Opinions About a Trade of Staples

[Parallex]

Pile A:
4 FOIL WKK JTMS
4 FOIL ON Polluted Delta
4 FOIL JAPANESE Mox Opal
1 FOIL JAPANESE Umezawa's Jitte

(All foils are NM)

Pile B:
4 FBB Underground Sea
4 FBB Volcanic Island
4 FBB Tundra
1 FBB Tropical Island

(All duals are NM/EX+ with no whitening)

I'm keeping the piles anonymous for now so as not to bias opinions.
Shoot away!

[Tormod]

Foils and FBB are not my strong suit, but if it were up to me to pick a pile, I'm going with the dual lands all the way.

[mini1337s]

Pile B by a goddamn landslide. Even more so if they are German.

[Megadeus]

Yeah Im not well versed in FBB prices, but damn that is a pile of value right there. Honestly seems almost too good to be true

[Parallex]

Yeah Im not well versed in FBB prices, but damn that is a pile of value right there. Honestly seems almost too good to be true

And therein lies my main concern :confused:

[Parallex]

Pile B by a goddamn landslide. Even more so if they are German.

The Volcanics and 2 Seas are German. Assuming similar conditions, what is the approx. price differential between a German FBB and French/Itl FBB dual (on average)?

[Arsenal]

If you're concerned about the authenticity of one or both piles, I'm sure there is a way to properly authenticate the cards. Both players should be understanding of the desire to authenticate prior to trade.

[Parallex]

If you're concerned about the authenticity of one or both piles, I'm sure there is a way to properly authenticate the cards. Both players should be understanding of the desire to authenticate prior to trade.

We're doing the trade via a mutual third party, but I'm still awaiting scans of the cards (though the middleman has vouched for the other party's trustworthiness).

[Occam]

Pile B is worth more, but it isn't by that much, if at all. Depends how strictly NM- the duals are.

Jaces > Seas
Deltas << Volcs
Opals << Tundras
Jitte >> Trop

Jitte is stupidly expensive these days. Think close to Emrakul range.

[Parallex]

Pile B is worth more, but it isn't by that much, if at all. Depends how strictly NM- the duals are.

Jaces > Seas
Deltas << Volcs
Opals << Tundras
Jitte >> Trop

Jitte is stupidly expensive these days. Think close to Emrakul range.

Yeah, I know Jitte's gone through the roof, but it's still a couple hundred short of Emrakul, isn't it?

I'm most uncertain about the Seas and Jaces; Seas appear more scarce, and Jace seems like it's been sliding down ever since FTV...but then there's the potential of a modern unbanning. Where do you see the mid-term (3-4 yrs) value of both sets?

[Arsenal]

Seas > Jace long term. And for playability, Seas > Jace.

btw: I don't think Jace will get unbanned in Modern unless we see a metric ton of other Modern unbannings... which is about as likely as Wizards abolishing the Reserve List.

[danyul]

Duals can only go up. Fetches *might* see reprints and Jace has already taken a hit with FTV and TNN spitting all over his value.

What's more pimp to you? Fetching with a foil fetch into a white bordered dual? Or fetching with a regular fetch into a FBB dual? That might be the more important distinction here. I personally prefer pimping things that stick around on table, so their pimpness can be appreciated. That puts fetches (and nonpermanents) near the bottom of my pimping list.

I'm in the dual camp.

[apple713]

Pile B is worth more, but it isn't by that much, if at all. Depends how strictly NM- the duals are.

Jaces > Seas
Deltas << Volcs
Opals << Tundras
Jitte >> Trop

Jitte is stupidly expensive these days. Think close to Emrakul range.



I'd say that occam nailed it. The only thing I could add is that its a hard trade to make (at least for me) because they are in two different worlds of MTG. You are looking at reserve list vs non reserve list. Jaces just got 1000's of reprints and WWK jaces still held up. I expect opals to get a reprint because it's healthy for modern. Jitte is less likely to get a reprint in a set but possibly another judge foil with old border.

Duals are classics and on the reserve list. I'm biased however against FBB anything. I just don't like foreign cards. I however feel as though value wise the duals will be worth more long run.

