Abrupt Decay vs Lightning Bolt

[eirirlar]

I'm trying to reason about wether I should include Abrupt Decay or Lightning Bolt (or a mix in) my deck.

I'd like to gather a list of decks and evaluate wether Lightning Bolt or Abrupt Decay is the better card (or none of them, I should probably say, although I cannot think of a matchup where Lightning Bolt is a dead card). I'm currently running 4 Lightning Bolts.

If you wanna help me out, please fill in the amount of decays/bolts you'd play vs the different decks. Here's the current meta for reference:

Threshold UGr (91) 8.4%
Patriot (69) 6.4%
Elves (62) 5.7%
BUG Control (57) 5.3%
Sneak Attack (55) 5.1%
Death and Taxes (44) 4.1%
Miracle Control (43) 4.0%
Jund (43) 4.0%
Blade Control (42) 3.9%
Ad Nauseam Tendrils (41) 3.8%
Team America (41) 3.8%
Maverick (38) 3.5%
Reanimator (33) 3.0%
OmniTell (31) 2.9%
Goblins (29) 2.7%
Merfolks (26) 2.4%
UR Burn (26) 2.4%
Rogue (25) 2.3%
Deathblade (21) 1.9%
Dredge (21) 1.9%
MUD (21) 1.9%
The Rock (19) 1.8%
Nic Fit (17) 1.6%
Bant Aggro (15) 1.4%
Painters (14) 1.3%
Affinity (13) 1.2%
Burn (12) 1.1%
UGR Faeries (12) 1.1%

PS I intentionally did not post my decklist because I don't want this thread to be about any other cards than decays/bolts. If you're curious about it please look up the Waterfalls thread.

[Megadeus]

I think a better question is what is your deck doing? Both are good at removing smaller threats, though decay actually hits stuff like goyf and KOTR. Also it can take out equipment. If your deck is one that struggles with other random non creature permanents, I'd play decay. Bolt as primary removal is more for aggressive decks that can actually use bolt to help to quickly close out a game. The one better thing about bolt as well is that you can take out a DRS/Mom on the draw before your opponent gets them active. I'd say in general a mid range deck like waterfalls would rather have decay unless Mom is heavily represented in your meta.

[Asthereal]

please fill in the amount of decays/bolts you'd play vs the different decks.
From your post I understand you have 4 slots for these cards.
Let's first see which card is better against what.

Threshold UGr (91) 8.4% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable), but you probably want both
Patriot (69) 6.4% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable), but you probably want both
Elves (62) 5.7% Bolt > Decay (faster)
BUG Control (57) 5.3% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable)
Sneak Attack (55) 5.1% Both suck, but Bolt is better
Death and Taxes (44) 4.1% Bolt > Decay (faster, need to kill Mommy!)
Miracle Control (43) 4.0% Decay > Bolt (duh)
Jund (43) 4.0% About equally good. Bolt is fast and kills Bloodbraid / Decay kills Sylvan, Goyf
Blade Control (42) 3.9% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable)
Ad Nauseam Tendrils (41) 3.8% Both suck, but Bolt is better
Team America (41) 3.8% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable), but you really want both.
Maverick (38) 3.5% Bolt > Decay (faster, need to kill Mommy!) but you really want both
Reanimator (33) 3.0% Both suck, but Bolt is better
OmniTell (31) 2.9% Both suck, but Bolt is better
Goblins (29) 2.7% Bolt > Decay (faster, kills more guys)
Merfolks (26) 2.4% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable, kills them regardless of how many lords are in play)
UR Burn (26) 2.4% Bolt > Decay (faster)
Rogue (25) 2.3% I don't know a deck called Rogue, but if you mean "Rogue decks" as in weird decks, I feel Bolt is better in a vacuum
Deathblade (21) 1.9% Decay > Bolt (uncounterable)
Dredge (21) 1.9% Depends on what creatures you play (you'll need to kill you own guys every now and then)
MUD (21) 1.9% Decay > Bolt (kills more stuff)
The Rock (19) 1.8% Decay > Bolt (kills more stuff)
Nic Fit (17) 1.6% Both are meh. You want Terminate/Dreadbore here (if you're not playing white).
Bant Aggro (15) 1.4% Depends on the list, but I like both (Bolt killing mana dudes, Decay for Goyf/Knight)
Painters (14) 1.3% Both are good, but Decay destroys Moon effects better (resp. by tapping for BG)
Affinity (13) 1.2% Decay > Bolt (kills Plating)
Burn (12) 1.1% Bolt > Decay (faster)
UGR Faeries (12) 1.1% Is this a deck? Plays blue, so Decay is probably better. OTOH Faeries are small, so Bolt could be just fine.

In a vacuum, I feel Bolt is the better card, but in this meta, Decay seems the stronger choice.
I would consider playing Decay 4x in the main and Bolt 4x in the side, since there's a lot of matchups where you want both.

[eirirlar]

From your post I understand you have 4 slots for these cards.

