[Article] December 2013 Legacy Metagame Analysis

[Griselpuff]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/december-2013-legacy-metagame-analysis/

I had a lot of fun writing this piece, and it took a fair bit of work as well. Enjoy!!! :laugh::cool:

Also, I'm only replying to comments posted at the end of the article on CFB's site. Thanks!

[lordofthepit]

Thanks for the article!

[Wilkin]

Very good article. I will say though that it looked like a lot of Death and Taxes builds were already adjusting to the splash hate of True Name. I saw lists with less creatures like Mangara of Corondor and the return of Serra Avenger.

Still, they do get hit pretty hard with -x/-x effects.

[Sasan]

Great, great article!

[BlackPurple]

Great article. Thanks!

[lyracian]

Interesting read. Not quite sure why you class Burn as a combo deck?

Apart from Jund, which you said was on the decline, all the Aggro decks are Blue based with Delver and/or TNN.
In fact 18 of the 25 decks listed are blue.

[L0cke]

Interesting read. Not quite sure why you class Burn as a combo deck?

Apart from Jund, which you said was on the decline, all the Aggro decks are Blue based with Delver and/or TNN.
In fact 18 of the 25 decks listed are blue.

Burn is effectively combo because it doesn't interact with its opponent if possible. Its just a simple linear combo deck that consists of all redundant combo pieces that to 3 damage for 1 mana.

[twndomn]

Burn is effectively combo because it doesn't interact with its opponent if possible. Its just a simple linear combo deck that consists of all redundant combo pieces that to 3 damage for 1 mana.

That's a ridiculous statement and most mtg players would not classify like that.

The definition of Aggro or Combo should not hinge on the so called interaction. To be called a combo, the deck has to have somewhat distinct or unique creation of advantage over 2~3 combo pieces. If you cannot identify these combo pieces, then it's just the overall synergy of the deck. Hence, you confused yourself with deck synergy and combo pieces. Also, by your definition, Burn, Dredge, Affinity are all combo decks, which is wrong.

With that said, Burn definitely has interaction against other aggro decks, taking out problematic creatures, or even taking out the combo creature piece.

[PirateKing]

Mountain + Lightning Bolt, oldest combo in Magic, still going strong.

[Patrunkenphat7]

Great article! I don't understand why Show and Tell decks are somehow assumed to be bad matchups for ANT though... Show and Tell into Griselbrand is good, but every other combination of their combo cards is too slow. The discard also rips their hand to shreds. Post-SB Xantid Swarm is insane and trumps the high-variance Leylines.

[Koby]

Great article! I don't understand why Show and Tell decks are somehow assumed to be bad matchups for ANT though... Show and Tell into Griselbrand is good, but every other combination of their combo cards is too slow. The discard also rips their hand to shreds. Post-SB Xantid Swarm is insane and trumps the high-variance Leylines.

Show & Tell -> Griselbrand is effectively game over for any storm deck. FoW on demand is really strong. Lifelink to follow up is even stronger. Xantid Swarm is roughly the only way to break out of that.

[Patrunkenphat7]

Show & Tell -> Griselbrand is effectively game over for any storm deck. FoW on demand is really strong. Lifelink to follow up is even stronger. Xantid Swarm is roughly the only way to break out of that.

Yes, I pointed out that Show and Tell into Griselbrand is good (even though I've beaten resolved Griselbrand multiple times in sanctioned games), but their combo consists of S+T Griselbrand, S+T Emrakul, Sneak Attack Griselbrand, or Sneak Attack Emrakul. 3 of those 4 combinations are too slow against the Storm deck. Also the discard is much better than the Forces in this matchup, as the person with the discard gets to decide if they are going to be the combo or control player based on the situation. I am always happy to play against Sneak and Show with my Storm deck.

[ironclad8690]

I can get behind Bob's classifications here:

Aggro decks primarily focus on attacking with creatures and removing opposing creatures (Zoo for example), whereas Burn kind of has Grim lavamancer and Goblin Guide in it's back pocket just in case. You could play the more "Sligh" version with more creatures and less flame rift effects, but I think the more spell based "combo" version is better positioned.

I like how he classifies death and taxes and maverick as control decks as well, even though they aren't what most people would think of when they think of "classic" control.

Kind of a sad day when blue has the best aggressive 1 drop and the most resilient 3 drop creature in addition to the most powerful spells.

[Koby]

Yes, I pointed out that Show and Tell into Griselbrand is good (even though I've beaten resolved Griselbrand multiple times in sanctioned games), but their combo consists of S+T Griselbrand, S+T Emrakul, Sneak Attack Griselbrand, or Sneak Attack Emrakul. 3 of those 4 combinations are too slow against the Storm deck. Also the discard is much better than the Forces in this matchup, as the person with the discard gets to decide if they are going to be the combo or control player based on the situation. I am always happy to play against Sneak and Show with my Storm deck.

My experience has been the opposite, so I'd probably put it at a 50/50 matchup that's dependent on the draws from each deck. Just as Sneak Show needs to find Show & Tell, Storm needs to find discard.