Ultimately on high dollar things like this its hard to come to a value and 50$ in one direction is acceptable in completing a big trade like this, at least from what I've found. Just recently i made a large trade, wastelands duals and FOW's for 3 NM beta Plateaus. I got a good deal value wise but they are just plateaus. I'm happy cause i need a beta set of duals, and only had to give up 1 of my 3 extra sets of wastelands... Big trades are more about preference especially when the values are this close.



Duals can only go up. Fetches *might* see reprints and Jace has already taken a hit with FTV and TNN spitting all over his value.

What's more pimp to you? Fetching with a foil fetch into a white bordered dual? Or fetching with a regular fetch into a FBB dual? That might be the more important distinction here.

I'm in the dual camp.

Fetches will get reprinted, its a matter of when. It is extremely unlikely that ONS fetch lands will get reprinted with the same border so the old ones will hold value very well. I'm waiting for the new fetches to get reprinted as judge foils with the old border to upgrade.

[Parallex]

@ apple and danyul:

I'm inclined to think that the duals would ultimately hold value better in the long term as well, but lately, it seems foreign foils for Legacy staples have a rather high ceiling.

It's a tough trade, as you rightfully said, apple. I guess for me, the trade is contingent on the condition of the duals. I'm the one with the foils, and I'm still awaiting scans of the duals. The owner says they're all between NM and Ex+, with no whitening.

And yes, the FBBs are quite pimp to me, since I sold all my revised duals recently!
Perhaps they'll serve as a stepping stone to Beta ones :wink:

[Myelectronicdays]

Duals can only go up. Fetches *might* see reprints and Jace has already taken a hit with FTV and TNN spitting all over his value.

What's more pimp to you? Fetching with a foil fetch into a white bordered dual? Or fetching with a regular fetch into a FBB dual? That might be the more important distinction here. I personally prefer pimping things that stick around on table, so their pimpness can be appreciated. That puts fetches (and nonpermanents) near the bottom of my pimping list.

I'm in the dual camp.

Def a good way to think about pimping first. Def duals.

[lordofthepit]

Go with the lesser evil: foreign cards over foil + foreign. Especially if they're duals.

[Madmaniac21]

Pile B AINEC for most true legacy/vintage/older format vets.

[davelin]

All things equal Reserved List over non-Reserved List.

[Quasim0ff]

Duals can only go up. Fetches *might* see reprints and Jace has already taken a hit with FTV and TNN spitting all over his value.

What's more pimp to you? Fetching with a foil fetch into a white bordered dual? Or fetching with a regular fetch into a FBB dual? That might be the more important distinction here. I personally prefer pimping things that stick around on table, so their pimpness can be appreciated. That puts fetches (and nonpermanents) near the bottom of my pimping list.

I'm in the dual camp.
So you don't like foil brainstorms/foil w.e either? :x

OT: Duals.

[danyul]

No, I like those. We all like those things. I'm just saying, when pimping on a budget you need to be effective with your dollars. So in a SFM deck I would try to pimp my Stoneforges and Equipment first before I try to pimp a Brainstorm. I will be killing my opponent with my foil SFM and Batterskull. I want them to see that pimpness as they slowly realize their doom. The Brainstorm will be flashed and sit in the yard the rest of the match. So its sexiness is appreciated much less. The same logic applies for duals, only moreso because you can use them in many decks.

[apple713]

@ apple and danyul:

I'm inclined to think that the duals would ultimately hold value better in the long term as well, but lately, it seems foreign foils for Legacy staples have a rather high ceiling.

It's a tough trade, as you rightfully said, apple. I guess for me, the trade is contingent on the condition of the duals. I'm the one with the foils, and I'm still awaiting scans of the duals. The owner says they're all between NM and Ex+, with no whitening.

And yes, the FBBs are quite pimp to me, since I sold all my revised duals recently!
Perhaps they'll serve as a stepping stone to Beta ones :wink:

Be careful. Stepping stones don't typically work in magic. The reason being is that the people with beta duals are not likely to want FBB ones. I had trouble learning this. Trading high dollar cards is a lot harder than i imagined. You'll most likely have to sell the FBB ones and buy beta ones if thats your end game. Duals are at the point where if I don't get my beta set by next fall I probably won't ever finish it because they are becoming to expensive to justify.