Thanks for a thorough answer! Based on your conclusions vs each archetype, I've calculated the percentage of the given meta which one would like decay/bolt (I split the percentages where you were undecided, on Jund that is):

Threshold UGr (91) 8,4 Decay 8,4 0
Patriot (69) 6,4 Decay 6,4 0
Elves (62) 5,7 Bolt 0 5,7
BUG Control (57) 5,3 Decay 5,3 0
Sneak Attack (55) 5,1 Bolt 0 5,1
Death and Taxes (44) 4,1 Bolt 0 4,1
Miracle Control (43) 4 Decay 4 0
Jund (43) 2 Decay 2 0
Jund (43) 2 Bolt 0 2
Blade Control (42) 3,9 Decay 3,9 0
Ad Nauseam Tendrils (41) 3,8 Bolt 0 3,8
Team America (41) 3,8 Bolt 0 3,8
Maverick (38) 3,5 Bolt 0 3,5
Reanimator (33) 3 Bolt 0 3
OmniTell (31) 2,9 Bolt 0 2,9
Goblins (29) 2,7 Bolt 0 2,7
Merfolks (26) 2,4 Decay 2,4 0
UR Burn (26) 2,4 Bolt 0 2,4
Rogue (25) 2,3 Bolt 0 2,3
Deathblade (21) 1,9 Decay 1,9 0
Dredge (21) 1,9 Bolt 0 1,9
MUD (21) 1,9 Decay 1,9 0
The Rock (19) 1,8 Decay 1,8 0
Nic Fit (17) 1,6 Bolt 0 1,6
Bant Aggro (15) 1,4 Decay 1,4 0
Painters (14) 1,3 Decay 1,3 0
Affinity (13) 1,2 Decay 1,2 0
Burn (12) 1,1 Bolt 0 1,1
UGR Faeries (12) 1,1 Decay 1,1 0
43 45,9
0,4836895388 0,5163104612


So, Bolt is slightly favored over decay (51,6% vs 48.4%). Still not quite sure if that means I should play Lightning Bolt over decay or not, I guess it depends on what the first reply to this thread said about the rest of my deck.

[Finn]

So, Bolt is slightly favored over decay (51,6% vs 48.4%). Still not quite sure if that means I should play Lightning Bolt over decay or not, I guess it depends on...the rest of my deck.It means there are a lot of decks in Legacy that often do radically different things. A simple statistical analysis falls utterly short.

[Quasim0ff]

How about you test?

[Poron]

basically Abrut Decay is way better. That's why it 2 cc and 2 colors.

The answear is more about what's your list and mana base. If you can play Abrupt Decay as much as Bolt.. well AD all the way.

Lightning Bolt is better than AD just against planeswalkers, but.. you play Red, go REBs for Jace and Tezzeret

[Megadeus]

I think that if your plan is to use this open slot as a removal spell, the decay is just the better removal spell. They both hit low costing non shrouded creatures. Decay just kills more of them in addition to being good against random equipment, counter balance, or other things like sylvan library. Yes bolt is good vs jace, but decay is much better vs liliana, whereas bolt only kills jace in certain situations. Any other walker is almost irrelevant because the odds of you playing against tez or garruk or elspeth are generally not very high

[Rood]

Go with Lightning Bolts. With REBs in your side.

[Tormod]

I think the approach is overly complex. Look at your specific play environment and build for that. eg. If you see a lot of goyf, jitte, counter balance then abrupt is superior.
FWIW: I run 4 bolt and 2 Abrupt for bUrg

[EpicLevelCommoner]

Waterfalls? You mean that RUG/x Cascade deck?

In that case, may I ask what else you're running black for? If you're not running it for anything other than Decay, than Bolt all the way.

[Tormod]

Waterfalls? You mean that RUG/x Cascade deck?

In that case, may I ask what else you're running black for? If you're not running it for anything other than Decay, than Bolt all the way.

Waterfalls is BURG: Bloodbraid Elf and Shardless Agent

[EpicLevelCommoner]

Waterfalls is BURG: Bloodbraid Elf and Shardless Agent

My bad: didn't know they actually went to 4 colors all the way. I knew they ran both of the good Cascade creatures (BBE and Shardless) though.

[Megadeus]

I assume (though not certain), that you run a disruption suite similar to shardless with Thoughtseize and Forcew of Will?

[Stan]

basically Abrut Decay is way better. That's why it 2 cc and 2 colors.

The answear is more about what's your list and mana base. If you can play Abrupt Decay as much as Bolt.. well AD all the way.

Lightning Bolt is better than AD just against planeswalkers, but.. you play Red, go REBs for Jace and Tezzeret

Not if you're playing against a Liliana deck.

[Finn]

Not if you're playing against a Liliana deck.

Can't you just Bolt Liliana?

[trollking21]

Can't you just Bolt Liliana?

Bolting jace works because people 0 jace when he enters. Liliana comes in +1 both discard then you bolt and lily is at 1. Though that seems fairly minor that's all i can figure he is talking about.

[TsumiBand]

I don't think there's a really compelling reason to compare these two cards...?

Like there is a Venn diagram area of times when they are interchangeable but I don't think these are comparable even in a 'everything is a Time Walk' sort of way.

[Tormod]

Bolting jace works because people 0 jace when he enters. Liliana comes in +1 both discard then you bolt and lily is at 1. Though that seems fairly minor that's all i can figure he is talking about.

Preboard against decks with bolt, I like to +1 Jace.
Post boad If they don't REB counter him, I'll still +1 because they might have a bolt.

Bolting Liliana requires 2 resources (bolt and a critter in play) and for your opponent to play into it. very inefficient.

[Stan]

Can't you just Bolt Liliana?

Let me rephrase: a topdecked AD, drawn a turn, or even two, after Liliana became active kills it. Bolt is situational against it.