FREE Insider: I’m Wrong and So Are You – 5 Rules for Avoiding the Prerelease Poison

[metamet]

FREE Insider: I’m Wrong and So Are You – 5 Rules for Avoiding the Prerelease Poison (http://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/05/free-insider-im-wrong-and-so-are-you-5-rules-for-avoiding-the-prerelease-poison/)

Entreat the Angels shot up this weekend before this article went up, but what do you guys think of Zealous Conscripts being another sleeper?

[DragoFireheart]

I dunno about Zealous Conscripts being a sleeper, but I agree completely with the article.

I haven't pre-ordered anything. I'll wait for prices to stop fluctuating. I might think Temporal Mastery is/will be broken at some point, but I'm not dropping $40.00 on it until I know it's actually worth spending that much money.

[Aggro_zombies]

I dunno about Zealous Conscripts being a sleeper, but I agree completely with the article.

I haven't per-ordered anything. I'll wait for prices to stop fluctuating. I might think Temporal Mastery is/will be broken at some point, but I'm not dropping $40.00 on it until I know it's actually worth spending that much money.
If TM is as all-that-and-a-bag-of-chips as people are saying it is, bannings will happen and its price will drop like a rock. It's not exactly playable in any other format.

[TsumiBand]

Not sure which format Zealous Conscripts is meant to be a "sleeper" in, seems a decent guy to turn a ground stall into an alpha strike in Limited but that's it. (i also suck exceptionally badly in limited so never listen to me)

I like the article though.

[DragoFireheart]

If TM is as all-that-and-a-bag-of-chips as people are saying it is, bannings will happen and its price will drop like a rock. It's not exactly playable in any other formats.

Exactly. If it turns out to be crap, wasted money. If it turns out to be too good and gets banned, wasted money.

I suspect it will see some Vintage play, but otherwise meh.

[Aggro_zombies]

Exactly. If it turns out to be crap, wasted money. If it turns out to be too good and gets banned, wasted money.

I suspect it will see some Vintage play, but otherwise meh.
You only get one Brainstorm in that format, which seems like a dealbreaker when compared to the original Time Walk. Also, if you're Time Walking in Vintage, don't you just win? How often do you take an extra turn in that format for tempo reasons?

[Einherjer]

I preordered 4 Griselbrand for 7 dollar each. I think its a fair deal in any way. And on the top of that itll be a 4of in my deck for the GP so yeah....

But in any way - I agree with this article aswell :)

[DragoFireheart]

You only get one Brainstorm in that format, which seems like a dealbreaker when compared to the original Time Walk. Also, if you're Time Walking in Vintage, don't you just win? How often do you take an extra turn in that format for tempo reasons?

It might be worth using other cards to set it up in Vintage since having 5 time walks could be appealing. Also, using tops to cast it on the opponents turn can be interesting. They also run jace, so it isn't too horrible.

[emidln]

They have scroll rack too, and enough artifact mana to potentially use it.

[Phoenix Ignition]

I dunno, buying that set of Jaces for $60 seemed like a pretty good idea. i'm happy with it. Also Liliana's for $80 has been doing pretty well for me.

I'd actually give you some different advice. Unless you know that a card will completely blow Standard apart, never, ever, buy a card that isn't good in Legacy. I don't see Zealous Conscripts as being good in anything, and honestly buying cards for $0.75 and selling for $1.99 is more of a waste of time than it's worth, unless you somehow bought in bulk and sold in bulk (very, very unlikely). Cards that don't hold in value are things to stay away from in both the long term (obvious reasons) and the short term (if it really isn't that great of a card then speculation is the only reason prices would be driven up. Power creep is a thing, so if the card isn't good by legacy standards then it probably isn't even worth getting to begin with. If that's the case then you don't want to get on the unlucky side of speculation).

[DragoFireheart]

They have scroll rack too, and enough artifact mana to potentially use it.

Yeah. I could forsee some Key-Vault deck with enough library manipulation setting up a shit turn of extra turns to get the combo out.

[DLifshitz]

Not sure which format Zealous Conscripts is meant to be a "sleeper" in

Standard. See, Ramp decks are expected to dominate after AVR rotates in, and Zealous Conscripts steals Primeval Titans like a boss...

[KevinTrudeau]

Standard. See, Ramp decks are expected to dominate after AVR rotates in, and Zealous Conscripts steals Primeval Titans like a boss...

In addition, Conscripts (cast off Cavern of Souls, why not) stealing a Gideon that was +2'ed last turn, and swinging with said Gideon.

I'm not saying the card is great or even good, but it does have some potential metagame applications.