[Quasim0ff]

No. We all like those things. I'm just saying, when pimping on a budget you need to be effective with your dollars. So in a SFM deck I would try to pimp my Stoneforges and Equipment first before I try to pimp a Brainstorm. I will be killing my opponent with my foil SFM and Batterskull. I want them to see that pimpness as they slowly realize their doom. The Brainstorm will be flashed and sit in the yard the rest of the match. So its sexiness is appreciated much less. The same logic applies for duals, only moreso because you can use them in many decks.
"Pimping on a budget" doesn't exist :D

I try to pimp staples before something else… But each to his own :)

[Parallex]

Be careful. Stepping stones don't typically work in magic. The reason being is that the people with beta duals are not likely to want FBB ones. I had trouble learning this. Trading high dollar cards is a lot harder than i imagined. You'll most likely have to sell the FBB ones and buy beta ones if thats your end game. Duals are at the point where if I don't get my beta set by next fall I probably won't ever finish it because they are becoming to expensive to justify.

I understand where you're coming from.
Realistically, I'm only gonna pimp out one Legacy deck (which requires 3 copies of a particular UR producing dual) at the end of the day.

The reason why this trade came about was because I thought of converting my random pimp into more...usable but no less valuable cards. I guess FBB duels seemed like a good idea.

[apple713]

I understand where you're coming from.
Realistically, I'm only gonna pimp out one Legacy deck (which requires 3 copies of a particular UR producing dual) at the end of the day.

The reason why this trade came about was because I thought of converting my random pimp into more...usable but no less valuable cards. I guess FBB duels seemed like a good idea.

beta volts are super sexy and theoretically should be the most expensive. I imagine they will be soon. I see them surpassing undergrounds because of their limited availability...not being in alpha.

[Lemnear]

Go for the duals ...it's not even a question. Jace is dropping and you can still get cheaper fetches like DCI Foil

[lordofthepit]

No, I like those. We all like those things. I'm just saying, when pimping on a budget you need to be effective with your dollars. So in a SFM deck I would try to pimp my Stoneforges and Equipment first before I try to pimp a Brainstorm. I will be killing my opponent with my foil SFM and Batterskull. I want them to see that pimpness as they slowly realize their doom. The Brainstorm will be flashed and sit in the yard the rest of the match. So its sexiness is appreciated much less. The same logic applies for duals, only moreso because you can use them in many decks.

I'd be careful of "pimping" in such a manner, since someone can claim you're using marked cards if the foiled cards are special for the deck's function (i.e. Stoneforges and equipments).

[Petal Collector]

Duals for me, not even close, mostly due to personal preference (not a huge fan of foils for my personal stock, though I do think the older ones especially look sweet).

[cheerios]

FBB duals

[Parallex]

Thanks for sharing your opinions guys.
Looks like the the duals have edged out the foils.

Currently in the process of trading the cards. No scans of the duals yet, unfortunately. Might update with pics the reflect the condition of the duals, which is the critical factor here.

[jamesh]

jitte is not at emrakul level
jitte is a very overpriced foil and won't last imho (emrakul is overpriced too but it makes more sense)

[Occam]

Considering that jittes are listed for 700 and up now, while emrakul is moving for 800 and up, I would say that yes, jitte is pretty close to emrakul. Speculating on Jitte's future price or calling it overvalued is just hogwash. It has all the hallmarks of a foil that becomes exponentially more expensive with time and certain favourable factors. As long as equipment is playable in legacy, jitte will command a certain price. Its recent spike is artificial, but the same circumstances have seen various other cards keep their value (JTMs pre ftv and TNN, ONS fetches etc) -- price memory will see it maintain its price level, and increase with inflation / the passage of ime.

[jamesh]

there's about 200 difference between the two cards
jitte is far more niche than emrakul
jitte is not played as a playset in the way that emrakul is
there are fewer emrakuls than jittes
emrakul is iconic in a way that jitte isn't

this is my reasoning, it's not hogwash, there are reasons why cards are the value they are
jitte is not in the same category as top shelf competitive play cards like fetches, bob, goyf, DRS etc.

[Teluin]

there's about 200 difference between the two cards
jitte is far more niche than emrakul
jitte is not played as a playset in the way that emrakul is
there are fewer emrakuls than jittes
emrakul is iconic in a way that jitte isn't

this is my reasoning, it's not hogwash, there are reasons why cards are the value they are
jitte is not in the same category as top shelf competitive play cards like fetches, bob, goyf, DRS etc.

