Where Has All the Blue Gone?

[Finn]

I'm curious to see what other players have to say about the lack of blue in the the top crust of Decks to Beat. Ya got Canadian, but then Jund, and D&T. Then Elves, finally storm before you get Miracles, Show and Tell, etc. So basically Force of Will is particularly ineffective at the moment.

If I look at this from a politician's point of view, I can say things like "not only is blue not dominating the top four decks, it is the Least represented color."

Now I know that D&T is hard on the decks that have been pushed down the rungs a bit there, and that Elves and Jund are the only foils for it in the top 20 decks or so. But I wonder if there must be more. Is Gaea's Cradle really that big a deal now? Is it enough to put Elves in a stronger position versus Shardless, Miracles, and so on? Jund is where it has been, but why have more storm decks not capitalized upon this meta game yet?

[Megadeus]

Strategies that naturally prey on blue have become popular. Also with new card design there are many cards like DRS that are good vs blue

[Humphrey]

Time to dust off Belcher :cool:

[Griselpuff]

I actually don't believe the DTB to be the most accurate representation of the most successful decks in the metagame. I do my own analysis based on large tournaments and top finishes from those tournaments because I believe it's more meaningful to top 8 or top 16 a 9 round tournament than a random local.

From that analysis, out of the 119 top decks, 77 (65% of 119) play Brainstorm and 67 (56% of 119) play Force of Will . Perhaps blue isn't what it used to be, but I think it's a good thing that there's more variety in the metagame and Brainstorm/FoW decks are very beatable. FoW is also terrible in the fair deck match ups and people have been cutting them more and more. Storm has capitalized on the metagame, ANT variants have 8 decks and TES decks have 5, which are both a lot more than they used to.

Elves is simply well positioned in the metagame against a lot of decks, and yes Gaea's Cradle obviously helps a lot. Currently, from Carsten's separation of the triumvirate (Delver Tempo, Cantrip Combo, Deathrite Midrange), Delver decks have 23 decks, Deathrite Midrange decks have 22 decks and Cantrip Combo decks have 34 decks. I'd say combo decks are better positioned than they have been in a long time. If only I knew how to play Storm...

Here are the top decks in case anybody is wondering:

RUG Delver 11
Shardless BUG 8
U OmniTell 8
UWR Delver 7
Sneak and Show 7
ANT 8
TES 5
Reanimator 5
Elves 4
Jund 5
Merfolk 4
Death and Taxes 4
DeathBlade 5
Goblins 3
UBR Delver 3
Imperial Painter 3
4 Color Loam 3
Miracles 4

[Megadeus]

Get there aggro loam

[Zombie]

Get there aggro loam

Hoogland doesn't feel very aggressive to me. More like prison loam spiced with Hugedude(tm).

[twndomn]

So basically Force of Will is particularly ineffective at the moment.

If I look at this from a politician's point of view, I can say things like "not only is blue not dominating the top four decks, it is the Least represented color."



What are you talking about? All the _ _ U Delver decks run FoW, at least in the SB. Then Most Show and Tell variants (Omni or Sneak) have FoW.

That should push the number to somewhere close to 50%. If we add Doomsday players and Miracle players, we can push that number to at least 50%, if not more. Hence, FoW is still the dominant choice.

When it comes to Blue the color itself, why does it have to be represented as a mono color? It's a ridiculous premise. Do we ever consider Black the same way as you are considering Blue? Unless we see Pox running everywhere, I don't see Black as being represented anywhere.

Your fallacy is pretty much your lack of definition on how does one color have to represent itself, why can't a color just exist in popular 2-color or 3-color decks? Based on my definition, Blue and Black are everywhere. Merfolk, Delver, BUG, Combos, and Miracle all use Blue. Same decks (Delver, BUG, Combos, and Miracle) also use Black. These numbers, when you add them up, are way more than the number of players running goblin, DnT, or elves.

Bottom line, I don't know where you derive your thesis from, no evidence.

[Megadeus]

Hoogland doesn't feel very aggressive to me. More like prison loam spiced with Hugedude(tm).

Fair. It plays creatures though. Therefore aggro ;)

[Zombie]

Fair. It plays creatures though. Therefore aggro ;)

Nah, you have to be fast, too. Like, 160 Goblins + 47 points of burn on T1 fast.

[Finn]

What are you talking about? All the _ _ U Delver decks run FoW, at least in the SB. Then Most Show and Tell variants (Omni or Sneak) have FoW.

That should push the number to somewhere close to 50%. If we add Doomsday players and Miracle players, we can push that number to at least 50%, if not more. Hence, FoW is still the dominant choice.

When it comes to Blue the color itself, why does it have to be represented as a mono color? It's a ridiculous premise. Do we ever consider Black the same way as you are considering Blue? Unless we see Pox running everywhere, I don't see Black as being represented anywhere.

