Cook’s Kitchen – Modern Masters & Legacy

[Bryant Cook]

Cook’s Kitchen – Modern Masters & Legacy (http://jupitergames.info/articles/2012/51867/cooks-kitchen-modern-masters-legacy)

Article.

[LennonMarx]

Good article as always. Quick question. In the article you mention that you currently aren't the happiest with the format. What do you not like about it and what do you think could be done to make it better?

[Amon Amarth]

Good article as always. Quick question. In the article you mention that you currently aren't the happiest with the format. What do you not like about it and what do you think could be done to make it better?

That little snippet of the article stood out to me too. Good material for a new article, I think.

[Smmenen]

Cook’s Kitchen – Modern Masters & Legacy (http://jupitergames.info/articles/2012/51867/cooks-kitchen-modern-masters-legacy)

Article.



if Star City Games stopped doing Legacy events, I’d then say, “We have a problem.” Although, I don’t think this would ever happen. The reason being, like for Wizards, it’s not in their best interest

How naive.

It's not a matter of if, but when, SCG drops Legacy Opens in favor of Modern Opens (for the most part (meaning most, but not necessarily all)).

It might not be 2013 or even 2014, but it is certainly in the foreseeable future (although I think it will happen by 2014).

It's incredibly simple:

Wizards is going to be promoting Modern. Hard. Really Hard.

It's going to be a PTQ format. Eventually, Modern WILL surpass Legacy in popularity. And when it does, it will be in the "self interest" of SCG to switch from Legacy Opens to Modern. When that happens, well, "We have a problem," to quote someone knowledgeable.

[lordofthepit]

How naive.

It's not a matter of if, but when, SCG drops Legacy Opens in favor of Modern Opens (for the most part (meaning most, but not necessarily all)).

How presumptuous.

Unless you're sitting on some insider information, we have no idea what SCG will do. Your speculation may prove to be correct (or it can go the way of Temporal Mastery), but you can't just say something that definitive without being called out on it.

This is what we do know (my opinions clarifying in italics):
1) SCG has committed to holding Legacy Opens every week, with no Modern Opens, for the entirety of 2013.
2) SCG has not yet committed to any decision beyond 2013, or at least has not disclosed that.
3) An SCG representative has bluntly stated on behalf of the entire store that they think Legacy is the better format. Statements are rarely this strongly worded.
4) Legacy has always been a format minimally supported by Wizards in comparison with others such as Extended, but it was still blossoming because of organic interest by the player base, at the LGS level as well as on the SCG circuit.
5) Legacy Opens are a loss leader for SCG. Despite this, they continue to be steadfast in their support. I certainly don't have access to their financial data, but my conjecture based on these observations is that their continued support of Legacy is lucrative for them with regards to singles sales.
6) Modern appeals to most of its current player base not because of the inherent merits of the format, but because it has a lower barrier to entry than Legacy and a lower price of upkeep than Standard. Therefore, it does not make sense for SCG to support Modern. If Modern remains a "poor man's Legacy", it would not be as financially lucrative. If Modern staples take off in price as a result of increased demand, players will continue to be priced out. There is the possibility that it can be extremely profitable based on sheer volume alone, but it is unlikely that this can be true for both Modern and Standard, and we can be almost certain that Standard isn't going anywhere.

It's certainly possible that SCG will announce Modern Opens in 2014. Hell, it's possible they may change their mind and go with Modern in 2013. Or maybe the world will end this December. But there's no way anyone can make such a statement with the absolute certainty that you convey.

[Esper3k]

I thought Ben Bleiweiss had posted on here (I can't find the post) that the Legacy Opens were doing better than ever for SCG?

[alderon666]

I thought Ben Bleiweiss had posted on here (I can't find the post) that the Legacy Opens were doing better than ever for SCG?

Better than ever is just about 50-55% of the T2 attendence. The question is, how much better can Modern do?

Also, just because Legacy cards have a greater base value does it mean that they are much more lucrative to sell than Modern cards?

[Darkenslight]

Better than ever is just about 50-55% of the T2 attendence. The question is, how much better can Modern do?

Also, just because Legacy cards have a greater base value does it mean that they are much more lucrative to sell than Modern cards?

Well, a single Beta USea is being sold at a $100 profit, with Unlimited being sold at a $70 profit.

To compare, an Overgrown Tomb is being sold at a $5 profit with 24 RTR nonfoil being in stock. So their entire stock of Overgrown Tomb just overshadows the Beta USea. IT takes half their stock on the foil version to do the same.

It's a similar situation for Temple Garden, with the exception of Japanese/Korean foils being available on SCG right now.