I would argue that Jitte is less niche than Emrakul. Jitte is not legal in Modern - if it was, it would cost a hell of a lot more.

[apple713]

I would argue that Jitte is less niche than Emrakul. Jitte is not legal in Modern - if it was, it would cost a hell of a lot more.

Jitte is run in almost any deck that plays creatures, which is roughly 1/3rd of them. Unfortunately it is run as a 1-2 of. At the time it was printed it was printed as a rare. Furthermore it was given away as a GP foil.

Emrakul is run in a niche of combo decks... arguably the most popular one in legacy at the moment. It has few other applications in the world of magic. Sure it can be played in modern but thats not what is creating demand. At the time it was printed it was a Mythic rare. Less of them were probably set into supply than jittes. Emrakul also got a ugly promo foil.

Jitte will probably be surpassed by emrakul value wise....in time griselbrand will surpass all of them. I wish i bought more foil ones at $25 :(

Both are subject to reprint. Meaning at any time they could take a hit. Emrakul is probably the more likely for a reprint. Additionally there was another creature printed that was better than emrakul or at least more preferable such as griselbrand, emrakul might also take a hit. Its very unlikely they'll print an equipment that is better than jitte or more preferable, at least now after they hopefully learned from batter skull.

[Occam]

there's about 200 difference between the two cards - Debatable, recent sales suggest otherwise, and this comes from someone with close to two sets of Emrakuls.
jitte is far more niche than emrakul - No.
jitte is not played as a playset in the way that emrakul is - Emrakul is not played in the same range of decks as Jitte. And this includes Vintage. And a potential ban for SnT.
there are fewer emrakuls than jittes - In circulation, debatable.
emrakul is iconic in a way that jitte isn't - Erm, kay.

this is my reasoning, it's not hogwash, there are reasons why cards are the value they are
jitte is not in the same category as top shelf competitive play cards like fetches, bob, goyf, DRS etc.

There are also plenty of reasons that lie outside the generalisations you have made, unless your point is to contend that DRS should be in Jitte range, which is ridiculous at this point in time. The combination of BoK being a terrible (and under-opened) set, Jitte being close to a BIS card, the lack of circulation on Jittes (this isn't speculation, go to any event in Japan for instance, and you'll find Jittes to be in painfully short supply; the same applies for Jp stores online), how old the card is, that Japanese was the accepted "pimp" language for those times and an artificial price spiral (people being willing to sell and pay more for Jitte because the only price points recently have been in the 7xx range) means Jitte now commands a certain price. You may think it overvalued, I contend that the market maintains irrationality better than you maintain liquidity.

Just to elaborate on price spirals. Let's take actual rarities. Summer basics went for $50 to $70 4 years ago. All it took was a bunch of auctions by Kidicarus on ebay and the premiums he gets from auctions, and prices on those immediately became $150 and up, and they have not looked back. Anyone who thought them overpriced after their jump may not have been mistaken, but the market doesn't stand for rationality -- it stands for expectation. Same with Jitte. Sell those you have if you believe them overpriced. I'll bump this in a year and a half for posterity.

[Parallex]

There are also plenty of reasons that lie outside the generalisations you have made, unless your point is to contend that DRS should be in Jitte range, which is ridiculous at this point in time. The combination of BoK being a terrible (and under-opened) set, Jitte being close to a BIS card, the lack of circulation on Jittes (this isn't speculation, go to any event in Japan for instance, and you'll find Jittes to be in painfully short supply; the same applies for Jp stores online), how old the card is, that Japanese was the accepted "pimp" language for those times and an artificial price spiral (people being willing to sell and pay more for Jitte because the only price points recently have been in the 7xx range) means Jitte now commands a certain price. You may think it overvalued, I contend that the market maintains irrationality better than you maintain liquidity.

Just to elaborate on price spirals. Let's take actual rarities. Summer basics went for $50 to $70 4 years ago. All it took was a bunch of auctions by Kidicarus on ebay and the premiums he gets from auctions, and prices on those immediately became $150 and up, and they have not looked back. Anyone who thought them overpriced after their jump may not have been mistaken, but the market doesn't stand for rationality -- it stands for expectation. Same with Jitte. Sell those you have if you believe them overpriced. I'll bump this in a year and a half for posterity.

By extension, does this mean that playable foreign foils (in popular languages) are more likely to rise exponentially compared to FBB duals?