Your fallacy is pretty much your lack of definition on how does one color have to represent itself, why can't a color just exist in popular 2-color or 3-color decks? Based on my definition, Blue and Black are everywhere. Merfolk, Delver, BUG, Combos, and Miracle all use Blue. Same decks (Delver, BUG, Combos, and Miracle) also use Black. These numbers, when you add them up, are way more than the number of players running goblin, DnT, or elves.

Bottom line, I don't know where you derive your thesis from, no evidence.I did not make a mistake. I'm sure there are more people running other decks, but they aren't winning. The only source I mentioned for this information was the Decks to Beat section of this forum. From that, the top four decks are:

1. Canadian Threshold
2. Jund
3. Death and Taxes
4. Elves

3 decks with green
2 decks with black
2 decks with white
2 decks with red
1 deck with blue

Yes, I hand picked the data, but I said it was done like a politician. This was on purpose to illustrate the point more clearly. To my recollection, there has never been a metagame so hostile to blue that it is so poorly represented amongst the top decks. So then, I ask again, why is the metagame so hostile to blue right now? The trend started a few months back, but is very clear from August. Is it actually possible that we have turned a corner? Or is this just an elongated blip?

[Barook]

RUG Delver is still the top dog of the format. And just cutting at the Top 4 seems too convenient since there are way more DTBs in it:

Canadian Thresh
Jund
Death and Taxes
Elves
Ad Nauseam Tendrils
Miracle Control
OmniTell
Sneak Attack
Maverick
Shardless BUG
Team America
Goblins
Out of the 12 DTBs, seven contain blue - and place #13-15 are decks containing blue as well. Blue's/Brainstorm's dominance is all but gone.

[FieryBalrog]

Yes, I hand picked the data, but I said it was done like a politician. This was on purpose to illustrate the point more clearly. To my recollection, there has never been a metagame so hostile to blue that it is so poorly represented amongst the top decks. So then, I ask again, why is the metagame so hostile to blue right now? The trend started a few months back, but is very clear from August. Is it actually possible that we have turned a corner? Or is this just an elongated blip?

Elongated blip. Rather, the Legacy metagame over a period of years with a frequency of 8 to 10 months swings between "fair decks predominate, and blue is merely over-represented" and "unfair decks and fish decks predominate, and blue is ludicrously over-represented."

[Dice_Box]

Blue is all over the shop, Omnishow pulled first not long ago, almost every deck in the DTB list that has a multicoloured base is playing blue, force is still being thrown around. Am I missing anything because it looks like blue is alive and kicking.

I think the question here is "How come non blue decks are not being trampled on like normal?" The answer is simple. With the switch to more greedy mana bases with creature heavy focuses, Goblins mana denial and DnT's prison control work into the meta well. Elves speed and shear mass of Blockers mean that they can defend themselves before they combo off.

In all, seams like blue is as alive as ever, only it has to share the spotlight. Got to suck yo have to share when your so use to just hogging up all the limelight.

Sent from my mobile, forgive spelling and grammatical errors.

[nedleeds]

If people spent all the time they spend splitting hairs over perceived shifts in a fictional universal metagame actually building and playing new decks maybe there would be an interesting new deck.

[crow_mw]

I did not make a mistake. I'm sure there are more people running other decks, but they aren't winning. The only source I mentioned for this information was the Decks to Beat section of this forum. From that, the top four decks are:

1. Canadian Threshold
2. Jund
3. Death and Taxes
4. Elves


In addition to arguments mentioned above this is really result of dominant strategies having subcategories. You could very well read the list this way:

1. Delver Tempo (Canadian, Patriot) 201 pt.
2. Show and Tell (Omni + Sneak) 158 pt.
3. Miracle Control (including RiP Miracles) 129 pt.
4. Jund 118 pt.

[thecrav]

If people spent all the time they spend splitting hairs over perceived shifts in a fictional universal metagame actually building and playing new decks maybe there would be an interesting new deck.

Can you please post your list, I'm too busy redditing to come up with something

[DragoFireheart]

Blue hasn't gone anywhere. As long as the threat of Turn 0/1 kills exist from decks like Belcher, Force of Will will forever exist.

[Finn]

In addition to arguments mentioned above this is really result of dominant strategies having subcategories. You could very well read the list this way:

1. Delver Tempo (Canadian, Patriot) 201 pt.
2. Show and Tell (Omni + Sneak) 158 pt.
3. Miracle Control (including RiP Miracles) 129 pt.
4. Jund 118 pt.

This is a really good point. I mean, I thought I went out of my way to be clear that I was portholing the numbers to suit my position. This is the opposite, where you look trough the porthole the other way. With this view, it seems clear that Blue is not lacking so much as it is splintered. So many flavors...