[Primer/Deck] Belcher

[AmokPL]

noob question - if you have a hand which allows you to put Belcher but not to activate it would you keep it or bin it? I know it depends whether you expect it to be countered, if that is a hand of 7 or 6, how much mana will you need to activate it but is this a sensible way to play?

[ahg113]

I'd keep that hand, all things being equal. Maybe try to slow play the hand, if the next draw step allows you to cast and activate. It really depends on what you're playing against- will they draw into counterspells, will they draw into other forms of hate. But yeah, you can put an opponent on tilt by casting a Belcher and them just looking at their potential game loss on the table across from them.

Also, keep the hand because each mulligan is going to make it harder and harder to win.

[AmokPL]

I'd keep that hand, all things being equal. Maybe try to slow play the hand, if the next draw step allows you to cast and activate. It really depends on what you're playing against- will they draw into counterspells, will they draw into other forms of hate. But yeah, you can put an opponent on tilt by casting a Belcher and them just looking at their potential game loss on the table across from them.

Also, keep the hand because each mulligan is going to make it harder and harder to win.

thanks. got one more question regarding Diminishing Returns. What is it's purpose? I noticed that if I gathered enough mana/storm to cast Burning Wish for a 4cmc tool why not go for Empty? I tried once to grab Returns to try it and ended up with a hand of 7 manamakers, huge storm but no kill.

[P-E]

it is there when you can't kill with goblins, like when your opponent has a ratchet bomb or some sweepers( seen from gitaxian probe before its ban haha) etc it's clunky but it's mandatory

[Ronald Deuce]

noob question - if you have a hand which allows you to put Belcher but not to activate it would you keep it or bin it? I know it depends whether you expect it to be countered, if that is a hand of 7 or 6, how much mana will you need to activate it but is this a sensible way to play?

Peanut butter and JAAAAAAAAM. Especially if you can get to five or six mana without sacrificing Petals; you'll be Daze proof, and (maindeck?) Abrupt Decay isn't boss enough to hit our Goblin of Arson Gun.


thanks. got one more question regarding Diminishing Returns. What is it's purpose? I noticed that if I gathered enough mana/storm to cast Burning Wish for a 4cmc tool why not go for Empty? I tried once to grab Returns to try it and ended up with a hand of 7 manamakers, huge storm but no kill.

If you end up with mana floating and you've only used one Wish to get you there, you're more likely to kill with Tendrils than you are to come up empty. That's actually one reason I'm coming around to Manamorphose in the new metagame.

Another thing about Diminishing Returns: it forces the opponent to mulligan. Not as good in Legacy as it is in Commander (and definitely no good against control), but still something to bear in mind.

[Namida]

noob question - if you have a hand which allows you to put Belcher but not to activate it would you keep it or bin it? I know it depends whether you expect it to be countered, if that is a hand of 7 or 6, how much mana will you need to activate it but is this a sensible way to play?

In order for any Belcher hand to do anything, you need:

Business
At least one initial mana source to cast your fast mana
At least two other mana cards to get you to 4+ mana in order to cast your business

I would likely keep every hand that is capable of actually making plays on turn 1. You haven't provided any context that would make me choose not to keep that hand--if there is any consideration for throwing that sort of hand back, it would be entirely based on the number of mana sources available after putting Belcher in play.

Your cards are very redundant, but you're playing a 4+ card combo deck. If you mulligan, what are the odds that your new hand would actually be functional, let alone kill faster than playing Turn 1 Belcher and waiting for mana?


thanks. got one more question regarding Diminishing Returns. What is it's purpose? I noticed that if I gathered enough mana/storm to cast Burning Wish for a 4cmc tool why not go for Empty? I tried once to grab Returns to try it and ended up with a hand of 7 manamakers, huge storm but no kill.

Diminishing Returns is for situations where Empty the Warrens is too slow. Empty the Warrens making less than 20 Goblins gives your opponent two turns to respond. Against opposing combo decks like Storm, Reanimator etc., that's very likely not fast enough to win before your opponent performs their own combo. In those situations, having the option to cast Diminishing Returns opens up many options that wouldn't leave you dead to an opposing combo; you could possibly kill with Belcher, possibly kill with Tendrils if you're playing one, possibly make 20+ Goblins with Empty the Warrens to take a turn off of your clock, possibly give your opponent a non-functional hand, and in some cases it's relevant that you shuffled your opponent's graveyard into their library

[AmokPL]

awesome. thank you all for the answers.

