Advanced Fatesealing Strategy

[klaus]

Hey guys,

check out the following scenario (which occurs quite frequently to many of us I'm sure):


Board position:

You: Jace TMS @3 counters
Opp.: nothing, and at least one fetch land and no cards in hand

You fateseal and see a card that you'd rather not see in your opponent's hand.

Q1:
Will you let him keep the card, assuming that reason will tell him to fetch it away and loose the ability to shuffle away actual bad cards?
[Experience tells me that about 85+% of the players will do so.]

Q2:
Would you still refrain from doing so if you're holding countermagic, but facing a blue control deck?

Q3:
If you replied "no" to the questions above, under what circumstances would you let him keep an okay card? Or would you always put it on the bottom?
Thanks!

[GGoober]

Hey this is a great question, my personal response is given below.

The question is actually harder because you need to analyze the threat on how much you don't want to see the card, or how 'pro' your opponent is (not referring to him reading your intentions, but rather how much value does he get from cracking the fetch). I tend to be risk averse so I prefer not to gamble a game if my opponent's fatesealed card is going to cost me the game for sure. If the card has a high threat level but is not game-breaking, I might be inclined to let him keep it and hope he fetches (most opponents will end up fetching but that's not the case if they have a brainstorm in hand).

Basically, if there is a card you absolutely cannot afford to see hit play and if your opponent has a huge incentive on not using the fetchland (being low on life, or having brainstormed into good cards, or having a brainstorm in hand) then you should put the card at the bottom.

Sometimes a good opponent would rather draw the 'bad' fatesealed card that is left on top especially if he has a brainstorm in hand + fetch in play. It is much worse for your opponent to crack and then brainstorm to see cards vs drawing the bad card and cracking the fetch.

[jrw1985]

If your opponent cracks the fetch then he has equal chances of drawing the offending card, whether it was on the top or bottom of the library. So, you need to put it on the bottom if you don't want them to have it, regardless of their fetch.

[Mr Miagi]

This is more of a poker like situation. You got to assess your opponent and your options if the player doesn't fetch..

[from Cairo]

If your opponent cracks the fetch then he has equal chances of drawing the offending card, whether it was on the top or bottom of the library. So, you need to put it on the bottom if you don't want them to have it, regardless of their fetch.

I'd go with this.

[CorpT]

If your opponent cracks the fetch then he has equal chances of drawing the offending card, whether it was on the top or bottom of the library. So, you need to put it on the bottom if you don't want them to have it, regardless of their fetch.

That's true, but there is the added complexity of making him use his fetch. That does 1 damage to him and prevents him from using that fetch later. If that advantage is worth the risk of him not using it, you can try to get him to use it.

IMO, it's like this:

1 - Don't care if he has it
|
|
5 - Don't really want him to have it, but not that big of a deal
|
7 - This is pretty bad
|
|
10 - Wow, I really don't want him to have it. He'll win on the spot or prevent me from winning

If there is upside (damage is relevant or loss of available fetch), you can take a chance on a 5, and maybe a 7, but you'd still bottom a 10. If there is no upside (damage is irrelevant and/or he has lots of fetches in play or in hand) then there is no reason to take the chance.

[xeraseth]

If your opponent cracks the fetch then he has equal chances of drawing the offending card, whether it was on the top or bottom of the library. So, you need to put it on the bottom if you don't want them to have it, regardless of their fetch.
The thing is, putting it on the bottom gives them more 'live draws' since most players will assume that since you left it on top you don't care if they have it, so it's a bad card and will break the fetch to shuffle the card away. If you put it on bottom they don't have to crack the fetch because there could still be a good card on top.

What you have to do is look at the card and almost immediately put it back on top, if you think about it too hard they will know it is at least decent card and not crack the fetch. Or on the flip side, if it is a bad card sit there and debate for a minute on whether or not to put it back in hopes they don't crack the fetch.

[TheShaun]

I think of it as 4 possible outcomes:

I put it on the bottom and he doesn't fetch: I know that a dangerous card is on the bottom and he will not draw it next turn. I am in a better place.

I put it on the bottom and he fetches: He has a better chance of drawing the dangerous card than if I put it on the bottom, but a lower chance of drawing a dangerous card than if I left it on top. So overall I'm in a better place.

I leave it on top and he doesn't fetch: He is guaranteed to draw a dangerous card next turn. I'm in a bad place.

I leave it on top and he fetches: He is less likely to draw a dangerous card than if I left it on top. This is the same as if I put it on the bottom and he fetches. Again, in a better place.


So final outlook is that if he decides to fetch, then it doesn't matter which choice I make (obviously). If he doesn't fetch, then I'm either going to guarantee that he draws a dangerous card, or greatly reduce the chance of him drawing a dangerous card. Obvious winner here.

There is the factor of him "wasting" a fetch when he wouldn't have to otherwise, which deserves consideration. First off, he loses 1 life. I don't believe it is very important, as you typically don't start fatesealing with Jace unless you intend to win the game via ultimate. If you have pressure and are attacking, you're almost certainly better off brainstorming with Jace instead to better protect your advantage. The loss of a shuffle effect matters if he's playing Brainstorm, in which case he would end up with the best option of the top 3 cards and be able to shuffle away crap. So in this case, you are giving your opponent a slight advantage.

Long story short, I can't ever see a good reason to leave a dangerous card on the top, since the worst effect is letting your opponent have an extra shuffle effect, which in itself isn't very risky.

[klaus]

First off thanks for your quick replies!

There are two more things that I'd like to add:

1.) I can't think of a common scenario in which I'd use fateseal over BS, when I'm not holding countermagic (against decks with non-permanent threats) or removal (against decks that win solely via creatures). With 0 cards in hand Brainstorming for quick C/A & C/Q seems like the most reasonable way to go - though there are exceptions (i. e. you being at <4 life against a burn heavy deck with Jace being @ 9+ counters).
So the example given in the OP should actually include 1 piece of countermagic, to lead to a more specific discussion.

2.) pseudo-forcing your opponent to use his only fetchland when going the fatesealing route actually lets you gain a considerably higher amount control over his draws than with the land in play, if you think about it.

[Sloshthedark]

I'd prefer to leave it and let them fetch if the card is not game-breaking, most will crack... and will see what it was, which puts you further into control of the match and establishes new level of interaction, most people do not realize possibility of such speculation and will not be sure in these situation now on...

[Piceli89]

I'd like to add that leaving a dangerous/harmless card on top with him having a fetchland and seeing if he cracks it without hesitation provides you respectable information about how your opponents plays and his level of thinking depth.
The one who'll shuffle the card right away is more likely to be an average player, thus you'll be able to fateseal more comfortably the other times knowing you have great odds of making him doing what you do. Although risky, it's a valuable edge.

[menace13]

You lose nothing by bottoming the card. If anything you gain the chance the he will not draw it because he randomly decided to not crack the fetch at the time.

[death]

The title should read Bluffing for value. But seriously there is no point doing that. If you want to mind trick your opponent into cracking that fetch immediately you have to earn respect. There's an opportunity here for you to put away the game, why waste an otherwise effective fateseal?

[dahcmai]

I burn it for another reason. Not everyone remembers to bother to fetch. I'd hate to have someone not fetch it away because they forget they even had one out. The odds are just better if you burn it if it's that painful to let them have.