I suspect that Modern sells more bulk, but Legacy sells at a greater profit on a per-card basis.

[HammerAndSickled]

The other issue is that, for better or worse, SCG has complete dominance over the legacy singles market. Wizards can control the secondary market for modern cards to an extent since every card is reprintable, and other stores are at least competitively invested in Standard/Modern markets, but StarCity probably does the most sales and has the most inventory of Legacy staples. Since they set buylist prices for nearly everything relevant in legacy, they control both the supply and demand of Legacy cards more than any other retailer.

[alderon666]

Well, a single Beta USea is being sold at a $100 profit, with Unlimited being sold at a $70 profit.

To compare, an Overgrown Tomb is being sold at a $5 profit with 24 RTR nonfoil being in stock. So their entire stock of Overgrown Tomb just overshadows the Beta USea. IT takes half their stock on the foil version to do the same.

It's a similar situation for Temple Garden, with the exception of Japanese/Korean foils being available on SCG right now.

I suspect that Modern sells more bulk, but Legacy sells at a greater profit on a per-card basis.

I would prefer to see some numbers from Revised Dual lands. Unlimited and up cards are more of a collector's item, the amount of that kind of card that's bought/sold is probably very, very low.

[(nameless one)]

Didn't SCG heavily supported Type 1 back in the early 2000s? And to an extent bought Mana Drain?

We can't really tell what will happen. It will all depend on the secondary market and the money flow of Legacy and anything related to the format to SCG.

[Smmenen]

How presumptuous.

Oh really?

Which position is more reasonable?

1) SCG will never drop Legacy for Modern. (Bryant Cook: “ if Star City Games stopped doing Legacy events, I’d then say, “We have a problem.” Although, I don’t think this would ever happen.”)

2) SCG will eventually switch from to Modern (Me: “It's not a matter of if, but when, SCG drops Legacy Opens in favor of Modern Opens”)

The position that is both naïve and presumptuous is not mine.

Bryant’s position is supported by little more than hope. My position is supported by undeniable facts, logic, and one empirically supported assumption about SCG's business model.

First: Legacy is land-locked. Literally. There is a ceiling to Legacy’s potential growth. The Reserved List limits access to the most important deck building elements of the format, and any increase in demand results in an increase in price, such that there is a ceiling to growth.

Second: No such ceiling exists for Modern. Wizards has as an explicit goal to fashion modern as a substitute (perhaps imperfect) for Legacy.

Third: There is a paradoxical dynamic at work: SCG’s support for Legacy generates demand for the format, which results in increased prices, which makes it harder to grow the format.

Fourth: For an application of the principle just described, see Vintage. If we are being empirical, one only need to look at what happened to Vintage. Before the first SCG P9 tournament, Power had been stable in price for nearly 7 years. When SCG supported Vintage, power spiked, climbing in price over and over again to unsustainable levels because it made the format far too cost prohibitive to enter. When that mathematical limit was reached and became increasingly evident, SCG dropped Vintage.

Fifth: at some point, Modern will exceed Legacy in popularity. This is inevitable given the amount of resources and support that WOTC has signaled it is giving Modern.

Sixth: If we assume that SCG is a rational, profit seeking business, at some point after Modern overtakes Legacy in popularity, SCG will switch to Modern. SCG is a business, and a very successful one. They are in the business of making money, not supporting formats as a charity case. At some point, the return for supporting Modern will be too great to resist, even when you factor in secondary market sales. At that point, or some point thereafter, SCG will switch to modern.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, because this point is easily overlooked:

When SCG started running Legacy events, there was already an existing player base to draw from. No such player base exists for Modern. Yet, it will come into existence. Modern Masters, a long Modern PTQ season & GPs, and sustained WOTC support will create that market.

SCG is not in the business of creating a player base. What they are in the business of is expanding and growing existing player bases by drawing upon what already exists.
Right now Modern seems like a fabricated format. But over time, and with careful nurturing support and maintenance, it will become an organic, fun format. When that happens, SCG will be poised to swoop in and take advantage of it. Until then, it makes sense for SCG to support Legacy.

If you were going to bet your children’s college savings on who was right: me or Bryant, where would you put your money?

[Michael Keller]

Oh really?

First: Legacy is land-locked. Literally. There is a ceiling to Legacy’s potential growth. The Reserved List limits access to the most important deck building elements of the format, and any increase in demand results in an increase in price, such that there is a ceiling to growth.

Second: No such ceiling exists for Modern. Wizards has as an explicit goal to fashion modern as a substitute (perhaps imperfect) for Legacy

Well, there might be a "ceiling" for Legacy, but there is a "bottom line" that exists for Modern, which in fact limits players to how far back in Magic's history they can delve into. One of the primary reasons of Legacy's appeal is the flexibility for players to be able to dip into virtually every card in Magic's history. The price barrier is obviously a concern, but the fact is Legacy is - and will NEVER be - as close to Vintage in regards to cost-barrier. Not ten, not twenty years from now. Never.

And Modern will never be a model substitute for Legacy, because both have explicit aesthetic characteristics designed and played for completely different reasons. If Modern somehow replaces Legacy - so to speak - and considering Vintage's obvious cost barrier - you will have almost ten (10) years' worth of cards that will never see play, effectively suspended in time in the event Legacy goes wayward.

This could obviously be corrected if Wizards does something to overhaul Legacy or help the cost-barrier of the format.

[Koby]

I have to agree strongly with Stephen here. While I love playing Legacy and enjoy SCG's fervent support of this format, their entire venture into hosting Legacy tournaments is to buy and sell cards. While it's true that Legacy singles generate more marginal profit per Buy/Sell transaction, their volume is curbed by total cost.

It shouldn't be a surprise that Standard rares can generate more profit in total compared to Legacy. Modern, by extension of Standard and re-print sets, will also eventually reach the point that marginal profits that Legacy singles enjoy, while also maintaining volume.

I have no doubt in my mind that the question really is "when" rather than "if" that SCG Open will become Modern.

This has nothing to do with the diversity of Legacy vs Modern.
This has nothing to do with the economics of barrier to entry between Legacy & Modern.[1]

It has everything to do with people in seats, and demand for singles.

[1] On a long enough timeline and limited reprints, Modern may end up costing on par with Legacy. Case in point are $30 Ravnica duallands prior to RTR, whose only demand was Modern. With enough demand we'll see price creep up. When the switch from Legacy to Modern happens, we'll see this jump in Modern too, just as it happened when SCG Opens became a weekly phenomenon.

I will enjoy playing the Legacy opens for as long as they are run, but I'm not under any illusion that this is a lasting thing.

[Smmenen]

I will enjoy playing the Legacy opens for as long as they are run, but I'm not under any illusion that this is a lasting thing.

Which is exactly the right attitude to have.

I'm not disagreeing with Bryan to be contrarian or controversial, but because I don't want people to be unrealistic here and think, as he does, that SCG is going to support Legacy forever ("I don’t think this would ever happen.")

That's a recipe to be severely disappointed some day.

[KevinTrudeau]

Oh really?

Which position is more reasonable?

1) SCG will never drop Legacy for Modern. (Bryant Cook: “ if Star City Games stopped doing Legacy events, I’d then say, “We have a problem.” Although, I don’t think this would ever happen.”)

2) SCG will eventually switch from to Modern (Me: “It's not a matter of if, but when, SCG drops Legacy Opens in favor of Modern Opens”)

The position that is both naïve and presumptuous is not mine.

Bryant’s position is supported by little more than hope. My position is supported by undeniable facts, logic, and one empirically supported assumption about SCG's business model.

First: Legacy is land-locked. Literally. There is a ceiling to Legacy’s potential growth. The Reserved List limits access to the most important deck building elements of the format, and any increase in demand results in an increase in price, such that there is a ceiling to growth.

Second: No such ceiling exists for Modern. Wizards has as an explicit goal to fashion modern as a substitute (perhaps imperfect) for Legacy.

Third: There is a paradoxical dynamic at work: SCG’s support for Legacy generates demand for the format, which results in increased prices, which makes it harder to grow the format.

Fourth: For an application of the principle just described, see Vintage. If we are being empirical, one only need to look at what happened to Vintage. Before the first SCG P9 tournament, Power had been stable in price for nearly 7 years. When SCG supported Vintage, power spiked, climbing in price over and over again to unsustainable levels because it made the format far too cost prohibitive to enter.

Fifth: at some point, Modern will exceed Legacy in popularity. This is inevitable given the amount of resources and support that WOTC has signaled it is giving Modern.

Sixth: If we assume that SCG is a rational, profit seeking business, at some point after Modern overtakes Legacy in popularity, SCG will switch to Modern. SCG is a business, and a very successful one. They are in the business of making money, not supporting formats as a charity case. At some point, the return for supporting Modern will be too great to resist, even when you factor in secondary market sales. At that point, or some point thereafter, SCG will switch to modern.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, because this point is easily overlooked:

When SCG started running Legacy events, there was already an existing player base to draw from. No such player base exists for Modern. Yet, it will come into existence. Modern Masters, a long Modern PTQ season & GPs, and sustained WOTC support will create that market.