[Trall]

Hi there,

I haven't been active for a long time but I have updated the .PDF with 2 lists that include Street Wraith in order to take the probe's ban into account : http://trall3.free.fr/belcher/Belcher.pdf

TLDR :
- Swap probe for SW, still good but ~1 gob less on average
- Keep playing 4 wraith and don't go full ritual !

By the way something interesting came through my head : what if we had 4 probe & 4 wraith instead of mox & P. Ritual... I have made 1 simulation (not written in the doc since it's not usefull anymore) but :
- ***** hand dropped to 17.6 % instead of 18.4 % --> very good
- Belcher win T1 up to 13.2 % instead of 11.8 % (T1 win) + 1.2 % (T2 win) --> faster and overall a little better
- Gob's 31.1 % instead of ~30.5 % (less fizzle hand -> more gob's hand)
- Mean gob : 13.7 +- 3.5 (= the same)

The fact that we increase overall fizzle rate & belcher T1 seems quite fun (but belcher dropped T1 and activated T2 drop to ~0 % in this case cause no mox in list) but well... This list is now illegal.

Please keep in mind that chrome mox are good for :
- Persisting mana sources (= belcher t2 or grinding game)
- Recycle business spell (= OK with 11, so so with 10, and probably almost bad with 8 (or 9) BP)

Which isn't exaclty in the objective of maximizing T1 win / action that's why I still love the 2 moxen in the recommanded list.

Feel free to discuss Smile
By the way if you have specific list to test that aren't close to the one in the doc, I can provide results.

[Ronald Deuce]

Anyone been tinkering with the new Sphinx? I've been goldfishing it in All Spells, and I think it's got promise.

[FTW]

Anyone been tinkering with the new Sphinx? I've been goldfishing it in All Spells, and I think it's got promise.

The Scry 3 sphinx? Why??? When is Belcher ever going to draw the top 3 cards?

If you're on the play, you hope to never see any of those 3 cards before deploying your win condition (Belcher/goblins), even if you don't win turn 1.

If you're on the draw, maybe the free Portent fixing your first draw could help improve the quality of your hand. But then you're also playing with a dead card in hand, so best case the Sphinx digs you into another card to make up for the dud in your hand. Seems terribad.

[Ronald Deuce]

The Scry 3 sphinx? Why??? When is Belcher ever going to draw the top 3 cards?

If you're on the play, you hope to never see any of those 3 cards before deploying your win condition (Belcher/goblins), even if you don't win turn 1.

If you're on the draw, maybe the free Portent fixing your first draw could help improve the quality of your hand. But then you're also playing with a dead card in hand, so best case the Sphinx digs you into another card to make up for the dud in your hand. Seems terribad.

Feels no worse than Probe in a number of situations; seems like picking six out of ten for our first draw step may be better than picking seven out of seven. But maybe you're right. That's why I was asking. I'll concede readily that the reason I'm interested in using it in All Spells is that the deck needs better consistency and protection, which the card appears to facilitate.

[FTW]

Feels no worse than Probe in a number of situations; seems like picking six out of ten for our first draw step may be better than picking seven out of seven. But maybe you're right. That's why I was asking. I'll concede readily that the reason I'm interested in using it in All Spells is that the deck needs better consistency and protection, which the card appears to facilitate.

Might be true for All Spells more than Belcher.

Belcher wants to cast Empty/Belcher turn 1, before you draw those top cards.

Belcher needs 5-6 cards to go off and cares about storm count. Being down a card makes a big difference (EtW for 8 gobs is jank; EtW for 12 vs EtW for 10 could be an extra turn for the opponent). Then what if you draw multiple Sphinxes? 2 Sphinx + 2 Land Grant = cringe. Terribad. You could have 5 free Vampiric Tutors after that and still lose. Your next draws just don't matter when the opener is that useless. All Spells has room for dead slots like Chancellor, so I assume you don't need as many cards to go off and have more room for Sphinx.