RE: article
It dawned on me reading this article that the majority of Legacy's "Aggro" decks are really Brainstorm-Delver decks. This is sad. :frown:

[twndomn]

I like how he classifies death and taxes and maverick as control decks as well, even though they aren't what most people would think of when they think of "classic" control.

Kind of a sad day when blue has the best aggressive 1 drop and the most resilient 3 drop creature in addition to the most powerful spells.

Let's see what's the so called best aggressive 1 drop? Aether Vial, DRS, and Goblin guide. Which one of them is Blue?

To call Death and Taxes control is just being lazy. Death and Taxes is implementing Prison strategy. To be more precise, it's actually Aggro-control without Counters.

Maverick is not control, it's a different from of Midrange, just as Shardless BUG is a form of Midrange. However, I personally dislike this so called concept of Midrange, I would rather call both decks Aggro-control as well.

[Finn]

How is Delver of Secrets not on a list of best aggressive 1-drops in Legacy? Also. I am petty sure that Aether Vial is a control card now.

[pointicus]

My only beef with the way you classified decks as aggro,control and combo is that it is done in such a way that the top 8 finishes are broken down in to be relatively even across the board. This is misleading as you admit there are decks in some categories that do not really fit the concept of either aggro, combo or control, making the spread of top 8 finishes not as neat as your list would have a reader believe. I think that archetype part detracts from what you are trying to accomplish, and you should have just gone straight into discussing different decks/metagame choices, and then reference the apparent decline in combo as something like since TNN release, ANT, Showntell, Omnitell etc have only accounted for X% of all top 8 finishes.

[bjholmes3]

I think that the argument about Blue's dominance of the color pie is about as ridiculous as that stupid clay things that shows up when I Google'd my username. Especially when used to assert that TNN "should have been white".

Blue is good first and foremost because it 1.) allows you to find crap and 2.) allows you to keep your crap safe and 3.) keeps you safe from your opponent's crappiest crap. Take away cantrips and the game turns into Standard topdeck mising contests. Take away counters and suddenly SI is the best deck in town (which I think most of you doomsday preachers would agree would be unhealthy for the format :rolleyes:). When I read about complaints regarding Brainstorm being everywhere, so what? Brainstorm makes Legacy better. Decks that run it resist discard and find their crap. It's as format-defining, I would argue, as the black tutors are in Vintage. It makes the format work. As for complaints about blue having the "best aggro cards", when was the last time you lost to a mono-U aggro deck?

[ESG]

As for complaints about blue having the "best aggro cards", when was the last time you lost to a mono-U aggro deck?

This misses the point entirely.



Kind of a sad day when blue has the best aggressive 1 drop and the most resilient 3 drop creature in addition to the most powerful spells.




RE: article
It dawned on me reading this article that the majority of Legacy's "Aggro" decks are really Brainstorm-Delver decks. This is sad. :frown:

Welcome to the sad club.

[TsumiBand]

RE: article
It dawned on me reading this article that the majority of Legacy's "Aggro" decks are really Brainstorm-Delver decks. This is sad. :frown:

When people stopped trying to splash Blue in aggro decks to play Delver and just tore out a Zoo color instead, that was an early indicator that there was imbalance in the Force.


Kind of a sad day when blue has the best aggressive 1 drop and the most resilient 3 drop creature in addition to the most powerful spells.


Welcome to the sad club.

It would have been enough to, like, maybe just have printed Delver, right? He's "just a beater" after all, and while that's still a bit outside the flavor scope of Blue, at the end of the day it isn't like it doesn't die to Shock. We'd have this putative "UR Counterburn" deck which used to be a vaunted imaginary archetype instead of the pissy Rug Delver + GoodStuff thing we have now.

Hell, if they'd printed Snapcaster in Red like many players wish they had, decks like RUG Delver would remain largely unchanged, *and* we might have one or two more viable "non-Blue decks with Red" floating around.

In fact, as I think about it, the argument for a Red Snapcaster is as good as any an argument for a "non-Blue TNN". Forget about WotC justifications for the color of certain cards for a minute -- think about what experiments might be possible if every other card in Magic were exactly the same, only Snapcaster Mage cost 1R and True-Name Nemesis cost 1WW. The fact that such attractive cards exist in those colors drives people to build in those colors. Whether Blue ends up in those decks is incidental; the way players shell a card necessarily changes significantly between colors, especially when you're dealing with double-colored casting costs.

[lyracian]

To call Death and Taxes control is just being lazy. Death and Taxes is implementing Prison strategy. To be more precise, it's actually Aggro-control without Counters.Prison strategy is a control strategy. There was a big debate on MTGS when they reoganised to have A/C/C split and D&T was put in Aggro; eventually it was moved to Control. Sure Maverick is a more aggressive step-child of D&T but if you are going to push it to one side of the line or the other they might as well go together.


Mountain + Lightning Bolt, oldest combo in Magic, still going strong.Channel Fireball is the oldest combo; just playing the casting cost of a spell is not a combo.