[jamesh]

yes good idea to bump the thread in 18 months
i expect that all things being equal - not reprinting or major changes to builds involving the cards
jitte will increase a small amount
emrakul will increase a significant amount
the price gap that is already between the two cards will only widen

[Occam]

By extension, does this mean that playable foreign foils (in popular languages) are more likely to rise exponentially compared to FBB duals?

In a nutshell, they are more prone to, yes. You will not see cards with large open supplies rocket in price, whereas older foreign foils (and I struggle to find a better example than Jitte here) are much more prone to variance and heuristics. All it takes is a couple of sales at high price points, and the market tends to adjust towards those new watermarks based on nothing more than a herd price mentality.


yes good idea to bump the thread in 18 months
i expect that all things being equal - not reprinting or major changes to builds involving the cards -- this just invalidates all your conclusions; ceteris paribus in a game where an 18 month period can see people vacillate between JTMS being an unstoppable price juggernaut to a "sell", japanese LEDs doubling in value despite being a known quantity in Legacy, Progenitus going from fattie du jour to Emrakul's sidekick and where Snapcaster went from format buster to being tamed by DRS
jitte will increase a small amount
emrakul will increase a significant amount
the price gap that is already between the two cards will only widen

Without speculation, all that is needed to invalidate your conclusion is for SnT to get banned. You are arguing on a specifically engineered tangent to fit the data and inputs you desire, and refusing to accept the wider terms of the finances in the game. Let's stick to where you try and fail to show that Jitte is overvalued, not lean on the obvious banker that is Emrakul.

[apple713]

jitte will rise more in a stable fashion. Its more resistant to price fluctuations. Regardless of what you ban in legacy jitte will alway be worn by some creature in legacy.

emrakul will rise sharply and explosively. Its more susceptible to price fluctuations. (S&T getting banned...sneak attack will still be in play and stronghold gambit will keep it from plummeting)

[Stan]

All things equal Reserved List over non-Reserved List.

This legitimate concern, shared by most players who trade cards, is why they'll never rescind the reserved list. Yes, I know this post may derail the conversation. No, it's not an attempt to troll.

[Megadeus]

Just to elaborate on price spirals. Let's take actual rarities. Summer basics went for $50 to $70 4 years ago. All it took was a bunch of auctions by Kidicarus on ebay and the premiums he gets from auctions, and prices on those immediately became $150 and up, and they have not looked back. Anyone who thought them overpriced after their jump may not have been mistaken, but the market doesn't stand for rationality -- it stands for expectation. Same with Jitte. Sell those you have if you believe them overpriced. I'll bump this in a year and a half for posterity.

You know, I always wondered why his auctions close for so much. I mean I know he a very reputable seller, but a lot of the time I have seen some auctions close for above retail and it always puzzles me

[Secretly.A.Bee]

I think it's the buyer mentality on ebay. As an auction site, it gives bidders the "must-win" mindset. Pairing that with the average American's "need it now" attitude and you have a perfect storm - a shopper that will pay anything to win.

Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk

[davelin]

You know, I always wondered why his auctions close for so much. I mean I know he a very reputable seller, but a lot of the time I have seen some auctions close for above retail and it always puzzles me

I have noticed and wondered the exact same thing.

[Megadeus]

Like I said, I understand the whole reputable seller thing, but why go through the trouble of bidding and such on ebay when you can just get the same deal on tcg or SCg?

[Occam]

You know, I always wondered why his auctions close for so much. I mean I know he a very reputable seller, but a lot of the time I have seen some auctions close for above retail and it always puzzles me

It's likely down to a variety of factors, some of which are difficult to qualify, much less quantify. His reputation does go in his favour, and his business model is far more geared towards tapping the online retail market than something like SCG is. Some bidders also avoid loser's regret by bidding higher than they normally would in order to combine shipments etc. Same reason why some auctions end higher than active BINs on the same items -- not all bidding is irrational, and the auction style format taps that irrationality to maximise his profit utility over the bidder's, where traditional economic theory would have both bidder and seller sharing that.

That's a good reason why the vast majority of finance articles in mtg are nonsense -- outside of certain common sensical reasoning and basic psychology/ethics, they rarely highlight the fact that while there are reasons why the market is as such, a lot of trending is not necessarily (to borrow a phrase from the exotics trading vernacular) observable and explainable.