Belcher's also more redundant. Each draw is roughly +1 mana. They all serve the same function. It doesn't really matter what the next one is, just that you have a critical mass to go off. Being short a card hurts more than being able to sometimes scry away extra Land Grants/Chrome Mox/wincons.

I guess Probe was less good in All Spells. In Belcher it's free storm. The information helps too. With Burning Wish to fetch answers and the choice between EtW and Belcher sometimes, you can choose between multiple lines of play to work around hate if you know what's there. In All Spells you have no Wishboard and are always doing the same thing, so the information might be less of a big deal. Losing Probe hurt this deck. This thread's been dead since the ban. The Recross the Paths version I helped build is completely dead now, since it needed those free cantrips.

[escobert]

Anyone trying Experimental Frenzy? I added one to the list, I initially cut a Seething Song but am not trying only 2 Empty. I've really liked seeing it in my opening hand, I've made 20+ goblins several times.

Someone did 5-0 with Belcher recently and I've been having a good time with it on MTGO. I don't think the deck is completely dead yet, losing Probe did hurt a lot though.

[mistercakes]

might as well comment on this thread too:


// 60 Maindeck
// 16 Artifact
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Chrome Mox

// 12 Creature
4 Tinder Wall
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide

// 12 Instant
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Seething Song
4 Manamorphose

// 1 Land
1 Taiga

// 19 Sorcery
4 Burning Wish
4 Rite of Flame
4 Land Grant
3 Timetwister
3 Empty the Warrens
1 Gamble


// 4 Sideboard
// 4 Sorcery
SB: 1 Gamble
SB: 1 Timetwister
SB: 1 Tendrils of Agony
SB: 1 Empty the Warrens


where do we go from here? is there a way to finally commit to something less cannony after game 1? or does this just improve our win rate and we take it?

[Final Fortune]

The new Twister is an ok SB card but a bad MD card, the deck's problem isn't threats and if you're lucky enough to resolve LED/Twister the first time vs Island.dec then you're not going to be lucky the second time you give them a new 7. Just add more mana, Chancellor of the Tangle or Grim Monolith are the last of the playable accelerants that I can think of.

[mistercakes]

i disagree here. if you play belcher you need to play with a certain philosophy.

the philosophy is: i don't care about FoW.

opening hand pre echo: you can slam goblins/belcher turn 1, or you can die to FoW. you might be able to grind your way back, and that's fine too.
opening hand post echo: you can slam goblins/belcher turn 1, or you can die to FoW. however, you also have more outs. if your opponent isn't playing FoW, your deck is strictly better, as now you have X more playable cards. if your opponent cannot counter with first hand, but could counter with second hand, it's possible that you have enough cards to jam through their counter, or you just hard cast an empty off the new 7.


// 60 Maindeck
// 14 Artifact
3 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
3 Chrome Mox

// 12 Creature
4 Tinder Wall
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide

// 12 Instant
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Seething Song
4 Manamorphose

// 1 Land
1 Taiga

// 21 Sorcery
4 Burning Wish
4 Rite of Flame
4 Land Grant
3 Timetwister
3 Empty the Warrens
3 Gamble


// 15 Sideboard
// 4 Creature
SB: 4 Xantid Swarm

// 2 Instant
SB: 2 Autumn's Veil

// 9 Sorcery
SB: 1 Gamble
SB: 1 Timetwister
SB: 1 Tendrils of Agony
SB: 1 Empty the Warrens
SB: 1 Grapeshot
SB: 1 Telemin Performance
SB: 1 Reverent Silence
SB: 1 Shattering Spree
SB: 1 Pyroclasm


i was last at 4 belcher and 2 gamble (and 1 gamble sb). someone on the facebook thread suggested 0 belcher and 4 gamble. i still want to have at least 6 cards that kill on turn 1 without requiring any twisting.

i'm still on the fence about 3 belcher, and might go back to 4 belcher 2 gamble.

i haven't gotten a chance to play post board, but there's a good chance the autumn's veil in this version might be better than xantid swarm. it's probably unlikely though as xantid is insane and can give you free wins against show and tell.

after about 50 goldfishes i don't think i've wished for gamble more than 1 time, it's probably better as a goblin war strike

[crowe_1]

What’s the reasoning behind Gamble? Is there some interaction I’m missing or is it just to grab a combo piece and pray? Or is it Echo of Eternity 5 and 6?

[mistercakes]

It can find echo or led. (if searching for led, there is a chance you will hit it)

[t000]

Shatterskull Smashing and Turntimber Symbiosis

I see there are two new "lands". Maby they can bring Belcher up to date?

[FTW]

I guess it's time to revive Oops All Belch!


//IMS: 24
4 Shatterskull Smashing
4 Turntimber Symbiosis
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Lotus Petal
4 Chrome Mox

//Other mana: 16
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Rite of Flame
4 Tinder Wall
4 Seething Song

//Cantrips: 8
4 Street Wraith
4 Manamorphose

//Business: 12
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Burning Wish
3 Recross the Paths
1 Meditate

//Sideboard: 15
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Grapeshot
1 Echo of Eons
1 Recross the Paths
1 Infernal Contract
1 Cave-In
1 Hull Breach
3 Force of Vigor
4 Xantid Swarm


Recross the Paths Belcher abuses the card Recross the Paths, which functions as super-Doomsday if your library contains no lands. Using this engine, it just tries to Belch every game. It doesn't have to pass the turn with Goblin tokens or draw the opponent 7 cards, some of the ways traditional Belcher can still lose after "going off". This build aims to win immediately on the combo turn.

Like regular Belcher, the opening hand needs 1 of 11 business spells and has 3 lines of play:
1) Belcher
2) Recross the Paths -> Set up a pile into Belcher (or Tendrils)
3) Burning Wish -> Recross the Paths -> Set up a pile into Belcher (or Tendrils)

Empty is still in the wishboard as a possible line for Burning Wish openers with high storm count (especially if they don't Force Wish, saving it for Recross), but it's not essential.

Recross Belcher was around before. One of my old posts on it is integrated into the primer. But it didn't have the spell lands back then. The biggest weakness of the older build was the lack of IMS and reusable mana sources in a 0-land build, without being able to run Land Grant and Taiga. That made it less consistent, with higher variance in the opening hands, so it never really took off beyond fringe play. Regular Belcher just had better mana. However the new spell lands change that!

The drawback of the spell lands is that they don't add to storm. Lands, spirit guides, and imprinting on Mox all reduce storm count for Empty making Empty openers weaker. This might be a problem in regular Belcher, which relies on Empty most games and risks having awkward hands with spell lands and multiple spirit guides. But it doesn't matter in the Recross build, where storm count in the opening hand doesn't matter! More lands just make it easier to play pass-the-turn Recross piles or play around postboard hate.

I haven't tested this in the new meta yet, but it could be a promising direction to revive Belcher.

[t000]

I guess it's time to revive Oops All Belch!


Verry interesting. But can you enlighten me on how Recross the Paths interacts with Belcher? I realy dont see the combo :) I guess the clue is to set up a "perfect" draw?

[FTW]

Oh sure. I can explain it.

It's old tech that had fringe tournament success a few years ago. There's a more detailed piece about it in #4 of the primer.
Edit: Apparently there was a separate Source thread made later, and it is seeing playing in Modern now too, but it must be a lot worse without LEDs
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?29649-No-Land-Belcher-Recross-the-Paths-Belcher
https://strategy.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/mtg/channelmagic-articles/deck-of-the-day-legacy-landless-belcher/

It arose as a way to remove variance from the win conditions after "going off". With 0 lands every Belch is guaranteed to kill. No awkward flipping Taiga after 2 cards. Without relying on Empty, there's also less passing the turn with goblins and having them killed or be too slow. Compared to the newer builds, there's also less randomness from getting unlucky Echoes or drawing the opponent into answers.

Recross the Paths includes a big mistake Wizards has avoided printing again: "the rest on the bottom of your library in any order". That means if you cast it and reveal 0 lands, you can rearrange your entire library in any order you want! 0-land Belcher can use it as a green Doomsday that doesn't cost life, doesn't limit you to only 5 cards, and has a less restrictive mana cost, which is pretty busted. From there you set up a winning "Doomsday pile" using Belcher cards.