SCG is not in the business of creating a player base. What they are in the business of is expanding and growing existing player bases by drawing upon what already exists.
Right now Modern seems like a fabricated format. But over time, and with careful nurturing support and maintenance, it will become an organic, fun format. When that happens, SCG will be poised to swoop in and take advantage of it. Until then, it makes sense for SCG to support Legacy.

If you were going to bet your children’s college savings on who was right: me or Bryant, where would you put your money?

Your argument is quite cogent (to answer your Child-Clown college savings question, I would put my money on you; my guess for when Sunday Modern Opens will probably usurp Legacy ones would be Q1 2015), though to nitpick, I don't necessarily agree with the portions of your post I boldfaced, as they're not backed by empirical evidence; lest we not forget, Extended was pushed by WotC very mightily each winter, yet never really caught on for the most part outside of PTQ season, and eventually eroded as a guileless shoreline sandcastle would within reach of a Lake Powderhorn crest due to being a shitty format. If Modern's a shitty format (even though I'm talking out of my ass when I say this: it probably is, at least at this juncture), I could see the exact same occurrence occur and Legacy continue to thrive because of it, unless WotC is willing to go even further than what was Extended's largely seasonal level of promotion and promote it on a scale similar to Standard, which, for the most part, sees play regardless of how shitty it is and how expensive it is to break into.

Honestly though, another point needs to be brought up— how shitty Legacy could potentially get if it continues along the course it's been along for the past eighteen months or so (I hear ya, TeenieBopper/Nightmare). While I don't think Legacy should be labelled 'shitty' in the slightest at this time, I do think it as a format has been on a slow decline since ~autumn 2010, and could reasonably be considered stale at this juncture. If Legacy becomes shitty, the verdict's out over it thriving to the degree it has in the same plane as a more accessible and better-promoted Eternal format in Modern.

[Fossil4182]

To be fair, Ben Bleiweiss tweeted this week: "SCG has no intention of running Modern Opens. We feel Legacy is a better format, and plan on continuing it in 2013." (As an aside, I don't think anyone is defending that SCG would immediately transition away from Legacy in the next 12 months)

First, I don't believe the reason SCG prefers Legacy is because its a "better format" (see below). However, if the real reason is that SCG believes Legacy is a better format, Modern is still young and will balance out over the next few months/years. The DCI has already demonstrated it will be very liberal using the Banned and Restricted List in order to shape Modern. There are probably a few other cards that need to banned and some should be unrestricted, but it will eventually even out. WotC through printings and the DCI through the use of the B&R can resolve this issue in relatively short order.

Scarcity, not Star City Games, is what controls the future of Legacy. Legacy, as a format, is defined by certain cards of which most appear on the Reserve List (Dual Lands). If one looks at Legacy through a lens of economics, its going to collapse. There is a finite supply of cards which runs up against increasing demand. The result has been steep price escalation. A Revised Underground Sea in MP condition cost $28.99 in 2008 and costs $129.99 in 2012. That degree of price escalation is replicated to varying degrees across the other Reserve List staples. This escalation will stop once it becomes too expensive to purchase cards at which point the market collapses. When I say the "market collapses" it doesn't mean Legacy dies, just that the popularity bubble bursts. I doubt anyone would argue that SCG makes significant profits on Legacy cards now. The problem is that since the cost of the cards will continue to rise, it will eventually reach a point where the cards are too expensive and no one will buy. This issue also impedes the development of a sustainable framework to recruit new players. Modern, with all of the reprints, becomes a more more appealing option given that it will be much cheaper to enter the format for new players. This is especially true of younger players and standard players who can use their new RtR lands to enter into an eternal format.

SCG, as proven with Legacy and Vintage, can make a format popular simply by hosting events. Personally, I believe the reason SCG does not run Modern Opens is because Legacy is more profitable in their estimation. That calculation will ultimately change because Legacy isn't sustainable economically. What I'm trying to clarify is that this is more of a question of economics than satisfying popularity (which SCG can create) or format quality (which WotC and the DCI can shape).

[Fizzeler]

As people have stated SCG will likely stop supporting Legacy when it becomes profitable to do, I see this happening by maybe 2014 (maybe I see it as gradual so I expect first we will see Modern IQs), the other solution is they host both alternating week by week (which is another likely scenario so they can still profit off the Legacy scene while also profiting off the Modern scene) or they could just extend their Opens to host all 3 formats (very unlikely), there are many possibilities, but I still don't believe SCG abandoning Legacy will kill the format, I mean they could abandon Standard and support Modern and Legacy for their Opens (I can dream can't I?)

How I believe it will initially begin is they start hosting a Modern Challenge instead of the Legacy Challenge on Saturdays, as of now Modern side events at the Opens aren't firing as often as Legacy ones (in the events I have gone to I have not seen a single Modern event fire)

Another effect could be the opposite with Modern Masters, where we see a growth of Legacy and a push for a Legacy Chronicles where format staples are reprinted causing the format to grow, WotC may be pushing Modern as a format, but they never stopped supporting Legacy and are even printing cards that can only be played in Eternal Formats (which Modern isn't)

[walker]

Keep in mind SCG is not the only event organizer capable of running a legacy open series. If the format can't grow because of availability it means there are tons of people with legacy decks around the globe. People played legacy before SCG opens, and if they stop, I imagine the format will still have a strong following.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

FWIW (not a substantive comment or one on quality, obv.):

Boarders: People who use boards to propel themselves, or people who spend x amount of nights somewhere (e.g. an inn).
Borders: The white, black, and gold things that frame Magic cards.

[MirrorMask]

Lets look at it this way:

If wizards promotes HEAVILY Modern then it will draw all the Modern players to their tournaments and promote the sale of sealed products like modern masters. If these tournaments are much more frequent than lets say 3 times a year then SCG probably won't see much profit in this format as someone else will be dominating the sector(and not just someone random, WIZARDS with worldwide tours!!!), thus they will continue to sanction Legacy tournaments as they already are the biggest player there and maybe have some Modern as well. If wizards does not make very frequent events then I guess there will be enough profit to cause a change of plans. Of course even if SCG stops promoting legacy someone else will. Even with a fixed player base there is a huge profit potential-no one can deny it.

Now something somewhat relevant as I have seen many mentions on various forums (and on this one). The reserved list. Some say it must be abolished and some disagree. I also believe that must be abolished but mass reprints should NEVER happen.

What I believe would be more clever is to calculate the number of the players who want to enter the stagnant (by then) Legacy and how many of them are likely to stay for long in the game. Then calculate those who leave on a yearly basis and never return or return after some years. Then take a look at the decks being played and the price barrier this presents by requiring specific cards to own for a formidable competitive deck. The difference between the actual demand and offer is the number or reprints needed per year. Now, as it is a collectible game the prices should be held at some acceptable level (both from player and vendor perspective) so
reprinting a bit less than the actual extra demand might be a good idea as it keeps the system going.

Regarding the preservation of the reserved list: Some people say that it will affect the prices of highly collectible pieces. True. But not by much. A beta dual is gonna stay a beta dual no matter how many times it gets reprinted. The collectible value of these cards will be the same while only the extra, play value they have accumulated (and this is the problem)will take some hit- but not too much to cause delirium to neither the collectors nor the players. Also, in this list there are many (85-90% ??) really low value cards. Whats the point of keeping the list then? It has failed as the prices of these are only cents. The list will probably be abolished when there is profit to be made, but certainly not now.

I believe Modern Masters to be the first move towards this direction as making eternal format products is something new. What I foresee is that in the future (distant future? I do not know) Modern and Legacy will come really close to one another and maybe merge as the need for more "broken, fast, weird-you name it" decks will rise as modern payers get bored of the ban list that limits their choices. By then they will have accumulated pretty much any broken card Legacy has to offer but the dual lands. Do you really think the transition to Legacy will be hard at that point? Even if Legaycy doesn't exist anymore, modern will actually be really, really close to becoming Legacy itself. Never forget that this game since its beginning had an eternal format for the old players. Well guess what? The old players are still around and spend way too much money on it to be ignored.

Finally, I do believe that wizards hasn't forgotten Legacy. It is a profitable format if they choose to control it; they just don't do it because they don't have to do anything right now as it functions alone (with some help from SCG- and maybe there is some sort of agreement between them to be done this way)Of course I may be wrong as I am not a professional (although i hope to be one day...) and I don't have information on these two companies but this is the feeling I have.


EDIT: holy *** that is a really big post! sorry about that...

[Julian23]

The white, black, and gold things that frame Magic cards.

No love for Ass Whuppin'? :cry:

[Star|Scream]

FWIW (not a substantive comment or one on quality, obv.):

Boarders: People who use boards to propel themselves, or people who spend x amount of nights somewhere (e.g. an inn).
Borders: The white, black, and gold things that frame Magic cards.

Agreed. It made me cringe.

[SaberTooth]

i think that legacy will find it way to survive, i also believe that wizards won't kill it