurgence of tribal. Specifically:

Ally Aggro
Vampire Combo
Kithkin Control

[bowvamp]

Don't forget High Tide Combo and Elves Combo. I also anticipate more Reanimator. Less burn would be a safe bet too. Snapcaster prolly changes some stuff, I just don't know what. Also, everyone seems to be really into blue zoo, so expect that to see play until people realize it sux.

[troopatroop]

As for High Tide, I believe it was much like Hive Mind. It hit the format at the right time and was played by some very good players to a few wins while the meta was largely unprepared. However, the deck was already fading back into the shadows some time before Misstep's printing, and while it's good, I don't think it will ever dominate or come close to dominating.

I disagree. There was nothing to stop the deck until Mental Misstep. Candelabra was always $200, so noone could play the deck, but it was fairly unstoppable for awhile. The only thing it actively fears is Counterbalance though, so it could have a metagame check in that. Still, I see it as the best deck after MM's banning.

Also, 2000 posts. Sick

[GGoober]

Sure there were decks that stopped High Tide, in fact High Tide was very much like Hive Mind, it had an unstoppable streak for a period of time, and then declined significantly.

Spiral Tide is hard to hate, but that is because people were playing mid-range and slower control decks, which Tide decks beat easily. If you were to take a fast deck e.g. Zoo or Dredge that wins on turn 3-4, Spiral Tide isn't going to cut it. Take a deck like Team America with discard and countermagic on a Time Spiral attempting to recoup the card disadvantage, and you'll see Spiral Tide facing big problems. Not to mention, if Tide.archetype is shoring up, then a simple playset of Extirpate creates difficult problems for the High Tide player.

[dahcmai]

I'm not sure what becomes of Stoneblade. The deck wasn't around before Mental Misstep, but I'm not convinced it needs it to win.

Actually, it was. It just wasn't popular. I played it back in March. Just find the old Caw Blade thread.

It most definitely will still be around. Misstep was a good card in the deck, but far from back breaking by losing it. It's like losing Chain Lightning out of Zoo. Hardly a problem.

[Malchar]

I'm quite happy with the banning. I'll be dusting off my old black-splash goblins deck, which I think is quite strong. I agree that it does fare quite well against natural order decks due to warren weirding, the mana disruption, and overall offensive pressure of the deck.

Also, my monored painter, which was already quite strong, has only gotten better. Grindstone, goblin welder, and the red blasts gets countered less often, and I no longer need to run mental misstep maindeck to counter opposing mental missteps, which frees up slots for other cards.

[Draener]

I think what's going to happen is the meta will stay relatively the same, with possibly reanimator dropping slightly out of contention. Without MM, reanimator will have a very difficult time protecting Jin, which will be a much bigger problem than having your reanimate countered by MM. Especially when you could cast exhume half the time anyways. The other thing that will happen is that storm decks, specifically TES and High tide will start making a comeback, but only very slightly. You will see a couple of really good players dominating with these decks consistantly, but you will not see a very positive win to loss ratio with the deck as a whole.

[Zilla]

Goblins, Zoo, and Merfolk will be played more since they are the three popular aggro decks. In response to the goblins, Storm decks (AnT, TES, High Tide) will rise up to fight the flood of mid-range aggro decks. In response to that, various flavors of CounterTop. We'll see CounterTop Thopter, Supreme Blue, and CounterTop decks running the Stoneforge Mystic Batterskull combo to help fight aggro decks. The meta will settle after 4-8 months and we can expect the top tier decks to look something like this:

Merfolk
Zoo
TES
High Tide
Dredge
Goblins
CounterTop (with Blade Top being the most popular version in whatever colors it finds to be the best fit I suspect either UW or UWr will be the most popular choice.)
Bant (Aggro / NO-Pro variations).
NO RUG (I highly suspect this deck will stick around even after the MMS banning. It might be slightly weaker but it's still going to make its presence known).
Every time you post a predicted metagame you omit Team America, which seems like a pretty massive oversight. With the right SB it can beat Zoo and Goblins, and it's a monster against Storm combo. CounterTop may still be a deck, but I'm almost certain that Team America will take a more prominent anti-combo role in the new metagame.

[UnderwaterGuy]

I would anticipate a high resurgence of tribal. Specifically:

Ally Aggro
Vampire Combo
Kithkin Control

This is a joke right?

Can you give me a Kithkin Control decklist?

[Whit3 Ghost]

Stoneblade will still be relevant because Mystic is still really good against Merfolk. NORUG will still be good, because it's a collection of very powerful cards.

What I don't see, is where Counterbalance comes back into prevalence. It's not like that card was seeing a ton of play between Survival being banned and Misstep happening.

[keys]

I predict High Tide combo is going to be stupid unless Counterbalance resurges. Snapcaster Mage may turn Solidarity into the stronger build.

[Einherjer]

This is a joke right?

Can you give me a Kithkin Control decklist?

loool

[Tammit67]

I predict High Tide combo is going to be stupid unless Counterbalance resurges. Snapcaster Mage may turn Solidarity into the stronger build.

Solidarity has the problem of needing at least 4 lands in play in order to combo off most of the time. Spring tide is just faster, and with time spiral it might be equally consistent.

[tsabo_tavoc]

I would anticipate a high resurgence of tribal. Specifically:

Ally Aggro
Vampire Combo
Kithkin Control

You missed Thunderbluff.

[DragoFireheart]

Every time you post a predicted metagame you omit Team America, which seems like a pretty massive oversight. With the right SB it can beat Zoo and Goblins, and it's a monster against Storm combo. CounterTop may still be a deck, but I'm almost certain that Team America will take a more prominent anti-combo role in the new metagame.

- Oh yes, Team America. I thought it did poorly against Merfolk?

[Aggro_zombies]

- Oh yes, Team America. I thought it did poorly against Merfolk?
And Merfolk does poorly against Zoo. That doesn't mean you omit it.

Pre-MMS, post-Survival, Team America was doing better than Counterbalance in SCG Opens.

[DragoFireheart]

And Merfolk does poorly against Zoo. That doesn't mean you omit it.

Pre-MMS, post-Survival, Team America was doing better than Counterbalance in SCG Opens.

- Alright, then add TA to my predicted list.

[Whit3 Ghost]

- Oh yes, Team America. I thought it did poorly against Merfolk?
It's bad Merfolk matchup is usually pretty overstated, depending on what you board. If you turn your Missteps into 2 more removal spells and 2 utility and run 4-6 more spot removal in the board, you basically have to get screwed by your threat density to lose games 2/3.

[nedleeds]

I'm not sure what becomes of Stoneblade. The deck wasn't around before Mental Misstep

The deck exists because of stupid Batterskull, not MM. Not having to pay to equip your man and get him whacked is the reason U/w added SFM.

[Jeff Kruchkow]

Actually, it was. It just wasn't popular. I played it back in March. Just find the old Caw Blade thread.

It most definitely will still be around. Misstep was a good card in the deck, but far from back breaking by losing it. It's like losing Chain Lightning out of Zoo. Hardly a problem.

Not to start an argument, but it really wasn't. Until MM the deck also didn't have Batterskull which is the primary reason to run SFM. CawBlade and the new Stoneforge decks are pretty dissimilar.

[xfxf]

The deck exists because of stupid Batterskull, not MM. Not having to pay to equip your man and get him whacked is the reason U/w added SFM.

Turn 2:
SFM Player: Tap tap, SFM into play, Batterskull in my hand. Here comes Batterskull next turn hee hee.
Zoo Player: Easy tiger, here's a Lightning Bolt for you
SFM Player: Mental miss...miss it.

In short, it's not the batterskull :)

[Richard Cheese]

Turn 2:
SFM Player: Tap tap, SFM into play, Batterskull in my hand. Here comes Batterskull next turn hee hee.
Zoo Player: Easy tiger, here's a Lightning Bolt for you
SFM Player: Mental miss...miss it.

In short, it's not the batterskull :)

Whatever, that shit happens all the time, Misstep or not. SFM into Batterskull is still a pretty strong play, and getting to 5 mana still isn't the impossible feat people try to make it out to be. Stoneblade will stick around, it will just evolve a bit.

[sligh16]

Whatever, that shit happens all the time, Misstep or not. SFM into Batterskull is still a pretty strong play, and getting to 5 mana still isn't the impossible feat people try to make it out to be. Stoneblade will stick around, it will just evolve a bit.

Yep, and as much as Ancient Grudge looks like the nuts against Batterskull, it not always get there, thanks to the extra-dunno-why-they-added-it bounce ability, just to make it more annoying haha.

Maybe it's time to start packing those Krosan Grips again.

[RJM]

Yep, and as much as Ancient Grudge looks like the nuts against Batterskull, it not always get there, thanks to the extra-dunno-why-they-added-it bounce ability, just to make it more annoying haha.

Maybe it's time to start packing those Krosan Grips again.

I feel like it should always be time to pack at least a pair of Krosan Grips if you're in Green. In the very least, it's never been a couple of SB slots that I think I've ever really regretted using up at any point in time.