Like Doomsday, you can win this turn if you have free cantrips in hand, or you can set up a "pass-the-turn" pile that wins next turn.

BASIC BELCH:
----top of library----
Street Wraith (optional to win the clash)
*Setup1 (remaining resources needed to cast Meditate)
Meditate
Lion's Eye Diamond
Lion's Eye Diamond
Any IMS
Street Wraith
Goblin Charbelcher
other cards
----bottom of library----

The plan is to make 2U and cantrip into the 1-of Meditate.
Cast Meditate and draw 4 cards: LED, LED, mana, Street Wraith
Cycle Street Wraith, hold priority, then crack the LEDs + other mana source for 7 mana
Draw Belcher with 7 mana floating.
Cast and activate Belcher FTW.

The slot Setup1 is adjusted based on your available resources: cantrips in hand and floating mana available, like how old Doomsday piles worked. Some combinations allow you to win immediately this turn after resolving Recross the Paths. Others involve passing and winning in 1-2 turns.

Options for setup1:
1) With 3 mana and 1 cantrip, setup1 = Manamorphose (filter into 2U & cantrip into Meditate)
2) With 0 mana and 2 cantrips, setup1 = LED (cantrip, hold priority, crack LED for UUU, draw Meditate)
3) With 2 mana and 2 cantrips, setup1 = Lotus Petal (use Petal for U, save LEDs for other parts of the chain)
4) With R and Rite in GY and 2 cantrips, setup1 = Rite + Manamorphose (Rite to RRR, Manamorphose to URR and draw Meditate)

If you have any of these, you can win this turn after resolving Recross.
The same combinations work with fewer cantrips by passing the turn to draw the top cards. That's useful if you don't have cantrips or need to untap to reuse mana sources.

Example: you resolve Recross with RRR floating and Street Wraith in hand, set up this pile (#1)
Manamorphose
Meditate
LED
LED
Lotus Petal
Street Wraith
Belcher

Cycle Street Wraith, drawing Manamorphose. Cast Manamorphose, filtering your mana to URR and drawing Meditate. Cast Meditate, drawing 4 cards. Play LEDs and Petal. Cycle Street Wraith, hold priority, and crack mana rocks in response for 7 mana. Draw Belcher. Cast Belcher. Activate and win.


Example: you resolve Recross with no resources, set up this pile (#2 two turns slower)
Street Wraith
LED
Meditate
LED
LED
Lotus Petal
Street Wraith
Belcher

Street Wraith probably wins the clash, returning Recross to your hand. Pass 2 turns to draw Street Wraith and LED. Cast LED. Cycle Street Wraith, hold priority, crack LED for UUU. Draw Meditate. Cast Meditate, drawing 4 cards. Play LEDs and Petal. Cycle Street Wraith, hold priority, and crack mana rocks in response for 7 mana. Draw Belcher. Cast Belcher. Activate and win. This one's not ideal because you have to pass twice, but it still sets up a winning line in the worst case scenario.

There are also other piles that can set up a Tendrils storm 10, Grapeshot storm 20, or work in answers, so you can adjust to the game state and play around disruption. I think the storm piles are slightly better, but the Belcher pile is easier to explain. They all start off with the same first few cards though (Setup1, Meditate, LED, LED) and basically abuse the brokenness of Draw 4 + multiple Black Lotuses to get going.

TENDRILS PILE:
----top of library----
Street Wraith
*Setup1
Meditate
Lion's Eye Diamond
Lion's Eye Diamond
Any free spell
Street Wraith
Manamorphose
Manamorphose
Manamorphose
Burning Wish
other cards
----bottom of library----

Set up Meditate as before, drawing 4. Cycle Street Wraith, cracking LEDs for RRRGGG. Chain Manamorphoses for storm count, filtering into something like RRRRBB. Burning Wish into Tendrils of Agony. Starting at the Setup1 spell, that's minimum 10 copies of Tendrils. Even more if you cast Recross and other spells this turn.