I would argue, as the black tutors are in Vintage. It makes the format work. As for complaints about blue having the "best aggro cards", when was the last time you lost to a mono-U aggro deck?Last week actually. I was playing Truename Patriot. He wasted my Tundra after I cast Stoneforge and then countered what I cast while beating me down with Delver and Ninja's. I crushed him in the rematch this week with some basics in my deck.

[Finn]

Blue needs a threshold of blue spells to power FoW too. So these decks would be forced to decide which of these guys to keep around, because at some point you don't have enough blue cards to keep both. Printing yet another top notch creature for blue bumps the power of the color, true. But it also disguises that power by allowing for more ways to use the card. With powerful blue cards relegated to noncreature counters and search, all the blue decks looked the same. Brainstorm is the poster child for this phenomenon. If you are in blue, you are playing Brainstorm because the alternative card for that slot is never as good. (Heh, Merfolk). That is why so many blue-based decks have always been possible...but not real aggro...until now. Comparisons of this card (or Delver) to Tarmo are flawed for this reason. Blue decks were still forced into the role of aggro-control with Tarmo. They no longer are. When the blue STP or Bolt replacement sees print, I quit.

[twndomn]

Prison strategy is a control strategy. There was a big debate on MTGS when they reoganised to have A/C/C split and D&T was put in Aggro; eventually it was moved to Control. Sure Maverick is a more aggressive step-child of D&T but if you are going to push it to one side of the line or the other they might as well go together.


I don't see the purpose of referring to what MTGS classify D&T as.

Prison strategy is just Prison strategy. To be called a Control strategy, the deck doing the control role has to be able to selectively filter threats by trading cards. Counters, in this case, create that filtering effect. That selectivity is very distinct, not to be confused with non-discriminant prison, such as Tangle wire + Smokestack.

Hence, I would still call D&T aggro-control, since it is never able to establish that filter effect, doing only half the job of control by creating that prison effect.

[TsumiBand]

Blue needs a threshold of blue spells to power FoW too. So these decks would be forced to decide which of these guys to keep around, because at some point you don't have enough blue cards to keep both. Printing yet another top notch creature for blue bumps the power of the color, true. But it also disguises that power by allowing for more ways to use the card. With powerful blue cards relegated to noncreature counters and search, all the blue decks looked the same. Brainstorm is the poster child for this phenomenon. If you are in blue, you are playing Brainstorm because the alternative card for that slot is never as good. (Heh, Merfolk). That is why so many blue-based decks have always been possible...but not real aggro...until now. Comparisons of this card (or Delver) to Tarmo are flawed for this reason. Blue decks were still forced into the role of aggro-control with Tarmo. They no longer are. When the blue STP or Bolt replacement sees print, I quit.

And why is a Blue aggro deck a healthy thing?

I want my Green control deck then, and mono-colorless counter-control deck. Mono-White combo would be sweet too. Everyone get everything, forever

[Higgs]

I remember playing a green control deck with Plow Unders and Tangle Wires though.. However this is not to say that blue aggro is a healthy thing.

[apple713]

And why is a Blue aggro deck a healthy thing?

I want my Green control deck then, and mono-colorless counter-control deck. Mono-White combo would be sweet too. Everyone get everything, forever

eventually it'll happen...

however there are a few options in place already...

MUD Stax is pretty close to a counter control deck.

white combo would be second sunrise - enduring ideal might be able to be revisited in legacy.

I made a green control deck... it doesn't work as well as id like but its ok. Plow under, follow earth, ice storm, beast within, drop of honey...

[Finn]

And why is a Blue aggro deck a healthy thing?I don't think it is.

[Fatal]

Blue aggro deck is health but, Blue aggro deck which is better then other aggro decks is very very bad since the diversity of aggro decks will decrease to one deck.

[lyracian]

I don't see the purpose of referring to what MTGS classify D&T as.

Prison strategy is just Prison strategy. To be called a Control strategy, the deck doing the control role has to be able to selectively filter threats by trading cards. Counters, in this case, create that filtering effect. That selectivity is very distinct, not to be confused with non-discriminant prison, such as Tangle wire + Smokestack.

Hence, I would still call D&T aggro-control, since it is never able to establish that filter effect, doing only half the job of control by creating that prison effect.
With only three classification available in the analysis (Aggro, Control, Combo) you are the one complaining that D&T should not be classified as Control. I referenced MTGS to show that others have been through this argument and what the end result was. You have your opinion and I have mine. I doubt a Prison deck can ever be Aggro, it might manage to be a Combo deck but as far as I am concerned, when you only have the three basic classificaiton available Prison decks are going to be Control.

[Julian23]

Most white stompy decks are Aggro/Prison, as in Angel Stompy. If you want to call Blood Moon a prison card, so is Dragon Stompy.

[Griselpuff]

Only on the Source do you see the majority of the comments focused on semantics instead of discussing the actual meat of the article...

[L0cke]

Only on the Source do you see the majority of the comments focused on semantics instead of discussing the actual meat of the article...

That's probably the highest compliment most of the people on here can give to an article. If they can only complain about the minutiae it means the rest of the article must have been good.

[Griselpuff]

Haha, thanks :cool: