GP Paris 15-16/02/2014: metagame prediction and what deck to play?

[kingtk3]

I'm curious to know your predictions on how the meta of the GP Paris will be, and what deck would you play and for what reason.

I think that the number of deathrite shamans will decrease due to the recent printing of true-name nemesis, which would make reanimator a solid choice. However TNN is often played with stoneforge mystic for the equipment, so many decks will be playing rest in peace, possibily invalidating my precedent point.

What do you think the meta will be and what deck do you plan to play?

Discuss.

[Koby]

Consider:
European metagame is not similar to the (varied) American metagames. Typically, we see more X & Taxes as well as Storm combo. I imagine due to Julian's success with Elves, we'll see an uptick of that deck as well.

I predict lower levels of TNN-based Stoneblade as compared with American tournaments, but still enough to be a presence.

Otherwise, throw a dart onto the dartboard that is "Established" subforum and that's likely what you'll play in about 40-50% of your matches on Day 1.

I would most certainly play Tin Fins, as my record in France with the deck had been 9-6 from Bazaar of Moxen, and 7-2 in Day 1. :laugh:

[DragoFireheart]

Reanimator.

[TraxDaMax]

Play Tin Fins. :)

Verstuurd vanaf mijn GT-I9195 met Tapatalk

[YamiJoey]

Christ is Reanimator a deck in England. Also Elves.

I'll be playing UW Control with a mained RiP. BUG Delver saw a bit of an upswing around me recently, as well as Shardless, and it's good against basically every popular deck right now except [redacted], UWR True-Blade, S/T, and D/T. It even has fringe benefits against Elves in G1 stopping Deathrite from getting there, so it's never terrible.

It's a 2,000 player tournament, so I expect to face Dredge at least twice, because no-one attracts FTK decks like I do. I get FTK'd by Sneak all the time for Christ's sake.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

I'm curious to know your predictions on how the meta of the GP Paris will be...
http://www.random.org/

I'd wait for the B&R announcement. It'll be interesting if some major card would get (un)banned.

[Quasim0ff]

Christ is Reanimator a deck in England. Also Elves.

I'll be playing UW Control with a mained RiP. BUG Delver saw a bit of an upswing around me recently, as well as Shardless, and it's good against basically every popular deck right now except RUG Delver, UWR True-Blade, S/T, and D/T. It even has fringe benefits against Elves in G1 stopping Deathrite from getting there, so it's never terrible.

It's a 2,000 player tournament, so I expect to face Dredge at least twice, because no-one attracts FTK decks like I do. I get FTK'd by Sneak all the time for Christ's sake.

How is RiP NOT good against RUG delver? They have 1 threat.

[YamiJoey]

How is RiP NOT good against RUG delver? They have 1 threat.

I don't know what you're talking about...

[Quasim0ff]

I don't know what you're talking about...
With RiP they have a 3/2 delver, 0/1 Goyf and 1/1 mongoose. :)? That should be possible to handle...


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[Kayradis]

I wish I could go but life priorities changed recently.
I'd say play Spanish Inquisition, because nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition

[kingtk3]

I've taken doomsday in consideration, but I don't have enough practice to bring in such tournament

Sent from my mobile, forgive me for grammar errors.

[kingtk3]

With RiP they have a 3/2 delver, 0/1 Goyf and 1/1 mongoose. :)? That should be possible to handle...


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Just remember that rip's cib can be stiffled

Sent from my mobile, forgive me for grammar errors.

[Quasim0ff]

Just remember that rip's cib can be stiffled

Sent from my mobile, forgive me for grammar errors.
If you play your RiP into stifle, you deserve to lose anyway :D

[(nameless one)]

Just remember that rip's cib can be stiffled

Sent from my mobile, forgive me for grammar errors.

Are you the same guy that Stifled Julian Knab's Wirewood Symbiote?

[Zllig]

I wish I could go but life priorities changed recently.
I'd say play Spanish Inquisition, because nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition

No one expects it because it's awful and no one should be silly enough to play such a bad deck.

[Poron]

imho with all the Stoneforge around (and basically Plains then) Massacre can be a ground breaker. (Delver, Bob, SFM, TNN, Deathrite, Noble, Vendilion Clique, Snapmage, Venser, Thalia, well.. anything but Mongoose and Goyf?)

Esper and BUG builds might raise up a little. SOL goes in the same direction too...

[Anvil]

take em all by surprise and go Goblins :D

[Kayradis]

No one expects it because it's awful and no one should be silly enough to play such a bad deck.

When I played against it at GP DC on round 6 and my opponent was 3-2 I was shocked as well.
And I lost.
Full Tilt.
Dropped after and drank

[dunk]

If I'd go I would play monored Painter. Especially with byes I would expect a lot of targets for red blasts and a lot of people randomly folding by not playing around Blood Moon. Also, Ensnaring Bridge. A lot of people just won't know what to do, resulting in a lot of free wins.

Otherwise, UW control. Among the higher tier decks it doesn't have a bad matchup, which makes me believe it could be the best deck. Your biggest opponent will be stalling people. Just call a judge if your opponent doesn't do anything within 5 seconds - it's not like they have options anyway, they are just trying to draw the match. Oh and obv start playing slower once you are up 1-0. Because fetching is fucking hard.

[Koby]

If I'd go I would play monored Painter. Especially with byes I would expect a lot of targets for red blasts and a lot of people randomly folding by not playing around Blood Moon. Also, Ensnaring Bridge. A lot of people just won't know what to do, resulting in a lot of free wins.

Otherwise, UW control. Among the higher tier decks it doesn't have a bad matchup, which makes me believe it could be the best deck. Your biggest opponent will be stalling people. Just call a judge if your opponent doesn't do anything within 5 seconds - it's not like they have options anyway, they are just trying to draw the match. Oh and obv start playing slower once you are up 1-0. Because fetching is fucking hard.

5 seconds is a bit too low. 20-30 seconds with no game actions is a general guideline for Slow Play, but exceptions for lower still exist. If you think it's Slow Play, it's very likely Slow Play. Call a Judge.

[testing32]

No question, BUG Delver. And it's not close.

The only other deck I might consider is esperblade. Problem with esperblade is that it hasn't been tuned enough. The best list isn't known unlike BUG.

[dunk]

5 seconds is a bit too low. 20-30 seconds with no game actions is a general guideline for Slow Play, but exceptions for lower still exist. If you think it's Slow Play, it's very likely Slow Play. Call a Judge.

Yeah I was exaggerating a bit. Just saying - if your opponent is in Countertop lock or similar situations, be aware of them trying to stall.

[kingtk3]

Are you the same guy that Stifled Julian Knab's Wirewood Symbiote?

No, I'm not ^_^

[Einherjer]

I'll be there. I don't think I have to say anything about the deck I am going to play, though :D

Greetings

[adrieng]

Play dark depth, it is the best deck in the format !!
Not kidding.

[GoblinZ]

Play dark depth, it is the best deck in the format !!
Not kidding.

Doesn't it have a miserable match up against combo?

[Tylert]

I'll play Death and taxes, because it's the only deck I own (been playing it for 3 years before it was main stream).
As usual lots of people will be playing their pet deck.

However, i'm pretty sure that you'll face TNN decks / sneak and show / D&T decks at the highest tables.
so -1/-1 effects seem to be strong in this metagame.

Esperblade could be the thing to play as it as counter magic for combo and -1/-1 effects for TNN / D&T decks.

[Kayradis]

I'm thinking for D&T...
1 or 2 MD Runed Halo.........
Could be a thing

[Lans89]

I'll play Death and taxes, because it's the only deck I own (been playing it for 3 years before it was main stream).
As usual lots of people will be playing their pet deck.

However, i'm pretty sure that you'll face TNN decks / sneak and show / D&T decks at the highest tables.
so -1/-1 effects seem to be strong in this metagame.

Esperblade could be the thing to play as it as counter magic for combo and -1/-1 effects for TNN / D&T decks.

Esper is great but I end up getting too much draws.. 3 games is hard in some matchups. And no, that's not always because someone is playing too slow.. (and when my opponent does, I still can't do anything about it..)

[Megadeus]

No question, BUG Delver. And it's not close.

The only other deck I might consider is esperblade. Problem with esperblade is that it hasn't been tuned enough. The best list isn't known unlike BUG.

This. TA is ridiculous right now.

[Admiral_Arzar]

Lands.dec. Pack massive yard hate to deal with the graveyard decks that will be capitalizing on decreased DRS and yard hate in general. Crush the durdly midrange decks because that's what Lands always does.

[YamiJoey]

I feel like it TA loses the die roll to D&T it can be a very difficult game. They can get on board and protect their threats even through Decays very well. Their lack of CA and their use of Vial can leave them soft to Hymns, but Hymns against an aggro deck can be very iffy, You don't play stifle, and they play around 9-12 non-basics, so your denial plan lines up very well, but Thalia, Spirit of the Labyrinth, and Mother of Runes, comboed with instant-speed Flickerwisps, can make for a very interesting game.

I'd love to watch the coverage post-tournament and see plenty of TA Vs D&T, as I think it's an interesting and very skill intensive match-up for both players. I'll be sticking with my 1-mana Wraths, insane card advantage engines, and stable mana-base, though. I just hope that I can play it as well as I can build it. Spinning Tops gets quite tiring.

[kiblast]

Consider:
European metagame is not similar to the (varied) American metagames. Typically, we see more X & Taxes as well as Storm combo. I imagine due to Julian's success with Elves, we'll see an uptick of that deck as well.


Storm combo is played a bit more in europe, this is true, but generally speaking I think the metagame is more or less the same you can find in your tournaments. Blade decks, Patriot, Miracles, BUG Variants, Deathblade, Death and Taxes, Elves, and some combo (mainly Ant and Snt). This is the 90% of any meta worldwide basically.

For a tournament this big, there is no better choice than playing what you play best and you feel more comfortable with. You could play the most tuned and metagame-tailored deck in the room and still perform worse than the guy with the standard goblin build who knows perfectly how to play his deck.

I'd play Patriot or BUG Delver, just because they are the best decks in the format. Not that they are inherently uber good, they just have balanced match ups against most of the field.

I can see Lands. dec variants being the underdogs.

[Phelix]

Lands.dec. Pack massive yard hate to deal with the graveyard decks that will be capitalizing on decreased DRS and yard hate in general. Crush the durdly midrange decks because that's what Lands always does.
ma

If i had to play lands in this meta, id be playing 3 ensnaring bridge in the main, or something. the fact that we cant maze TNN is making a bunch of matchup worse.


It seems i cant go to Paris this time (damn you life, wife) but IF i had to go, id be playing UW tempo.

[kiblast]

It seems i cant go to Paris this time (damn you life, wife) but IF i had to go, id be playing UW tempo.

Do you mean an UW Stifle Brew or UW Vial ?

[Avez]

I'm a little torn between choosing SneakyShow and Punishing Jund. Sneaky is powerful and can win on turn 2 but looses to hate and usually has hard time against D&T. Jund on the other hand is very resiliant, handles midrange decks nicely but has poor matchups against combodecks like Sneaky and TES/ANT and so on. I have quite a bit experience with both decks but the Jund just seems the "right" one for me at this time. It saddens me that with a slower deck you loose the extra time between rounds to go outside, relax and maybe have something to eat.

[Tylert]

I'm a little torn between choosing SneakyShow and Punishing Jund. Sneaky is powerful and can win on turn 2 but looses to hate and usually has hard time against D&T. Jund on the other hand is very resiliant, handles midrange decks nicely but has poor matchups against combodecks like Sneaky and TES/ANT and so on. I have quite a bit experience with both decks but the Jund just seems the "right" one for me at this time. It saddens me that with a slower deck you loose the extra time between rounds to go outside, relax and maybe have something to eat.

What about Jund vs TNN decks?? and sneak and show vs TNN decks?
I'd take the one that has the best match up vs TNN decks :p

[prateta]

take em all by surprise and go Goblins :D

Yay for the goblins! :-D


You could play the most tuned and metagame-tailored deck in the room and still perform worse than the guy with the standard goblin build who knows perfectly how to play his deck.



Yeah until you get to the point where you meet skilled players with better decks. But anyway, goblins for the wins! I'm sensing a great comeback soon!

[Avez]

What about Jund vs TNN decks?? and sneak and show vs TNN decks?
I'd take the one that has the best match up vs TNN decks :p

I'd say that the Jund handles TNN better?

[Julian23]

Will probably be rocking 2-Land Belcher. :cool:

[EviL668-2]

Nourishing Lich!!! Be course it tend to get people!

[DragoFireheart]

Lands.dec. Pack massive yard hate to deal with the graveyard decks that will be capitalizing on decreased DRS and yard hate in general. Crush the durdly midrange decks because that's what Lands always does.

Auto-losing to SnT ala Blood Moon and giant monsters seems pretty bad.

I still say Reanimator. Great against SnT, too fast for DnT and TNNs, only really suffers against Miracle decks.

[deviant]

Will probably be rocking 2-Land Belcher. :cool:

Fine. I'll go with painter then.

[Finn]

Reanimator is either the best or close to the best matchup for DnT, depending on the build. It's one of the few slaughters DnT enjoys, and not typically close.

[DragoFireheart]

Reanimator is either the best or close to the best matchup for DnT, depending on the build. It's one of the few slaughters DnT enjoys, and not typically close.

Why is that?

[alphastryk]

Reanimator is either the best or close to the best matchup for DnT, depending on the build. It's one of the few slaughters DnT enjoys, and not typically close.

That was definitely my experience from the Reanimator side of things. One of the reasons I won't touch reanimator these days.

[Arsenal]

Why is that?

Having 3-4 maindeck Karakas is a thing. Revoker can also pre-emptively tag Grizzledaddy, making all of D&T's removal relatively live. Did I mention 3-4 maindeck Karakas?

[DragoFireheart]

Having 3-4 maindeck Karakas is a thing. Revoker can also pre-emptively tag Grizzledaddy, making all of D&T's removal relatively live. Did I mention 3-4 maindeck Karakas?

SnT has the same issue but Reanimator is arguably faster while also being good against SnT. Reanimator also doesn't suffer the issue of it's own Show and Tell dropping that Revoker into play for free and making Finn happy in the pants.

I'm not saying that Karakas is insignificant, but Reanimator doesn't run just Legendary drops.

[cogitoergosum]

Well D and T can definitely be a difficult for Reanimator, there is not much they can do against a resolved Inkwel Leviathan.

[Arsenal]

SnT has the same issue but Reanimator is arguably faster while also being good against SnT. Reanimator also doesn't suffer the issue of it's own Show and Tell dropping that Revoker into play for free and making Finn happy in the pants.

I'm not saying that Karakas is insignificant, but Reanimator doesn't run just Legendary drops.

Most Reanimator builds run exactly 1 non-Legendary creature maindeck (Tidespout Tyrant), and in order to make him any good, you need to be able to play multiple cheap spells in a turn... tough to do versus a deck running Thalia. SnT and Reanimator lose hard to DnT, there's no way around it.

Postboard, it may be a different story, but the creature suite for most Reanimator builds is 4 Grizzledaddy, 1 Elesh Norn, 1 Iona, 1 Tidespout Tyrant.

[DragoFireheart]

Most Reanimator builds run exactly 1 non-Legendary creature maindeck (Tidespout Tyrant),

WotC really needs to print a good non-Legendary creature for Reanimator.

[Arsenal]

WotC really needs to print a good non-Legendary creature for Reanimator.

They've printed a ton, but none of them are maindeckable because they're all even more narrow than the Legendary creatures that are currently run in Reanimator. That's why you see a bunch of them relegated to the sideboard for specific matchups... which doesn't help you at all Game 1 versus DnT when they're keeping 99% of your dudes off the table and beating you down with Equipped hatebears of death.

[DragoFireheart]

Inkwell Leviathan might be a decent main-deck choice due to everyone running TNN. Only really cares about Terminus, sac effects and Verdict.


which doesn't help you at all Game 1 versus DnT when they're keeping 99% of your dudes off the table and beating you down with Equipped hatebears of death.

SnT has pretty much the same kinds of issues that Reanimator would have DnT but you don't see it being sent to Tier-2 status.

[Arsenal]

Inkwell Leviathan might be a decent main-deck choice due to everyone running TNN. Only really cares about Terminus, sac effects and Verdict.



SnT has pretty much the same kinds of issues that Reanimator would have DnT but you don't see it being sent to Tier-2 status.

Although Reanimator runs maindeck Show and Tell (and more in the sideboard), it's primary method of cheating a fatty into play is still using the graveyard. I suspect that sideboard splash hate (oh hai, this Rest in Peace was for Dredge, but I guess I'll board it in versus Reanimator too!) may have something to do with it. Although, Reanimator isn't tier 2, imo.

[DragoFireheart]

Although, Reanimator isn't tier 2, imo.

As long as it's chilling in a non-DTB section I call it tier 2. But yes, RiP is a bitch.

[Finn]

Well, if Reanimator goes turn or 2 Reanimate on Griz, then you zap it with Karakas, it's a real gamble for them to draw the cards. They may not draw an Entomb. Then they can't really do anything at all. Even Inkwell is not great, as DnT races it pretty well if they used Reanimate. Thalia makes things complicated. Finally, as if it was not bad enough, a lot of players have Celestial Flare for TNN now.

[DragoFireheart]

Well, if Reanimator goes turn or 2 Reanimate on Griz, then you zap it with Karakas, it's a real gamble for them to draw the cards. They may not draw an Entomb. Then they can't really do anything at all. Even Inkwell is not great, as DnT races it pretty well if they used Reanimate. Thalia makes things complicated. Finally, as if it was not bad enough, a lot of players have Celestial Flare for TNN now.

Regardless, it still looks like a deck that can do well in the current meta, Miracles and DnT aside.

[Finn]

Oops. Not Entomb. Exhume I meant. They don't have enough life to reanimate again.

[YamiJoey]

As long as it's chilling in a non-DTB section I call it tier 2. But yes, RiP is a bitch.

That makes you a bad player, so I'll just go ahead and ignore you.

[Higgs]

I try to do the same thing as the guy passes expert format judgement in one thread and asks noob questions in the other, but frigging quotes bypass the ignore list. My pick would probably be Team America in the current meta and for a long tournament.

[DragoFireheart]

Some of you guys take this stuff too seriously if you have to put someone on an ignore list.

I gave an opinion, Finn (and others) gave well constructed arguments, and I conceded I was partly wrong. If that makes me a terrible player then I'd hate to be a good player.

[dunk]

Otherwise, UW control. Among the higher tier decks it doesn't have a bad matchup, which makes me believe it could be the best deck.

So, 3 UW are the sole 10-0 decks? Def time to ban Brainstorm. And Top. And while we are up to it, Tnn and Snt as well. I would like my Legacy to play like Modern with Fow and Wasteland!

[Barook]

So, 3 UW are the sole 10-0 decks? Def time to ban Brainstorm. And Top. And while we are up to it, Tnn and Snt as well. I would like my Legacy to play like Modern with Fow and Wasteland!
You forgot to mention Delver.

[dunk]

Delver without Brainstorm is a very fair card ;)

[kiblast]

I honestly don't understand why you need to derail every thread into a blue-dominance-themed thread. Please stop now before it gets serious.
At least you aren't hijacking the Chicas <3 thread.

[Barook]

I honestly don't understand why you need to derail every thread into a blue-dominance-themed thread.
The Delver/TNN/Miracles circlejerk is boring as hell. And that's what we're seeing the entire time with a few exceptions.

[kiblast]

The Delver/TNN/Miracles circlejerk is boring as hell. And that's what we're seeing the entire time with a few exceptions.

It's boring to you. I love blue centric formats. But let's move on.

[dunk]

If I'd go I would play monored Painter. Especially with byes I would expect a lot of targets for red blasts and a lot of people randomly folding by not playing around Blood Moon. Also, Ensnaring Bridge. A lot of people just won't know what to do, resulting in a lot of free wins.

Otherwise, UW control. Among the higher tier decks it doesn't have a bad matchup, which makes me believe it could be the best deck. Your biggest opponent will be stalling people. Just call a judge if your opponent doesn't do anything within 5 seconds - it's not like they have options anyway, they are just trying to draw the match. Oh and obv start playing slower once you are up 1-0. Because fetching is fucking hard.

If anyone wants recommendations what to run at your next gp just message me btw (ok, I clearly was wrong on monored Painter, didn't even consider a possible white splash).

[HSCK]

12 Jaces, 5 TNN in the top 8!? It's like 2010 all over again, #banjace.

[tsabo_tavoc]

12 Jaces, 5 TNN in the top 8!? It's like 2010 all over again, #banjace.

28 Brainstorms, apparently :laugh: The only deck without any has 7 red blasts MD?