This build was originally designed when Gitaxian Probe was legal. Losing Probe hurts by removing easy cantrips and also removing perfect information to decide how to sculpt piles. But one weakness of the earlier builds was weaker mana without Taiga + Land Grant, and the spell lands really fix that. That should improve the consistency of opening hands and allow easier pass-the-turn piles where you untap with mana sources. It may be correct to use some split of spell lands and Chromatic Sphere so there are more cantrips.

[FTW]

I ran this through some goldfishes to test out the deck composition.


//Initial Mana Sources: 23
4 Shatterskull Smashing
4 Turntimber Symbiosis
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox

//Other mana: 15
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Rite of Flame
4 Tinder Wall
3 Desperate Ritual

//Cantrips: 10
4 Street Wraith
4 Manamorphose
2 Chromatic Star

//Business: 12
4 Burning Wish
4 Recross the Paths
3 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Meditate

//Wishboard:
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Grapeshot
1 Echo of Eons
1 Reforge the Soul
1 Infernal Contract
1 Cave-In
1 Hull Breach



20 goldfishes played. Preboard & on the play.

1) T1 Belcher, activate T2
2) T1 Belcher & activate
3) T1 Recross -> Tendrilsx14
4) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrilsx12
5) Mull to 6. T1 Wish -> Echo -> Charbelcher, activate T2
6) T1 Recross. T3 Tendrilsx10
7) T1 Recross -> Tendrilsx15
8) Mull to 6. T2 Charlbelch + activate
9) T1 Belcher+activate
10) Mull to 5. T1 Recross. T3 Tendrils.
11) Mull to 6. T2 Belcher, T3 activate
12) T1 Belcher + activate
13) Mull to 6. T2 Wish -> Empty for 12 goblins
14) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrilsx12
15) Mull to 6. T1 Belcher + activate.
16) Mull to 6. T1 Wish -> Echo -> Wish -> Tendrilsx10 *
17) T1 Belcher. Brick on 3rd mana. Turn 4 activate.
18) T2 Belcher + activate
19) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrilsx10
20) Mull to 6. T1 Wish -> Empty for 10 goblins


Belcher lines: 10 (50%)
Tendrils lines: 8 (40%)
Empty lines: 2 (10%)

7 of the 8 Tendrils plays were set up by Recross and could have been Belcher too.


Winning turn OTP
Turn 1: 7 (35%)
Turn 2: 7 (35%)
Turn 3: 3 (15%)
Turn 4: 3 (15%) 2 were Empty lines, the other was basically a fizzle

I'm counting the turn the deck actually delivered the killing blow, not the turn it plays its spells. Traditional Belcher has a high "turn 1 %" but a lot of that is just creating Goblins and turning them sideways multiple times. These turn 1s and 2s are the time of the Belcher activation or lethal Tendrils. I counted 10 Goblins on turn 1 as a turn 4 win.

The turn 1 rate should increase OTD with the 8th card.


Recross & win this turn: 2/7
Pass 1 turn: 3/7
Pass 2 turns: 2/7

Passing twice seems really bad. This is more likely to happen in this build without Probe, and Chromatic Star didn't help enough.



Card choice notes:

Desperate Ritual before Seething Song because, after some other tests, I found the deck needs more help jumping from 2 to 3 than it does from 3 to 5
I tried more rituals and down to 5-6 lands, but the lands were better most of the time as unconditional +1.
Recross has much more potential off 3 mana than after spending 5 mana and draining your hand, so I brought the 4th copy out of the Wishboard back into the main. Wish has to get Echo or Empty now, which makes Wish hands weaker without LED.
Double Charbelcher hands were annoying to cantrip into, so I cut to 3 Belchers. I will also test 3 Wish + 4 Belcher instead.
In game 16 I got the last storm for natural Tendrils by casting Shatterskull Smashing for X=0. It isn't just a land. It also has "RR: +1 storm". At X=1 it could also kill Thalia or Revoker. This is just insane value for Mountain in a storm deck!
Chromatic Star was garbage. I wanted more cantrips to speed up Recross piles, and thought the flexible cost and filtering would be good, but it's just terrible tempo. It doesn't replace Probe for many of the Recross piles, and it's really bad pre-combo.
Reforge the Soul allows a pass-the-turn pile with just 1R (e.g. 1 land + 1 accel) instead of 3 mana. Otherwise hands with 2 mana but no cantrips have to pass 2 turns. It will cost some variance in opening hands, but paying 3RR to reset vs nonblue is not terrible either.


