[Article] The Liliana Test and an Unearthed Legacy

[metamet]

The Liliana Test and an Unearthed Legacy (http://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/10/the-liliana-test-and-an-unearthed-legacy/)

Josh Rayden runs us through his first hand account of this past weekend’s SCG Indianapolis Open--the first high profile event since the banning of Misstep and rotation in Standard--pointing out the prospects of identified Standard staples and a new wave in Legacy.

Do you guys think "The Liliana Test" will be as defining as Josh proposes?

[RaNDoMxGeSTuReS]

ANT and TPS tend to perform rather well versus decks like Goblins and Zoo.

I learned me some education.

[GGoober]

The only problem with the "X Tests" is that they don't really add much meaning/discussion to deck building. Baneslayer passed the bolt test, but died to a lot of things, yet people still play her, because she is that powerful and wins games. Goyf/Bob/Lackey all fail multiple tests but are played more commonly than Tombstalker in the past etc.

Playing creatures because they are passing certain tests is inherently a pointless measurement for me. Creatures are all obviously going to die to some form of removal (even Emrakul/Progenitus) so articles like these about the "X Test" really don't add any information/insights to deckbuilding etc.

Liliana is very powerful, but I think the "Liliana Test" isn't going to determine what kind of creatures you are running, instead it is going to determine what kind of decks/strategies will be played so that you don't lose flat out to a resolved Liliana. A deck playing very few creatures will ultimately lose to Liliana, whereas a deck that is highly aggressive and dropping 2-3 creatures by turn 3 is going to beat Liliana.

The same reason why the "Bolt Test" for Planeswalker is also misleading most of the time. Jace and many Planeswalkers pass the bolt-test, but the real reason why you play Jace and X-walker is because it is incredibly powerful in said deck. If resolved, it's going to help you win the game.

Back to topic, the Liliana Test is really an edict test. If you have 2 creatures in play and they don't have any way to remove creatures before they drop Liliana, I'm inclined to say that Liliana actually has to pass a test of being in a deck that supports her with early game removal. Lastly, this whole test-subject is really not insightful because once decks adapt, the test measurement is gone down the drain. Just my thoughts.

The article was alright, but I didn't like how a 'financial' website is simply referencing SCG market prices. I am inclined to think that QS colludes with SCG to kind of make readers go "OMG SCG is selling this high, I should buy them now before they go up higher" etc. I feel that if the article was drawing its sources from Ebay and a collection of website prices, it would be more accurate. SCG is a standard for card prices but they are not always representative. E.g. no Liliana go for $70+ on Ebay.

[RaNDoMxGeSTuReS]

She's still a $50 BIN on Ebay.

[Aggro_zombies]

She's still a $50 BIN on Ebay.
This price is ridiculously inflated. There is no way she will still be at this price in six months unless she gets played in literally every Standard deck.

[Dark Ritual]

Yeah liliana is going to drop in price quick; especially since she's in the first set in the block, the set is getting cracked a LOT, and she isn't as good as some people make her out to be sure she's a solid card but she's not jace, TMS in terms of power level. She'd have to dominate standard a lot for her to sustain her current price.

Liliana is a sweet card, but she's going to plummet. Sell yours now or trade them.

[hi-val]

The article was alright, but I didn't like how a 'financial' website is simply referencing SCG market prices. I am inclined to think that QS colludes with SCG to kind of make readers go "OMG SCG is selling this high, I should buy them now before they go up higher" etc. I feel that if the article was drawing its sources from Ebay and a collection of website prices, it would be more accurate. SCG is a standard for card prices but they are not always representative. E.g. no Liliana go for $70+ on Ebay.

As a co-owner of QS, I will directly answer this.

We are absolutely not affiliated with any other site online. We can only maintain journalistic integrity because we do not depend on an online store to sell cards. As a result, we are one of the few article sites online that will actually tell you not to spend money on hyped cards or waste money on foolish gambles.

You'll notice that the article specifically states that Liliana is overpriced and you should wait for it to come down and if you have them, sell yours.

Josh used SCG probably because they are most reflective of an active market - they are really fast to update prices, so an upward trend on SCG indicates that people with sharp minds think that card is on the rise. I'll mention to Josh that it's worth wrapping eBay prices into his analysis.

[dahcmai]

Liliana is a sweet card, but she's going to plummet. Sell yours now or trade them.

Totally agree with that.

Notice even the Solar Flare decks are starting to not use her. She's good, but not $50 good. More like $25 good. Then again, I've been saying that for a while anyway.

I do kind of want to try her out in legacy reanimator though. It doesn't seem super amazing, but it's sure a hell of a mirror match trump.

[Dark Ritual]

Never thought of putting her in reanimator. It might work in reanimator or it might not. The only real decks I've thought of putting her in are aggro loam and UBx control and aggro control shells. She's obviously good in pox but I don't play pox so I couldn't care less.

She'll be down in a couple of months I'm just waiting it out.