[Aggro_zombies]

It might be worth using other cards to set it up in Vintage since having 5 time walks could be appealing. Also, using tops to cast it on the opponents turn can be interesting. They also run jace, so it isn't too horrible.
Why are you durdling with setting up five Time Walks when you can get infinite Time Walks with Key + Time Vault? It seems like the level of setup you'd need puts you into the, "I might as well just play a better combo and then play some counter-hate cards to make it work" zone.

EDIT: Stealing a Prime Time with Conscripts seems not that great. I'm not sure how aggro you are if you're playing a five-drop in your red deck, but once they cast the Titan and get Nexus + Wolf Run, what are you doing to top that? Hitting them for nine and getting your own Nexus + Wolf Run? Or two Mountains? I guess it could be a sideboard card, but Act of Aggression is still a card.

[DLifshitz]

In addition, Conscripts (cast off Cavern of Souls, why not) stealing a Gideon that was +2'ed last turn, and swinging with said Gideon.

Plus, Reanimator and Heartless Summoning decks have got some new toys now... So, yeah, it's going to show up in sideboards probably.

[DragoFireheart]

Why are you durdling with setting up five Time Walks when you can get infinite Time Walks with Key + Time Vault?

You would take the extra turns to set up your Key-Vault combo.

[Aggro_zombies]

You would take the extra turns to set up your Key-Vault combo.
This seems like way too much effort. Why not just get the original Time Walk and do it that way? Do you really need two or three extra turns to get your combo online? And if you do, is it really worth using a card that is dead in your opening hand, requires one (or several) of your one-of tutors to set up, and then doesn't actually win you the game when it resolves and you take your extra turn?

The effort to reward ratio seems very out of whack here. Plus, if you need multiple turns in a row to get Time-Key working, I would suspect you're fighting through hate, in which case you'd be better off using draw and tutors to find counter-hate cards like Ancient Grudge rather than seeing how many turns in a row you can take without winning.

[evanmartyr]

I think he means more having the redundancy of 4 extra Time Walks in your deck could get you to the combo.

[Michael Keller]

Temporal Mastery with Mystical Tutor and Vampiric Tutor seems pretty intense, but aren't there just better cards to tutor for in those scenarios? I mean, if you're setting up a win the following turn or searching for something that will generate you card advantage, it doesn't seem like Mastery - albeit cute with cards like those - still isn't the optimal strategy in most instances.

[rxavage]

I wanted to pick of 2 copies of EtA but not at 20$. I pulled a terminus and devastation tide at the prerelease and a gisela but nothing else really of worth.

[Final Fortune]

Honestly, I think Griselbrand and Cavern of Souls are the only "slam dunks" in the set. Reforge the Soul I'm on the fence about it, but I'll probably buy it just because it'll find a home in Storm at some point.

[JDK]

Standard. See, Ramp decks are expected to dominate after AVR rotates in, and Zealous Conscripts steals Primeval Titans like a boss...

You know Act of Treason and Traitorous Blood, right?

The only point of Zealous Conscripts is to steal a Karn at Ult range. :D


I preordered 4 Griselbrand for 7 dollar each.
Did you cancel your order for $10 each?

[The Big Ragu]

It's amazing just how much Tiabalt is preordering for. That card is complete and total crud.

The smart thing is for people to stockpile on Cavern of Souls and Griselbrand. Those cards are going to be impacting a variety of formats for a very long time to come.

[edgarps22]

Tibalt is garbage .. in Legacy. In Standard or Modern, I am not so certain a 2 mana reusable free looting effect is that bad. People here seem to forget that there are other formats OTHER than Legacy that can have a MUCH higher impact on a price, even if its just speculation. Tibalt could be super bonkers in Standard, could be garbage, I am sure that will shake itself out, but please try to remember that speculative prices are based on more than Legacy.

[The Big Ragu]

I don't play Standard, but I do keep tabs on it. I recall Evan Irwin and Brad Nelson briefly commenting that they think the card sucks.

Edit: I made a goof up. I was thinking of another card. My bad.

[DragoFireheart]

Tibalt is garbage .. in Legacy. In Standard or Modern, I am not so certain a 2 mana reusable free looting effect is that bad.

RANDOM looting. Big difference.

[menace13]

Tibalt is garbage .. in Legacy. In Standard or Modern, I am not so certain a 2 mana reusable free looting effect is that bad. People here seem to forget that there are other formats OTHER than Legacy that can have a MUCH higher impact on a price, even if its just speculation. Tibalt could be super bonkers in Standard, could be garbage, I am sure that will shake itself out, but please try to remember that speculative prices are based on more than Legacy.
Might be decent with all the flashback spells in Std and maybe Modern(Loam decks?)

[edgarps22]

Random or not, there is a lot of flashback, Noxious Revival, hell Past in Flames is in Standard. I am not going to be building a deck like that, but if you can get it so that most of your threats are interchangeable, or if you need it when you are drawing a mana flood, then this card is brilliant.

As for Brad Nelson and Evan Erwin not liking it, they were also the same two guys who spent like 10 minutes loving the hell out of Chancellor of the Tangle. Both of them have earned their respective voices, but I do not trust their evaluations on cards. Evan is a great ambassador of the game, and Brad is amazing at drafting and playing other peoples decklists, but I really have come to not trust much of anyone's evaluation on cards outside of Chapin, Kibler, and Menendian, and Menendian only when it pertains to Vintage.

[Einherjer]

Did you cancel your order for $10 each?


O.O Youre right - my fault! I preordered for 10 Dollar - so about 7 Euro - got confused about the currencies!

[dschalter]

I dunno, buying that set of Jaces for $60 seemed like a pretty good idea. i'm happy with it. Also Liliana's for $80 has been doing pretty well for me.

I'd actually give you some different advice. Unless you know that a card will completely blow Standard apart, never, ever, buy a card that isn't good in Legacy. I don't see Zealous Conscripts as being good in anything, and honestly buying cards for $0.75 and selling for $1.99 is more of a waste of time than it's worth, unless you somehow bought in bulk and sold in bulk (very, very unlikely). Cards that don't hold in value are things to stay away from in both the long term (obvious reasons) and the short term (if it really isn't that great of a card then speculation is the only reason prices would be driven up. Power creep is a thing, so if the card isn't good by legacy standards then it probably isn't even worth getting to begin with. If that's the case then you don't want to get on the unlucky side of speculation).

Bragging aside, this is an excellent post. There are a lot of people who buy some card for a cheap price and then boast about how much of a profit they made when the price goes up by some impressive sounding amount. The problem, of course, is that you actually have to realize those gains and actually doing so is quite difficult. This issue comes up every fall in a big way- the standard format changes a lot and people need new decks for states, so they'll pay a lot, which means that SCG and Co. can have extortionate prices for a few weeks. Then the people who bought a "20 dollar card" for 5 dollars talk about what geniuses they are and proceed to hold onto the card and watch it fall to less than what they bought it for. This concept is also important when it comes to financial writers- they'll often "review" their predictions and point if you had followed their recommendation and bought a card that started at 7, went to 10 and settled at 2 you could have made "40% profit" if you timed it right.

[Suneloon]

Trying the break the pre-order market, is much more a thing now, than just a few sets ago. Everybody AND their mother, is getting in on the action now. And this changes the rules for the pre-order market itself. I feel that not so long ago, it was easier to spot a good card, and get it for cheap (I'm not trying to make money, just trying to play mtg for cheapest). Now, if a card is even mentioned anywhere on the web, prices go up within minutes/hours...
So i agree with this article: chill out, and wait. Unless off course you are really really sure.

Nice read- thx!

[Jamaican Zombie Legend]

Random or not, there is a lot of flashback, Noxious Revival, hell Past in Flames is in Standard. I am not going to be building a deck like that, but if you can get it so that most of your threats are interchangeable, or if you need it when you are drawing a mana flood, then this card is brilliant.

http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?23622-SCD-AVR-Tibalt-the-Fiend-Blooded

There wasn't a consensus here, but I saw no argument that could convince me this guy isn't bad. Standard/Block decks like Burning Vengeance have better filter/draw available already that fit in with their plans like Think Twice, Desperate Ravings, and Faithless Looting and this guy is awful in Red aggro decks (and while I'm not certain, I think any R/X/x midrange decks won't like this either). Maybe if Rav 2.0 brings some goofy stuff to kingmake, him he'll be good, but until then chalk up another bad walker for Red.

[SpikeyMikey]

I think Conscripts could be good in Standard but I also think $5 would be the best you're going to see for it. It's a board card and not a 4-of at that. Wild Defiance though, that might be worth picking up now. Potential Modern card.

[dahcmai]

I actually like Tibalt. I seem to be one of the only ones. Draw a card and discard a random one each turn is pretty hot in a deck that can use discarded cards easily. I'll play it. It's not good enough for Legacy, but surely decent enough for standard. I'm actually quite glad people are underestimating him. Allows me to trade for a few easily.

Anyway, there's plenty of good deals to be had on pre-releases. I picked up 4 foil Cavern of Souls right off the bat. Do you really think that a land that is going to at the very least going to be considered for every tribal deck from here on out isn't worth paying some extra for? I paid $44 a shot for those foils. I consider it money well spent. They will go down, but in a few years, I'll more than have my money's worth and be able to sell them for around the same in the end. Those are kind of a gimme though.

I'm a fan of Descendant's Path. That one is a gold mine for tribal stuff, EDH, and might even have something worth building a competitive deck out of due to some odd choices like Eldrazi spawns and other such nonsense.

I'll be willing to bet that Desolate Lighthouse foils are a decent buy right now. That card is just generally useful and will be for a long time.

Griselbrand is obviously a great buy right now. Compare to Elesh Norn or Jin Gitaxias. He's cheap right now if you think about it that way. Plus, he's way better in EDH than either of those two.

Lastly, Sigarda, Host of Herons is borderline playable in Legacy and Standard. I lean toward unplayable in Legacy, but it's quite close to being good in standard and any mythic that can get into a decent deck is a good buy once the initial hype dies. She's too much right now, but you know that one will drop.


The best part of these release and pre-releases is the trading. I gained a few dual lands off them in trade for new stuff so I call it a great set so far. lol Gotta love hype sometimes.

[hi-val]

Bragging aside, this is an excellent post. There are a lot of people who buy some card for a cheap price and then boast about how much of a profit they made when the price goes up by some impressive sounding amount. The problem, of course, is that you actually have to realize those gains and actually doing so is quite difficult. This issue comes up every fall in a big way- the standard format changes a lot and people need new decks for states, so they'll pay a lot, which means that SCG and Co. can have extortionate prices for a few weeks. Then the people who bought a "20 dollar card" for 5 dollars talk about what geniuses they are and proceed to hold onto the card and watch it fall to less than what they bought it for. This concept is also important when it comes to financial writers- they'll often "review" their predictions and point if you had followed their recommendation and bought a card that started at 7, went to 10 and settled at 2 you could have made "40% profit" if you timed it right.

I bought 93 Whipflares last month and flipped them three days later for about 60% profit to dealer buylists. Same for nearly one hundred Vapor Snags. It's foolish to hold onto cards long after dealers will pay more on buylists than you paid. You just need to halfway know what you're doing. It seems like you're saying that financial speculation is dumb because some people hold onto their cards for too long. Which is fine; I'll continue to make free money in the meantime.

Also, if you don't buy cards that aren't good in Legacy, you miss the Dungeon Geists of sets.

[Offler]

I dunno about Zealous Conscripts being a sleeper, but I agree completely with the article.

I haven't pre-ordered anything. I'll wait for prices to stop fluctuating. I might think Temporal Mastery is/will be broken at some point, but I'm not dropping $40.00 on it until I know it's actually worth spending that much money.

From my point of view temporal mastery was designed to make such murmur as it does. It really needs a miracle to be cast for 2 mana. Are there any cantrips like Brainstorm/Senseis top in current standard? AFAIK no... Correct me if I am wrong.

At all I compared Temporal Mastery to other blue card - Tamiyo while focusing on EDH as a format. Temporal mastery is then completely useless and it definitely needs a miracle to do something in deck. Tamiyo then can be used as mana/creature stopper or "not as random" card draw. it means that it specifically fits in my EDH deck...

It really depends much on format and its current state.

[csy]

The only reason I ordered my 4 mastery was because I found them on eBay at 22-27 each with free shipping. I just can't see how in the coming sets that card won't peak out again. When they drop I'll pick up 'pimp' versions. I also ordered 10 reforge the soul while they were at 4 bucks. And I ordered quite a few entreat the angels while they were around 6 bucks. Caverns at 20 Gris at 7 etc. I don't feel that any of those cards are going to have a hard time netting me profit. Be it trade or eBay or dealer buy list.

[dahcmai]

Well, the peak out will be this weekend for most of the new set. It's legal and being played for the first time in a SCG tournament so you know whatever wins will drive the price hard with all the sheeople. Get your Ebay buttons ready to click sell!

[csy]

I disagree with that, its going to be determined on the decks for sure, but I dont think this is the peak time for any of those cards. When I bought my pre-re swords of feast and famine/war and piece/body and mind they didnt show true value until a couple months ago. I even went in and bought MORE FaF and WaP when they were down at 11 bucks each. I watch the card market a lot, and buy/sell accordingly. Liliana is the only miss I've really seen lately toward my investments. I didnt sell when I could have for 80 each.

[hi-val]

The only reason I ordered my 4 mastery was because I found them on eBay at 22-27 each with free shipping. I just can't see how in the coming sets that card won't peak out again. When they drop I'll pick up 'pimp' versions. I also ordered 10 reforge the soul while they were at 4 bucks. And I ordered quite a few entreat the angels while they were around 6 bucks. Caverns at 20 Gris at 7 etc. I don't feel that any of those cards are going to have a hard time netting me profit. Be it trade or eBay or dealer buy list.


You raise a really nice point because these are scalable cards. They go up in power as the card pool increases. The more library manipulation we get, the better they'll get. It's like Tooth and Nail. Tooth gets better every time a new set comes out because there are chances at new creatures to Tooth up. Academy Ruins benefits from every new sackable artifact. The Miracles benefit whenever you get an effect like Halimar Depths. We won't see the magnitude of scalability that Tooth has, but there's some built in.

It's strange to think about, but there are very few magic cards that get better with each set.