As bad as Star was, the deck wanted something to reduce passing the turn.

I'm going to test cutting Stars for Reforge the Soul and Faithless Looting.

[FTW]

Ok Faithless Looting is amazing. It solves the cantrip problem and enables many new piles. It's also just good in natural storm chains.

I tested 20 more goldfishes with small tweaks


//Initial Mana Sources: 23
4 Shatterskull Smashing
4 Turntimber Symbiosis
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox

//Other mana: 14
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Rite of Flame
4 Tinder Wall
2 Desperate Ritual

//Cantrips: 10
4 Street Wraith
4 Manamorphose
2 Faithless Looting

//Business: 13
4 Recross the Paths
4 Goblin Charbelcher
3 Burning Wish
1 Meditate
1 Reforge the Soul

//Wishboard:
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Grapeshot
1 Echo of Eons
1 Act on Impulse
1 Cave-In
1 Hull Breach



20 more goldfishes. Preboard OTP.

1) T1 Belcher + activate
2) T1 Belcher + activate
3) Mull to 6. T2 Wish -> Act on Impulse. T3 Act -> Reforge -> Recross -> Tendrils x 17. (Slow hand, maybe I should have gone down to 5)
4) T1 Wish -> Empty for 10 goblins
5) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrils.
6) T2 Reforge -> Recross. T3 Tendrils
7) Mull to 6. T1 Recross. T2 Tendrils
8) Mull to 6. T3 Empty for 12 goblins = fizzle
9) Mull to 6. T2 Belcher + activate.
10) T1 Belcher + activate
11) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrils
12) T1 Looting -> Wish -> Empty for 14 goblins
13) T1 miracle Reforge -> Looting -> Belcher + activate
14) T1 Belcher + activate
15) Mull to 6. T2 Looting & brick. T3 Meditate -> Wish -> Echo -> Belcher & activate
16) T1 Recross -> Tendrils
17) Mull to 6. T2 Recross -> Tendrils
18) Mull to 6. T1 Wish -> Echo -> Belcher + activate
19) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrils
20) T1 Recross. T2 Tendrils


Winning Turn OTP:
Turn 1: 7 (35%)
Turn 2: 7 (35%)
Turn 3: 4 (20%)
Slow Empty or fizzle: 2 (10%)

Basically the same as the other configuration.

Win Conditions Used
Belcher: 8
Tendrils: 9
Empty: 3

I got Tendrils each time with Recross, but I could have Belched or Grapeshotted instead.

Passing the Turn
Recross & win this turn: 3/9
Pass 1 turn: 6/9
Pass 2 turns: 0/9

This is the biggest difference. The other build risks more lines where it has to pass the turn twice after Recross, due to the lack of Probes. Faithless fixes that. There are more lines that just pass once or not at all.

Faithless tech exploits the fact that you often win the clash off Recross the Paths if you stack a Street Wraith on top. That gives you Recross back as a free card to pitch to Faithless. With any other extra card in hand, it becomes "R: Draw 2", letting you dig into both LED + Street Wraith to set up Meditate.


New lines enabled by Faithless Looting
These assume you win the clash by putting a Street Wraith on top. If you can't rely on that in the matchup, you just need 1 more card in hand to discard or to pass the turn one more time.

R + Looting + Street Wraith -> win this turn
Setup1 = LED + filler card
Win the clash. Looting into LED, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Street Wraith, cycling with UUU floating, to set up Meditate.

R + Street Wraith + 1 card -> win this turn
Setup1 = Looting + LED + Wraith
Win clash. Cycle into Looting. Looting, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Wraith into Meditate.

R + Looting + 1 card -> win this turn
Setup1 = LED
Win clash. Looting into Wraith + LED, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Wraith into Meditate.

R + 1 card -> pass the turn
Setup1 = Looting + LED + Wraith
Win clash. Draw Wraith next turn. Cycle into Looting. Loot into LED + Wraith, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Wraith into Meditate.

Tapped red source + Looting -> pass the turn
Setup1 = LED + filler
Win clash. Draw Wraith next turn. Cast Looting into LED + filler, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Wraith into Meditate.

G + Manamorphose + 1 card -> pass the turn
Setup1 = SSG + Looting + LED + Wraith
Win clash. Draw Wraith next turn. Cycle into SSG. Cast Manamorphose floating RG, draw Looting. Loot into LED + Wraith, discarding Recross + filler. LED + Wraith into Meditate.

These requirements are so light that I may not even need to bother with Reforge the Soul. I never used it for any piles.

[mistercakes]

it's a fun deck, but is unfortunately still weak to surgical extraction. normally if it would dodge the graveyard hate, there's an objective reason to play this over oops. with surgical extraction the only reason i can see is because it's "more fun".

still nice to see people are trying it, but it does seem worse than oops, which can run maindeck veil + pact of negation + sometimes chancellor.

[dte]

it's a fun deck, but is unfortunately still weak to surgical extraction. normally if it would dodge the graveyard hate, there's an objective reason to play this over oops. with surgical extraction the only reason i can see is because it's "more fun".

Why is it weak to SE? It does not use the graveyard much, and if you reference to forcing a library shuffle after Recross the paths, recross is often still in hand (with 5 or 7, clash is often won), and with 33 manasources including 11 stable ones, replaying a 3-mana spell is not the end of the world. A surgical in response to meditate leaves you with your lands/moxes in play, 3 manas in pool, some storm and 4 random draws. There's worse for a storm deck playing 11 business cards.

I am not saying surgical is a blank, far from it, but it isn't great either. FoW + FoN would be more my concern. When I see the number of potential gobs on T1, I wonder if it would not be worth it to play more EtW main. Considering 12 gobs T3 the worst fizzle is maybe misrepresenting a hand that has a game against counterspells. There are not that many decks that handle 10 gobs T1, but there are quite a few that play 4-7 foW/FoN. Just seeing Empties can bait them into forcing manasources.

[FTW]

I'll admit the main reason I revived this was after thinking about t000's spell land comment (they're much better here than in regular Belcher), not because I thought Belcher is the next broken thing to dominate a fair blue Oko meta. I long ago wrote off Recross as dead with Probe's banning, but it's gotten significantly better by adding the spell lands and Faithless Looting, so it's been fun to revive and tinker around with green Doomsday.

Still, I wouldn't write this off as just a worse version of Oops. Oops is much more vulnerable to graveyard hate.

First, Surgical isn't the only gravehate played. Leyline, Faerie, Crypt, Cage, Relic, Bog, etc do nothing here. Oops has to deal with them before it can do anything.

vs Surgical, you can often just Recross again (winning the clash is common). Pay 2G again is easier now than it was before with 8x Land in the deck. Also, since you mainly see Surgical postboard in fair blue decks, there's Xantid Swarm to shut it off. Swarm's easier to cast now with lands. If you're really worried about it you can even stick Xantid Swarm on top (below Wraith) and slow down a turn. They have no idea what order you stacked the cards in.

Also this deck doesn't have to use Recross, while Oops has only one line to play. Oops has to remove the hate. Over 50% of my 40 goldfishes didn't even use Recross the Paths, and in others I had a choice between more than one line. Recross is just one of multiple lines the deck can take. The other lines ignore Surgical and are happy if opponent spends cards mulliganning/cantripping into it. Just like a Needle @ Belcher, you can often go off around hate instead of removing it. Opponent has to commit to what hate to keep without knowing your hand. That alone has won me many games with Belcher, even when the opponent objectively has all the answers in their 75.

FoW/FoN is a much bigger problem. But that has always been the Belcher philosophy. It's a glass cannon deck that wants to obliterate hands without Force.

@dte: Good point about Empty. It's quite good against decks like RUG, full of counters but with no Terminus. When I worked on Song of Creation/Echo Storm, my tech against blue was to board in 2-3 Empty to overwhelm their counters. I might do that here too. Overwhelming disruption with too much business and confusing their hate is a good proactive direction for red storm.

Another advantage this deck has is 4x maindeck removal for hatebears built into the manabase. The red land kills hatebears. And taps for R. And imprints on Mox. I can't get over how busted this card is for a land slot. It's better than the green and black lands.